Global Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy/GHG ...

86 downloads 128 Views 2MB Size Report
Assumes manufacturers fully use A/C credit. ** Proposed CAFE standard by NHTSA. It is equivalent to 163g/mi plus CO2 cre
Global Comparison of Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy/GHG Emissions Standards

Update: August 2011

Overview of Regulation Specifications Country or Region!

Target Year!

Standard Type!

Unadjusted Fleet Target/Measure!

Structure!

Targeted Fleet!

Test Cycle!

U.S./California (enacted)!

2016!

Fuel economy/ GHG!

34.1 mpg* or 250 gCO2/mi !

Footprint-based corporate avg.!

Cars/Light trucks!

U.S. combined!

U.S. (Supplemental Notice of Intent)!

2025!

Fuel economy/ GHG!

49.6 mpg* or 163 gCO2/mi!

Footprint-based corporate avg.!

Cars/Light trucks!

U.S. combined!

Canada (enacted)! 2016!

GHG!

153 (141)*** gCO2/km!

Footprint-based corporate avg.!

Cars/Light trucks!

U.S. combined!

EU (enacted)! EU (proposed)!

2015! 2020!

CO2!

130 gCO2/km! 95 gCO2/km!

Weight-based corporate average!

Cars/SUVs!

NEDC!

Australia (voluntary)!

2010!

CO2!

222 gCO2/km!

Fleet average!

Cars/SUVs/light commercial vehicles!

NEDC!

Japan (enacted)! Japan (proposed)!

2015! 2020!

Fuel economy!

16.8 km/L! 20.3 km/L!

Weight-class based corporate average!

Cars!

JC08!

China (proposed)!

2015!

Fuel consumption! 7 L/100km!

Weight-class based per vehicle and corporate average!

Cars/SUVs!

NEDC!

S. Korea (proposed)!

2015!

Fuel economy/ GHG!

Weight-based corporate average!

Cars/SUVs!

U.S. combined!

17 km/L or 140 gCO2/ km!

* Assumes manufacturers fully use A/C credit ** Proposed CAFE standard by NHTSA. It is equivalent to 163g/mi plus CO2 credits for using low-GWP A/C refrigerants. “** In April 2010, Canada announced a target of 153 g/km for MY2016. Value in brackets is estimated target for MY2016, assuming that during 2008 and 2016 the fuel efficiency of the LDV fleet in Canada will achieve a 5.5% annual improvement rate (the same as the U.S.). This estimate is used in the accompanying charts.

Historical fleet CO2 emissions performance and" current or proposed standards Grams CO2 per kilometer, normalized to NEDC

270

US-LDV

Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal

250

CaliforniaLDV Canada-LDV EU

230

Japan

210

China S. Korea

190

Australia

170 150 130 China 2020: 117

110 90 2000

US 2025:107

Japan 2020: 105 EU 2020: 95

2005

2010

2015

2020

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. ! [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.!

2025

Historical fleet fuel economy performance and" current or proposed standards

Miles per gallon, normalized to US CAFE test cycle

65 Solid dots and lines: historical performance

EU 2020: 64.8

Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets 60 Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal

Japan 2020: 55.1

55

China 2020[1]: 50.1

50

US 2020[2]: 49.6

45 US-LDV

40

California-LDV Canada-LDV

35

EU Japan

30

China S. Korea

25

Australia

20 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be higher. ! [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.! ! !

2025

Historical fleet fuel consumption performance and current or proposed standards 12

Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal

11

US-LDV California-LDV

Liters/100km, normalized to NEDC

Canada-LDV EU

10

Japan China

9

S. Korea Australia

8 7 6 5

China: 5.0 Japan: 4.5

4 3 2000

US: 4.6

EU: 4.1

2005

2010

2015

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be higher. ! [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.! !

2020

2025

Total and annual percentage CO2 reduction with enacted and proposed targets

Regions are ordered according to their overall improvement/reduction rate. ** Baseline year for each regulatory period is the first year of that period. For example, the US overall reduction rate is 17% for the MY 2012-2016, and 35% for MY 2017-2025 . One cannot combine 17% and 35% to get the overall reduction rate from 2012 to 2025.

Total and annual percentage fuel economy improvement with enacted and proposed targets

Regions are ordered according to their overall improvement/reduction rate. ** Baseline year for each regulatory period is the first year of that period. For example, the US overall reduction rate is 15% for the MY 2012-2016, and 46% for MY 2017-2025 . One cannot combine the two values to get the overall reduction rate from 2012 to 2025.

Four markets absolute and annual rate comparison

Grams CO2 per kilometer, normalized to NEDC

270

EU

US-LDV

Japan

China

250 230 US baseline: 219

! !

210 China baseline: 185

190

1.9%! ! annually!

170

! !

EU baseline: 142

150 130

Japan baseline:131

! !

! 2%! ! annually! !

110 90 2000

4.7%! annually!

China 2015: 167

3.9%! annually!

2005

2010

Japan 2020: 105 US 2025:107 EU 2020: 95

2015

2020

2025

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower. ! [2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.! [3] Annual rate is calculated using baseline actual performance and target values.!

8

Thank you!

Washington DC • San Francisco • Brussels www.theicct.org +1 202 534 1617 www.twitter.com/TheICCT

9