FRESNO

A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014–2015 | FRESNO METRO AREA CLOSE-UP

A P O R TR A I T OF CA L IFOR N I A 2 0 1 4 – 2 0 1 5

FRESNO

METRO AREA CLOSE-UP San Jose (7.08) San Francisco (6.72)

Oxnard–Thousand Oaks (5.62) San Diego (5.59) Sacramento (5.47) Los Angeles (5.44)

3.96 HD INDEX

79.1

LIFE EXPECTANCY (years)

3.68

EDUCATION INDEX

$22,676 MEDIAN EARNINGS

The Fresno metropolitan statistical area ranks second-to-last among the ten most populous metro areas in California in terms of well-being and access to opportunity, as measured by the American Human Development Index. Its +uman 'evelopment (HD) Index score of 3.96 out of a possible 10 is well below the state average. The Fresno metro area, with a population of almost million, coQWDLQV only Fresno County anG one principal city, Fresno.

Riverside– San Bernardino (4.59) Stockton (4.34)

THIS METRO AREA CLOSE-UP IS A COMPANION TO A PORTRAIT OF CALIFORNIA 2014Ú2015, AVAILABLE AT WWW.MEASUREOFAMERICA.ORG.

Fresno (3.96) MEASUREOFAMERIC A of the Social Science Research Council


Fresno Today HOW HAS FRESNO FARED SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION? Just before the Great Recession, Fresno’s rank on the Human Development Index was the same as today, second-to-last. Fresno, along with five other major metro areas, saw a decline in well-being and access to opportunity. This decline was mostly due to a drop in earnings. Median earnings fell by $2,298 between 2006–2008 and 2010–2012.

The American Human Development Index The American Human Development (HD) Index for California is a composite measure of well-being and access to opportunity made up of health, education, and earnings indicators. The Index is expressed on a scale from 0 to 10.

Human Development before and after the Great Recession

San Jose

+0.13

San Francisco

+0.10

Los Angeles

+0.08

Bakersfield

–0.01 A Long and Healthy Life is measured using life expectancy at birth, calculated using 2010–2012 mortality data from the California Department of Public Health and A population data from the Long and U.S.Healthy Census Bureau. Life

Access to Knowledge is measured with school enrollment for those ages 3 to 24, and educational degree attainment for those 25 and older, with 2010–2012 data from theAccess AmericantoCommunity Survey,Knowledge U.S. Census Bureau.

A Decent Standard of Living is measured using median earnings of all full- and part-time workers 16 years and older from the American Community U.S. A Survey, Decent Census Bureau, of 2010–2012. Standard Living

–0.02 –0.03 –0.04

+0.05 Riverside– San Bernardino Sacramento

Fresno San Diego

I N D I CATOR S

Life expectancy at birth

Educational degree attainment

School enrollment

Median earnings

–0.11 –0.15

+ Health INDEX

Stockton

CHANGE IN HD INDEX

+

Education INDEX

Oxnard– Thousand Oaks

Income INDEX

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American Human Development INDEX WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

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Human Development by Neighborhood Cluster in Fresno

HD INDEX

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (years)

LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL (%)

AT LEAST BACHELOR’S DEGREE (%)

GRADUATE OR PROFESSIONAL DEGREE (%)

SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (%)

CALIFORNIA

5.39

81.2

18.5

30.9

11.3

78.5

30,502

FRESNO METRO AREA

3.96

79.1

27.1

19.2

6.1

76.2

22,676

MEDIAN EARNINGS (2012 dollars)

1. Fresno City North

5.82

81.6

9.3

34.2

11.0

81.4

32,064

2. Clovis City

5.48

78.5

10.4

30.7

10.1

79.8

35,228

3. Sanger, Reedley & Parlier Cities

4.01

80.6

31.1

17.9

6.2

78.2

21,313

4. Selma, Kerman & Coalinga Cities

3.33

80.7

43.6

9.4

3.5

73.6

19,561

5. Fresno City Southwest

3.20

76.9

30.0

13.4

4.0

74.2

20,581

6. Fresno City East Central

2.89

76.7

33.3

11.5

3.3

72.6

19,317

7. Fresno City Southeast

2.79

78.1

39.3

10.2

2.4

73.0

17,821

Source: Measure of America calculations using California Department of Public Health 2010–2012 mortality data and U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates and American Community Survey 2010–2012.

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT NEIGHBORHOOD BY NEIGHBORHOOD The Fresno metro area is divided by the U.S. Census Bureau into seven neighborhood clusters, each with a population between one hundred thousand and two hundred thousand residents. The HD Index scores of the different neighborhood clusters in the Fresno metro area vary, from 5.82 in Fresno City North to only 2.79 in Fresno City Southeast. Fresno City East Central, with the second-lowest earnings of all Fresno metro area neighborhoods, has the lowest life expectancy, almost five years less than the life expectancy in Fresno City North. However, Fresno City East Central is not that unique in its lower-than-average life expectancy. In fact, all neighborhoods in the Fresno metro area, save Fresno City North, have life expectancies well below the California average.

Racial and Ethnic Makeup of the Fresno Metro Area

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT BY RACE AND ETHNICITY Another lens for understanding access to opportunity is race and ethnicity. Wellbeing in Fresno varies across racial and ethnic groups. African Americans have the lowest levels of well-being on the HD Index, at 2.96. In fact, the African American Index score in Fresno is the lowest among California metro areas with a population of African Americans over 40,000. Whites in Fresno rank highest, with a score of 5.35. However this score is still lower than the California average for all people of 5.39. In short, even the top-performing group in Fresno is still falling behind. The racial and ethnic profile of the Fresno metro area diverges from that of California as a whole. Fresno has a significantly larger Latino population and smaller Asian American population, as proportions of their total populations. Half of Fresno's population is Latino, and only 9.5 percent is Asian American. WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

50.8% Latinos 32.2% Whites 9.5% Asian Americans 4.8% African Americans or More Races 2.3% Two or Some Other Race 0.5% Native Americans

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No major California metro area has a sufficiently large Native American population to allow for reliable calculations of the HD Index at this level, unfortunately; the HD Index score for Native Americans in the state is 4.51.

Human Development by Neighborhood Cluster

SIERRA NATIONAL FOREST

Fresno MENDOTA WILDLIFE AREA

San Joaquin

5

Reedley

HD INDEX 6.82–9.26 5.76–6.81 4.77–5.75 4.00–4.76 2.14–3.99 Parkland 0

0

WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

12.5

12.5

25 Miles

25 Miles

N

N

4


Fresno Forecast: The Next Generation Although HD Index scores are a good proxy for potential risks to child well-being, the HD Index uses a set of indicators that chart the life course of adults and are therefore less suited to capturing how the next generation will fare. Additional indicators can help round out the picture. Below are a set of faster-moving indicators that shed light on the overall physical and social conditions that children and youth face as they grow up in Fresno today. These factors, which operate “behind the scenes,” affect the degree to which children and teens in Fresno are sheltered from harm, have their fundamental needs met, and are able to build the capabilities required to flourish in the future. The rate of children born under 5.5 pounds in Fresno is the highest of all the California metro areas. This rate is likely related to the fact one in five Fresno residents lack health insurance. Air quality in Fresno is also a concern. In 2013, 109 days, the equivalent of more than two days a week, were unsafe for children to play outside. Fresno’s high school dropout rate is also problematic. At almost 15 percent, it is the second highest of all the metro areas (Bakersfield’s is the highest). The rate of disconnected youth, at almost 20 percent, is the third-highest of all the major metro areas in the state. Violent crime is also high in Fresno. At 540 violent incidents per 100,000 residents, Fresno’s crime rate is the fourth-highest of all the major metro areas in the state (Stockton is first, Bakersfield is second, and San Francisco is third). In addition to health and safety concerns, finding a decent job is a struggle for Fresno residents. At almosit 11 percent, the unemployment rate in Fresno is highest of all the major metro areas in the state. For those lucky enough to find a full-time position, almost three out of ten earn less than $25,000 a year, the highest percentage of low-wage workers across the ten major California metro areas. Overall, health, safety, educational attainment and employment are serious concerns for children and youth in Fresno. Fresno currently ranks second-to-last on the HD Index among the major metro areas in California. Given today’s conditions, without significant policy interventions, it is unlikely that the next generation of Fresno residents will be able to improve their relative position in the near future.

WWW.MEASUR EOFA M ERICA . O R G

These indicators track important risks that children and youth are facing as they grow up in Fresno today.

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Forecast Indicators: The Next Generation

RANKING (BASED ON HD INDEX)

NEWBORNS WITH LOW BIRTH WEIGHT

AIR QUALITY

(% of births less than 5.5 lbs.)

(# of unhealthy days per year)

NO HEALTH INSURANCE (% of residents)

GREEN SPACE (square miles per 100,000 residents)

DISCONNECTED YOUTH

PRESCHOOL ENROLLMENT

HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT

(% of 3 and 4 year olds)

(% of cohort)

(% 16-24 year olds not working or in school)

1. San Jose 2. San Francisco

58.7

11.1

11.6

60.3

12.9

12.3

3. Oxnard

51.7

10.7

10.4



6.9 7.0

8 7

11.9 11.9

26 18

3. Oxnard

6.2

5

16.3

121

4. San Diego

6.5

19

17.3

65

4. San Diego

49.3

9.2

11.9

5. Sacramento

6.7

35

13.4

80

5. Sacramento

49.2

9.5

14.3

6. Los Angeles

7.1

80

21.4

12

6. Los Angeles

53.6

11.4

14.1

7. Riverside–San Bernardino

6.8

130

20.8

418


37.6

11.2

18.2

8. Stockton

7.0

30

17.5

3

8. Stockton

40.7

12.3

21.0

9. Fresno 10. Bakersfield

7.8 7.0

109 100

20.4 20.7

256 242


38.4 34.9

14.6 16.2

19.4 24.2

Sources: California Department of Public Health, 2010 Birth Records; Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality Index Report 2013; U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2010– 2012, Table DP03; California Protected Areas Database.

UNEMPLOYMENT RANKING (BASED ON HD INDEX)

(% 16 years old and older)

EARNING UNDER $25,000/YEAR

INCOME INEQUALITY

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2010–2012, Table S1401 and analysis of 2010–2012 PUMA microdata; California Department of Education cohort dropout rate.


AFFORDABLE HOUSING (% who spend less than 30% of income on housing)

AVERAGE COMMUTE TIME

VIOLENT CRIMES

(minutes/day)

(per 100,000 residents)

58.5

26

274

55.2

30

551 198

(% of full-time workers)

(gini)


5.3

13.1

0.47

5.0

13.4

0.49


3. Oxnard

5.9

21.0

0.44

3. Oxnard

53.9

25

4. San Diego

5.8

20.4

0.47

4. San Diego

50.9

25

374

5. Sacramento

6.7

17.7

0.45

5. Sacramento

54.7

25

441

6. Los Angeles

7.2

24.8

0.49

6. Los Angeles

48.6

29

393


8.0

23.8

0.44


51.3

31

369

8. Stockton

10.3

20.0

0.46

8. Stockton

53.2

30

889


10.5 10.1

29.4 29.0

0.48 0.46


54.2 57.6

23 24

540 579

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2012, Tables S2001 and B19083.

WWW.MEASUR EOFAM ERICA . O R G

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2012, Tables S2503 and S0802; FBI Uniform Crime Reports 2012.

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Human Development in Fresno at a Glance Fresno in the National Context

Human Development in California's Ten Most Populous Metro Areas

Delano McFarland Wasco Shafter Bakersfield

Arvin Taft

San Jose (7.08)

Maricopa

5.07

UNITED STATES HD INDEX

5.39

CALIFORNIA HD INDEX

ALL Neighborhood Clusters

5.82

Fresno City North, Fresno County

5.48

Clovis City, Fresno County

4.01

Sanger, Reedley & Parlier Cities, Fresno County

3.33

Selma, Kerman & Coalinga Cities, Fresno County

3.20

Fresno City Southwest, Fresno County

2.89

Fresno City East Central, Fresno County

2.79

Fresno City Southeast, Fresno County

3.96

San Francisco (6.72)

FRESNO HD INDEX

Race/Ethnicity 10 (HD INDEX MAXIMUM)

Oxnard–Thousand Oaks (5.62) San Diego (5.59) Sacramento (5.47)

Whites

Los Angeles (5.44)

5.35

Asian Americans 4.95

Latinos 3.23

African American 2.96

0 (HD INDEX MINIMUM)

Riverside– San Bernardino (4.59) Stockton (4.34)

Fresno (3.96) Bakersfield (3.69)

Measure of America is a nonpartisan project, founded in 2007, of the Social Science Research Council. It creates easy-to-use yet methodologically sound tools for understanding well-being and opportunity in America and stimulates fact-based dialogue about these issues. Through hard copy and online reports, interactive maps, and custom-built dashboards, Measure of America works closely with partners to breathe life into numbers, using data to identify areas of need, pinpoint levers of change, and track progress over time. For policymaker and press inquiries: Eric Henderson, Chief of Advocacy and Media [email protected], (718) 517-3606.

MEASUREOFAMERICA of the Social Science Research Council