Future Global Shocks: Pandemics - OECD.org

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IFP/WKP/FGS(2011)2

MULTI-DISCIPLINARY ISSUES INTERNATIONAL FUTURES PROGRAMME

OECD/IFP Project on “Future Global Shocks”

“Future Global Shocks: Pandemics” Harvey Rubin, MD, PhD University of Pennsylvania

This report was prepared by Harvey Rubin as a contribution to the OECD project “Future Global Shocks”. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

Contact persons: Pierre-Alain Schieb: +33 (0)1 45 24 82 70, [email protected] Anita Gibson: +33 (0)1 45 24 96 27, [email protected]

14th January 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION: .......................................................................................................................................... 4 II. HOW 2009 H1N1 EMERGED................................................................................................................ 11 III. ARE THERE EXISTING MANAGEMENT STRUCTURES THAT HELP PREPARE, MITIGATE AND RESPOND IN THE EVENT OF A PANDEMIC? ..................................................... 16 IV. WHAT IS THE STATE OF THE ART REGARDING RISK ANALYSIS, POTENTIAL IMPACTS, EXISTING MODELS? ................................................................................................................ 20 V. RISK ASSESSMENT PART 1: ................................................................................................................. 22 VI. RISK ASSESSMENT PART 2: VULNERABILITY AND LOSS: HOW LIKELY IS A PANDEMIC GLOBAL SHOCK AND WHAT COULD BE THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES?29 VII. RESEARCH RECOMMENDATION: DESIGNING THE OPTIMAL STRATEGY FOR RISK COMMUNICATION –FINDING TRUST IN INFORMED LEADERSHIP AND THE CROWD. ... 47 VIII. LESSONS FROM OTHER OUTBREAKS: ........................................................................................ 54 VIII. LESSONS FROM OTHER OUTBREAKS: ........................................................................................ 54 The Global HIV/AIDS Pandemic .......................................................................................................... 54 SARS ............................................................................................................................................................... 55 IX. THE KNOCK-ON EFFECT OF ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE. ........................................................ 57 IX. THE KNOCK-ON EFFECT OF ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANCE. ........................................................ 57 Who Suffers? ............................................................................................................................................... 57 What is being done? Antibacterial agents ....................................................................................... 58 X. LESSONS LEARNED CONCERNING CONTROL POINTS: INCREASING SOCIETAL RESILIENCE WHILE MAXIMIZING RESOURCES PRIOR TO, DURING AND AFTER A PANDEMIC. A PROPOSED SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM............................................................. 63 X. LESSONS LEARNED CONCERNING CONTROL POINTS: INCREASING SOCIETAL RESILIENCE WHILE MAXIMIZING RESOURCES PRIOR TO, DURING AND AFTER A PANDEMIC. A PROPOSED SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM............................................................. 63 XI. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM ..................................................................... 69 XI. AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM ..................................................................... 69 XII. LESSONS FROM THE PAST ................................................................................................................ 79 RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................................................................................. 81 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................