web agrihq.co.nz. OctOber 27, 2017. AGRIHQ WMP. PRICE. (US$/TONNE). N
October 27, 2017
GLOBAL DAIRY SNAPSHOT AGRIHQ WMP PRICE (US$/TONNE)
NZX WMP FUTURES NOVEMBER 2017 (US$/TONNE)
NZD:USD
EUR:USD
BALTIC DRY INDEX
3050
2940
0.684
1.165
1555
Oceania production falters
Amy Castleton
Milk production data out yesterday shows that Oceania production is faltering this season. Total NZ milk production was down 1.3% year on year in September, on a milksolids basis. This puts season to date production down 0.1%, as the falls experienced in August and September have outweighed the excellent results for winter milk production. Production in June and July was boosted by extra winter milk contracts being on offer, but since then extremely wet conditions have affected milk production. This is the third season in a row in which September production has fallen behind the previous year. Milk production is also expected to fall behind last year in October. NZ has only started to dry out over the past few weeks. Most areas now have more normal soil moisture levels, though there are still pockets where soil moisture is at field capacity, notably in Waikato – our largest milk producing region. Summer production should benefit from the high soil moisture levels and is expected to be up on last season. But the exceptional results of last autumn are unlikely to be matched in 2018, so NZ production will likely track behind last year at the tail end of the season. As a result, AgriHQ now expects
no growth in milk production for the 201718 season. Our previous forecast was for 1.5% growth. Australian production also fell in September, albeit by a relatively small amount of 0.6%. August figures were also revised and are a little better than previously reported at 0.9% up year on year. This puts Australia’s production at up 1% season to date. Victoria fell behind in September, as much of the state was quite dry. Australia’s milk production is expected to grow 2 – 3% this season. The NZ milk production figures should be supporting whole milk powder (WMP) prices, but this is yet to play out in the market, and in fact WMP looks to be coming down further. Prices for WMP futures trading on the NZX Dairy Derivatives market dropped below US$3000/t this week. The November contract settled at US$2940/t yesterday. All contracts for the rest of the season are currently priced between US$2900/t and US$3000/t. Some contracts have traded up between US$10/t and US$20/t this morning, but do still remain below US$3000/t. WMP prices have also eased in Europe over the past few weeks. European prices are higher than NZ’s, averaging US$3257/t this week, though this is down about
AgriHQ Dairy Commodity Prices – US$/tonne fob This week Last week
WMP futures China’s imports below jump, for US$3000/t another month
high lights
US$250/t since the beginning of the month. There has been little urgency from buyers to secure WMP. We are at the peak of NZ’s season so there isn’t really a shortage of product right now, but product will start to become tighter going forward. China has been the only country that has been regularly buying WMP, but China will be buying now to land product while the lower tariff rate applies from 1 January. China’s WMP imports rocketed up even further in September, having imported 242% more product than in September 2016. The majority of the increase was NZ product, but China also imported more WMP from Australia, the US and Europe. European butter prices are coming down as fast as they went up. European butter is averaging US$6610/t this week, down about US$600/t from a week ago. The EEX market expects butter prices to come back further, reaching US$51715/t by January. Prices for butter futures on the NZX Derivatives market show a similar trend. The November butter futures contract is priced at US$5680/t, while the January contract is at US$5200/t.
Currency movements Four weeks ago
Last year
1.4
27-Oct-17
20-Oct-17
Change
29-Sep-17
Change
28-Oct-16
Change
Butter
5800
5800
↔ 0%
6000
↓ -3%
3980
↑ 46%
1.2
Skim Milk Powder
1800
1800
↔ 0%
1975
↓ -9%
2300
↓ -22%
1
Whole Milk Powder
3050
3050
↔ 0%
3100
↓ -2%
2800
↑ 9%
Cheddar Cheese
4000
4050
↓ -1%
4000
↔ 0%
3450
↑ 16%
0.8
Casein - Acid
7000
7000
↔ 0%
7200
↓ -3%
7200
↓ -3%
Anhydrous Milkfat
6800
6800
↔ 0%
6800
↔ 0%
5100
↑ 33%
0.6 Dec 16
Weighted Average
3220
3220
↔ 0%
3310
↓ -3%
2930
↑ 10%
ph +64 6 323 6393
Mar 17
NZD:USD EUR:USD
email
[email protected]
Jun 17
Sep 17 AUD:USD
web agrihq.co.nz
GLOBAL DAIRY SNAPSHOT
October 27, 2017
PAGE 2
Dairy derivatives markets NZX WMP Futures
26-Oct-17
19-Oct-17
Nov-17
2940
3060
Dec-17
2935
EEX Change
Open Interest
↓
-3.9%
6921
3030
↓
-3.1%
7144
Jan-18
2920
3025
↓
-3.5%
5583
Feb-18
2920
3040
↓
-3.9%
4265
Mar-18
2925
3040
↓
-3.8%
2865
Apr-18
2925
3025
↓
-3.3%
1390
CME
26-Oct-17
Change
26-Oct-17
Change
SMP/NFDM Futures Nov-17
1750
1810
↓
-3.3%
1820
1738
-8.2%
1653
-4.2%
Dec-17
1730
1790
↓
-3.4%
1281
1741
-7.5%
1653
-3.9%
Jan-18
1760
1770
↓
-0.6%
1090
1772
-8.1%
1675
-3.1%
Feb-18
1750
1760
↓
-0.6%
681
1776
-9.1%
1694
-3.7%
Mar-18
1750
1760
↓
-0.6%
619
1778
-9.9%
1741
-3.1%
Apr-18
1775
1775
↔
0.0%
95
1797
-7.0%
1769
-3.0%
Nov-17
6500
6575
↓
-1.1%
133
Dec-17
6350
6480
↓
-2.0%
173
AMF Futures
Jan-18
6100
6275
↓
-2.8%
264
Feb-18
6000
6200
↓
-3.2%
210
Mar-18
5980
6125
↓
-2.4%
222
Apr-18
5900
6160
↓
-4.2%
127
Nov-17
5680
5680
↔
0.0%
395
5915
-15.9%
5090
-5.2%
Dec-17
5250
5250
↔
0.0%
552
5649
-15.6%
5154
-3.8%
Butter futures
Jan-18
5200
5200
↔
0.0%
465
5175
-16.8%
5159
-3.3%
Feb-18
5150
5150
↔
0.0%
300
5205
-12.0%
5159
-3.5%
Mar-18
5150
5150
↔
0.0%
166
5205
-12.0%
5191
-2.7%
Apr-18
5150
5150
↔
0.0%
68
4850
-15.0%
5181
-3.1%
Sep-18
6.40
6.59
↓
-2.9%
3994
Sep-19
6.25
6.25
↔
0.0%
10
Sep-20
6.35
6.35
↔
0.0%
0
Milk price futures
Global Dairy Trade GlobalDairyTrade - US$ per tonne
Fonterra offer volumes - tonnes At auction on Tuesday October 17, 2017
Results from auction - Tuesday October 17, 2017 Contract period
1
2
3
4
5
Contract period
1
2
3
4
5
6
Shipping month
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Shipping period
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
AMF
7540
7053
6710
6648
6555
AMF
115
900
710
550
275
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BUTTER
BMP
6140
6075
5384
5385
5335
BUTTER
BMP
165
945
730
565
190
0
CHEDDAR
4200
4110
4079
4100
4175
CHEDDAR
80
450
450
400
100
0
LACTOSE
0
0
0
0
0
REN CAS
50
250
150
100
50
0
REN CAS
5739
5544
5507
5700
6029
SMP-NZ
250
3500
2600
1375
760
0
SMP
1860
1849
1752
1749
1758
SMP-AU
0
0
0
0
0
0
WMP
3083
3071
2936
2923
2935
2500
9730
4700
3250
1300
0
GDT Price Index
1039
WMP TOTAL
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email
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GLOBAL DAIRY SNAPSHOT
WMP
4000
October 27, 2017
AMF
7200
3500
PAGE 3
6200
3000
5200
2500 4200
2000 1500 Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
SMP
3000
3200 Sep-16
6300
2000
4300
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Cheddar
4600
2300 Sep-16
Jan-17
Butter
8200
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Whey
1250
4200
May-17
Butter
8300
2500
1500 Sep-16
Jan-17
1000
3800 6200 750
4200
3400
2200 3000 Aug-16 Sep-16
Dec-16 Jan-17
GDT
May-17
NZX Futures
Apr-17 Sep-17
Jan-18
EU Quotations
500 Dec-16
Aug-17
Mar-17
EEX
Jun-17
Dec-17
Sep-17
CME (historic)
Dec-17
Mar-18
CME
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