Aug 22, 2016 - spending (mostly on negative ads) by the NRSC and the Koch Brothers. ... Bayh's vote share is virtually u
G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP
1724 Connecticut Avenue, N W Washington, DC 20009 Tel: (202) 234 -5570 Fax: (202) 232 -8134 www.hartresearch.com
MEMORANDUM TO:
INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group DATE: August 22, 2016 RE:
Recent Indiana Statewide Survey
The results of our August 15-18 survey conducted among 801 likely voters (+3.5%) shows that Evan Bayh maintains a strong lead over Todd Young, despite massive spending (mostly on negative ads) by the NRSC and the Koch Brothers. Evan Bayh currently holds a solid 55%-39% lead over Young, with just 6% undecided. Bayh’s vote share is virtually unchanged from a mid-July survey conducted on behalf of the DSCC (Bayh 54%, Young 33%), despite the onslaught of negative TV ads by the GOP. The difference between the July and August trial heat comes overwhelmingly from Republicans: Young led among GOP voters 63%-27% in July, while he has, not surprisingly, expanded his advantage to 75%-20% over the past month. Still, the fact that Bayh CONTINUES to garner one in five Republican voters is an impressive feat in today’s politically polarized world (in contrast, Hillary Clinton only garners 2% of Republicans in the contest against Donald Trump). Most important, Evan Bayh holds an impressive 60%-28% lead among Independents, which is essentially the same as his performance in the July survey (57%-23%), which was conducted BEFORE the NRSC/Koch Brothers’ negative commercials. In terms of other key survey questions that could foretell where this race is headed, we note that perceptions of Evan Bayh’s performance as Senator is unchanged, with a 52% majority rating his tenure in positive terms and just 11% saying he has done a poor job. Meanwhile, Todd Young has become more polarizing, with his negative increasing markedly since July: Young’s “feeling thermometer” stands at 22% positive and 20% negative, with NET negative ratings among undecided voters and Independents—suggesting that it will be difficult for Young to expand his support. In summary, one month into his 2016 Senate campaign, Evan Bayh has withstood a strong battery of negatives by the GOP with his vote solid at 55% and his opponent STILL struggling to consolidate Republicans.
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