Future trends and a vision for a sustainable ... - Forum for the Future

5 downloads 270 Views 6MB Size Report
website at www.sustainable-cotton.net. This report sets out to .... gamation of the best sustainability indicators from
Future trends and a vision for a sustainable cotton industry — July 2012

Foreword Introduction The Cotton Futures scenarios: Factors shaping the future The Cotton Futures Scenario Summaries The Cotton Futures Vision Conclusion Acknowledgements

Cotton, a key global commodity, currently faces many challenges and its future is uncertain. Once appreciated by consumers as “natural” and “better than synthetics”, and praised by politicians as a development tool for rural areas in the global South, today the fibre is often associated with environmental damage and social injustice. Grown in more than 80 countries by 100 million farmers on 33 million hectares of land, cotton today supplies approximately one third of the global fibre demand. The crop’s importance, therefore, cannot be neglected. Against that background the key question is, are cotton and sustainability friends or foes? There are arguments for both answers. Cotton production can be connected to excess water consumption, high levels of chemical use and low levels of wealth for cotton farmers. At the same time, much attention has been paid to cotton cultivation by governments and key industry stakeholders over the recent years, and different programmes, initiatives and standards have been set up to tackle sustainability issues. Though there is no ‘one-size-fitsall’ solution to the

challenges in cotton production, these different approaches have proven that cotton and sustainability can become friends. Now is the time to lay the groundwork for sustainability, and raise awareness amongst the general public and the industry that cotton can provide sustainable livelihoods across the supply chain as well as preserve natural resources. The Aid by Trade Foundation with Cotton Made in Africa, TransFair e.V. (Fairtrade Germany) with Fairtrade certified cotton, and other organisations that promote organic cotton have identified that there is a need to communicate the issues and solutions around the sustainability of cotton. These organisations have set competition aside, and joined forces as the Initiatives for Sustainable Cotton (ISC), to strengthen cooperation around sustainable cotton production and consumption. The German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) is financially supporting their ambition. The ISC team has jointly developed a set of tools to help increase awareness of the benefits of sustainable cotton among the industry, its stakeholders, and consumers. The collaboration with Forum for the

Future forms part of this. Together, we have developed thought-provoking scenarios that aim to foster discussion within the industry and open up opportunities for stakeholders to network and collaborate to promote sustainability. As part of our awareness-raising efforts we are launching the results of this work (both through this report and an additional Workshop Toolkit, both available on the website) at events including the Ethical Fashion Show during Berlin Summer Fashion Week 2012. Finally, we have created an animated film, targeted at the end-consumer, that outlines the problems and solutions for sustainable cotton production, and consumption, in a clear and compelling way. Harry Cotton - our brand icon - will guide you through: the animated film; this publication;

the workshop toolkit’ and the Initiatives website at www.sustainable-cotton.net. This report sets out to communicate the certain and uncertain factors impacting the future of cotton, the summaries of the scenarios we built with experts to look at what the future might look like for cotton, and most importantly our vision for a sustainable cotton industry. We hope you find The Future of Cotton a thoughtprovoking read, and, more importantly, that it inspires you to support sustainable cotton production and consumption. We invite you to work with us to create a world where cotton is as an important and sustainable fibre crop, and a world where we would all like to be working and living in 2025 and beyond.

Stephan Engel and Tina Stridde (Aid by Trade Foundation),

Dieter Overath (Director TransFair e.V.)

and Alexandra Perschau (Future for Cotton)

We know that the cotton industry faces a number of challenges including; rising input prices; competition for land to feed a growing population; adverse climate change impacts on cotton farming; and competition from synthetics, to name but a few. Over the past nine months, a coalition of Initiatives for Sustainable Cotton (representing organic, Fairtrade and Cotton made in Africa (CmiA) cotton) have been working together with Forum for the Future to develop future scenarios and a vision for a sustainable cotton industry. These scenarios are designed to help raise awareness of the case for sustainable cotton and, along with the vision, to create a platform for action. The Cotton Futures scenarios aim to help the industry secure a competitive and sustainable future by preparing for key future challenges and opportunities. They are not predictions, but tools to help people think about different future possibilities. The scenarios have been used as part of this project to inspire people’s thoughts about the future of the cotton industry and allow them to creatively and collaboratively create a vision for sustainable cotton. In turn, the Cotton Futures vision helps create a clear end goal that the whole industry, and its supporters and influencers, can work towards.

All of these outputs are meant to be tools for practical action. They are publicly available, and they come with a workshop toolkit that provides guidance on how to use the scenarios and the vision. We invite you to use them as a method of planning for a more sustainable future within your own organisation or coalition.

Cotton Futures uses four scenarios created for Fashion Futures1 as the basis to explore the future of the cotton industry. We adapted the Fashion Futures scenarios using desk research and interviews with key industry experts to understand the significant future factors driving change in the cotton industry. We then prioritised these factors through a series of workshops, identifying how certain or uncertain their outcomes were for the future, as well as their level of potential impact on the cotton industry. Finally, in order to develop the Cotton Futures scenarios, we examined these prioritised factors in the context of the Fashion Futures scenarios framework. This axis was developed by identifying the most important and uncertain factors and plotting them against each other on the axis. This allowed us to examine the other certain and uncertain factors in the context of this axis. 1. How connected is the world?

Connected: Where economic globalisation has expanded further, trade barriers have been lowered, communications are more united and global cultures are more similar.

Fragmented: Where globalisation has gone into reverse, there is more protectionism, long-distance trade is declining and regional identities are stronger.

2. How fast do society and its fashions change?

Fast: Where the speed of change has accelerated: in media and communications; in flows of financial capital; and in the pace at which people live their lives.

Slow: Where the rate of consumption has reversed; flows of financial capital are slower and lower; and cultures change more gradually.

Connected

Political collaboration and global trades in a world where slow and sustainable is fashionable

High tech systems deliver for a speed-obsessed global shoper

Slow

Fast Resource crises constrain consumption in a local community focused world

Fast consumption in global cultural blocs

Fragmented

ctors a f n i a t r e c y Ke e impacting th tton o c f o e r u t u f

The more certain factors are the globally recognised trends which feature in all the Cotton Futures scenarios, although their emphasis may vary, as might the societal response to them. These are the factors we need to prepare for in any given scenario.

Population Growth

Resource scarcity

Increasingly extreme climate change impacts

Spread of (ICT) Information Communications Technology

Over the next 15 years, it is likely that there will be more than a billion extra people living on our planet, with global population growing from 6.9 billion to reach 8.1 billion by 2025.2 Population in developing countries is expected to rise rapidly, whilst population in the developed world will remain largely stable.3 This will have significant impacts on the labour force and nature of the demand for textiles.

Against the backdrop of population growth, the key resources needed to support that growth are becoming more scarce. For example, 20,000 – 50,000 sq km of arable land is lost each year through land degradation.4 By 2025, 1.8 billion people are expected to be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity. As resource scarcity 5 increases, resource costs are likely to become increasingly high and volatile, with massive impacts on the cost of production and supply security. High oil prices, for example, will have a dramatic impact across the clothing supply chain, with a knock-on effect on the cost of polyester (a by-product of the oil industry), pesticides, fertilisers and transport. Cotton production is also likely to become increasingly constrained as water becomes more scarce and pesticides more expensive and regulated.

We have used the upper end of the 2007 IPCC6 estimates for the climate in 2025 in our scenarios, as the latest science suggests that the lower end of these estimates was conservative.7Agriculture is very vulnerable to climate change impacts, cotton production included, and it is likely to suffer from the predicted rising temperatures, decreased soil moisture and more extreme weather events and flooding.8 Although effects will vary by region, the overall impact of climate change on global agriculture is likely to be negative. This is likely to exacerbate food security concerns in the future, possibly leading to different land use priorities.

ICT is spreading at an exponential pace. In 1984 there were 1000 devices in the world capable of accessing the Internet, today there are approximately 1-2 billion. It is predicted that, by 2015, mobile shopping will account for $163 billion in sales worldwide: 12% of global ecommerce turnover.9 Through the increased sophistication and spread of ICT, tracking product supply chains is becoming more accurate, less expensive, and easier than ever. This increase in the adoption of ICT is shifting consumer expectations, with more demands for transparency and information about products and services.

in Key uncerta ng cti factors impa tton f co o e r u t u f e h t

There are some factors, on the other hand, which will have a big impact on the future of cotton, but they have highly uncertain outcomes. We have articulated these below as questions, which we address across the scenarios. They play out differently in each scenario and highlight the different possible outcomes the industry and its stakeholders might have to contend with.

How will the industry respond to resource scarcity, high / volatile input costs, and climate change? Where will cotton be grown and consumed in 2025? Will ICT change cotton production? What type of cotton will farmers grow in the future? Will there be more or fewer people involved in cotton production? How content are farmers and everyone else? How much cotton will be demanded and produced in the future? How will the industry be structured in the future? How volatile is the price of cotton? What happens to cotton garments at end of their life?

The world is …moralistic, low carbon, tightly regulated with sustainable lifestyles. The cotton industry structure …more interconnected and collaborative. Brands and retailers are investing more in cotton farming. Many cotton traders have become integrated. The key technologies used in the cotton industry are…‘appropriate’, tailored to the conditions specific to each region. GM technology for cotton is illegal. Farmers use advanced crop rotation techniques and other sustainable practices. ICT helps consumers get transparent information about all stages of cotton production. Cotton is grown… in regions most suited to growing it. Strongest production ‘hubs’ are in India, Africa, North America and Turkey.

The most popular type of cotton is… ‘SustainGrade’: cotton which meets an amalgamation of the best sustainability indicators from previous standards on sustainability. The concept of quality has evolved to take social and environmental factors into account. Cotton production levels are…down overall, but the quality of produced cotton is significantly higher, commanding higher prices, so producers make higher margins. The industry continues to be successful. The industry is responding to climate change and resource issues… proactively, and through internationally coordinated efforts. Seed research and irrigation technology is shared across the globe.

Cotton demand and consumption is… more sustainable. Despite lower overall consumption levels, demand for cotton is high as it can be grown sustainably and is a natural fibre. Cotton prices are… high. Consumers are willing to pay more, because they value cotton above other fibres. International agreements on commodity prices mean farmers can have greater certainty on forward prices. At end of life, cotton is… recycled in an efficient, streamlined way.

FARMING Early and sucessful development of non land intensive renewable energy mean land is not needed to grow biofuel/biomass. Land is prioritised for the production of food, over cotton growing. GM technology is illegal. Shift to heritage seed varieties.

END LIFE When fine cotton products reach the end of their useful life, they are downcycled. With the use of RFID tags, in each garment, machines can easily sort garments for recycling.

USE AND CARE Durability desirable, people care for clothing for longer before it wears out. Most laundry is washed in cold water, with bio-friendly detergent.

EXTERNAL CONTEXT Low-carbon, low-reserve economy Global agreement on climate change Draconian regulation Awareness and desireability of high sustainability is extremely high Slow technological development, innovation is stifled

R E TA I L Brands and retailers cut out the middle man by going direct-to-source and investing more in cotton farming. Brands create personal stories around where garments come from. ’Nutrition labels’ detail inputs into each garment.

P R O C E S S I N G O F R AW M AT E R I A L Regional hubs for different stages of production (weaving is done in India, sewing in China, and so on) globally connected by fleets of slow and efficient shipping lanes.

DESIGN AND PRODUCTION ’Slow fashion’ designed and production Garments are produced in the most efficient way possible, owing to international trade deals. Improved working conditions.

The world is … healthy, wealthy and ultra high-tech. Materialism is out of favour and the aim is for ‘lightweight living’, with people aware of their consumption habits. The cotton industry structure is… more streamlined and efficient than ever before. ICT tracking makes the cotton value chain more transparent and less complex. However, competition with highly specialised synthetic fibres has seen the industry shrink dramatically. The key technologies used in the cotton industry are… affordable. Technology is everywhere, with ICT in particular helping create an efficient fabric trading market. Cotton is grown… mainly in Asia. Other areas where cotton farming once thrived

have changed land use policy and prioritize food and biofuel crops. The most popular type of cotton is…cotton which has been altered to provide additional benefit or capability, since consumers demand functional, high-tech fabrics. Cotton production levels are… lower than today, because of tough competition from innovative synthetics, although the industry achieves high margins because cotton is processed using high tech methods and is a more luxurious fibre. The industry is responding to climate change and resource issues… through technological innovation. Cotton growers have the sleekest technology to hand. Clothes are designed and made to

require less cleaning for example, and synthetically coated cotton is the pinnacle of luxury fabric. Cotton demand and consumption is… significantly lower. It caters to a small niche that craves natural, low-tech lifestyles. Cotton prices are… much less volatile compared with 1990s and 2000’s, due to lower overall demand, because of competition from synthetics. At end of life, cotton is… a resource for something else. All clothing is designed for degrading, disassembly, re manufacturing and/or reuse.

FARMING Cotton growers use the sleekest technology ensuring processes are resilient to climate change impacts and are as carbon, water, and time efficient as possible. Smart irrigation systems linked to weather forecasting, soil fertility and water availability.

END LIFE Cotton alternatives fit into a closed-loop system of re-manufacture, recycling, and upcycling. Clothing waste to landfill is rare.

EXTERNAL CONTEXT Healthier, wealthier world Early switch to a low-carbon economy Climate change adaptation policies shared worldwide Open markets with few trade barriers Heavy investments in R&D

USE AND CARE Self-cleaning coatings. The need to wash clothes is almost a thing of the past.

R E TA I L Garments are flying off the shelves and out of automated machines in a “guilt free” practically zero-impact shopping experience. Fabrics you can print yourself at home or in your local 3-D print shop are increasingly popular. Global brands popular.

P R O C E S S I N G O F R AW M AT E R I A L Transparent and less complex value chains with processing and production closer to source.

DESIGN AND PRODUCTION ’WikiFabrix’ pulls together the hundreds thousands of fabrics available today documenting their fibres-footprint and particular attributes. Technology enables low-carbon, fast, efficient processes, production and closed-loop mechanisms. Web-centralised patterns and increasingly similar styles worldwide.

The world is … struggling to cope with the impacts of climate change and resource shortages. Community bonds are strong as many strive for self-sufficiency. The cotton industry structure is… radically different. Cotton farming has become prohibitively expensive. The mainstream cotton industry has focused on fibre recycling and clothing remanufacture. Some textile factories are community-owned and run, and linked to cotton farming cooperatives. The key technologies used in the cotton industry are…focused on reuse. There have been breakthrough technological innovations in cotton yarn recycling, and recycled cotton fibre is beginning to replace virgin cotton fibre.

Cotton is grown…only in regions that are well prepared for climate change impacts. Globally, land is prioritised for growing food. The most popular type of cotton is… ‘CottonNu’: high-quality, affordable cotton from recycled fibres. Sustainability is not prioritised as such; people just want their cotton for the best possible price. Cotton production levels are… falling significantly for virgin cotton fibre, due to high input costs and land use priorities. The market for recycled cotton is growing. The industry is responding to climate change and resource issues… reactively. It has not adapted quickly enough to climate change impacts and water shortages.

Cotton demand and consumption is… a mixed picture. Virgin cotton fibre is affordable to luxury markets only. Recycled CottonNu garments are consumed all over the world. Cotton prices are… consistently very high for virgin cotton. Second hand and CottonNu garments are more affordable. At end of life, cotton is… recycled meticulously. People invest in clothing and textiles designed to last, some even selling second-hand cotton clothing to boost their income.

FARMING Yields low- cotton farmers ill prepared for climate change impacts and water shortages. Farmers grow ‘organic’ cotton as fertilizer price prohibitively high. Communities club together to grow their own. 24 hour arm guard - on farm theft rife. END LIFE Major ‘CottonNU’ recycling innovation from Japan means “as new” cotton garments can be made from recycled cotton fibres. Community recycling centres opening up linked to nearby factories. Not one scrap of cotton fabric is disposed of - cotton fibres are far too valuable.

USE AND CARE Only the relatively wealthy can afford a washing machine. Most use community laundries and catch up with friends or take evening classes while they wait. Cotton garments cherished and handed down to next generation.

P R O C E S S I N G O F R AW M AT E R I A L Local/regional community clusters. EXTERNAL CONTEXT Huge resource constraints splinter the world - natural resources are scarce and very expensive. World not coping well with impacts of climate change. Closed, protectionist world. Security of food and energy supply is top priority.

R E TA I L Clothing services for the mainstream e.g. clothing libraries & renewal services. Retailers that stock new cotton need maximum security.

DESIGN AND PRODUCTION Designers focus on beautiful remanufactured clothing or bespoke cotton garments for luxury market. In (re)manufactories power shortages disrupt production. Heavy investment in closed loop water manufacture and no-waste pattern-cutting technology & design. Climate refugees provide a steady source of cheap labour.

The world is … broken into cultural ‘blocs’ with unequal economic performance and conflict over scarce resources. Asia is the economic and cultural powerhouse. The cotton industry structure is… shaped by national priorities. Governments actively interfere with the industry. Textile industry production is heavily regionalised.

to capture more cotton supply from abroad. Cotton farming is typically done on a very large-scale. The most popular type of cotton is… the kind that grows in your local area. ‘100% locally sourced’ cotton clothing is a point of national pride.

The key technologies used in the cotton industry are… the ones that maximize yield. Seed policies are often nationalistic. Track-and-trace supply chain technologies that offer strong controls are the norm.

Cotton production levels are… growing steadily. A decline in production in places that no longer focus on cotton has been balanced out by regions increasing their production to support local consumption and bilateral trade.

Cotton is grown… all over the world. Many countries celebrate it as a ‘local fibre’. Some Asian countries, where demand is outstripping localised supply, are also seeking

The industry is responding to climate change and resource issues… in a reactive, selfinterested way. Climate impacts are hitting hard, with more extreme weather,

increasing water scarcity and falling yields. Cotton seed, which is genetically modified, so that it requires minimal irrigation, is very popular. Cotton demand and consumption is… fast-paced and locally flavoured. Consumers want fashion that reflects their local identity. Companies that provide clothing with a strong local heritage are the most successful. Cotton prices are… affordable. Priority is on security of supply and low cost, rather than quality or sustainability of production. At end of life, cotton is… discarded. Where it is easy and affordable, resources are incorporated back into the supply chain. Otherwise, products just get sent to landfills.

FARMING GM widely used to adapt to climate change and water stress (but banned in some regions). Countries guard their cotton seed IP jealously, seed theft rife. In places where water stress is severe, irrigation is prioritized for food crops.

END LIFE No global, responsible system of disposal possible in this fragmented world. Waste is still an issue globally.

USE AND CARE Cotton coatings reduce the need for washing and ironing. Waterless washing machines.

EXTERNAL CONTEXT Fast-paced but fragmented world High growth and consumption in Asia Slow growth and consumption in the West High barriers to trade (tariffs and quotas) Countries and companies got to extremes to guard IP

R E TA I L Strong local presence and identity. ’Fashion upgrades’ offered to local trends. Virtual personalisation and fast delivery.

P R O C E S S I N G O F R AW M AT E R I A L Often nationalised and at times so controlled that armies are employed to keep watch.

DESIGN AND PRODUCTION Citizens are ‘fashion engineers’: cheap DIY sets help people make their own outfits and accessorises out of locally available materials. Clothing designed to be zipped, tucked and strapped on to create different looks in one. Thanks to ICT advances and regionalised production, cotton products arrive on the markets swiftly.

We used the scenarios in order to develop a sustainability vision for the industry and its stakeholders. To do so, we held a workshop in Berlin with key players across the cotton value chain including government, NGOs and business. At the workshop, participant groups worked with each of the four Cotton

Futures scenarios to identify key risks and opportunities for the industry in the future, and develop a collaborative vision that aims to address these in a sustainable way. The vision is composed of two parts: a headline vision statement which encompasses the sustainability ambition for the industry, and a set of supporting principles which explain in more detail what needs to be done for the vision to be achieved.

2. S U S T A I N A B L E L I V E L I H O O D S A R E

4. C O L L A B O R A T I O N A N D T R A N S -

AVA I L A B L E T O A L L P R O D U C E R S .

PA R E N C Y E X T E N D S T H R O U G H O U T T H E S U P P LY C H A I N .

Cotton is the most sustainable and, therefore most desired fibre. Collective actions of stake-holders in the cotton industry ensure the fibre makes a positive impact on people and the environment along the entire value chain.

The industry and its stakeholders will share costs and benefits more equitably across the value chain by: investing to build skills and competencies of producers maximising the attractiveness of cotton in terms of price, product quality, environmental performance and social benefits ensuring a fair price for producers enabling the exchange of knowledge amongst producers

The industry and its stakeholders will work towards full transparency and traceability of the cotton supply chain, including:

1. E C O S Y S T E M A S S E T S A R E

3. C L O S E D L O O P P R O D U C T I O N

VA L U E D A N D P R O T E C T E D .

IS THE NORM.

transparency about social, environmental and financial impacts of cotton production globally established rules on sustainable cotton production and trade adoption of best practice global standards across all stages of production sharing of sustainability innovations, technology, and research - across public and private organisations, and in accordance with competition and anti-trust laws responsible trading practices

The industry and its stakeholders will build the value of ecosystem assets upon which it relies through:

The industry and its stakeholders will seek to move towards zero environmental impact by:

5. S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y D E F I N E S

The cotton industry and its stakeholders will fulfil this vision by ensuring that:

the use of true cost accounting methodologies (where social and environmental costs are factored into standard pricing mechanisms) exploration of opportunities offered by new technologies which ensure industry resilience in a resource constrained world systematic decrease in the use of toxic substances which damage biodiversity sustainable management of water resources at farm level

P R O D U C T VA L U E .

reusing water in processing recycling in order to minimise raw material use throughout the entire product life cycle investing in new technology for recycling and upcycling transparently sharing knowledge and technology around closed loop production, taking into consideration competition and anti-trust laws promoting closed-loop production systems

The industry and its stakeholders will seek to make the sustainable choice the number 1 choice for consumers, by: actively marketing to consumers so that they recognise the importance of sustainable cotton encouraging all consumers to make sustainable purchases (e.g. by demonstrating the high quality of sustainable cotton)

Global change and other megatrends present many challenges and opportunities for the cotton industry. Preparing for them will be crucial for the cotton industry to remain competitive and sustainable. Some of these challenges and opportunities, we already know, are in the pipeline, and so we urge the industry to prepare for them today. Population growth, resource shortages and climate change impacts will affect everything from agricultural yields to supply chain distribution systems. The spread of Information Communications Technology (ICT), meanwhile, can ensure better livelihoods, improve access to information, and optimise supply chains. On the other hand, many future trends have very uncertain outcomes. This is where the scenarios come in: they articulate different possible outcomes for those highly uncertain trends, making it easier to contemplate potential responses to challenges and opportunities. They are not meant to be a prediction of what the future will hold, but a tool used to think about what the future could hold.

In reality, the future will be different from all of the four presented scenarios, but it could well incorporate aspects from each scenario, at different times and in different places. The Cotton Futures scenarios we have created can therefore be used to help industry stakeholders to ‘futureproof’ strategy in a way that delivers long-term value, and to innovate new products and services fit for a sustainable future. As part of this project, we tested the scenarios with industry stakeholders in a workshop, using them to develop a common vision and to spell out some critical actions for the cotton industry. This exercise yielded valuable insight on ways in which the cotton industry can prepare for both the certain and less certain drivers of change in the future. The vision outlines the responses stakeholders felt were critical in acting for a sustainable, successful future for the industry, across the full value chain. The organisations involved in the development of this vision have committed to work towards creating a sustainable future for the cotton industry. The Initiatives for Sustainable Cotton plan to continue working with the vision, and to foster joint action for a roadmap to sustainability

across the cotton value chain. The workshop participants and the wider industry are invited to join this process and up to date information can be found at the website. If you would like to be involved, please get in touch with the Initiatives for Sustainable Cotton.

www.sustainable-cotton.net

[email protected]

PA G E 6 1 Fashion

Futures was a joint project between Levi Strauss & Co and Forum for the Future. In consultation with over 40 experts over 18 months, we constructed four plausible, stretching scenarios for what the global fashion industry could look like in 2025. www.forumforthefuture.org/ project/fashion-futures-2025/overview

PA G E 8 2 Population

Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa. un.org/unpp Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp

3

4

United Nations 2010

Food and Agricultural Organization, United Nations, 14 February 2007.

5

6

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007.

The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science. I. Allison, N.L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindschadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet, M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N. Gruber, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly, G. Kaser, C. Le Quéré, T.M. Lenton, M.E. Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J. Schellnhuber, S.H. Schneider, S.C. Sherwood, R.C.J. Somerville, K. Steffen, E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp.

7

International Trade Centre, Cotton and Climate Change: Impacts and options to mitigate and adapt, June 17, 2011: www.intracen.org/Cotton-and-ClimateChange-Impacts-and-options-to-mitigateand-adapt/

8

9

ABI Research, 2010

Workshop participants included key cotton and fashion industry experts working in government, NGOs and business. They helped us and create the vision. We are very grateful to everyone who contributed their time and expertise. Nurcan Alinc.................................................................................Fairtrade Deutschland (TransFair e.V.) Marco Bänninger..............................................................................................................Paul Reinhart AG Susanne Bösing.....................................................................................................................Tchibo GmbH Wolfgang Bertenbreiter.........Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Constantin Brinkmann..........................................................................................DEG Invest - COMPACI Alois Busshaus................................................................................BIMECO Garnhandel GmbH & Co. KG Hanna Dennes............................................................................................................... Textile Exchange Stephan Engel...................................................................................................Aid by Trade Foundation Simon Ferrigno.....................................................Consultant, Organic and Sustainable Farm Systems Sandya Gain......................................................................ESMOD - Master Fashion & Sustainability Birgit Gbaguidi..........................Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Thomas Green.....................................................................................................................Cotton Connect Fritz Grobin..........................................................................................................Bremen Cotton Exchange Lise Melvin............................................................................................................... Better Cotton Initiative Vicky Murray............................................................................................................Forum for the Future Alexandra Perschau..........................................................................................................Future for Cotton Frans Prins............................................................................................................................Beyond Berlin Felix Rauer..............................................................................................................................OTTO Group Karin Reimerink.............................................................................................................MADE-BY Benelux Maren Richter...................................................................................Fairtrade Deutschland (TransFair e.V.) Abi Rushton...........................................................................................................................Ethical Expert Damien Sanfilippo ..............................................-...................................................Fairtrade International Magdalena Schaffrin..........................................................Ethical Fashion Show Berlin/GreenShowroom Dr. Evita Schmieg............German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) Alexa Schubert.............................................................................................................Forum for the Future Tina Stridde............................................................................................................Aid by Trade Foundation Bianca Untied............................Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Sally Uren...................................................................................................................Forum for the Future Annika Wandscher.......German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) Jocelyn Wilkinson...........................................................................................................................Burberry

This report has been written by Forum for the Future on behalf of the Initiatives for Sustainable Cotton. Forum for the Future is a non-profit organisation working globally with business and government to create a sustainable future. The forum has 15 years’ experience inspiring new thinking, building creative partnerships and developing practical innovations to change the world. The aim is to transform the critical systems that we all depend on, such as food, energy and finance, to make them fit for the challenges of the 21st century. www.forumforthefuture.org Email: [email protected] and call: +44-20 7324 3630

The Aid by Trade Foundation, TransFair e.V. (Fairtrade Germany) and Future for Cotton are working together as Initiatives for Sustainable Cotton (ISC). More information on the Initiatives’ objectives and activities are available at www.sustainable-cotton.net

The Forum for the Future is a non-profit company limited by guarantee and registered in England and Wales. Registered office: Overseas House, 19-23 Ironmonger Row, London, EC1V 3QN, UK. Company No. 2959712. VAT Reg. No. 6777475 70. Charity No. 1040519

The report was made possible with the financial support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the Initiatives for Sustainable Cotton and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.