Government Reshuffle 2018 A Cicero Group overview

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After a challenging couple of days, Theresa May has completed her government reshuffle. While a huge amount of ink has b
Government Reshuffle 2018 A Cicero Group overview JANUARY

2018

Foreword After a challenging couple of days, Theresa May has completed her government reshuffle. While a huge amount of ink has been spilled on the subject, it is important to bear in mind that reshuffles are of far less interest to the general public than the amount of coverage they receive would suggest. A new project published by Demos today entitled ‘Citizens’ Voices’, based on extensive focus group research carried out towards the end of last year, reminds us that typical voters can often recall the names of only a handful of politicians, and of those most frequently mentioned (apart from the PM), only Boris Johnson is actually in the Cabinet. So we should not expect to see any major fluctuations in the headline polling numbers as a result of this reshuffle. Most people won’t really know or mind that David Lidington has got Damian Green’s old job and that David Gauke’s got Lidington’s old job and so on. That’s not to say the reshuffle doesn’t matter – but it is also important to keep a sense of perspective about the whole thing. The biggest problem for Theresa May on day one was failing to reconcile the reshuffle which we saw on the day with the one that had been widely trailed in the media over the weekend. It’s true that we were only told to expect around six Cabinet changes – and that’s not far off of what we got – and that those in the ‘top jobs’ would be unchanged. However there were strong hints at moves for Jeremy Hunt, Greg Clark and Chris Grayling, and when these failed to materialise, seemingly due to Hunt and possibly Clark refusing to budge, it left the PM emerging from the day looking weaker rather than stronger. Questions have been raised once again by Conservative sources about the political nous of those around the Prime Minister and why the whole process was not managed more smoothly. Reshuffles are notoriously tricky occasions, as any number of political memoirs and diaries will attest to, but some of the problems encountered by Number 10 on Monday seemed entirely avoidable. Surprise has also been expressed at why the PM gave in to some Ministers who wanted to stay where they were but refused to compromise on Justine Greening when she declined a move to Work and Pensions. Greening is a northern, working class, openly gay woman. When the message was that the reshuffle would create a

more diverse government, it seemed slightly odd that Greening was the one against whom May decided to take a stand. On day two of the reshuffle the PM did begin to make progress on enhancing the diversity of her government and bringing in more fresh faces. Many members of the 2015 and 2017 intakes were given jobs, including an increased number of women and BME Ministers. It may be that the ultimate aim is to conduct another reshuffle in the not too distant future to further promote some of these new faces and create a Cabinet which looks noticeably fresher and more diverse. However after this week’s difficult experience, the PM may also ask herself whether that would be worth the risk. Overall, this is not a reshuffle that is likely to fundamentally alter the fate of this Prime Minister. We have known since 10.01pm on 8th June last year that she is a leader with significantly diminished authority. But she has so far survived that result and the other notable mishaps that have followed, including a disastrous conference speech and the loss of key Cabinet allies amidst harassment allegations. So why shouldn’t she survive this one? It is still the case that there is not an obvious successor, and that few people are queuing up to inherit the job of delivering Brexit. The process of bringing though the next generation of Tory talent has begun in earnest, and that is the positive message that May will hope people remember from this reshuffle. Unfortunately, it seems destined instead to be added to a list of memorable mis-steps. Simon Fitzpatrick Account Director Cicero Group [email protected] @simonpatfitz

Ben Roback Account Manager Cicero Group [email protected] @RobackBen

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Key changes around the Cabinet

Rt Hon Brandon Lewis MP (Great Yarmouth) Conservative Party Chairman and Minister without Portfolio • Brandon Lewis replaces previous incumbent Sir Patrick McLoughlin and will also serve as Minister without Portfolio. • Prior to becoming Chairman, he served as a Home Office Minister (2016-18), as Minister for Housing and Planning (2014-16), and as a junior Minister in the same department (2012-14). He was also a member of the Work and Pensions Committee (2010-12). • Elected to Parliament in 2010, he is a qualified barrister and a former company director. He supported Remain in the EU Referendum. Analysis: Lewis has been handed the vital role of revitalising operations at Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ), which was seen to be behind the curve at last year’s General Election. He was an important figure in Theresa May’s leadership campaign team and is well regarded across the Tory party as a trusted and reliable operator. His cross-cutting Minister without Portfolio brief means he is also likely to be a key media spokesperson for the Government.

Rt Hon Esther McVey MP (Tatton) Secretary of State for Work and Pensions • Esther McVey has been appointed as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, the fifth holder of this post in two years, replacing David Gauke. • McVey was previously Deputy Chief Whip (2017-18) following Gavin Williamson’s appointment as Defence Secretary. She has also served as Minister of State at the Department for Work and Pensions (2013-15) and Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Disabled People (2012-13). • McVey represented Wirral West from 2010 before losing her seat in 2015. She was then re-elected as MP for Tatton, George Osborne’s former seat, in 2017. • Prior to becoming an MP, McVey was a TV presenter and businesswoman. She supported Leave in the EU Referendum. Analysis: McVey’s appointment is a logical move by the Prime Minister due to her previous experience working in the Department for Work and Pensions as a Minister. Representing a north-west constituency, McVey will be challenged with tackling social mobility across the UK in addition to the roll out of Universal Credit. Nevertheless, she is considered a rising star within the Conservative Party and her selection to succeed Osborne as the Conservative candidate for Tatton hints she is well-regarded within the Party.

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Key changes around the Cabinet

Rt Hon David Gauke MP (South West Hertfordshire) Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice • David Gauke has been appointed as Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice, replacing David Lidington. • He was previously Secretary of State at the Department of Work and Pensions (201718), and a longstanding Treasury Minister having worked his way up the ranks from Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, to Financial Secretary to the Treasury and most recently Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2010-17). He was a Shadow Treasury Minister in Opposition (2007-10) and also a member of the Treasury Committee (2006-07). • Elected to Parliament in in 2005, he was previously a solicitor in the financial services group at corporate law firm Macfarlanes. Despite being a lifelong Eurosceptic, he supported Remain in the EU Referendum. Analysis: Gauke is considered a calm and effective operator, having been a trusted Minister in the Treasury for seven years. Although his tenure as Secretary of State for the Department of Work and Pensions lasted only six months, his appointment as Secretary of State for Justice has been welcomed as, unlike some of his immediate predecessors, he has a background in law as a qualified solicitor. Having also served as a Shadow Treasury Minister, this new role will be the first time in over a decade Gauke has not had a brief directly related to finance or pensions. He will hope to be given enough time to prove himself in this post.

Damian Hinds MP (East Hampshire) Secretary of State for Education • Damian Hinds has been appointed Secretary of State for Education, replacing Justine Greening MP who resigned after turning down the position of Secretary of State for the Department of Work and Pensions. • Hinds was previously Employment Minister at the Department of Work and Pensions (2016-18), Exchequer Secretary (2015-16) and a Government Whip (2014-15). He is also the former Chair of the APPG on Social Mobility and spent time on the Education Select Committee (2010-12). • Elected to Parliament in 2010, he had previously spent 18 years working in the pubs, brewing and hotel industries, in Britain and abroad. He supported Remain in the EU Referendum. Analysis: Hinds is a new face in May’s reshuffled Cabinet, yet is ‘another’ Oxford University educated white male and replaces Justine Greening - the only openly gay woman in the Cabinet who also has a working-class background. However, he has ministerial experience both in the Department for Work and Pensions and the Treasury, and a track record of taking strong interest in education policy. Importantly, he is also a champion of social mobility – a key priority for May – and is a former grammar school pupil. The PM will hope that she now has an Education Secretary whose policy outlook closely corresponds to her own.

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Key changes around the Cabinet

Rt Hon David Lidington MP (Aylesbury) Minister for the Cabinet Office and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster • David Lidington has been appointed Minister for the Cabinet Office and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, succeeding Damian Green though without the title of First Secretary of State. • Previously, Lidington served as Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice (2017-18) and prior to that as Leader of the House of Commons in (2016-17). Under David Cameron, he was the longest serving Minister for Europe in British history (201016), a position he also shadowed in Opposition. • Elected to Parliament in 1992, he previously worked for BP and Rio Tinto, and acted as a special adviser to Douglas Hurd during his time as Home and Foreign Secretaries. He supported Remain in the EU referendum, having played a key role in the renegotiation with Brussels that preceded it. Analysis: Lidington is another trusted Minister who has been moved to a cross-cutting role in Government. While he may be disappointed to have lost a senior departmental brief such as Justice, he will have an important coordinating role and many of the responsibilities previously held by Damian Green, albeit without the First Secretary of State title that made Green the PM’s de facto deputy, and will chair many important Cabinet Committees. His seniority is also marked out by the fact that he will deputise for May at PMQs when she is away.

Rt Hon Karen Bradley MP (Staffordshire Moorlands) Secretary of State for Northern Ireland • Karen Bradley has been appointed the Northern Ireland Secretary, replacing previous incumbent James Brokenshire who resigned from the Government due to ill health. • She was previously the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (201618), Minister for Preventing Abuse, Exploitation and Crime in Theresa May’s Home Office (2014-16), and a Government Whip (2012-14). She also served on the Work and Pensions Committee (2010-12). • Elected to Parliament in 2010, she previously worked as a fiscal and economic consultant, and had spells at Deloitte & Touche and KPMG; she is an expert in tax affairs. She supported Remain in the EU Referendum. Analysis: Seen as an ultra-loyal Conservative and a safe pair of hands with a policy brief, Bradley will be seen by the Prime Minister as a trusted member of her Cabinet. However, she takes over the Northern Ireland brief at a particularly precarious time, with continued deadlock at Stormont and the spectre of Brexit as well as the unresolved issue of the Irish border. She will need to show deft political skill to navigate these many challenging issues, but if she succeeds she may well be a candidate for further promotion in future.

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Key changes around the Cabinet

Rt Hon Matt Hancock MP (West Suffolk) Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport • Matt Hancock has been promoted to Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, replacing the previous incumbent Karen Bradley. • He was previously Minister of State in DCMS responsible for overseeing the Government’s digital policy (2016-18), and has held a number of Ministerial positions, including Minister for the Cabinet Office and Paymaster General (2015-16), joint Minister in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, the Department for Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Education. He has also served on both the Public Accounts Committee (2010-12). • Elected to Parliament in 2010, he formerly served as an economic adviser and chief of staff to George Osborne during his time as Shadow Chancellor, and was an economist at the Bank of England. He supported Remain in the EU Referendum. Analysis: Seen as an ambitious and up-and-coming Minister, Hancock has held several positions in Government throughout his Parliamentary career. Despite previously being a loyal ally of George Osborne, Hancock is regarded by the Prime Minister as a loyal Member of her Cabinet, not least due to his decision to remain in Government despite being demoted from his position as a Cabinet Office Minister and Paymaster General in July 2016. A former Digital Minister, Hancock is experienced with matters relating to UK Data Policy – having been responsible for steering GDPR and Data Protection Bill across Government.

Caroline Nokes MP (Romsey and Southampton North) Home Office Minister for Immigration (attends Cabinet) • Caroline Nokes has been appointed as Minister of State for Immigration at the Home Office, replacing Brandon Lewis. She will attend Cabinet but is not a full member. • Prior to this appointment, she served as the Parliamentary Under-Secretary for the Cabinet Office (2017-18), as well as a Parliamentary Under-Secretary for the Department of Work and Pensions (2016-17). She has also been a member of the Education Committee (2014-16). • Elected to Parliament in 2010, she was previously a policy adviser in the European Parliament, Chief Executive of the National Pony Society, and a Conservative Councillor. She supported Remain in the EU Referendum. Analysis: Nokes takes over a key policy brief for the Government, with the issue of immigration being one of the most dominant issues in UK politics over the last few years. As Immigration Minister, Nokes will be responsible for devising the framework for a post-Brexit migration policy. This will include dealing not only with the challenge of how the UK brings immigration numbers down, but how a post-Brexit migration policy can meet the UK’s economic needs.

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Key Government Departments - Ministerial Teams

HM Treasury Change

Name

Position

Philip Hammond

Chancellor of the Exchequer

No change

Liz Truss

Chief Secretary to the Treasury

No change

Mel Stride

Financial Secretary to the Treasury

No change

John Glen

Economic Secretary to the Treasury

Promoted from Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for the Department for Culture, Media and Sport

Robert Jenrick

Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury

Promoted from the backbenches

Analysis: Many in financial services will be interested in the change in the Government’s City Minister (Economic Secretary to the Treasury), with John Glen replacing Steve Barclay, who had been well received by the sector in his short tenure. Besides that, the Treasury remains relatively unchanged with key ministers such as the Chancellor and the Chief Secretary of the Treasury remaining in place. The Government’s core economic policies, from addressing the UK’s productivity crisis to continued (albeit gradual) deficit reduction, will remain unchanged following the reshuffle. Department for Exiting the EU Change

Name

Position

David Davis

Secretary of State for Exiting the EU

No change

Lord Callanan

Minister of State

No change

Robin Walker

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

No change

Steve Baker

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

No change

Suella Fernandes

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

Promoted from the backbenches

Analysis: The reshuffle brought about another promotion to DExEU from the Brexit-supporting Tory backbenches. Suella Fernandes joins Steve Baker as another former chair of the influential European Research Group in DExEU, in an attempt by Number 10 to keep influential Brexiteers on side. With one change, no fundamental shift in policy is approach will come out of the Department, including its stance on issues such as a transition period and the UK’s financial obligations. It is also worth noting that the Brexit negotiations have become dominated by Number 10 and less so by DExEU – with the Prime Minister and Cabinet Office official Olly Robbins taking an increasingly active role in the process.

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Key Government Departments - Ministerial Teams

Ministry of Justice Name

Position

David Gauke

Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice

Moved from Work and Pensions Secretary

Rory Stewart

Minister of State

Moved from Minister of State at Foreign Office and International Development

Phillip Lee

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Youth Justice, Victims, Female Offenders and Offender Health

No change

Lucy Frazer

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

Promoted from the backbenches

Lord Keen of Elie

HM Advocate General for Scotland and MOJ spokesperson for the Lords

No change

Change

Analysis: The MoJ has seen quite substantial changes in its Departmental Ministers, with a new Secretary of State and two new Government Ministers appointed. Widely respected on issues relating to finance, David Gauke will seek to bring his experience as a solicitor at a City law firm to the new role. Key priorities will continue to be issues relating to prison reform and changes to the court system. Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Name Greg Clark Claire Perry

Position Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy Minister of State (Minister for Energy and Clean Growth)

Change No change No change to role but now attends Cabinet

Sam Gyimah

Minister for Higher Education

Promoted from Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Ministry of Justice

Richard Harrington

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Minister for Energy and Industry

No change

Lord Henley

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

No change

Andrew Griffiths

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

Promoted from Government Whip

Analysis: Resisting reported attempts to sack him, BEIS Secretary Greg Clark remains in office. He is likely to continue his ongoing work on the industrial strategy, as well as the Government’s wider skills and productivity agenda. New Higher Education Minister Sam Gymiah will likely have to deal with the issue of higher education funding as a top legislative priority.

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Key Government Departments - Ministerial Teams

Department for International Trade Name

Position

Liam Fox

Secretary of State for International Trade

No change

Greg Hands

Minister of State for Trade Policy

No change

Graham Stuart

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

Promoted from Government Whip

Baroness Rona Fairhead

Minister of State for Trade and Export Promotion

No change

Change

Assistant

Analysis: The Department for International Trade remains largely unchanged following the reshuffle and with the UK still a member of the EU’s Customs Union, the work of the Department will remain focussed on scoping the possibility of future trade agreements and constructing the framework of an independent UK Trade policy. Department for Work and Pensions Name

Position

Esther McVey

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions

Promoted from Deputy Chief Whip

Alok Sharma

Minister of State for Employment

Moved from Minister of State for Housing and Planning

Sarah Newton

Minister of State for Disabled People, Health and Work

No change

Guy Opperman

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Pensions and Financial Inclusion

No change

Kit Malthouse

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

Promoted from the backbenches

Baroness Buscombe

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (Lords)

No change

Change

Analysis: The Department has witnessed a number of Ministerial changes, including promoting former DWP minister Esther McVey as Secretary of State. The pressing priorities for the new Ministerial teams will be tackling social mobility across the UK, as well as ongoing work regarding the roll out of Universal Credit. Guy Opperman remains Pensions Minister, providing at least some continuity for the sector.

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Key Government Departments - Ministerial Teams

Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Name

Position

Change

Matt Hancock

Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport

Margot James

Minister of State

Promoted from Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Tracey Crouch

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Sport and Civil Society

No change

Michael Ellis

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

Moved from Deputy Leader of the House of Commons

Lord Ashton of Hyde

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State

No change

Promoted from Digital Minister

Analysis: DCMS underwent more changes than most, with three new appointments. But the promotion of Matt Hancock from Minister to Secretary of State provided some continuity. Having steered the digital portfolio in his previous brief, he has a grip of the key departmental issues moving forward in 2018 – namely with GDPR and data regulation.

On the way up In October 2017, Cicero Group charted some of the rising stars in the Conservative Party who we tipped for success. While anticipating the Prime Minister may take a cautious approach to a reshuffle, with little political capital to spend and the overhanging risk of sending disgruntled colleagues to the back benches, we thought a rejig of the Cabinet table and ministerial teams more likely than not. Our Rising Stars Index profiled 10 MPs drawn from the 2010, 2015 and 2017 intakes who we expected to fare well in the event of a reshuffle.

How did we do?

B Afolami

V Atkins

R Jayawardena

N Ghani

R Sunak

K Badenoch

J Cleverly

T Tugendhat

D Raab

J Rees-Mogg

Rising Stars Index

Out of the ten Conservative MPs we profiled, six have been promoted in the reshuffle. Of the remaining four – Rees-Mogg, Tugendhat, Jayawardena and Afolami – two harbour realistic leadership ambitions for the near future and remain very much ones to watch.

Ones to watch: Rising stars in the Conservative Party

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The New Look Cabinet

Name

Position

Change

Theresa May

Prime Minister

No change

Philip Hammond

Chancellor of the Exchequer

No change

Amber Rudd

Home Secretary

No change

Boris Johnson

Foreign Secretary

No change

David Davis

Secretary of State for Exiting the EU

No change

Gavin Williamson

Secretary of State for Defence

No change

Secretary of State for Health and Social Care Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice

Damian Hinds

Secretary of State for Education

Title amended to include Social Care Moved from Work & Pensions Secretary Promotion from Employment Minister

Liam Fox

Secretary of State for International Trade

No change

Jeremy Hunt David Gauke

Greg Clark Michael Gove

Secretary of State for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy Secretary of State for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs

No change No change

Chris Grayling

Secretary of State for Transport

No change

Sajid Javid

Secretary of State for Housing, Communities & Local Government

Title amended to include Housing

David Mundell

Secretary of State for Scotland

No change

Alun Cairns

Secretary of State for Wales

No change

Karen Bradley

Secretary of State for Northern Ireland

Moved from Culture, Media & Sport Secretary

Penny Mordaunt Matt Hancock Esther McVey Brandon Lewis David Lidington Baroness Evans

Secretary of State for International Development Secretary of State for Culture, Media & Sport

No change Promoted from Digital Minister

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions

Promoted from Deputy Chief Whip

Party Chairman and Minister Without Portfolio Minister for the Cabinet Office and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

Promoted Minister

Leader of the House of Lords

No change

from

Immigration

Moved from Justice Secretary

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The New Look Cabinet

Also attends Cabinet Name

Position

Change

Liz Truss

Chief Secretary to the Treasury

No change

Andrea Leadsom

Leader of the House of Commons

No change

Julian Smith

Chief Whip

No change

Jeremy Wright

Attorney General

No change

Minister of State for Immigration (Home Office) Minister of State for Climate Change and Industry (BEIS)

Promoted from Work & Pensions Minister No change to role but now attends Cabinet

Caroline Nokes Claire Perry

Conservative Party appointments James Cleverly

Conservative Party Deputy Chair

New appointment

Chris Skidmore

Conservative Party Vice Chair for Policy

Moved from Constitution Minister at the Cabinet Office Moved from Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury

Andrew Jones Kemi Badenoch

Conservative Party Vice Chair for Business Engagement Conservative Party Vice Chair for Candidates

New appointment

Ben Bradley

Conservative Party Vice Chair for Youth

New appointment

Maria Caulfield

Conservative Party Vice Chair for Women

New appointment

Rehman Chishti and Helen Grant

Conservative Party Vice Chairs for Communities Conservative Party Vice Chair for Local Government Conservative Party Vice Chair for Training & Development

Marcus Jones James Morris

New appointments Moved from Local Government Minister at DCLG New appointment

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