Greater Toronto Area - Avison Young

Second Quarter 2018 / Industrial Market Report

Greater Toronto Area

Market Facts

2.1% Availability rate in the Greater Toronto Area

$7.20 psf Average asking net rent in the Greater Toronto Area

18 Number of properties in the Greater Toronto Area with more than 250,000 sf available

6.4 msf Industrial space under construction in the Greater Toronto Area

Partnership. Performance.

Market Overview The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) industrial market’s fundamentals improved steadily through the second quarter of 2018. Availability continued to decline across most submarkets as rents climbed even higher into $7-plus territory. New supply has accelerated, as 1.5 million square feet (msf ) was added to the under-construction pipeline during the second quarter, bringing the total amount of space underway to 6.4 msf. First-half building completions total 3.2 msf – equivalent to nearly three quarters of 2017’s full-year result. By year-end, a further 2.7 msf is scheduled for completion, putting 2018 on pace to exceed last year’s total by more than 30% as developers respond to strong demand. Though not reflected in the second-quarter numbers, the third quarter is already off to a strong start with Amazon’s blockbuster announcement that it has struck a deal for a new purpose-built 1-msf fulfillment centre in Caledon. A noteworthy and growing trend in the market is that of food warehouse and distribution users taking occupancy

of brand-new facilities in submarkets across the GTA. Food-sector tenants have accounted for more than 15% of space leased and/or occupied in new buildings (completed and under construction) in the GTA over the past 18 months. Some of the larger deals included The Kraft Heinz Company (774,614 sf ), Sobeys (383,194 sf ), Congebec (228,000 sf ) and Gay Lea Foods Co-operative (218,317 sf ). The recent announcement from Gordon Food Service that it will build a new 330,000-sf state-of-the-art distribution centre in the Town of Ajax bolsters this trend. Uncertainty surrounds the impacts of the tariffs recently imposed by the U.S. government on Canadian goods on industrial space users. Most reports indicate that it is too early to predict the long-term fall-out. However, most feel that the impacts will not be substantial. In the GTA, the greatest impact is expected to be felt by the automotive manufacturing industry, largely concentrated in Brampton, Oakville and Oshawa. avisonyoung.com



GTA Market Monitor The overall GTA availability rate dropped a further 40 basis points (bps) from the end of the first quarter to 2.1% at the end of the second quarter – down 110 bps year-over-year. Availability in GTA East increased during the second quarter, while the GTA Central, North and West markets each experienced a decrease. GTA North recorded the largest decline in availability, falling 70 bps to finish the quarter at 1.7%. This was closely followed by GTA West, which posted a 50-bps decline during the second quarter, to 2.7%. Large lease transactions characterized the second quarter. The Forzani Group signed a lease for a massive 1.3-msf facility, to be constructed at 10254 Hurontario St. in Brampton. Meanwhile, Olympia Tile International renewed its lease (844,069 sf ) at 100 Royal Group Cres. in Vaughan, and DHL Global Forwarding inked a deal for 555,105 sf at the former Sears warehouse at 9501 Highway 50 in Vaughan. On the investment front, second-quarter 2018 sales volume rose $7 million quarter-over-quarter to $787 million, and the average sale price per square foot (psf ) edged up by $17 during the second quarter to $179 psf. The GTA’s net asking rental rate continued its upward trajectory in the second quarter, reaching an average of $7.20 psf. Once again, the highest average net asking rent could be found in GTA North at $7.97 psf, while GTA East continued to be the most economical market with an average of $6.33 psf. Market conditions will affect businesses that are very price-sensitive. Rapidly increasing rents, combined with recent interest-rate hikes and tariffs on steel, mean that users seeking to relocate to new-built modern facilities when their leases expire may find themselves in a situation where their rents have nearly doubled. Second-quarter completions totalled 1.9 msf in seven buildings, with the bulk of deliveries coming in the GTA West and GTA North markets. A further 36 buildings (totalling 6.4 msf ) were under construction, with GTA West leading the way. An additional 37 buildings were in the preleasing pipeline, with the potential to add a further 12.6 msf across the region if built.

Market Inventory

Total Available Area

Average Net Asking Rent

Construction Pipeline

875 msf

18.7 msf

$7.20 psf

6.4 msf / 36 Buildings

Availability Trends

Occupancy Cost Trends $12

5%

$10

3% 20 2% 10

Avg. Gross Rent ($psf )

4%

30

Availability Rate

Total Available Area (msf )

40

1%

0 Q3'17

Direct Available Area (sf )

Q4'17

Q1'18

Sublet Available Area (sf )

$6 $4 $2

0% Q2'17

$8

$0

Q2'18

Q2'17

Availability Rate (%)

Q3'17

Q4'17

Avg. Net Asking Rate ($psf )

Q1'18

Q2'18

Avg. Additional Rent ($psf )

Inventory (sf )

Direct Avail. Area (sf )

Sublet Avail. Area (sf )

Total Avail. Area (sf )

Avail. Rate (%)

Avg. Net Asking Rent ($psf )

Avg. Addt'l Rent ($psf )

Avg. Sale Price ($psf )

Current Completions (sf )

Under Construction (sf )

Preleasing (sf )

GTA Central

258,457,443

4,218,535

290,595

4,509,130

1.7%

$7.56

$4.37

$147

0

1,692,743

1,322,515

GTA East

48,021,115

774,403

35,033

809,436

1.7%

$6.33

$3.63

$158

0

670,368

159,000

GTA North

185,526,899

2,568,611

537,955

3,106,566

1.7%

$7.97

$3.71

$196

550,503

1,300,327

1,036,113

GTA West

383,316,403

8,533,402

1,779,066

10,312,468

2.7%

$6.94

$3.22

$194

1,317,895

2,734,114

8,346,750

Greater Toronto 874,635,060

16,094,951

2,642,649

18,737,600

2.1%

$7.20

$3.73

$179

1,868,398

6,397,552

12,664,378

Market


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GTA Central Market Monitor Available space in the Central market decreased 10 bps quarter-over-quarter to 1.7%. The average asking net rent of $7.56 psf represented an increase of $0.17 during the quarter. The Central market held steady in the second quarter, with minimal change to availability rates across all submarkets. The highest average asking net rents are found within the City of Toronto ($10.86 psf ), while Etobicoke offered the most affordable rent at $6.15 psf during the second quarter. Notable lease transactions included Tomato King inking a new 20-year deal for 134,150 sf at 191 Evans Ave. in Etobicoke, Innotech Precision leasing 41,887 sf at 50-70 Novopharm Crt. in Scarborough, and Universal Motion signing a new lease to relocate to 31 City View Dr. in Etobicoke (20,620 sf ). On the sales front, 915 & 945 Lake Shore Blvd. E. (67,700 sf ) traded for $30.9 million in a land exchange deal. Canada Post, which had acquired the building in November 2017 for the same price, flipped it to Toronto Economic Development Corp., which plans to utilize the building for three film and television production studios. Construction commenced on an additional 504,150 sf in the Central market during the second quarter, spread between three projects – bringing total square footage under construction to almost 1.7 msf. Notable starts included the future home of The Hillman Group at 1395 Tapscott Rd. (373,000 sf ) in Scarborough, as well as a second building (101,151 sf ) at Investors Group’s redevelopment of the former Home Depot distribution centre at 2233 Sheppard Ave. W., following the commencement of an 823,500-sf build kicked off by the Toronto Transit Commission’s (TTC) lease of 550,000 sf in the first quarter of 2018.

Market Inventory




258 msf

4.5 msf

$7.56 psf


Availability Trends

Occupancy Cost Trends

7

5%

$12

5 3%

4 3

2%

2 1%

1 0

0% Q2'17

Q3'17


Q4'17

Q1'18


Q2'18


4% Availability Rate


6

$14

$10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Q2' 17


Q3' 17 Avg. Net Asking Rate ($psf )

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18


Market

Inventory (sf )




Avail. Rate (%)






Preleasing (sf )

East York

9,100,881

61,042

0

61,042

0.7%

$6.98

$4.28

$131

0

0

0

Etobicoke

74,946,521

2,107,356

99,161

2,206,517

2.9%

$6.15

$3.16

$150

0

50,000

0

North York

68,089,427

789,371

65,525

854,896

1.3%

$6.50

$3.96

$152

0

924,665

194,065

Scarborough

65,313,957

1,002,517

108,815

1,111,332

1.7%

$7.29

$4.33

$131

0

698,078

1,128,450

Toronto

35,934,858

191,976

17,094

209,070

0.6%

$10.86

$6.12

$160

0

20,000

0

GTA Central

258,457,443

4,218,535

290,595

4,509,130

1.7%

$7.56

$4.37

$147

0

1,692,743

1,322,515

* Total figures for the GTA Central include additional submarkets not listed above (i.e. York).


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GTA East Market Monitor Overall, availability in the East market increased 20 bps to 1.7% during the second quarter. Ajax (0.2%) and Whitby (2.3%) performed well, posting drops in availability of 80 bps and 140 bps, respectively. After overall average asking net rents fell to $5.54 psf in the first quarter of 2018, net rent broke the $6-psf mark, rising to $6.33 psf during the second quarter. One of the largest deals of the quarter was for 565,000 sf of manufacturing, warehouse and office space comprising a new corporate headquarters for Kubota Canada. Located on 50 acres in Pickering’s new Innovation Corridor immediately east of the York Region/Durham Region border, the facility has the potential for future phased expansion. Likewise, Gordon Food Services leased and broke ground on a new 330,000-sf facility at 200 Salem Rd. N. in Ajax for a state-of-theart food distribution centre. On the sale front, Panattoni Development transferred 1702 Tricont Ave. in Whitby (183,030 sf ) into an internal investment arm at a price of $13.7 million, and 1020 Brock Rd. S. in Pickering was acquired by private Canadian investor Chesben Holdings for $5.6 million at a reported 6.6% cap rate. Construction continued on the new speculative expansion (105,400 sf ) at KingSett’s existing 113,400-sf facility at 185 William Smith Dr. in Whitby. Two buildings remain in the preleasing stage in the East market, which would add upwards of 159,000 sf to the inventory if built, including PIRET’s 110,000-sf design-build at 980 Thornton Rd. S. which would be a twin to its existing and adjacent 1000 Thornton Rd. S. property. Also of interest, major development moved east into Clarington with Toyota Canada moving forward with construction of a new 350,000-sf Eastern Canada Parts Distribution Centre in Bowmanville. With the Highway 407 East extension to Highways 35/115 on schedule and Metrolinx announcing 2019 construction commencement on four new GO stations, development in Durham’s eastern end is intensifying. Market Inventory




48 msf

809,436 sf

$6.33 psf

670,368 sf / 2 Buildings

Availability Trends


3

4%

$12

2% 1 1%


2

Availability Rate


$10

3%

$8 $6 $4 $2

0

0% Q2' 17


Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18


$0

Q2'18

Q2' 17

Q3'17

Q4'17



Q1'18

Q2'18


Inventory (sf )




Avail. Rate (%)






Preleasing (sf )

Ajax

7,295,071

12,728

0

12,728

0.2%

$5.50

$3.46

-

0

0

0

Oshawa

13,615,804

191,090

0

191,090

1.4%

$6.62

$3.54

-

0

0

110,000

Pickering

10,999,972

367,006

1,650

368,656

3.4%

$6.17

$3.17

$158

0

565,000

0

Whitby

10,212,203

202,204

33,383

235,587

2.3%

$7.02

$4.33

-

0

105,368

49,000

GTA East

48,021,115

774,403

35,033

809,436

1.7%

$6.33

$3.63

$158

0

670,368

159,000

Market

* Total figures for the GTA East include additional submarkets not listed above (i.e. Brock, Clarington, Scugog and Uxbridge).


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GTA North Market Monitor The availability rate in the North market decreased 70 bps quarter-over-quarter, reaching 1.7% in second-quarter 2018. Sublease listings made up 12% of the total available area, down from 19% in the first quarter. Comprising more than 537,000 sf, the vast majority of the sublet space remains in the Vaughan market. The North market’s average asking net rent decreased $0.15 quarter-over-quarter to $7.97 psf and remains the highest among the GTA’s four industrial districts. Noteworthy lease deals during the second quarter included Olympia Tile’s renewal of its 844,069-sf lease at 100 Royal Group Cres. in Vaughan, DHL Global Forwarding’s new lease for 555,109 sf at the former Sears distribution facility (9501 Highway 50) in Vaughan (acquired by Metrus Properties in 2016), and Sobeys’ 383,200-sf build-to-suit deal with Anatolia Capital at 100 Gibraltar Rd., also in Vaughan. Notable sales in the North market included Rodenbury Investments’ purchase of 66 Leek Cres. in Richmond Hill from Solid General Contractors (the user) for $23.8 million, representing $134 psf. Vaughan remained the centre of new development in the North market during the second quarter. Construction commenced on three additional buildings, bringing the total area under construction to more than 1.3 msf, spread across eight projects. Over 550,000 sf of new construction was completed during the quarter, notably Condor Properties’ 220 Hunter’s Valley Rd. (250,000 sf ) in Vaughan, where State Window Corp. is the major tenant. Several buildings were added to the preleasing pipeline during the second quarter, bringing the total preleasing count to just over 1 msf – of which 956,113 sf is located in Vaughan. In other news, construction has commenced on the extension of Highway 427 through the Vaughan Enterprise Zone. The 6.6-km expansion will help improve traffic flow through the area, while unlocking land value along its route north of Highway 7 up to Major Mackenzie Dr. and beyond. Construction is expected to be complete in 2021.

Market Inventory




186 msf

3.1 msf

$7.97 psf


Availability Trends


6

3%

$14 $12

2%

3 2

1%

1

Avg. Gross Rent ($psf)

4

Availability Rate


5

$10 $8 $6 $4 $2

0

0% Q2' 17

Q3'17


Q4'17

Q1'18


$0 Q2' 17

Q2'18 Availability Rate (%)

Q3'17

Q4'17


Q1'18

Q2'18


Inventory (sf )




Avail. Rate (%)






Preleasing (sf )

Aurora

6,180,368

205,447

24,000

229,447

3.7%

$7.58

$3.32

$133

0

0

0

Markham

40,299,412

731,474

60,941

792,415

2.0%

$7.99

$3.89

$199

0

0

0

Newmarket

9,093,424

22,440

0

22,440

0.2%

$8.17

$3.37

-

0

0

0

Richmond Hill

14,160,532

129,697

33,488

163,185

1.2%

$8.60

$4.66

$188

0

0

80,000

Vaughan

110,161,486

1,479,553

419,526

1,899,079

1.7%

$7.50

$3.33

$210

550,503

1,300,327

956,113

GTA North

185,526,899

2,568,611

537,955

3,106,566

1.7%

$7.97

$3.71

$196

550,503

1,300,327

1,036,113

Market

* Total figures for the GTA North include additional submarkets not listed above (i.e. East Gwillimbury, Georgina, King and Whitchurch-Stouffville).


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GTA West Market Monitor The West market experienced a 50-bps drop in availability to 2.7% during the second quarter, returning to the declining availability trend experienced throughout 2017. Of significance, The Forzani Group inked a deal for a yet-to-be-constructed 1.3-msf facility at Panattoni Development Company’s 10254 Hurontario St. in Brampton. JYSK leased 393,000 sf at LaSalle Investment Management’s building at 6757 Northwest Dr. in Mississauga, and Sumitomo Electric Industries took occupancy of 341,000 sf at OPTrust’s newly constructed building at 307 Orenda Rd. in Brampton. The top investment transaction based on dollar value was Summit Industrial Income REIT acquiring 2486 Surveyor Rd. in Mississauga from Orlando Corp. for $37 million. Average net asking rents decreased by $0.15 quarter-over-quarter to $6.94 psf in the second quarter. The highest average net asking rent was found in Milton at $7.43 psf. Halton Hills continues to be the most economical GTA West submarket with an average net asking rent of $6.48 psf. Five buildings were completed during the second quarter, ranging from 150,000 sf up to 446,000 sf – and all were fully leased: 233 Madill Blvd. in Mississauga (446,000 sf, fully leased by SCI); 6360 Belgrave Rd. in Mississauga (303,000 sf, fully leased to Expeditors Canada); 2395 Logistics Dr. in Mississauga (228,000 sf, a cold-storage facility designed and built for Congebec); 100 Pillsworth Rd. in Caledon (191,000 sf, tenanted by Home Depot of Canada) and 7845 Heritage Rd. in Brampton (150,000 sf ). Crestpoint Real Estate Investments is in the process of redeveloping its existing Magellan Aerospace Limited property at 3160 Derry Rd. E. in Mississauga. Once the existing building is demolished, the plan is to a construct a new 228,000-sf facility (including 40,000 sf of office space) for Magellan Aerospace and redevelop the balance of the site (33 acres). This site will be in close proximity to the Pearson Transit Centre, currently being developed by the Greater Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA), and is within walking distance of the Malton GO station. A further 19 buildings totalling 2.7 msf are under construction, with an additional 23 buildings in the preleasing pipeline, amounting to 8.3 msf of future new supply.

Market Inventory




383 msf

10.3 msf

$6.94 psf


Availability Trends

Occupancy Cost Trends 5%

$12 $10

20

3% 2%

10

1% 0 Q3'17


Market

Brampton Burlington Caledon Halton Hills Milton Mississauga Oakville GTA West

Q4'17

Q1'18


$8 $6 $4 $2 $0

0% Q2' 17


4% Availability Rate


30

Q2' 17

Q2'18 Availability Rate (%)

Q3'17


Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18


Inventory (sf )




Avail. Rate (%)






Preleasing (sf )

96,001,876 26,858,259 14,084,188 8,050,636 21,456,455 188,127,429 28,737,560 383,316,403

1,152,753 538,019 82,487 1,233,000 1,411,291 3,275,666 840,186 8,533,402

80,572 5,356 522,400 0 0 1,080,301 90,437 1,779,066

1,233,325 543,375 604,887 1,233,000 1,411,291 4,355,967 930,623 10,312,468

1.3% 2.0% 4.3% 15.3% 6.6% 2.3% 3.2% 2.7%

$6.69 $7.39 $6.73 $6.48 $7.43 $7.00 $6.84 $6.94

$3.39 $3.46 $3.04 $2.48 $2.79 $3.71 $3.65 $3.22

$263 $116 $227 $170 $234 $194

149,632 0 191,103 0 0 977,160 0 1,317,895

660,078 72,481 253,692 45,000 0 1,503,282 199,581 2,734,114

2,366,975 67,502 3,430,004 400,000 869,587 1,030,371 182,311 8,346,750


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GTA

GTA West

GTA North

GTA East

GTA Central

Summary of Tenant Options

Available Space

No. of Bldgs. with Avail. Space

More than 250,000 sf

249,999 100,000 sf

99,999 50,000 sf

49,999 20,000 sf

Less than 20,000 sf

East York

4

0

0

0

1

3

Etobicoke

61

1

4

10

10

36

North York

53

1

2

1

11

38

Scarborough

61

3

0

4

10

44

Toronto

20

0

0

0

4

16

Market Total*

204

5

6

16

36

141

Ajax

2

0

0

0

0

2

Oshawa

5

0

1

0

2

2

Pickering

8

0

1

2

1

4

Whitby

7

0

1

0

2

4

Market Total*

23

0

3

2

5

13

Aurora

7

0

0

2

3

2

Markham

45

0

1

3

6

35

Newmarket

3

0

0

0

0

3

Richmond Hill

16

0

0

0

4

12

Vaughan

71

2

6

1

14

48

Market Total*

142

2

7

6

27

100

Brampton

37

0

2

9

6

20

Burlington

15

0

1

4

5

5

Caledon

7

1

0

1

2

3

Halton Hills

8

2

0

0

2

4

Milton

10

2

1

4

1

2

Mississauga

188

4

7

16

39

122

Oakville

30

2

1

2

4

21

Market Total

295

11

12

36

59

177

Overall Total

664

18

28

60

127

431

* Total figures for the GTA Central, GTA East and GTA North include additional submarkets not listed above.


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1


3

4

2

Significant Lease Transactions by Market #

Address

Market

Tenant

Size

Lease Type

11

10254 Hurontario Street

Brampton

The Forzani Group

1,300,000 sf

New

24

191 Evans Avenue

Etobicoke

Tomato King

134,150 sf

New

32

100 Royal Group Crescent

Vaughan

Olympia Tile International Inc.

844,069 sf

Renewal

43

Highway 407 & Brock Road

Pickering

Kubota Canada

565,000 sf

New


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$787M Total industrial investment volume for transactions greater than $1M during the second quarter

2485 Surveyor Road, Mississauga

York Region accounted for 28% of volume ($217 million), including a two-building portfolio sold by Epic Realty Partners to Summit for $70 million, while the region’s largest singleasset sale was that of 66 Leek Cres. in Richmond Hill by the user to Rodenbury Investments for $23.8 million. The City of Toronto recorded $182 million in sales, including a $30.9-million land exchange agreement for 915 & 945 Lake Shore Blvd. E. in the Port Lands by Canada Post to Toronto Economic Development Corp. Cap rates for single and multi-tenant properties compressed for the first time since third-quarter 2017 to 4.7% (-10 bps) and 4.9% (-20 bps), respectively – new historic lows. Partnership. Performance.

9% 8% 7%

4.9% 6%

4.7% 5% 4% '00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

Single Tenant Industrial

'11

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

'17

Q1'18 Q2'18

Multi Tenant Industrial

Investment Volume and Sale Price (Transactions over $1M) $1,400

$210

$1,200

$180

$1,000

$150

$800

$120

$600

$90

$400

$60

$200

$30

$0

Average Sale Price ($psf )

Summit Industrial Income REIT (Summit) acquired just over $135 million worth of industrial product, capturing three of the quarter’s top five sales. The Region of Peel remained the GTA’s most active, with $263 million in sales (33% of overall volume). The largest single-asset sale (by both transaction value and square footage) saw Summit purchase a 187,245-sf facility at 2485 Surveyor Rd. in Mississauga from Orlando Corp. for $37 million ($197 psf ) at a reported 5.4% cap rate.

10%

Average Cap Rate

Industrial sales were on par with the first quarter, with $787 million worth of properties changing hands in secondquarter 2018 for a first-half total of $1.6 billion – down 9% year-over-year. The average sale price per square foot across the GTA climbed to a historic high of $179. The sector is experiencing historically low availability (2.1%), strong demand and scarce new supply.

Capitalization Rates

Investment Volume ($ millions)

GTA Industrial Investment Market Highlights

$0 Q2'08

Q2'09

Q2'10

Q2'11

Q2'12

Q2'13

Investment Volume ($ Millions)

Q2'14

Q2'15

Q2'16

Q2'17

Q2'18

Average Sale Price ($psf )

Investment volume : all market deals $1M and up, excluding between partners and non-arms deals. Average Sales Price: all market deals only, includes deals with cap. rates. - 10,000 square feet and up, $1M and up.

Significant Sale Transactions Property

Total Price

Price Purchaser psf

Vendor

Epic Realty – Summit REIT Portfolio

$70,000,000

$218

Summit Industrial Income REIT

Epic Realty Partners Inc.

2485 Surveyor Rd.

$37,000,000

$197


Orlando Corporation

915 & 945 Lake Shore Blvd. E.

$30,892,912

Toronto Economic Development $456 Corp.

Canada Post

4455 North Service Rd.

$28,110,000

$114

Voortman Bakery

10862 Steeles Ave. E.

$24,891,000

$607 Pride Truck Sales Ltd.


North American Development Group

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avisonyoung.com © 2018 Avison Young Commercial Real Estate (Ontario) Inc., Brokerage. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: The information contained herein was obtained from sources which we deem reliable and, while thought to be correct, is not guaranteed by Avison Young. Acknowledgment: Data for graphs, charts and tables used in this report are sourced from Avison Young, Altus InSite and Realnet. Some of the data in this report has been gathered from third party sources and has not been independently verified by Avison Young. Avison Young makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof.

Bill Argeropoulos Principal & Practice Leader, Research (Canada) 416.673.4029 [email protected]

Warren D'Souza Research Manager, Toronto Suburban Markets 905.283.2331 [email protected]

Anthony Hong Research Analyst 905.283.2392 [email protected]

Charles Torzsok Research Analyst 905.968.8023 [email protected]

77 City Centre Drive East Tower, Suite 301 Mississauga, ON L5B 1M5 905.712.2100

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