Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report ...

NOVEMBER 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through October 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

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November 7, 2014

Executive Summary

The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.

Pace of Home Sales: October

Pace of Home Sales: Year To Date

Buyer Activity

Home Values: October

Home Values: Year To Date

Single Family Home Sales

107 homes sold in October 2014, marking a 23% increase compared to October 2013 when 87 homes sold -- and a 43% increase compared to October 2012.

Median sales prices increased (+19%) and average sales prices increased (+18%) when comparing October 2014 to October 2013.

d 1

882 homes sold thus far in 2014. This marks a 2% increase from the same time period in 2013 when 866 homes had sold, and a 24% increase over 2012 when only 714 homes sold.

Median sales prices and average sales prices both increased slightly (+1.45%, +1.31%) when comparing 2014 YTD to 2013 YTD.

94 buyers committed to buy in October 2014, compared to 70 in October 2013 -- marking a 34% increase in buyer activity over the past year, and a 4% increase over 2012.

656 single family homes have sold thus far in 2014, compared to a total of 766 in 2013. The median sales price has declined to $194,250.

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Days on Market: October

Days on Market: Year To Date

Townhouse Sales

Foreclosures

Supply

Lot Sales

Inventory

Price Per Square Foot

Land Sales

The median time it took for a home to sell was 124 days in October 2014, a 15% increase from 108 days in October 2013 but a 13% decline from 142 days in October 2012.

149 trustee deeds have been recorded in 2014 compared to 882 total home sales reported through the HRAR MLS during the same timeframe.

Inventory levels decreased in October 2014 to 636 residential properties currently for sale, marking no significant change from one year ago when 635 properties were for sale.

The median length of time on the market for homes selling thus far in 2014 is 117 days, a 3% decline compared to 2013 and a 20% decline from 2012.

The under $200k price ranges is balanced (six months of supply) but all other price ranges still show an excess (9 - 21 months) of housing supply.

Median price per square foot of single family homes has risen to $108/sf in 2014, up from $105/sf in 2013.

226 townhouses, duplexes and condos have sold thus far in 2014, compared to a 2013 total of 247 townhomes. The median sales price has increased to $151,000 thus far in 2014.

There have been 68 lot sales of less than an acre thus far in 2014, compared to 79 in all of 2013. Median sales prices have declined to $52,450 thus far in 2014.

48 parcels of land greater than an acre have sold thus far in 2014 compared to 68 land sales during all of 2013. The median price per acre has declined to $10,462.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 10/31/2014.

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November 7, 2014

HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

# Home Sales

November 7, 2014

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

October

56

75

87

107

22.99%

Year-To-Date (Jan-Oct)

657

714

866

882

1.85%

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

October

$182,000

$172,000

$160,000

$189,900

18.69%


$174,000

$175,000

$176,450

$179,000

1.45%

Average Sales Price

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

October

$185,106

$201,555

$176,011

$208,316

18.35%


$195,878

$198,884

$199,830

$202,454

1.31%

Median Days on Market

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

October

130

142

108

124

14.81%


149

146

121

117

-3.31%

Median Sales Price

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Home sales in October 2014 were the highest in any recent October, marking a 23% year over year increase in monthly home sales - and contributing to the now 1.85% year-to-date increase in home sales during 2014. The pace of home sales in 2014 has lagged behind 2013 all year long - until now. Prices also seem to be recovering,

slowly and steadily, with a 1.45% year-to-date increase in our market’s median sales price and a 1.31% year-to-date increase in the average sales price. Finally, homes are selling a bit (3%) more quickly than they were last year based on year-to-date data.


November 7, 2014

HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

# Home Sales

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

October

41

38

-7.32%

46

69

50.00%

Year-To-Date

324

301

-7.10%

542

581

7.20%

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. Rockingham County

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

City of Harrisonburg

Median Sales Price

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

October

$133,500

$170,000

27.34%

$175,100

$204,000

16.50%

Year-To-Date

$163,950

$170,000

3.69%

$189,950

$189,000

-0.50%

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Median Days on Market

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

October

108

106

-1.85%

106

132

24.53%

Year-To-Date

114

106

-7.02%

124

125

0.81%

If we dig a bit deeper into the sales data, looking at how the City and County are performing individually, the first thing we notice is that there has certainly been a decline in (YTD) sales pace in the City (-7.1%) that was not seen in the County (+7.2%). Of interest, however, is that the median sales price is increasing (+4%)

in the City, but has not increased (-0.50%) in the County. These price trends are observed when comparing January through October sales data for 2013 and 2014. Similarly, homes in the City are now selling more quickly both in the City (median of 106 days) as compared to in the County (125 days).


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Month-By-Month Home Sales History 140

2011

121

120

108

Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales

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November 7, 2014

103

100

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

67 60

52 47 40

39 40

51 46

67

78 77 73

77

95

84 81

94

2013 2014

112

103

101 97

80

112

2012

October 2014 107 Home Sales

107

107 95

92 87

77

79

68

80 79

87

79

75

67

66 61 55

60

56

58

56

OCT

NOV

DEC

38

20

0 JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

January kicked off the year with strong home sales (the best January in recent memory) but then the pace of home sales lagged significantly in February, March and April, hovering well below previous years. After breaking the cold snap, we did finally see strong home sales in May, June and July -- pulling us within 4% of the

JUL

AUG

SEP

YTD pace of home sales in 2013. The home sales market did not perform as well in August, however, dropping down to 101 home sales, as compared to 112 last August. September and October, however, have been a wonderful surprise, with home sales well above their levels in the same month in previous years.


November 7, 2014


Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 160 145

143 140

135 123 114 116

120

107

102 96

100

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87

84

103

96

93

90

90

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

80

76

80

93

100 98

96

56

91

59

102

94

91

76

75

70

69 60

112

107

68

58

56

40

20

Annual Pace: 1,199 contracts

Annual Pace: 1,141 contracts Annual Pace: 1,027 contracts

The pace at which buyers are signing contracts to buy real estate is often an excellent indicator of the future sales performance of our local market. It is encouraging to see month by month increases in contract activity since January of this year, and the year-over-year comparison for June (+51%), July (+5%), August (+19%), September

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

0

(+6%) and October (+34%) is an exciting trend as we close out 2014. When looking at the annual pace of contracts being signed, we should note that 1,199 buyers have commited to purchase homes in the past year, a slight tick above the previous 12 months.


November 7, 2014


Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1100

DEC

1000

1,014 927

900

864

800 700

d 1

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

NOV

758 694 636 587

794

786

715 657

713

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

601

638

867

882

780

775

700

571

588

479

476

366

385

381

301

285

301

230

217

224

147 98 45

139 78 40

151 85 39

2010

2011

2012

532 470 418

522 443

This pretty graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. To compare year-to-date figures, just look at how high the top of the light green segment of the bar chart extends. You’ll note that this year’s pace of home sales (882) is higher

284 181

668

OCT SEP AUG JUL

565

JUN

444

MAY

336 235

114 47

158 103 52

2013

2014

APR MAR FEB JAN

than every year over the past four years (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). We are likely to see 2014 home sales continue to increase beyond the 2013 pace over the next few months based on strong contract activity.


November 7, 2014


Inventory Levels (end of month)

800

700

655 619

600

572

587

605 599

628 639

661

676 685

663

675 679

693

705

692 688 636

635

608

584 529

555 550

500

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

400

0.2% Increase in Inventory

300

200

100

0

Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which be a big, significant,

weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels are quite stable (+1 house) over the past year.


November 7, 2014


Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes

Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos

600

500

487 462 436 434

447 449

464 466

486

507

526 518

520

529

549

539 535 527

490

478

460

451 402

423

412

400

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

300

200

168

157

136

164 153 158 150

173 175 169

159

145 145

148 155 150 144 133 127 132 138

166

157 161 158

100

0

Two things can be noted from the graph above -- first, inventory levels have not significantly changed in the past year, and second, there is much more variability in single family home inventory as compared to duplex / townhouse / condominium inventory. As shown above, there are currently 478 single family homes listed for

sale, as compared to 490 a year ago (-2%), and 487 two years ago. The inventory levels for attached dwellings (duplex, townhouse, condo) have also stayed rather stable, with 158 active listings, compared to 145 one year ago (+9%) and 168 two years ago.


November 7, 2014


Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

600

500

431

444 433 437

420 393 392

400

462 466 463

483 488 480 481 474 479 441

423

407

401 403

367

d 1

454

383 384

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

300

224 199 200

179

195

204 196 195 202

217 214 219

200 194

177

162

172 166

185

201 200

210 217 212 207 182

100

0

Trends in inventory level currently seem to transcend the City / County divide. When looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has been a small decline (-6.2%) in the number of properties for sale. In the County, however, there has been slight increase(+2.9%) in the number of homes for sale. Despite relatively

small changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.


November 7, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes

$250,000

1,800

+29%

$122,900

$116,000

600

+6%

-0.3%

+4%

$127,700

+17%

829 800

+14%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$122,588

1,000

+14%

1,153

$169,900

1,071

d 1

+8%

$149,000

1,200

1,248

-3%

+1%

+1%

-25%

$179,000

-13%

-3%

$176,000

-5%

$175,000

+0.2%

$174,000

+15%

$192,983

1,324

+1%

$180,000

1,438

+14%

$186,000

-14%

1,507

1,400

$195,100

1,600

$195,500

1,669 +11%

$200,000

$150,000

1,013 +17%

936 -13%

816

-7%

794 758 +4%

+9%

882

864

$100,000

400

$50,000

200

$0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2013) marked the third year in a row with an increased pace of home sales --

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

showing 17% growth as compared to 4% and 9% in the previous years. As we know (page 3) the strong pace of home sales seen last year is likely to continue to increase this year, and we are seeing a small increase in median sales prices thus far in 2014.


November 7, 2014


Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period

$200,000

$179,000

$175,000

$177,000

$176,000

$175,600

$178,000

$179,250

$175,225

$176,500

$175,000

$178,000

$176,000

$175,000

$175,250

$175,000

$176,000

$175,375

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$173,000

$175,000

$175,000

$173,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,950

$175,000

$175,000

$174,900

1,500

$173,000

$174,900

$174,900

$175,000

$175,800

2,000

$190,000

$180,000

$170,000

Relatively Stable Annualized Median Sales Price 1,029

1,009

982

991

982

969

991

965

1,019

1,003

1,014

983

1,018

1,006

993

973

955

944

924

894

893

872

864

831

843

830

813

810

801

806

801

794

793

779

779

1,000

887

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

850

d 1

$160,000

$150,000

$140,000

$130,000 500 $120,000

$110,000

0 Oct-11

Oct-12

This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. After

Oct-13

$100,000 Oct-14

over two years of an increasing pace of home sales (orange line) we saw a market slow down that began sometime in late 2013, which seems to have reversed itself about six months ago. Median prices continue to stay predictably between $173,000 and $176,000 - with only a few exceptions, such as $179,000 last month.


November 7, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes

1,200

800

+24%

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

674 +8%

$147,000

+2%

$136,000

$122,850

+9%

$133,239

600

+16%

798

$194,250

-1%

$195,000

+6%

$196,000

-7%

$185,500

-2%

$199,600

-5%

-12%

$225,000

$175,000

766 -18%

$170,000

+29%

-4%

909

$210,000

868 -2% 851

+8%

+3% 880

-1%

$204,500

+16%

-11%

$215,000

1,000

$223,575

1,024 n/a 1,025

$226,800

$275,000

+20%

654 -14%

563

+12%

656

641 622 +3%

$125,000

-1% 555

400

$75,000

200

$25,000

0

-$25,000 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

The single family home market in Harrisonburg and the Rockingham County is recovering quite nicely (in most ways) compared to the overall market. Looking at all of 2013, there was a 20% increase in single family home sales as compared to 2012 sales levels. During this time, however, median sales prices actually declined

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1%, after having shown a 6% improvement between 2011 and 2012. Year-todate in 2014, we have seen a tiny (0.4%) continued decline in median sales prices. Hopefully that trend will reverse itself as we close out the year.


November 7, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos

-7%

529

+10%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

+5%

+9%

+47%

302

300

$118,500

$94,600

$89,000

+6%

444

$108,200

$103,100

+9%

d 1

400

483

-6% -15%

+14%

$140,000

$120,000 -37%

282

+49%

$100,000

-11%

$80,000

253 -20%

203

203

200

+3%

$160,000

450

$134,950

500

$151,000

-5%

+19%

$138,500

-3%

$134,995

$167,250

+2%

$144,000

+33%

+2%

$180,000

$154,500

-18%

$161,875

600

$160,850

644

$163,800

700

+31%

155

223 -17%

+11%

247

226 $60,000

+32%

169 $40,000

100 $20,000

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales finally rebounded in 2012 with a 32% increase in the pace of sales. This increase continued in 2013, with an 11% increase in the pace of sales, which was accompanied by a 3% increase in the median sales price

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

of these properties. This analysis shows the compilation of duplex, townhouse and condominiums sales, and it seems that in 2014 we will see an even larger increase in median sales price. These property values fell further than single family homes so this would be a welcome price recovery for such homeowners and sellers.


November 7, 2014


Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS

Recorded Trustee Deeds

1,800 1,669 1,600

1,507 1,438

1,400

1,324 1,248

1,200

1,153 1,071

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,013

1,000

936 829

816

800

882

864 758

794

600

400 270 200 56

91

63

75

70

86

93

97

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

118

177

223

252

222 149

0 2000

2001

The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in 2013 is definitely lower as it was in 2012, as there were 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2012, 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2013, and now 5.9 times as many sales as foreclosures in 2014.


November 7, 2014


Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)

$0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

60

50

45 43

44

45

45

47

48

48

48

21

22

22

50

51

22

23

52 49

51

51

51

50

49

50

50

48

48

22

22

21

21

21

7.3

7.9

8.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

51

52

45

40

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

30

20

20

20

20

21

21

21

22

22

23

23

22

22

20

21

20

10

0

6.1

6.3

6.2

6.0

6.4

6.7

6.7

6.8

7.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.7

3.1

6.9

6.8

6.3

6.7

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.4

6.7

6.5

7.0

3.5

3.8

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.1

3.8

The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past two years, though

9.3

9.8

3.3

3.3

some prices ranges have shown more significant growth than others. The fastest recovery seen over the past 24 months has been in $300K - $400K and $400K+ homes.


d 1

November 7, 2014


Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

400

350

336 317

305 286

300

298

307

317

325 330 328 309

317

287

308 287

285

274

301

309

321

312

319 294

285

253 250

200

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

187 185

171

191 182 182 182 180 185 180 186 160

169

172

188

139 134 135 107

50

201 203

155

155

150

100

180

190 192

72

60

67

50

64

51

71

51

73

52

72

58

73 66

74 68

82

69

84

88

82

83

82 81

79 70

77

77

75

74

60

59

67

102

87 81

67

105

88

93

92

97 95

90 89

89

77

83

71

0

Inventory levels have remained relatively stable in most price ranges over the past year. The two exceptions have been the under $200K segment of the market, which has seen a 7% decline in inventory levels. We are likely to see inventory levels fall even further over the next few months as we continue through the Fall market and

into the Winter market. When looking at a two year window, the most signficant changes in inventory levels have been in the under $200K price range (-12.5%) and the $300K - $400K price range (+38%).


November 7, 2014


Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

45 42 40

37

36 34

35

35

33

32

30

28

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

27 24

25

25

23 22

17 15

10

5

10 9

8

9 8 7

88

7

89 7

9 8

7

9

6

10 9

6

10 9

7

10 9

7

12

12

8

8

7

7

13

8

6

24

24 21

20

19

20

25 23

12

8

6

16

11

7 6

16

15

14

14

11

11

12

6

6

6

5

6

5

15

13

7

6

14 12

8

6

8

6

9

6

11

9

6

10

10

10

6

6

9 9

6

0

With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in most price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 21 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers bought each

month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and this year we have only conistently seen that balance in the under $200K price range.


d 1

November 7, 2014


List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace

2,000

1,750

97.4%

97.7%

97.8%

98.1%

99.1%

99.1%

98.9%

100.0%

98.0% 96.9%

1,669

97.3% 96.2%

95.7%

1,507

1,500

94.7%

94.8%

95.8% 95.0%

1,438 1,324 1,248

1,250

1,153

90.0%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,071

1,013

1,000

936 829

816

750

882

864 758

85.0%

794

80.0% 500 75.0%

250

0

70.0% 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Of note, we have now essentially returned (in 2014) to that pre-boom level -- given the 97.3% average during the first ten months of 2014. As the market continues to recover, we may see this ratio increase even further.


November 7, 2014


Median Price vs. Price Per SF Median Price

Price/SF $300,000

140

$129

$127 $121

$116

120

$97

100

$227K

$224K

$210K

$73

$76

Median Price Per SF $104

$108

$105

$215K $205K

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

80

$250,000

$113

$103

$87

d 1

$117

$200,000

$200K

$196K $186K

$81

$195K

$194K

Median Sales Price

$170K

$150,000

$147K 60

$133K

$136K

$123K $100,000

40

$50,000 20

$0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. When focusing in on 2013 and 2014 data, we can see that the median sales price has started to shift downward, though the price per square foot is increasing.


November 7, 2014


Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes

0 - 1,499 SF

1,500 - 2,500 SF

2,500+ SF

150

140

$138

$140 $133

130

$126 $123

d 1

120

$123

$122

$123

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$116

$117

$119

$112

$115

$114

$105

100

$117

$111

110

$107

$116

$103

$105

$105

$104 $104

$96

$96

2011

2012

$97

90

80 2006

2007

2008

2009

Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower

2010

2013

2014

($103/SF) than homes with less than 1500 SF ($117/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.


November 7, 2014


Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre

$120,000

450

$99,900

408 400

$100,000

$76,500

350

$36,900

$30,500

$26,000

165

$32,208

$52,450

$54,900

$56,875

$54,500

$58,300

$55,000

201

200

150

247

$54,500

250

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$42,000

261

d 1

$80,000

$59,900

304 300

$60,000

$40,000

111

100

85

Stability 79

74 58

63

60

61

2009

2010

2011

2012

68

$20,000

50

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized. We now see that there have been between 58 and 79 lot sales (of less than an acre) for each of the past six years (2008-2013). The median sales price of these lots under one

2008

2013

2014

acre also appears to be stabilizing between $50,000 and $60,000. Looking only at 2014, it seems likely that we will see between 75 and 100 sales of this type and size of property. Prices being were they are (just above $50K) is certainly helping this market to stay steady at this point.


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November 7, 2014


Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre

$100k + 13 listings 6% $80k - $100k 25 listings 11%

$0 - $40k 39 listings 18%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$60k - $80k 55 listings 25% $40k - $60k 87 listings 40%

219 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $56,900

Despite the fact that only 79 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2013, there are a remarkable 219 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($56,900) is very similar to the 2013 median sales price of $54,900. Given last year’s 79 lot sales, if no other lots were

listed for sale, it would take 2.8 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, almost half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012, 2013) median sales prices.


November 7, 2014


Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more

$30,000

180

$24,184

168

$13,240

$10,000

53

49 42

$8,234

42 40

$16,355

68

$15,000

$10,462

$8,333

$8,245

58

77

83

$9,535

76

80

$20,000

$14,981

87

$12,003

100

$14,552

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$15,424

107

d 1

$15,000

120

$17,713

140

60

$25,000

$21,250

160

48

47

27

$5,000

20

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2013 as compared to the past five years. We are still not approaching the number of land sales that we saw in record breaking years such as 2004 and 2005, but 2013 has been a significant improvement with 68 land sales. The median price

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

per acre of lots over 1 acre in size has fallen quite a bit over the past two years, from $16,355 per acre to $10,462. The lower ($10,462) median price per acre in 2014 may be a result of only a small number of lots selling thus far.


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November 7, 2014


Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more

$100k + 15 listings 7% $50k - $100k 25 listings 11%

$0 - $10k 57 listings 26%

$40k - $50k 11 listings 5% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$30k - $40k 19 listings 9%

$20k - $30k 40 listings 18%

$10k - $20k 52 listings 24%

219 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $20,098 / Acre

Despite the fact that only 68 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2013, there are a remarkable 219 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $11,000 per acre, the median list price of the 240 parcels for sale is currently $20,098 per acre. Given

last year’s 68 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 3.2 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.



New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

200

186 200

180

$133

$136

$129

$129

150

109

$114

$105

80

$99

89 $94

100

$128

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$146

121

120

$130

139

$137

140

137

$150

138

140

$144

158

160

$87

d 1

November 7, 2014

100

84

60

41

40

45

51

47 50

30

20

0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

New home builders experienced a slight increase in the pace of new home sales between 2010 and 2012 -- after steady declines since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The number of new (single family) home sales declined again in 2013 to 47 sales. The

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

median price per square foot now seems to have stabilized around $130/SF last year, where it has been for the past four years. As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes should slowly start to increase, though we are certainly not seeing that yet in 2014.


November 7, 2014



Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings

Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties

Active Residential Listings

Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months > 2 years, 11, 1%

> 2 years, 17, 3%

1 - 2 years, 82, 8% 1 - 2 years, 66, 10% 9 - 12 months, 24, 4% 9 - 12 months, 74, 7%

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

0 - 3 months, 239, 38%

0 - 3 months, 388, 38% 6 - 9 months, 150, 15%

6 - 9 months, 91, 14%

3 - 6 months, 324, 31%

3 - 6 months, 199, 31%

Median Days On Market: 117

Median Days On Market: 125

Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, more than 1 out of 3 homes (38%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that close in the next 90 days (31%) and we find that an amazing

69% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market. Of interest -- 38% of the homes currently on the market for sale have been listed in the past three months.


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November 7, 2014


Days on Market Analysis by Price Range Properties Sold in the Past 12 Months

0 -3 Months

All Homes

Med = 117

Under $200k

Med = 114

3 - 6 Months

6 - 9 Months

9 - 12 Months

1 - 2 Years

2+ Years

38%

31%

15%

38%

32%

15%

7%

8%

8%

1%

7%

1%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$200k - $300k

37%

Med = 121

$300k - $400k

33%

40%

Med = 117

$400k and up

27%

35%

Med = 126

0%

10%

20%

15%

16%

30%

30%

40%

The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market only varies slightly based on the price range of the home in question. For example, the median days on market for homes under $200K is 114 days -- only a bit lower than the median of 126 days for homes over $400K. It is important to consider the price range, location, and

50%

8%

60%

70%

6%

5%

10%

80%

7%

2%

11%

13%

90%

0%

5%

100%

many other factors when trying to understand how long it may take to sell your home, but it seems that the price range alone will not necessarily dictate how long it will take to sell.


Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac

6.00%

3.00% Oct-11

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Oct-12

Oct-13

3.98%

4.20%

4.10%

4.12%

4.14%

4.12%

4.33%

4.40%

4.37%

4.48%

4.32%

4.29%

4.10%

4.32%

4.51%

3.81%

3.57%

3.40%

3.51%

3.53%

3.35%

3.32%

3.41%

3.50%

3.40%

3.59%

3.49%

3.66%

3.75%

4.00%

3.88%

3.99%

3.95%

3.98%

3.98%

3.95%

4.50%

4.10%

5.00%

4.31%

4.46%

5.50%

Oct-14

Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA

5.0%

5.5%

5.6%

5.5%

5.3% 4.1%

5.2%

4.9%

4.7%

4.4%

5.3%

4.50%

4.7%

5.0%

5.3%

5.9%

6.1%

5.7% 4.6%

5.4%

5.00%

4.9%

5.6%

5.1%

5.2%

5.3%

5.5%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

5.9%

6.5%

6.3%

5.9%

6.0%

5.8%

5.3%

5.50%

5.6%

6.00%

5.7%

6.50%

5.3%

7.00%

5.6%

Unemployment Rate 6.1%

d 1

November 7, 2014

4.00% 3.50% 3.00% Sep-11

Sep-12

As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen relatively stable mortgage interest rates over the past year, but have dipped below 4% during the past month. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past few years, but has been stable

Sep-13

Sep-14

(no change from 5%) over the past 12 months. A relatively stable local job market and extremely low long-term interest rates are certainly helping our local real estate market to stabilize and grow.


Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker Scott P. Rogers, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to condo developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction. Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Scott serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, Harrisonburg Children’s Museum and the James Madison University Alumni Association. Tambien, Scott habla espanol, y puede ayudar gente y familias quien quisiera utilizar un Realtor bilingue. Si usted necesita servicio en espanol, llamar a Scott. Scott puede ayudarle a comprar o vender casas. In 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.

For more information, or with questions, contact: SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile) [email protected]

Local Online Real Estate Resources

November 7, 2014

Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home Online WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham HarrisonburgREO.com Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgShortSales.com Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
