global talent rally - Arengufond

GLOBAL TALENT RALLY

N 2010

E growth 2000-2010: 15% D expenditure: 27,3% e of world researchers: 31,9% Migrant in millions: 70

ASIA GDP growth 2000- 2010: 96% R%D expenditure: 32,7% Share of world researchers: 41,4% Int. Migrant in millions: 62

GLOBAL TALENT RALLY

REPORT #3/2010: Global Talent Rally COMPILED BY COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE FOR FUTURES STUDIES (CIFS) PROJECT MANAGER: SALLY KHALLASH; EDITOR: CHRISTINE LIND DITLEVSEN; AUTHORS: JULIE KRONSTRØM CARTON, MARTIN GEJROT, SALLY KHALLASH, OCEANIA ELLEN MAURI; LAYOUT: SINIELS BØTTGER-RASMUSSEN; PROOFREADING: GRUN ATM ARKTRYK MIDTJYLLAND owth 2000-2010: 61%GUDBRANDSDOTTIR; PRINTED BY: GDP growth 2000-1020: 28% A/S

f world R%D expenditure: 0,9% R%D expenditure: 1,4% CIFS’ REPORTS ARE PUBLISHED FOUR TIMES A YEAR. f world researchers: 2,3% Share of world researchers: 2,1% THE NEXT REPORT WILL BE PUBLISHED IN THE SPRING OF 2011. COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE FOR FUTURES rant in millions: 19,8 Int.STUDIES, Migrant COPENHAGEN, in millions: 6 SEPTEMBER 2010. WWW.CIFS.DK

REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

THE WORLD IN 2010 NORTH AMERICA GDP growth 2000-2010: 19 % Share of world R%D expenditure: 37,8% Share of world researchers: 22,2% Int. Migrant in millions: 50,1

SYDAMERIKA GDP growth 2000-2010: 33% Share of world R%D expenditure: 40,4% Share of world researchers: 25,8% REpport: GLOBAL Int. Migrant in millions: 8,0 TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

EUROPE GDP growth 2000-2010: 15% R%D expenditure: 27,3% Share of world researchers: 31,9% · Int. Migrant in millions: 70

ASIA GDP growth 2000- 2010: 96% R%D expenditure: 32,7% Share of world researchers: 41,4% Int. Migrant in millions: 62

AFRICA GDP growth 2000-2010: 61% Share of world R%D expenditure: 0,9% Share of world researchers: 2,3% Int. Migrant in millions: 19,8

OCEANIA GDP growth 2000-1020: 28% R%D expenditure: 1,4% Share of world researchers: 2,1% Int. Migrant in millions: 6


Introduction You, I, and most of the people we know are in the process of changing the patterns of our working lives in various ways. Our workplaces bear no resemblance to our parents’ workplaces, and our children’s workplaces will definitely not resemble ours. The fixed workplace has long been a central element in working life. You go to a workplace to work, and you leave it to enjoy your leisure time. For a growing number of people, however, this is no longer the case. Business trips, laptops, international assignments and the Internet have made you more mobile than ever before – making you part of the global workforce. The idea of a flat world with free mobility has probably best been described by Thomas Friedman in The World is Flat. Friedman argues in this book that the globalisation of the business community, the dismantling of political barriers, and technological developments have created a flatter world where capital, technology, and information flow freely between markets. However, the question is whether Friedman stopped one step short of the mark. For the more we consider the work and the labour market of the future, the more there is to indicate that the manpower and talent of the future will also increasingly flow freely between countries, markets and megaregions. The next ten years

2010 is only a decade away, and the next ten years will be of major significance for the way in which global talent will be attracted, organised and managed. In general, the supply of manpower in the developed countries will diminish as the baby boomer generation leaves the labour market. We are talking about a demographic fault line where fewer people will enter the labour market than leave it. In countries such as Denmark and the Netherlands, somewhere in the region of one million people will be retiring from the labour market within the next ten years.

personnel is a resource-intensive task that requires great care and forethought. This is especially so because it must be done in a context where it will become increasingly difficult to attract talent and even more difficult to retain it. These developments will change business practices and the management of human capital and talent. This applies not least to the small and medium-sized enterprises that are still aiming at the domestic workforce and will therefore fall behind in the competition for talent. The purpose of this report is to throw some light on the global workforce of the future. Where will we be going in the future? How will we move around? What attracts us – and what repels us? Which segment do we belong to − and who is most mobile? Why do we want to migrate in general − and how can companies attract and retain us?

Sally Khallash, Project Manager Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies November 2010

migration Definitions

There may be some confusion about the terms migration, immigration and emigration. They all deal with people moving between countries, but they also refer to different types of movement: - Migration is the general term, and it is used about people moving between countries. Hence, it is an umbrella term that covers immigration and emigration. - Immigration refers to the people who move to a country. - Emigration refers to people who move from a country.

At the same time, the global economy will undergo change. An explosive increase of activity in the growth economies will make it necessary for more and more companies to attract talent from all over the world. Many of these companies will also need to move global talent from one region to another, and, while this may appear to be a simple enough matter, moving



1.1 New tendencies in global manpower mobility Principal points:

When we look at the new global workforce, there are three prevailing tendencies, namely that globally mobile workers:

– Three tendencies in the mobility of the future workforce: The global workforce will grow, migration will increasingly spread to new destinations, and it will take on more unpredictable and complex patterns.

#1 – are growing in number and will continue to grow significantly year after year #2 – are choosing new destinations to migrate to #3 – move in a more unpredictable manner

– The development of the global economy and new growth centres will change the patterns of migration; we will see less migration from south to north and increasing migration between the new economies and to the new growth centres. – Regional specialisation and business clusters are decisive for the migration of specialised manpower, which again is the motive force behind broader emigration to a given region. – We will see a growth in megaregions towards 2020 which will position themselves and increase in power with the help of specialisation, cluster formation and human capital – including a major concentration of global talent. – The new megaregions will also be in places where talent can be found and cultivated. Many existing knowledge centres and universities are already establishing themselves in these places.

Chapter 1 Mobility – new tendencies


#1 Growing in number: Today, one out of every 33 people – or what

corresponds to 3 per cent of the world’s population – is part of a globally mobile workforce. In just ten years, the number of migrants has grown from 150 million in 2000 to 214 million in 2010, while the globally mobile workforce has more than tripled over the past 30 years.1 The potential globally mobile workforce, however, is far bigger. First, five times as many people, i.e. 16 per cent of the world’s population, express a wish to move to another country; second, there is very considerable internal migration in a number of countries. Approximately 700 million people a year migrate internally, a large percentage of whom migrate from rural areas to cities (urbanisation). #2 New destinations: At the same time, the tendency is for the

global workforce to spread more than ever before. The United States, Australia, Canada, Singapore, etc., are still the countries that attract the global workforce. In fact, the populations of these countries would be more than doubled if everybody who wished to move there had the opportunity to do so. However, there are also opposing tendencies; it is already the case that the ten most popular destinations receive a smaller percentage of the workforce in relation to the numbers they received in 2000. Likewise, the traditional movement from south to north is changing as migrants from India and China will soon comprise 40 per cent of the global workforce.2 #3 More unpredictable: Finally, the patterns of migration have

hitherto primarily been from impoverished to rich countries. This tendency will in the future be supplemented with a number of exceptions and untraditional patterns: first as a consequence of the significant growth in internal migration in the colossal BRIC countries; second because the BRIC countries and (parts of) the NEXT 11 countries will come to compete with the United States and Europe as destinations of migration as they grow richer.34 It is already the case today that only 10 per cent of Asians say that they would move to another country by comparison with 35 per cent in Africa and 23 per cent in the Middle East.5


Incentives for migration The mobile mindset: Open-mindedness and the will and motivation to migrate are important prerequisites if people are to find jobs in other countries. The people of the future will be more mobile and will have a more global mindset. This is supported by globalisation and technological developments which enlarge the view of the world and make it more accessible. It also influences the mobility of the workforce as more people will migrate to fulfil their needs and wishes – and this includes everything from the experience of travelling to the opportunity for challenging tasks and higher earnings. According to PwC and KPMG, the new – millennial – generations will constitute a large part of the globally mobile manpower of the future6. For example, on the basis of information from more than 4,000 global, talented people, PwC found that millennials and generation Y regard working on international tasks as an important part of their career plans. According to Intelligence Group, however, the desire to go abroad is not limited to younger people as people older than 62 years also increasingly want to perform global tasks7. Economic growth: During the next 15 years, i.e. before 2025, cities

such as Mumbai, Mexico City, Delhi, Dhaka and Sao Paulo will grow bigger than New York and Tokyo. This will create a demand for manpower that will influence migration movements because low growth rates usually result in emigration, whereas a growing economy and high growth rates attract more manpower, i.e. result in immigration. Migration has traditionally taken place from developing countries to developed countries where wages and career opportunities are better. As economies become more integrated, however, we will see a change in patterns of migration towards more circular migration. More international tasks: Companies are constantly seeking

new markets and new opportunities for expansion and production, which leads to the internationalisation of tasks. Many companies will change their localisation programmes in the future and, to an increasing extent, circulate international tasks internally within their organisations. This will in turn lead to an increase in temporary migration or the re-migration of trained manpower, where global workers will stay in a country for a short period of time and then return to their country of origin or migrate to another destination. Business development: Studies have shown that immigrants in

Western countries are more likely to have had a higher education than the local population. A study carried out by the World Bank in 2000, involving 52 million immigrants in prosperous countries, showed that 36 per cent had graduated from a university. At the same time, foreigners are an important motive force for growth in local economies. One out of three


technological companies in Silicon Valley, for instance, was founded by an Indian or a Chinese immigrant. T. Rodgers from the engineering company Semiconductor wrote in the Wall Street Journal that every foreign engineer his company hired created five new jobs in management, marketing, etc. A study from 2007 carried out by the Danish Ministry of Economic and Business Affairs showed that every foreign engineer creates two new jobs in the local population. In addition, thanks to their consumption of goods and services, they also create work for the less welleducated part of the population. Demographic developments: Global differences in demographic

developments are a central incentive for migration. A number of African, Asian, and Middle Eastern countries have large populations of 20-35 year-olds in particular, which is also the most mobile age group with a strong tendency to emigrate. On the other hand, stagnating populations in Europe, Japan, and North America coupled with low fertility rates and growing numbers of elderly people will probably lead to a steadily increasing need for immigrants. In the future, China and Eastern Europe will experience similar challenges and need more manpower immigration. India will continue to see a growth in its young workforce, which will contribute to the global supply of manpower.8 Culture, politics, and living standards: Living standards and

political conditions are also incentives for global migration. A well-paid, well-educated workforce are likely to be attracted by factors such as stable political conditions, a healthy, secure environment for its children, welfare services, cultural activities, and personal development – all of which are incentives for migration. Migration in the future will not only be a result of traditional pull factors such as job opportunities and wage levels, but also of the desire for personal development, improved cultural and political conditions, and the provision of a higher level of service. Deregulation and regionalisation: In a globalised world,

the deregulation or liberalisation of laws governing immigration plays a central role in migration. Deregulation is attractive to migrants of all types and can, not least, lead to an increase in temporary migration as it makes it easier to travel to and from a country as opportunities become available. The EU, the African Union, and NAFTA all regulate migration in a regional area. They have the potential to facilitate the mobility of labour and the flow of knowledge across borders, but could also easily become protectionist trading blocs, something that the EU is often accused of where agriculture is concerned. Protectionism could be a major obstacle to immigration to the EU which, given its negative demographic trend, will have a great need for qualified global manpower in the longer term.


Climate change: Climate change and extreme weather conditions will

force more people to migrate in the future. We have seen an increase in climate refugees during the past decade, most recently in connection with the floods in Pakistan, which displaced millions of people. Climate refugees are a growing factor in connection with migration and could, in the future, come to compete with the number of financially weak migrants. Technological developments: Technological developments will

continue to make the globalised world flatter. They will make it easier to obtain knowledge of conditions, laws and opportunities in other countries and to create networks and, in this connection, “virtual nations”. They will make it easier to maintain relations with family members and others and thereby to gain inspiration, obtain guidance and help to emigrate. In addition, it will be easier to maintain ties with friends and family at home, something which will make migration a less dramatic change than previously as migrants will have more opportunities to preserve their culture and maintain close ties with their native countries. Thus, immigrants will to an increasing extent be able to act as “agents” who create more migration from the country in question. This could be either as “agents” for foreigners who want to emigrate, or as agents or “ambassadors” for employers in the destination country who wish to attract foreign manpower through networks and relationships. Education and talent: The hunt for talent has begun, and in the

future we will experience new, creative methods of attracting talented and skilled employees. It is already the case today that very young, talented football players are brought to Europe from African countries to be trained in various host clubs. In the same way, it could be imagined that scientifically talented youngsters could be recruited and trained as electricians, engineers, or doctors in host countries. This young “budding talent” could either be trained in their native countries or in the countries they emigrate to which would provide the youngsters with an opportunity to obtain training or an education.

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Global migration over time Up to 1985: Global workforce 1.0

Until the mid 80s the biggest number of migrants came from the south – i.e. from countries such as Africa, Latin America, and Asia – to more prosperous countries in the north. In addition, there was migration between northern countries, especially from Europe to the United States, Canada, Australia, etc.

1985-2010: Global workforce 2.0

The period after the Cold War ushered in a new migration era. Three tendencies increased the mobility of the workforce; 1) economies, values, and goods became more integrated and mobile; 2) the new economies accounted for a bigger share of the global workforce; 3) as a consequence of demographic developments throughout the world, the global workforce shrank in a number of countries. This heightened global competition for talent. More global talent than ever before migrated. In particular, internal mobility in the BRIC countries, for instance, increased significantly. In future, more global migrants will choose the growing economies as destinations rather than the traditional destination countries.

2010-2020: Global workforce 3.0

The global economic balance of power will change as the BRIC and NEXT 11 countries become established. The world will become multipolar, and knowledge, power, and growth will spread to an even greater extent. This will have an influence on the patterns of migration traced by global talent. For example, Chinese investments in Africa will lead to more migration between China and Africa. The BRIC and NEXT 11 countries will attract more migrants in step with economic and knowledge-based developments. This will mean; 1) that the migration patterns of the future will become more complex; 2) that competition for manpower will become even fiercer; 3) that traditional recipient countries in Europe, Australia, and North America will also be sending emigrants abroad. REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

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1.2 The world economy and the global workforce

It is necessary to look at how the world economy will develop and at the new growth centres towards 2020 in order to understand the directions global manpower migration could take. There is a clear connection between favourable economic conditions and a high level of migration. There has been a radical change in the world economy within the past ten years alone. China’s GDP has grown by 117 per cent compared with the United States’ growth of 19 per cent. Table 1 indicates that we can expect to experience major upheavals during the next ten years equal to those we experienced during the previous ten – with significant consequences for where the global workforce will flock to. Table 1: Total GDP growth, 2000-2020, in per cent9 2000-2010

2010-2020

World

36

39

Africa

61

61

Middle East

52

52

North America

19

11

South America

33

32

Europe

15

9

Asia

96

61

Oceania

28

15

In general, a major difference in income between various countries is a powerful motivation for migration. A potential migrant will be more likely to migrate if this will increase his or her prosperity from a very low to a slightly higher level. But the motivation begins to flatten out when income levels approach each other or reach a given level of prosperity. The high growth rates in the BRIC countries, for instance, and in a number of Eastern European countries, mean that several of these countries will gradually change status from emigrant to immigrant countries. This development will also promote temporary and circular migration, with migrants returning home after spending a few years abroad. The BRIC countries have become mainstream countries where business expansion and growth are concerned. Most multinational corporations are already in place in one or more of the BRIC countries, and they have all broadly speaking weathered the crisis and continue to develop with a steadily growing middle class and increasing incomes. 12


In addition to the BRIC countries, new markets will emerge in the years to come because many more developing countries will storm ahead with two-figure growth rates. IMF’s list of the top ten fastest-growing economies towards 2015 includes countries such as Eritrea, Kazakhstan, Iraq and Belarus. Goldman Sachs has identified the Next 11 countries, which also have great potential. They are South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, the Philippines, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Bangladesh. They have been evaluated and selected as new countries with considerable potential on the basis of their energy consumption and energy supplies, infrastructure, rate of urbanisation, human capital, health, and technology.10 1.3 Future global hot spots

In the future, specialisation and the formation of business clusters will be a significant motive force for the mobility of labour – and particularly for which kind of global manpower will migrate to which parts of the world. Similarly, existing and future economic growth and development are characterised by an increasing degree of specialisation. People specialise to become more skilful at what they do, and companies, regions, and cities do the same. The accelerating need for new knowledge and the growing significance of economies of scale and “critical mass” in the economy are vital motive forces for the formation of clusters and new urban regions. Specialisation has a horizontal aspect − based on fields, industries, or growth themes such as medicines, foods, wind turbines, and clothing; and a vertical aspect with regard to the value chain, ranging from R&D and marketing, over sourcing, production, and distribution to sales. This specialisation is based on differences in wages and other production costs, differences in the availability of competent manpower, differences in the stability, creativity, and dynamism of the business environments, and how attractive it is to settle in the area in question. The heightened specialisation of companies, manpower, lifestyles, etc., is accompanied by a demand for size in order to achieve critical mass, such as a sufficient number of educational institutions or workplaces that cater for the speciality in question. This is applies to the business community and consumption as well as private life. While most mass produced material goods can be distributed globally and are not connected with any particular economies of scale, most immaterial goods and experiences are either connected with specific places or require a certain critical mass, both in connection with production and consumption. This is true of cultural life, leisure, and differentiated lifestyle consumption, where an increasing degree of specialisation and diversity come into prominence and result in places beginning to specialise.


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This specialisation also extends to the private sphere where people at various stages of life, from different ethnic, religious, and political groups, and of different sexual orientations each seek the company of like-minded people in specific places. This gives rise to segregation on the housing market, among other areas, where large groups of people attract other, similar people and displace those who do not feel at home among the dominant group or cannot afford to live in certain areas.11 These tendencies towards specialisation in the production and consumption sectors support and intensify each other. Increased specialisation is accompanied by a greater need for mobility, which again intensifies the tendency to specialise. This leads to the formation of clusters. Specialisation and segregation thus become more and more pronounced at all levels – from urban level over metropolises to national and global urban networks and megaregions. The migration of the future will be an expression of the fact that urbanisation, specialisation, and segregation have become global rather than local. 1.4 Megaregions – the power of place

“The more things are global the more decisive location becomes” – Michael Porter, Harvard Business School, on the location paradox. The global workforce does not migrate to countries – it migrates to megaregions – to the places where jobs, careers, and the opportunity for personal development can be found. More than half of the world’s wealth is accounted for by 25 metropolises. And the five biggest cities in China and India account for 50 per cent of these countries’ wealth. Powerful urban areas rather than states are to an increasing extent assuming the role of economic centres of force and magnets.12

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Table 2 Megaregions

Population in millions

Population, global share

Economic activity, global share

Most frequently quoted scholars, global share

10 biggest megaregions

416

6.5%

43%

53%


640

10%

57%

76%


1,150

18%

66%

83%

The most important production factors in the future − talent, innovation, and creativity – are very irregularly distributed and are concentrated in relatively few global hot spots. This is because cluster formation makes each of these factors more productive. This cluster formation is not a new tendency, but it is intensified each time society moves from one social system to another: agricultural society, industrial society, knowledge society, experience society, and the creative society. This tendency means that knowledge workers must either move to very big urban areas to find a reasonably broad range of courses of specialised education, research, and workplaces, or they must move to urban areas that specialise in the areas they specialise in themselves. In a society where innovation and creativity are decisive, simply having access to knowledge is not sufficient; there must also be diversity, an open-minded attitude to new ideas and cultural and creative environments that are conducive to new thinking. Cluster formation is even more important in this connection and favours the biggest of the megaregions where clusters can develop in different fields.

Megaregions are urban networks in which a growing number of the world’s population live, and where global economic activity and innovation take place. These megaregions act as magnets that attract internal and international migrants alike.

Concentration and cluster formation lead to a grading of people and com panies on the basis of their solvency and willingness to pay. The ambitious, innovative and creative seek each other's company and supplant others who cannot afford to pay for accommodation, meals in restaurants, and what lifestyle boutiques have to offer. And city regions such as those in the United States, Canada, and Australia attract not only these countries' own citizens, in some cities immigrants comprise up to 40 per cent of the population.

More than 50 per cent of the world’s population now live in cities, and very large numbers live in a few hundred very big cities of which many are conjoined in megaregions such as Amsterdam-Brussels-Luxembourg or Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou, the latter with 120 million inhabitants. Concentration is even greater where world economic activity is concerned. The 40 most important megaregions economically account for 18 per cent of the world’s population, but for 66 per cent of global economic activity. Innovation and research are even more concentrated. These 40 megaregions account for as much as 86 per cent of patent applications and house 83 per cent of the world’s 1,200 most frequently quoted scholars.

Polarisation is occurring in the rich countries of the world as jobs in the manufacturing sector are phased out and replaced by well-paid jobs for creative knowledge workers and by poorly-paid jobs for service workers. Some urban areas around the world are coming under pressure from above and below as a consequence of this development. From above in that knowledge-based and creative companies are to an increasing extent moving to megaregions and/or to urban areas where there are specialised clusters. From below in that workplaces are being moved to countries where production costs are lower or where tasks are being automated and centralised.



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Examples of clusters

Three-quarters of the growth in US productivity can be ascribed to technological progress, and the opportunity for talent cluster formation plays a central role in this connection. The San Francisco Bay area has a population of 13 million and a number of clusters, the most well-known of which are the Silicon Valley IT cluster and the entertainment cluster (film and entertainment technology). To this can be added biotechnology, agriculture, and wine-making. The megaregion is home to three top universities which have also specialised so that they can contribute to the positions of strength in the region. Thirty per cent of the people who have established new industries in Silicon Valley are immigrants from China and India. The venture capital industry, which finances new, innovative companies, is even more concentrated both with regard to the companies financed by it and the location of its offices – primarily Silicon Valley, New York, and Boston where the United States is concerned. The industry prefers to be no further than 20 minutes away from the companies in which it invests in order to maintain a “hands-on” approach to its investments. In spite of the high mobility of capital, finance houses are concentrated in London, New York, Tokyo, and Hong Kong and secondarily in Frankfurt, Singapore, and Shanghai.

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Singapore has powerful niche industries based on science and technology. A long-term, successful stake in these industries has meant that a number of Western universities have established branches there. This, combined with big investments in culture – both ‘highbrow culture’ and ‘street culture’ – has made Singapore a top destination for innovative people with many different lifestyles and interests. The most considerable of the future megaregions is Hong KongShenzhen-Guangzhou with its population of 120 million. In India, the 1,500 km long industrial corridor between Mumbai and Delhi is also one of the future’s megaregions and also has a population of 120 million. In the longer term, Southeast Asia also has the potential to become a transfrontier megaregion from Beijing to Tokyo across Pyongyang (North Korea), and Seoul-Busan in South Korea. There are 77 cities in this industrial corridor, each with more than 200,000 inhabitants, amounting to a total of 97 million people today.13 A 600 km long urban formation, which connects Nigeria, Benin, Togo, and Ghana and powers the economy of the entire region, is growing up in West Africa.


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Megacities

1.5 Human capital is essential for growth

Where are the biggest cities now, and where will they be in the future? Table 3 shows PwC’s projection of the biggest cities towards 2025. In 2025 the populations of the megacities and their neighbouring cities in the BRIC countries will be bigger than those of most Western cities. This will have an influence on the flow of migration from south to north towards an increase in what is already a high level of internal migration in the new economies, which means that there will be less migration between countries and more between cities and economic hot spots.

“The greatest strength of America is that people want to live there”– Richard Florida. Human capital – including new talent and qualified manpower in particular – is essential for sustainable growth in countries and regions. For instance, a person living in the United States who has had a higher education will, during the course of his/her life, pay an average of over USD 190,000 in income tax and social contributions more than a person with an upper secondary school education. In Denmark, studies carried out by Copenhagen Business School (CBS) show that a foreign worker will increase a company’s productivity by 5-15 per cent after only three years of employment.

Table 3: Megacities14

Nr. 1950 location 1

New York

2

Tokyo

3

London

4

Shanghai

POP.m.

Nr. 2007 location

12,3

Tokyo

32,5

1

Tokyo

Pop. mio

2025 location

Pop. m.

35,7

Tokyo

36,4

19,0

Mumbai

26,4

New York

16,1

2

New York

8,4

Mexico City

15,3

3

Mexico City

19,0

Delhi

22,5

6,1

Sâo Paolo

14,8

4

Mumbai

19,0

Dakar

22,0

Sâo Paolo

18,8

Sâo Paolo

21,4

11,3

5

Paris

5,4

Mumbai

12,3

6

Moskva

5,4

Osaka/Kobe

11,0

6

Delhi

15,9

Mexico City

21,0

Shanghai

15,0

New York

20,6

7

Buenos Aires

5,1

Kolkata

10.9

7

8

Chicago

5,0

Los Angeles

10,9

8

Kolkata

14,8

Kolkata

20,6

13,5

Shanghai

19,4

Kolkata

10 Beijing

4,5

Seoul

10,5

9

Dakar

4,3

Buenos Aires

10,5

10

Buenos Aires

12,8

Karachi

19,1

12,5

Kinshasa

16,8

11 Osaka/Kobe

4,1

Rio de Janeiro

9,6

11

Los Angeles

12 Los Angeles

4,0

Paris

9,3

12

Karachi

12,1

Lagos

15,8

11,9

Cairo

15,6

13 Berlin

3,3

Cairo

9,1

13

Cairo

14 Philadelphia de Janeiro 15 Rio

Moskva Delhi

9,1

14

Rio de Janeiro

11,7

Manila

14,8

3,1 3,0

8,2

15

Osaka/Kobe

11,3

Beijing

14,5

16 St Petersburg

2,9

Shanghai

8,2

16

Beijing

11,1

Buenos Aires

13,8

2,9

Manila

8,0

17

Manila

11,1

Los Angeles

13,7

Moskva

10,5

Rio de Janeiro

13,4

17 Mexico City 18 Mumbai

2,9

London

7,7

18

19 Detroit

2,8

Jakarta

7,7

19

Istanbul

10,1

Jakarta

12,4

20

Paris

9,9

Istanbul

12,1

20 Boston

18

1990 location

5

9

POP.m.

2,6

Chicago

7,4



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SOUTH AMERICA 3,6 2,9 NORTH AMERICA 22,2 25,2 EUROPE 28,4 31,9 ASIA 41,4 35,7 0

2007

FIGUR 2

20

30

40

50

BRAZIL 1,6 1,5 INDIA 2,2 1,6

RUSIA 2,1 2,0 JAPAN 13,0 13,7

CHINA 9,2 5,0

OCEANIA 1,6 1,4

AFRICA 0,9 0,9

USA 32,4 35,1

Figure 1: Share of the world’s researchers, 2002 and 2007 (per cent)

FIGUR 1

SOUTH AMERICA 2,9 2,6 NORTH AMERICA 34,7 37,8

2002

2007

10

Figure 2: Share of the world’s R&D investments, 2002 and 2007 (per cent) 2002

This means that there is a growing demand for highly-educated manpower throughout the world, which also means that investment in education will be even more important in the future. European and US universities have been responsible for training the majority of the world’s engineers, doctors, researchers, lawyers, humanists, and business developers for decades. The BRIC and Next 11 countries, however, are now increasing their investments in education and the development of local talent. This will be a central factor in determining the patterns of migration of students and young workers in particular during the coming decades. According to QS World University Rankings, cities such as Delhi, Sâo Paulo, Mexico City, and Shanghai, which PwC has named as future hot spots, already have educational facilities that qualify them to be ranked among QS top 200 universities.

EUROPE 27,3 30,3 ASIA 32,7 27,1

BRAZIL 1,7 1,2

0

10

20

30

40

INDIA 2,2 2,3 RUSIA 6,6 8,5 FIGUR 3

JAPAN 10,0 11,2 CHINA 20,1 14,0 USA 20,3 23,2 OCEANIA

2,1 2,1

AFRICA 2,3 2,3

SOUTH AMERICA 3,6 2,9 NORTH AMERICA 22,2 25,2 EUROPE 28,4 31,9 ASIA 41,4 35,7 0

10

20

30

40

50

2002

The two graphs were prepared by UNESCO in 2009 and show the percentage share of world investments in researchers and R&D in 2002 and 200715. Figure 1 shows that by far the great majority of the world’s researBRAZIL from 1,6 1,5 chers come Asia. While the share of researchers in the rest of the world isINDIA falling, the 2,2 1,6 number of researchers in China and Brazil is on the increase. In addition, while figure 2 shows that the biggest investments RUSIA 2,1 2,0 in R&D are still made in the United States, China is very close behind JAPAN 13,0 13,7 and overtook Europe in R&D investments long ago. Even though India CHINA 9,2 5,0 and Brazil lag behind in their share of researchers and R&D investments, 32,4 35,1 they haveUSA nevertheless increased their global share of researchers and 2007

FIGUR 2

OCEANIA 1,6 1,4

AFRICA 0,9 0,9

20

SOUTH AMERICA 2,9 2,6

NORTH AMERICA 34,7 37,8

EUROPE 27,3 30,3

investments during the same period in which the global share in Western countries has fallen. The question is quite simply how long it will take for the new growth economies to obtain a bigger share of world investments in human MEXICO capital11,5 than the rich countries.

RUSIA

11,5

INDIA

10,0

There is great potential for developing talent in the New World, and CHINA 7,3 international satellite universities are popping up in the Middle East and UKRAINE 6,1 Southeast Asia. Institutions such as India’s Mahatma Ghandi University, 4,9 St.BANGLADESH Petersburg University of Engineering and Economics, Cornell’s TURKEY 4,4 Medical School, and the Georgetown Foreign Service Faculty are estabUK 4,2 lishing campuses from Qatar to Dubai and Hong Kong. This has become GERMANY 4,1 a global trend. Nottingham University has a big campus in Shanghai, KAZAKHSTAN 3,7 the Australian University of Monash has a branch in Malaysia, and the PHILIPPINES 3,6 Technical University of Munich and Insead Business School have estab ITALY lished branches in3,5Singapore.16 These satellites provide a direct plug-in to PAKISTAN 3,4 the global workforce of the future and will create new migration paths. MOROCCO 2,7 At the same time, this further reinforces the importance of where human EGYPT 2,4 capital will be developed as these will be the places where the new human POLAND 2,3 and academic talent hot spots will be created. The question is whether SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO 2,3 the Next 11 countries will follow suit and attract the interest of academic USA 2,3 institutions at global level and thereby develop talent in parallel with their VIETNAM 2,2 participation in the economic division of labour. UZBEKISTAN 2,2 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

FIGUR 4 REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk


SENEGAL

4,82

ETHIOPIA

5,117

21

2002

2007

FIGUR 2

CHINA

7,3

UKRAINE

6,1

RUSIA 2,1 2,0

JAPAN 13,0 13,7

It is relevant to investigate where most of the global workforce comes CHINA 9,2 5,0 from. The higher the rate of emigration, the easier it will be to attract USA from 32,4 35,1 the global workforce these countries. Figure 3 shows that Mexico, OCEANIA 1,6 are 1,4 the biggest emigration countries. But it is Russia, India, and China precisely AFRICA 0,9 0,9 these countries that are experiencing economic growth and where an SOUTH AMERICA 2,9 2,6 active effort is being made to re-recruit emigrants. The same applies to NORTH AMERICA 34,7 37,8 Turkey, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Vietnam, which are all NEXT 11 30,3 countries and EUROPE must be27,3 expected to make a major effort to ensure powerful ASIA 32,7 27,1 economic development. 0

10

20

30

BANGLADESH

4,9

TURKEY

4,4

UK

4,2

GERMANY

4,1

The next question is where3,7most of the qualified emigrants – by num KAZAKHSTAN ber – come from. This is illustrated in figure 3, where the 25 countries PHILIPPINES 3,6 with the biggest number of3,5qualified emigrants are highlighted. Next 11 ITALY countries such as Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, and the Philippines are at the top PAKISTAN 3,4 MOROCCO 2,7 qualified global manpower. with the biggest numbers of

EGYPT

POLAND

2,3

SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO

2,3

40

2,4

USA

2,3

VIETNAM

2,2

UZBEKISTAN

2,2 0

Figure 317: The 20 biggest emigration countries

MEXICO

11,5

RUSIA

11,5

INDIA

10,0

SENEGAL

4,82

ETHIOPIA

5,117

ECUADOR

5,45

C‘ TE DíIVOIRE

5,7876

SUDAN

5,8128

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

6,076

CHINA

7,3

UKRAINE

6,1

BANGLADESH

4,9

NICARAGUA

6,18

TURKEY

4,4

GUINEA

6,6378

UK

4,2

GUYANA

6,872

GERMANY

4,1

MOROCCO

8,24

KAZAKHSTAN

3,7

UKRAINE

8,4

PHILIPPINES

3,6

SRI LANKA

8,7725

ITALY

3,5

PAKISTAN

3,4

MOROCCO

2,7

GUATEMALA

12,9

EGYPT

2,4

VIETNAM

15,6

16,38

6

8

10

12

14

KENYA 11,1249 INDIA

11,76

NIGERIA

12,274

POLAND

2,3

CHINA

SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO

2,3

JAMAICA

16,5

USA

2,3

HAITI

17,136

VIETNAM

2,2

UZBEKISTAN

2,2

LIBERIA 18,2886

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

PHILIPPINES

26,64

PAKISTAN

33,304

IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF 36,1167 MEXICO

57,2 0

FIGUR 4

SENEGAL

4,82

ETHIOPIA

5,117 5,45

VIETNAM 39

C‘ TE DíIVOIRE

5,7876

SIERRA LEONE 41

SUDAN

5,8128

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

6,076

GHANA 43

NICARAGUA

6,18

MAURITIUS 48

GUINEA

6,6378

GUYANA

6,872

MOROCCO

8,24

UKRAINE

8,4

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

FIGUR 5

ECUADOR

22

4

FIGUR 4

2

Figure 4:18 Number of qualified emigrants, net in 2005.

FIGUR 3

10,0

The global workforce in figures

11,5

INDIA

BRAZIL 1,6 1,5 INDIA 2,2 1,6

RUSIA

MOZAMBIQUE 42

BELIZE 51 REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLYMALTA / NOVEMBER 55 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES 57 SEYCELLES 59

23

C‘ TE DíIVOIRE

5,7876

SUDAN

5,8128

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

6,076

NICARAGUA

6,18

GUINEA

6,6378

GUYANA

6,872

MOROCCO

8,24

UKRAINE 8,4 The picture appears to be different if we look instead at the net share of SRI LANKA 8,7725 qualified global manpower as a percentage of total net emigration from KENYA 11,1249 the various countries. As illustrated in figure 4, this includes a number of INDIA 11,76 atypical countries. In this connection, it is particularly the small island staNIGERIA 12,274 tes and African countries such GUATEMALA 12,9 as Gambia, Ghana, and Mozambique that VIETNAM account for a large share of15,6 qualified global manpower seen as a percenCHINA of 16,38 tage of the total number net emigrants. The majority of these emigrants JAMAICA migrate to former colonies16,5 or to the Anglo-Saxon countries. But in step HAITI 17,136 with changes in LIBERIA the world economic hierarchy where growth is concerned, 18,2886 global manpower will have a steadily increasing incentive to look at destiPHILIPPINES 26,64 nation countries other than the traditional countries. PAKISTAN 33,304 IRAN, ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF 36,1167 MEXICO

57,2

0 10 20 as 30 40 50 60share 70 Figure 5:19 Qualified net emigration a percentage of net emigration in 2005

(Endnotes) 1

2. Juan Somavia, ILO. (2008). International Migrants Day. International Labour Office. 3. UNDP. (2009). Human Development Report 2009: Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development. United Nation Human Development Division. 2 3 4

Goldman Sachs. (2007). BRICs and Beyond. Goldman Sachs Economic Group.

5

Gallup. (2009). Greener Grass: Gallup og Economist. TNS Gallup.

6

KPMG. (2008). The Global Skill Convergence. KPMG International.

7

IG!. (2009). Get ready for the International Recruitment Rally. Intelligence Group.

8

IOM. (2010). Facts and Figures: Global Estimates. International Organization for Migration, URL: http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/about-migration/facts-and-figures/lang/en.

VIETNAM 39

IMF. (2010). World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk and Balancing. International Monetary Fund.

SIERRA LEONE 41

10 Goldman Sachs. (2007). BRICs and Beyond. Goldman Sachs Economic Group.

MOZAMBIQUE 42

11 Bishop, B. (2008). The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us

GHANA 43

Apart. Houghton Mifflin Company.

MAURITIUS 48 BELIZE 51

12 Lopez Moreno, E. (2010) UN-Habitat. According to The Guardian. March 2010.

MALTA 55

13 UNHABITAT. (2010). State of the World Cities 2010/2011– Cities for All-Bridging the Urban Divide. UN-Habitat.

ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES 57 SEYCELLES 59

14 PwC. (2010). Managing Tomorrow’s People: Talent Mobility 2020. PriceWaterhouseCooper.

FIJI 59

15 UNESCO. (2009). A Global Perspective on Research and Development. UNESCO Institute for

DOMINICA 59

Statistics.

GAMBIA 65

16 MSNBC. (2007). Sowing Seeds: From Cornell in Qatar to Monash in Malaysia, satellite campu-

SAMOA 67

ses are a booming business.

GRENADA 67

17 IMF. (2010). World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk and Balancing. International Monetary

CAP VERDE 69

Fund.

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS 72 TONGA 74

NIC. (2008). Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. National Intelligence Council. US Government Printing Office.

9

IOM. (2010). Facts and Figures: Global Estimates. International Organization for Migration, URL: http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/about-migration/facts-and-figures/lang/en.

FIGUR 5

1. UNESA. (2006). International Migration report 2006: A global assessment. United Nations Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.

18 UNESA. (2006). International Migration report 2006: A global assessment. United Nations

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 78

Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.

HAITI 82

19 UNESA. (2006). International Migration report 2006: A global assessment. United Nations

JAMAICA 83

Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.1.5

GUYANA 86 SURINAME 90 0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

FIGUR 6

ALL COUNTRIES 80 INDIA 93 SOUTH AFRICA 92 TURKEY 90 BRAZIL 89 AUSTRALIA 88

24

CHINA 86

SLOVAKIA 85 ARGENTINA 85



25

2.1 Why migrate at all?

– The stage of life people are at plays a decisive role for their motivation and opportunity to migrate. – The younger generations’ motivation to migrate is based on a desire for personal growth and development. Global talent with families wants family packages and stability, while the baby boomer generation focuses on the cultural and social climate in the country in question and on the opportunity to obtain meaningful work. – Skilled workers and people with a low level of education migrate to improve their economic situation, while those with a higher education migrate to improve their personal competences or to find better cultural, political, and economic living conditions. – Global talent considers companies’ brands and reputations, their own career plans, the regions companies are located in, the attractiveness of the cities they are based in, the facilities they have to offer, and their cultural climate. The decisive factor for migration among the youngest generations tends to be the size of companies and potential career opportunities rather than which country they are located in.

People migrate for many different reasons depending on who they are, where they live, and their wishes for the future. Several factors (pull factors) attract them and influence their choice of the country they will emigrate to: megatrends, for instance, and incentives such as globalisation and a global mindset, labour market needs and opportunities, individual development needs, etc., draw individuals to other countries. The factors that attract migrants differ − as does the demand for certain competences in the various sectors and regions. While skilled workers and people with a low level of education migrate to improve their economic situation, people with a higher education migrate to improve their personal competences or to find better cultural, political, and economic living conditions.

google

“Immigration is the sincerest form of flattery” – Jack Paar.

Principal points

We view migration in this report as the desire and the conscious choice to migrate. Migrants are seen as thinking people who choose to migrate in the expectation that they can obtain better living conditions, job opportunities, or personal development abroad. This report deals solely with global manpower and talent and not with political refugees and asylumseekers, whose reasons for migrating differ significantly from those of the new group of manpower migrants. This chapter presents various segments of the globally mobile workforce and takes a closer look at their wishes and preferences with regard to host countries and companies.

Various types of migration:

Chapter 2

Continuing types of migration:

New and future types of migration:

– Temporary manpower migration – Settlement/permanent migration – Family reunification – Forced migration

– Education – Lifestyle choices – Pension – Partner

Global talent 2.2 Who are the global workers?

Patterns of migration cannot simply be described with the help of statistics, arrows, circles, and figure on maps, they must be described in terms of people moving within and across national borders. This part of the report takes a close look at various segments of the global workforce, namely 1) veteran mobility, 2) temporary mobility, and 3) lifestyle mobility. 26



27

JAMAICA 83 GUYANA 86 SURINAME 90 0

#1 – Mobility at various life stages

How old you are is one thing – how old you feel is another entirely. The new older generation sees itself in a quite different light than did previous older generations, and its members are interested in realising themselves in various ways. CIFS has drawn up a life-stage model in order to illustrate the new view of life stages, cf. below:

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Figure 6:3 Millennials who want to work outside their countries during their careers

native FIGUR 6

ALL COUNTRIES 80 INDIA 93 SOUTH AFRICA 92 TURKEY 90 BRAZIL 89

Table 4: Life-stage model1

AUSTRALIA 88 CHINA 86

Life stage

Approx. age

Number, 2020

Challenges

The free 1

20-35 years

Slightly more (Millennials)

Freedom. Search for identity. Nomads. Self-realisation. Big cities.

Parents

30-55 years

Fewer (Generation X)

Pressed for time and money. Balance between work and family.

The free 2

55+ years

More (Baby boomers)

Freedom. New opportunities. Consumption options. Health. Self-realisation.

SLOVAKIA 85 ARGENTINA 85 CHILE 84 RUSSIA 84 FRANCE 82 UK 81 SPAIN 80 CANADA 77 HONG KONG 74

GERMANY 70

HUNGARY 69

USA 69 POLAND 65 NETHERLANDS 62

The three stages of life are not defined by age, so the age intervals given above are simply typical and can be extremely fluid. Free 1 (Millennials in 2020)

The “free 1” will spend 10-15 years finding out who they are – often taking several different courses of education, jobs, and partners – before, as 30-35 year-olds, they will be ready to settle down more permanently in jobs, families, and homes. Big cities will be particularly attractive to this group. Millennials are the coming generation of free 1, which is just on its way into the labour market now. As they will have grown up in a globalised world with the Internet and digital communications platforms, they belong to the most globally oriented group. They will see the world as having fewer borders and confidently expect that their jobs will offer international assignments and career opportunities. In general, millennials will enter the labour market at a relatively advanced age and this is due in particular to the fact that they have a high level of education compared with previous generations. Training, personal development, great influence on choice of jobs and locations, flexibility, and job mobility will be high on their wish lists. 80 per cent would like to work abroad, while 94 per cent will expect their work to involve international assignments to a greater extent than their parents’ work did.2 Millennials will therefore have disproportionately high representation among migrants as they belong to the most mobile group. They will have fewer family ties and will also be at a stage of their lives where they

0

20

40

60

80

100

%

want to experiment and take risks as part of their personal, professional FIGUR 7 and business-related development. They can be expected to have a very % considerable impact on the labour market and will be prepared to stay in a given job for no more than 18 months to two years before seeking new 80 challenges.4 Finally, the members of age group free 1 will constitute a 75 declining share of the workforce in most countries in the future. 70

65 Parents (Generation X in 2020) 60 the 35-55 year-olds, will be more pressed for time and The parent group, money because they must “get around to everything” – career, children 55 and home. Their50challenge will be to reach a point of equilibrium in their lives. Greater equality in relationships and more emphasis on a stable fra45 mework will make it more difficult to motivate this group to migrate. Two or several people40in the family, rather than one person, must believe that 20 idea. 28 36 find it 44 52 60 emigration would be a good They will more important to have AGE grandparents close at hand as both of them will have jobs. Many of them will have invested in a house and this will make them less mobile. This type of family will also be older and more well-established than previously, which would make migration more expensive and risky. The parent group – generation X – will aspire to senior jobs as they feel FIGUR 8 they have done their bit in the trenches. They have reached a certain age, are thinking about their children and their education, and will be more seACCOMODATION

STANDARD OF LIVING

28



COMFORTABLE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT

OPPORTUNITIES TO LEARN LANGUAGES

29

ST. KITTS AND NEVIS 72

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 78

TONGA 74 HAITI 82 JAMAICA 83 GUYANA 86 SURINAME 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 lective in their 0choice of international assignments and jobs. Convenience and family packages from employers will play a central role for the mobility of this group. They are also members of a generation that in all probability will be prepared to commute and work at home sometimes in order to create balance between their work and their private lives.

FIGUR 6

Free 2 (Baby ALL COUNTRIES 80

Boomers in 2020) INDIA The “free 2” 93 is a stage of life that for many will be characterised by greater SOUTH AFRICA 92 favourable financial circumstances, and new opportunities. freedom, more TURKEY 90 This BRAZIL group will be more open-minded than formerly about learning new 89 skills and experimenting. It is more likely that they will have a higher AUSTRALIA 88 education CHINA and 86 regard work as a commitment that confers status, gives SLOVAKIA 85 meaning, opens up networks, and leads to professional and personal ARGENTINA 85 This is a rapidly growing group and many of its members development. CHILE will not see 84 themselves as a “burden” because of their age, but rather as a RUSSIA 84 social resource. Many of them will therefore realise themselves through FRANCE 82 meaningful social or commercial work or contribute to society in some UK 81 other SPAIN way. 80

connection with recruitment and migration. This is particularly the case as many people of this age feel they have entered a new stage of life that offers a number of new, exciting opportunities for development, inspiration, and meaning. As many of them can look forward to perhaps as much as 30-40 years of good health, the prospect of spending their retirement playing golf, taking holidays, and cultivating other leisure pursuits may not appear sufficient for their needs in the long run. #2 – Temporary mobility

Global workers can choose between emigrating permanently, temporarily, or in a circular manner. Table 5: Migrant segments

CANADA 77

HONG KONG 74 Many baby boomers will have reached the pinnacle of their careers, and GERMANY 70 will be beginning to enter the labour market. The more spatheir children re timeUSA they69have, the more they will once again be prepared to be mobile HUNGARY 69 and POLAND take on 65 international assignments before retiring. Studies carried out in recent years NETHERLANDS 62 for the purpose of investigating longer-term career cycles indicate that the mobility from age% 62 in particular. 0 desire 20 for 40 60 increases 80 100

Temporary

Primary education

Secondary education

Tertiary education

Basic school

Vocational

Academic

Seasonal and cyclical work in agriculture and construction

Projects: investments in construction and civil engineering

Education purposes / young people

Au pairs

Stationed abroad

Stationed abroad Trainees Specialists Researchers

Figure 7:5 Willingness to become internationally mobile at a higher age.

FIGUR 7

Resourceful elderly people

% 80

Recession sends people home

Young students and experience travellers

Manpower at multinationals

65

Middle-aged

Global talent

60

Savings/investments

Construction sector workers

Health staff, trained for specific sectors

Resourceful elderly people

Circular

75 70

55

Creative people and artists

50

Permanent

45

Forced migration Elderly/pensioners

40 20

28

36

44

52

60

AGE

As figure 7 shows, the desire of the free 2 to become part of the global workforce is in line with that of the free 1. It is a more loyal group, however, whose members only want to settle in one place, or at most, in two places, before retiring, something that also makes this group interesting in

Family reunification

FIGUR 8

30


ACCOMODATION


31

Temporary migration: A significant (and growing) amount of

migration on the part of global workers is temporary. There are several reasons for this, such as lower transport costs, which have reduced the expense of temporarily working abroad and visiting family at home more frequently. Young people (free 1) can save money, which they can use to establish a family, or a business, or to pay for an education. Parents can work abroad for a shorter period of time without it being necessary to uproot their families. Recipient countries also have sharper focus on the advantages of temporary immigrant workers. They can return to their home countries when there is no longer a need for their manpower and, as they do not usually take their families with them, they make no demands on welfare services and create no burden on the state for elderly care later. The advantages for the emigration country often include a reduction in unemployment rates and money sent to the country with no permanent loss of manpower. This is sometimes described as a win-win-win situation − for the immigrant and the emigrant countries − as well as for the migrant who can improve his or her competences. The reverse of the coin is the risk of mental or physical exhaustion and privation, particularly where people with little education are concerned. Some countries have actually begun to institutionalise what could be described as a system of ruthless exploitation (Singapore, the United Arab Emirates). Circular migration: Circular migration refers to migrants who

return to their own countries. This is always the case with temporary emigration, where it could take the form of repeated migration (e.g. in connection with international assignments for the same or different companies). Permanent migration: These global workers are not always sure

whether they will be migrating permanently or temporarily when they leave their native countries. Some will have had the opportunity to obtain a temporary work or study permit abroad, but will end up by finding their dream job and staying in the destination country on a more permanent basis. Some will find a spouse and will therefore no longer be interested in going home. Temporary migrants: are often, but not always, without families, whi-

le permanent migrants are often, but not always, accompanied by families. In practice there is a fluid transition between the various types of migration. An immigration country could be compared to a house which the permanent immigrants enter by the front door, the temporary immigrants by the side door, and the illegal immigrants by the back door. Once immigrants have first entered a country, the categories become increasingly fluid, and this allows them to switch between the various types. Just as temporary migration is gaining ground, it must be expected that circular migration will do the same. In step with strong economic growth in many new economies and improved transport and communication, an 32


increasing number of people will have the opportunity to reap the benefits of becoming part of the global workforce – for shorter or longer periods of time. This will make circular migration far more relevant in the future and could also weaken migrants’ interest in becoming assimilated in the destination country. The true globalists

A small but growing group, with no particular focus on individual destination countries or roots in a specific country of origin is truly globally mobile. This group primarily comprises millennials who have open minds about any country that offers new opportunities – and preferably has an environment that contains like-minded people. Migration is neither temporary, permanent, nor circular, but depends on circumstances. The members of this group are internationally-oriented and are more attracted by cities than by countries. #3 – Mobility and ways of life

In addition to the mobile baby boomers – the free 2 – there are several other groups of migrants such a single people, people with little education, and women, who will be of increasing importance in the future and who it is therefore relevant to mention here. Single people: The number of single people is growing as more

people temporarily or permanently reject the idea of living in a classic nuclear family – in order to pursue a career, for instance, or because they have divorced. More people are also capable of looking after themselves financially. This is not least due to the increasing level of education for women all over the world, which is creating a new, resourceful workforce that is often single, sometimes permanently. Single people will not necessarily reject the idea of having children, and studies have shown that choosing to become a single parent will not always reduce their mobility. In 2007, Cortes & Tessada carried out a study entitled “Cheap maids and nannies: How low-skilled immigration is changing the labour supply of high-skilled American women”6. This study showed that there was a positive connection between the supply of poorly-educated immigrants in the country and the likelihood that educated women will return to fulltime employment. While poorly-educated female immigrants represented 1.5 per cent of the US workforce, they comprised more than 22 per cent of manpower in private homes, and 17 per cent of those who worked for laundry services. Similarly, low-paid immigrants represented 2.5 per cent of the workforce but comprised 23 per cent of all gardeners. Single people prove in general to be more mobile than other groups at all socio-economic and generational levels. They are flexible and easier to integrate into the labour market and at companies without concerns about family reunifications and family packages. They are also more often willing to put their work and international assignments before their relationships. REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

33

FIGUR 7

% 80

Low-paid and unskilled manpower: Low-paid and unskilled

immigrants are playing an increasingly central role in the service sector, which offers families, single providers, and other single people the services that make it possible for them to maintain their mobility and their connection with the labour market. Poor unskilled workers: also have most to gain by becoming glo-

bal workers because migration makes it possible for them to improve their living standards most dramatically. There is a number of pull factors such as easier access to education facilities for their children, higher wages, and the opportunity to provide for their families, etc., that they cannot obtain in their country of origin. But paradoxically, poor people are as a rule not nearly so mobile as those with a higher education because migration is expensive and risky. Only 3 per cent of Africans live in a country other than that they were born in, for instance – and less than 1 per cent live in Europe. Even though many Africans would like to migrate, not all of them have the necessary resources to do so. Therefore, many of them choose shorter migration routes and internal migration because of the lower risks and costs involved.

75

but they also want70the opportunity to take part in family life. In the future, employees will not only look for a specific company, but to an equal 65 extent consider whether the company’s brand, the attractiveness of the 60 region and the city in question, the country’s geographical location, the 55 cultural climate and facilities, etc., support a given lifestyle. In order to be 50 competitive, companies must ask themselves what they can do for their global employees 45 to a greater extent. They must present family packages if necessary, help 40 employees to become integrated at and outside the workplace, and in the long20 term, actively promote the attractiveness AGE 28 36 44 52 60 of their region and local area to gain greater prominence and become more attractive to global talent. Figure 8:8 Important information when global workers FIGUR 8 for new jobs look ACCOMODATION STANDARD OF LIVING COMFORTABLE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT OPPORTUNITIES TO LEARN LANGUAGES

Female migrants: The level of education for women is increasing all

over the world. Women comprise 60 per cent of all university students in the United States and Europe and almost 70 per cent of university students in variuos places in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. Higher numbers of highly-educated women are also entering the labour market. Many companies are incorporating initiatives designed to attract more female talent and to retain them with the help of such measures as extended work-life balance initiatives, as well as initiatives to appoint more women to higher management posts. The total share of female migrants in the world has remained at about 50 per cent, but there are about 40 per cent more female than male migrants among the highly educated. This figure could still increase as companies begin to focus more on women in their recruiting drives and manager development programmes.7 2.3 What do global workers want?

Global talent wants reasons to immigrate – not reasons to emigrate! As many of the developed countries and the new growth economies will be confronted with similar demographic challenges and fiercer competition in the future, the ability to attract human capital and global talent will become increasingly important. But what is global talent looking for? Unfortunately, the answer is not just high wages, good living conditions, and plenty of leisure time. The global employees of the future want to develop within their own, specific fields and within a number of other fields. They want varying, challenging, and preferably international tasks, 34


RELOCATION ARRANGEMNETS TAXES LOCAL FACILITIES TRANSPORT LINKS INTERESTING CAREER OPPORTUNITIES FOR MY PARTNER CLIMATE CONTACTING OTHER FOREIGN EMPLOYEES ADVICE ON SCHOOLS AND UNIVERSITIES AVAILABILITY OF A RELOCATION MANAGER ABILITY TO COMMUTE FROM THE COUNTRYSIDE SPECIAL SECTION ON THE WEBSITE FOR FOREIGNERS LOCAL SHOPPING / ENTERTAINMENT 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

%

A study carried out by Intelligence Group in 2009 among highly-educated workers showed that housing conditions, living standards, security, language and culture, relocation opportunities, taxation, and family-related factors were rated highly as decisive pull factors9. Even though the willingness to migrate is on the increase, the rating of housing conditions, relocation arrangements, and the availability of a relocation manager show that global workers have a strong need for the process to be supported and secure throughout. Pull factors when looking for companies

Studies of the millennial generation show that they believe multinational companies will be more important and have greater influence than most REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

35

countries in the future – particularly on the international labour market where multinationals can offer the opportunity to work on a wide range of jobs in a number of different countries and cultures. Highly-educated global workers will therefore be more inclined to choose companies of a size that makes it possible for them to specialise and grow within their framework.

(Endnotes) 1 2

CIFS Members Report #4/2008: The Young Seniors 2020; CIFS, Future Suburbs , May 2005. Gorman, P; Nelson, T; & Glassman, A. (2004). The Millennial Generation: A strategic Opportunity. Organizational Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 3, 2004, pp. 255-270.

3 4

PAC. (2010). Managing Tomorrow’s People: Talent Mobility 2020. PriceWaterhouseCooper. Zemke, R; Raines, C; Filipczak, B (2000): Generations at Work: Managing the Clash of Veterans, Boomers, Xers, and Nexters in Your Workplace, New York: AMACOM

5

Table 6: 10 Important factors for global workers

6

IG!. (2009). Get ready for the International Recruitment Rally. Intelligence Group. Cortes & Tessada (2007). Cheap Maids and Nannies: How low-skilled immigration is changing the labor supply of high-skilled American women. The Brooking Institute & University of Chicago.

Important pull factors at companies (in order of priority):

Important pull factors in countries (in order of priority):

7

– Interesting work

– Personal security

8

IG!. (2009). Get ready for the International Recruitment Rally. Intelligence Group

– Opportunities for professional

9

IG!. (2009). Get ready for the International Recruitment Rally. Intelligence Group

– Language classes – Help in finding housing – Career opportunities – Repatriation schemes – Help in finding child care and schools – Paid visit to the country before beginning work

development

Wittenberg-Cox, A. (2006). Why women mean business. Understanding the emerging of our next economic revolution.

10 Oxford Research. (2006). Danish Expat Study 2010. Oxford Research & Copenhagen Post.

– Existence of interesting job and career opportunities – Career improvement options – Quality of the health care system – The environment – (green and clean) – Open, hospitable population

Studies show that mobile, global workers look for companies, regions and countries that support an internationally mobile lifestyle and ensure continuity at the same time. The study referred to above was carried out in Denmark, but similar studies carried out by PwC, for instance, emphasise the same circumstances. The three most important pull factors are: personal development and training, flexible working hours, and assistance in finding accommodation. Needs naturally also differ and are determined by life stage. The younger generations want growth and personal development; global workers with families want family packages, while the baby boomer generation focuses more on the cultural and social climate in the country in question, as well as on meaningful assignments. The factors that all groups of global workers have in common is that they want to grow as individuals and to create a balance between working life and leisure, and that they want help to establish themselves, and also, if necessary, to leave the country in question.

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37

3.1 Uncertain future supply?

Principal points: - It is uncertain which elements of a political, social, and economic character will be decisive for the supply of global workers and migration flows. – There are four scenarios for the development of migration in which growth and the openness of society are decisive for the pattern of migration and the need for foreign manpower. – Clusters, knowledge networks, and various collaborative constellations can help to attract global talent as it is motivated by career opportunities.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding how migration will develop in the future. Globalisation is characterised by the heightened, international mobility of goods, capital, ideas, cultures, and people. Human mobility, however, has not grown to anything like the extent that the other forms of mobility have, with the exception of tourism and business travel. Broadly speaking, in 2010, the same percentage of the world’s population migrated as was the case 50 years ago, i.e. about 3 per cent. However, the number of global workers has naturally risen dramatically as the world’s population has grown. There was massive migration from Europe to the New World before World War I, with 14 per cent of Ireland’s population, 10 per cent of Norway’s population, and 7 per cent of the Swedish and British populations leaving their native countries. From 1950 up to 2010, the direction of migration changed, and movement is now primarily from the former colonies to the industrialised world. The question today is how the pattern of migration will develop in the future. Whether the number of global workers will rise or fall depends on supply, demand, and barriers to migration, as a consequence of restrictive immigration policies, for instance. It is uncertain which elements will decide whether the supply of global workers will be reduced or accelerate. The various elements of uncertainty are shown in table 7 and discussed in greater detail on the following pages. The chapter concludes with four scenarios suggesting what the global supply of manpower could be towards 2020.

Chapter 1

The most important and relevant of the elements of uncertainty mentioned above are discussed in the following, and, with this as the point of departure, four scenarios for future migration are drawn up.

Scenarios for the future supply of talent

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39

Table 7: Elements of uncertainty that will influence future migration

Either

Or

Crisis, low growth rate, and unemployment.

High growth rate and shortage of manpower due to aging population.

More restrictions: Immigrants are graded on the basis of competences and culture.

Incentives targeting talent, etc.

’Death of distance’. Work/studies at home.

’This is where it’s all happening’. Locations (hot spots) become more important.

More global migration

Only regional migration from countries in the same cultural sphere.

More internal mobility/migration.

The world becomes more multicultural.

Monocultural clusters live peacefully side by side.

Nations become more monocultural, conflicting values.

Push: more people migrate as a result of economic distress.

Pull: attraction of cities and clusters in connection with value creation/lifestyles.

Demand declines due to outsourcing of jobs.

Demand from a growing service sector, (welfare and experience economies).

Migration leads to wage gaps in individual countries and the equalisation of wage gaps between countries.

National wage gaps are limited with the help of minimum wages and collective agreements.

Company-driven immigration: Employers are responsible for recruitment, integration, repatriation.

40

Both/and

Public/private partnerships.

Immigration driven by public authorities: States/cities attract young talent with the help of branding.


#1 – Low growth: manpower, no thanks – talent, yes please

Most countries will experience a greater or lesser degree of unemployment during the next five to ten years. Employee recruitment and retention will therefore have been moved further down the list of company priorities, while efficiency and productivity will have been moved further up. The top priority in the individual countries will be to find jobs for their existing inhabitants, e.g. the unemployed and people receiving transfer income. Reducing expenditure in this latter area will have particularly high priority due to major deficits in public finances. Periods of low growth often lead to less migration. In times of uncertainty people will be more inclined to stay in their existing jobs than to look for new jobs. Older people will defer retirement as their homes may have fallen in value, or they fear that private and public pensions will be less favourable in the future. There will be fewer opportunities for young people and global workers. This development will often be exacerbated by the public authorities, which will reduce immigration quotas. In 2009, Spain reduced quotas from 16,000 to 1,000; Italy from 70,000 to 0; and South Korea from 72,000 to 17,000. The Employ American Workers Act was passed in the United States, making it more difficult for US companies to obtain visas for well-educated foreign manpower. It is often easier to tighten up restrictions than to relax them, however, and this could make it difficult to achieve the level of flexibility provided by immigration when there is a new economic upswing. Immigrants in Austria, Denmark, Italy, and Spain accounted for more than 40 per cent of the growth in employment during the economic upswing from 2003 to 2007, and, where Great Britain was concerned, this was as much as 71 per cent. On the other hand, in a world with low growth rates, nations, cities, and companies will focus more sharply on creating growth. This can primarily be done through such means as entering new markets, being more innovative, and creating new growth companies. Often small companies will grow big with the help of new, innovative products and business models. Immigrants have not least proved to be capable entrepreneurs who can create growth through innovation. This makes it all the more important to attract global talent, people who can make a positive contribution to innovation. They can add new impulses and diversity and make companies more capable of tackling the meeting of different cultures. Globalisation must to a great extent create new growth in the future.


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#2 – Conflicting values and more grading of competences and ‘cultural compatibility’

The combination of the financial crisis and sharper focus on conflicting values has led to a polarisation of attitudes in a number of Western countries. There is an increasing tendency in countries such as Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, France, Great Britain, Germany, and Sweden for the conflict of values to become more acute. There has been a pronounced polarisation of attitudes in the United States, where like-minded people band together in geographical areas with the result that their attitudes are reinforced and become more extreme. If these tendencies are further reinforced, it could lead to more restrictions on immigration and more ‘grading’ of immigrants. Such grading can be based on competences and on ‘cultural compatibility’ and thereby limit immigration to the few whose cultural background matches that of the existing culture. Restrictions can be supplemented with special incentives in the form of a lower level of taxation, for instance, in order to attract particularly desirable immigrants. They could also include citizens from a given country’s own diaspora who there is a need to entice back to the country, or who can act as ambassadors abroad. It would be an advantage for companies that need foreign talent to help strengthen the integration of immigrants so that this is done in as positive a manner as possible. This is also important because it could prevent immigrants leaving the country after a relatively short period of time. #3 – More internal mobility and migration rather than immigration?

Heightened internal manpower mobility and migration in a country will often be an alternative to immigration. In a situation characterised by crisis, unemployment, and a sharper conflict of values, many governments will prefer to solve the problem of a lack of manpower with the help of internal mobility applied to geography, industry, trade, and competence. However, there are major obstacles to this mobility, especially during a crisis. Falling house prices make moving more difficult. Many people might prefer to live on transfer income and casual jobs rather than move to a growth centre with much higher house prices and the accompanying risk of unemployment. Even though there may be a surplus of manpower in a country, it may still be necessary to import workers from abroad. The more prosperous a country is, the less mobility there will be. This applies in particular to established families who own their own homes and depend upon two full-time incomes. The greater the geographical sorting based on ethnic and socio-economic affiliations, etc., the more difficult it will be for people to find a new area that is felt to be just as good or better than the existing area of residence. This limits mobility and increases the need for foreign manpower. Tendencies that can be seen, not least, in the United States.

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Companies can help to obtain attractive rental accommodation for newcomers as part of their HR strategy, which would make internal and foreign migration easier. #4 – Who powers migration: employers or the public authorities?

Historically, migrants and their networks have been the primary motive force behind immigration. Developments are now moving in the direction of far more controlled and selective policies for attracting the right competences. This controlled pull strategy could be chiefly employer powered or powered by the public authorities. Employer-powered migration means that people who have a job waiting for them, and therefore will not be a burden on the public coffers, will be admitted to a given country. Multinational companies will account for an increasing share of global employment. It is conceivable that a visa could be introduced and issued in return for a guarantee on the part of companies for their global employees to migrate freely in a number of countries. It has traditionally been possible for states and cities to be selective and turn away immigrants, but they have not usually played an active role as prime movers (pull) for immigration. In the future, we will to an increasing extent see states and cities compete to attract talent, entrepreneurs, and researchers, etc., in order to stimulate innovation, entrepreneurship, and the motivation of multinational companies to establish branches at the location in question. More student places will be made available at institutes of education to foreign students, workplace integration will be strengthened by demands for practical training placements for foreigners, etc. States and cities have the opportunity to make a special effort to attract different segments – women with children, specific lifestyle groups, and people with an interest in culture, sports, or nature, as well as newlyqualified people, and graduates from selected institutes of education. As many different circumstances can be important for the choice of destination on the part of attractive migrants, close collaboration and partnerships between companies, universities, primary schools, cultural institutions, and local government, etc., will be necessary. #5 – ‘The world is flat’ or ‘the world is spiked’?

Digitalisation, cheaper transport, and new forms of communication reduce the significance of distances, so why move people at all? The easiest and cheapest things to move on the net are immaterial products, services, capital, education, and knowledge. The next cheapest things to move are physical products. People are the most cost-intensive commodity to move around, not only where travel itself is concerned, but also in connection with housing and infrastructure and, not least, the social and cultural costs of transplantation.


43

Therefore, one future scenario is that we will be moving bits and bytes, capital, goods, and services around, but that people will increasingly stay put because moving them is too expensive. Slaughterhouses will move production to countries where labour is cheap instead of importing guest workers. Multinational companies will employ local, cheap manpower, also for management jobs, rather than sending their own executives (and their families) abroad. More internal knowledge sharing in groups of companies and more communication with business partners can be carried out with the help of video conferencing and e-learning. This development was dubbed the ‘death of distance’ by The Economist as early as the 1990s, and described later by authors such as Thomas L. Friedman in his book, The World is Flat. The alternative scenario is that location will become increasingly important, as described by, among others, Richard Florida, in his book Who’s Your City? from 2008. In a world where creativity, innovation, and experiences are becoming more and more important, physical density is a necessity. Specialisation, diversity, intensity, and the critical mass that can promote innovation are heightened by the emergence of megaregions and cluster formation. The advantages of growth centres more than compensate for what they cost in the form of soaring house prices and overcrowding. Over time, there will be an accumulation and a densification that will reinforce the positive spiral and make growth centres even more attractive. These two scenarios are not necessarily alternatives but could, on the contrary, exist side by side and mutually reinforce each other. Polarisation occurs when activities are located in precisely those places in the world where values can be created best and/or cheapest, independently of former national and local ties. Talent and creative people move to hot spots where they have the best framework for bringing their skills into play. The more crowded, the better. The higher the prices, the better as prices constitute an efficient sorting mechanism when it comes to which people one will meet on an everyday basis. The financial crisis and recession will probably strengthen ‘the world is flat’ scenario rather than ‘the world is spiked’ scenario, which incorporates several ‘bubble’ elements. Companies must constantly keep an eye on these developments in connection with their recruitment and placement strategies – on where is it necessary to wear high heels, and where is it permissible to wear “sensible shoes”.

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#6 – Equality or growth – a false dilemma?

There is a classic dilemma that involves whether to pursue a high growth rate and thereby create more inequality, or to pursue a high level of equality and therefore a more moderate growth rate. For some years, the Scandinavian countries have had some success in refuting this ‘doctrine’ by being among the ten richest countries in the world at the same time as they have maintained a very high level of equality. Immigration policies play a central role where the problem of equality is concerned. The United States acts as a magnet for some of the brightest talent in the world, people who enter the country by the front door, as well as for the uneducated who often enter by the back door as illegal immigrants. Immigrants with a low level of education make their contribution by working from day one, but at very low wages. They perform many jobs in the service sector while the talent contributes with innovation and new businesses. This growth model has led to a relatively big increase in GDP, but to a more moderate increase measured by per capita GDP, as well as to considerable and still growing inequality. Unlike the United States, there is very little immigration in Japan but, for the past 20 years, there has been a lower increase in GDP while, on the other hand, there is less inequality. The existing workforce is highly efficient, and productivity and per capita GDP are on the increase because, among other things, the population is declining in numbers. The level of education is growing and is not ’diluted’ by the ongoing immigration of poorly-educated manpower. European countries are also faced with a similar choice. In step with the increase in prosperity, higher levels of education, and more demands on immaterial values at work, many jobs in the service sector are no longer attractive for the domestic workforce and many of these jobs cannot be automated (yet). There is therefore a choice between raising wages sufficiently so that ’natives’ will be prepared to do these jobs, or to import people who are willing to do them for lower wages. The public sector also employs many people is such service jobs. Future migration and companies’ HR strategies depend not least on whether the choice falls on the more open US model, with more, low-paid service jobs, on the more closed Japanese model, or on a selective model, where the sole interests are in talent and in avoiding acute bottlenecks in critical areas.


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3.2 Strategies for attracting global talent

Table 8: Four scenarios for attracting global manpower in the future

There are many methods and strategies that can strengthen competitive power in relation to attracting the right immigrants. One is to look at the special characteristics of the countries, regions, cities, and companies that attract many migrants. Is it possible to compete with them or learn from them? Another method is to look at the particular reasons various types of migrants have for migrating and try to discover how to brand the specific advantages of a country, region, or city and thereby make them more attractive to migrants.

open society

low growth rate

Regions of the World – Low growth rates lead to increased unemployment, but demographic developments slow down the speed of this. Early retirement helps. – Increased division of the world into regions characterised by protectionism between major global economic blocs. Trade and migration become regionalised. – More production jobs retained in or even moved back to the West. – EU’s position as a ’bulwark’ and ’guarantor’ for a – while cut back – European welfare model strengthened. – European minimum wage agreed. – Manpower migration in Europe broadly speaking solely within the EU. In the United States, China, and India

Global minds – Increasing shortage of manpower covered by immigration. Everybody with a job in hand receives an entry permit, as long as the minimum wage requirement is fulfilled. – Trade unions lose ground. There are national minimum wages and a major spread with regard to wages, competences, and status on the labour market. – The service sector expands and employs many immigrants and others with a lower level of education. New accommodation is built for a growing population. – GDP increases in absolute figures, while per capita GDP stagnates because there are more people with a lower level of education. – More inequality in incomes and more restricted social security payments.

Nationalism thrives – Growing global challenges in the form of terrorism, worsening climate, and trade wars. – Youth unemployment leads to major social unrest. – Great external pressure on borders (push). – Protectionism and nationalism spread. – Increasing differences between EU Member States leads to a weakened EU. – Self-sufficiency and many low-paid green jobs. – Migration and immigration rigidly controlled by populist governments. – National barriers to mobility between EU Member States re-emerge to a certain extent. – Circular immigration and reunification of peoples across the many (new) borders.

Selective immigration – Major manpower shortage primarily counteracted through more automation and outsourcing, not through immigration. – Higher retirement age also helps to reduce demand. – Focus on competence development and jobs for everybody. – Highly selective immigration: only ’bottlenecks’, critical jobs, and jobs at global companies give foreigners access to the labour market. – Competence and cultural adaptability are decisive. – Growing per capita GDP, but stagnating GDP in absolute figures. – Low level of unemployment strengthens public finances and reduces taxes.

closed society

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high growth rate

Recruiting strategies differ: Recruiting foreign manpower in bigger countries can be carried out by targeting areas from which many global workers emigrate. Smaller countries and companies are often more flexible and can make use of different, more creative methods of recruitment. For example, it could be an advantage for smaller countries to seek niches. They can concentrate their efforts geographically and thereby obtain extensive knowledge of and penetration in selected places by collaborating closely with individual countries, cities, or universities. As networks and knowledge have a tendency to develop exponentially, critical mass can be achieved if global workers from the same place attract others from their networks and communities. Focus can be directed towards countries that relatively few people emigrate from, but in which global workers possess a high level of competence. Or smaller countries can focus on recruiting specific segments of global workers such as single people, women, elderly people, or similar groups. Recruiting on the part of smaller players need not necessarily be carried out in the most familiar, or biggest, countries where there is major international trade, many subsidiaries, or in which many people are stationed. Competition for the best workers will often be fierce here compared with smaller countries. Where, for instance, sales are concerned, the biggest global brands will attack globally familiar coastal areas in eastern China, while somewhat smaller players will concentrate on less internationalised, internal regions in western China. Develop new collaborative constellations and clusters

Global talent will migrate to new growth markets that have specialised business clusters. And they will be interested in how easy it is to enter and leave the given country and the workplace, and in the support they can obtain while working in the labour market in question. This will in future make it decisive for organisations to enter into new and different collaborative constellations so that it becomes easier to attract the right manpower. REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

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The business community, institutes of education, and states must collaborate to a greater extent in order to attract global talent, and to create specialised environments if they are to survive in the face of global competition. Companies must play an active role in drawing up immigration legislation; there must be sharper focus on growth clusters in strategically located regions with more collaboration between the university world, companies, and public bodies. Investments in the education sector must be increased in order to strengthen the local talent pool and to transform the various regions into obvious destinations for global talent. In addition, it will often be a good idea for smaller countries and their businesses to join forces for a coordinated effort and to concentrate on creating regional business and knowledge clusters, and thus to increase the recruitment of global talent.

assignments could also be attractive for potential candidates. In addition, companies can develop international partnership models through which they can establish exchange agreements with other companies to give their employees an opportunity to try out new challenges. This model could also strengthen the more informal networks and broaden companies’ international interfaces. In the future, companies will be obliged to make use of new, more flexible and, at times, more radical strategies to secure global talent. It is already the case today that companies are more likely to use internal and external networks, whether these are branches or subsidiaries in those countries in which they are represented, or business partners in other countries that can help them recruit global employees when necessary. These initiatives will continue unabated.

Being part of a cluster collaboration also offers small and medium-sized enterprises a number of advantages, among which are more exposure abroad with regard to potential candidates. Companies that are part of a cluster have more resources at their disposal and can launch more comprehensive campaign activities to promote the cluster, for instance. Similar activities are already being performed by the Medicon Valley Alliance in the Øresund region. Medicon Valley is a collaboration between Copenhagen Capacity and Invest in Skåne and was established to attract and provide services for companies and talent in the fields of biotech and life sciences. Among other things, they help new companies to find relevant business partners that are organised in clusters and help them to survive by enhancing the dynamism of these clusters. Develop a global, flexible HR strategy

Many companies are not geared to handle global talent, which can lead to a waste of resources. One factor that global talent is attracted by is the opportunity to develop and strengthen its competence profile. Similarly, many companies – and particularly small and medium-sized enterprises – may find it difficult and a strain on resources to be alone with a global view in relation to personnel planning and may lack the ability to put together a sufficiently interesting talent management programme. Companies can use new collaborative constellations in order to make this task easier. Over and above taking part in developing regional business clusters, companies can focus on developing international knowledge and company networks. These networks depend on more informal contacts, but can provide companies with far broader interfaces with future employees. At the same time, the fact that a company has an informal network that employees can draw on, spar with, and possibly collaborate with on

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THE WORLD IN 2020 NORTH AMERICA GDP growth 2010-2020: 11% R&D investment growth: 21% # of wealthy top 50 cities : 19 # of largest top 50 cities: 4

SOUTH AMERICA GDP growth 2010-2020: 32% R&D investment growth: 37% # of wealthy top 50 cities: 5 # of largest top 50 cities: 9 50

EUROPE GDP growth 2010-2020: 9% R&D investment growth: 13% # of wealthy top 50 cities: 7 # of largest top 50 cities: 4

AFRICA GDP growth 2010-2020: 61% R&D investment growth: n/a # of wealthy top 50 cities: 1 # of largest top 50 cities: 4


ASIEN GDP growth 2010-2020: 61% · R&D investment growth: 38% · # of wealthy top 50 cities: 16 · # of largest top 50 cities: 39

OCEANIA GDP growth 2010-2020: 15% R&D investment growth: n/a # of wealthy top 50 cities: 2 # of largest top 50 cities: 0 REpport: GLOBAL TALENT RALLY / NOVEMBER 2010 / www.CIFS.dk

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VERDEN

LITERATURE Chapter 2

Chapter 2

Carlings, J. (2001). Aspiration and Ability in international migration. Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo.

Goldirova, R. (2007). EU proposes ‘blue card’ to attract skilled migrants. URL: http://euobserver.com/9/25029

Cortes & Tessada (2007). Cheap Maids and Nannies: How low skilled immigration is changing the labour supply of high skilled American women. The Brooking Institute & University of Chicago. Goldman Sachs (2007). BRICs and Beyond. Goldman Sachs Economic Group.

Gorman, Nelson & Glassman (2004). The Millenial Generation: A strategic Opportunity. Organizational Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 3, 2004, pp. 255-270 IG! (2009). Get ready for the International Recruitment Rally. Intelligence Group

NORDAMERIKA BNP vækst 2000-2010: 11% R&D investeringsvækst: 21% Antal rigeste top 50 byer: 19 Antal største top 50 byer: 4

EUROPA BNP vækst 2000-2010: 9% R&D investeringsvækst: 13% Antal rigeste top 50 byer: 7 Antal største top 50 byer: 4

KPMG (2008). The Global Skill Convergence. KPMG International

IOM (2010). Facts and Figures: Global Estimates. International Organization for Migration, URL: http://www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/ about-migration/facts-and-figures/lang/en

Oxford Research (2010). Swedish Expat Study 2010. Oxford Research & Copenhagen Post Oxford Research (2006). Danish Expat Study 2010. Oxford Research & Copenhagen Post

Juan Somavia, ILO. (2008). International Migrants Day. International Labour Office MSNBC (2007). Sowing Seed: From Cornell In Qatar to Monash In Malaysia, satellite campuses are a booming business. MSNBS.com NIC (2008). Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. National Intelligence Council, US Government Printing Office Gallup (2009). Greener Gras: Gallup and Economist. TNS Gallup

PWC (2010). Managing Tomorrows People: Talent Mobility 2020. PriceWaterhouseCooper Zemke, R., Raines, C, & Filipczak, B. (2000). Generations at work: Managing the clash of veterans, boomers, Xers, and nexters in your workplace. New York: AMACOM American Management Association. UNESA (2008). Trends in Total Migrant Stock: The 2008 Revision. United Nations Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.

UNESA (2009). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision. United Nations Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.

Wittenberg-Cox, A. (2006). Why women mean business. Understanding the emerging of our next economic revolution.

UNESA (2008). World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. United Nations Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.

Chapter 3

UNESA (2006). International Migration report 2006: A global assessment. United Nations Economic and Social Affairs Population Division.

Bishop, B. (2008). The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of LikeMinded America Is Tearing Us Apart. Houghton Mifflin Company

UNDP (2009). Human Development Report 2009: Overcoming Barriers: Human Mobility and Development. United Nation Human Development Division

The Economist (2009). Limiting Migration: People Protectionism. The Economist, July 2009. (2008). Global Migration: Keep the Borders open. The Economist January 2008

UNHABITAT (2010). State of the World Cities 2010/2011- Cities for All- Bridging the Urban Divide. UN-Habitat.

EUROSTAT (2010). Europe in Figures: EUROSTAT Yearbook 2010. Eurostat / European Commission. Florida, R. (2008). Who’s Your City? How the creative economy is making where to live the most important decision of your life. Basic Books. IMF (2010). World Economic Outlook: Recovery, Risk and Balancing. International Monetary Fund. PWC (2010). Managing Tomorrows People: How future of work to 2020. PriceWaterhouseCoopers. PWC (2010). Managing Tomorrows People: Millennials at work. PriceWaterhouseCoopers. WB (2008). Migration and Remittances Factbook. The World Bank.

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SYDAMERIKA BNP vækst 2000-2010: 32% R&D investeringsvækst: 37% Antal rigeste top 50 byer: 5 Antal største top 50 byer: 9

AFRIKA BNP vækst 2000-2010: 61 R&D investeringsvækst: n Antal rigeste top 50 byer: Antal største top 50 byer:

Executive Summary Vi er vidne til en voldsom opblomstring af gratis indhold og tjenester på Internettet og i den fysiske verden. Dette indhold er skabt og distribueret af brugerne selv i frivillige, selvregulerende netværk. Disse forhold har vi beskrevet og diagnosticeret i vores rapport Anarconomy fra 2009. Nærværende rapport tager udfordringen op som handler om hvordan man tjener penge i et anarconomt marked, for, som flere har påpeget ”vi kan jo ikke alle sammen leve af at klippe hinandens hår”. Vores svar ligger i denne rapport som bygger videre på ideerne bag anarconomy, men som tager sit udgangspunkt i, hvordan man kan skabe frugtbare forretningsmodeller, i et marked hvor alt hvad der kan digitaliseres, bliver digitaliseret, hvor prisen på digitale produkter går mod nul, og hvor det hele er mere eller mindre ude af kontrol. Kerneelementerne er stadig at viden og ideer samt digitale produkter har fundamentalt andre egenskaber end fysiske produkter, men vi ser også på hvordan de fysiske produkter går mod digitalisering. Desuden peger vi på hvilke egenskaber og services en forretningsmodel i et anarconomt marked bør indeholde og lægger vægt på at vise hvor tingene kan gøres anderledes, for at skabe bedre eksistensbetingelser i denne nye logik.