Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report ...

AUGUST 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through July 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

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August 7, 2014

Executive Summary

The summary below is based on residential sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County as reflected in the HRAR MLS.

Pace of Home Sales: July

Pace of Home Sales: Year To Date

Buyer Activity

Home Values: July

Home Values: Year To Date

Single Family Home Sales

120 homes sold in July 2014, marking a 7% increase compared to July 2013 when 112 homes sold -- and a 27% increase compared to July 2012.

564 homes sold thus far in 2014. This marks a 4% decline from the same time period in 2013 when 587 homes had sold, though an 18% increase over 2012 when only 480 homes sold.

Median sales prices and average sales prices remained relatively stable (-0.10%, +0.12%) when comparing July 2014 to July 2013.

d 1

Median sales prices and average sales prices stayed relatively stable (-0.36%, +0.04%) when comparing 2014 YTD to 2013 YTD.

112 buyers committed to buy in July 2014, compared to 107 in July 2013 -- marking a 5% increase in buyer activity over the past year, and a 24% increase over 2012.

416 single family homes have sold thus far in 2014, compared to a total of 766 in 2013. The median sales price has declined to $194,250.

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Days on Market: July

Days on Market: Year To Date

Townhouse Sales

Foreclosures

Supply

Lot Sales

Inventory

Price Per Square Foot

Land Sales

The median time it took for a home to sell was 101 days in July 2014, a 7% decline from 109 days in July 2013 and a 31% decline from 147 days in July 2012.

109 trustee deeds have been recorded in 2014 compared to 564 total home sales reported through the HRAR MLS during the same timeframe.

Inventory levels increased in July 2014 to 705 residential properties currently for sale, up 4.3% from one year ago, and down 3% from two years ago in July 2012.

The median length of time on the market for homes selling thus far in 2014 is 116 days, an 11% decline compared to 2013 and a 22% decline from 2013.

The under $200k price ranges is balanced (six months of supply) but all other price ranges still show an excess (9 - 25 months) of housing supply.

Median price per square foot of single family homes has risen to $109/sf in 2014, up from $105/sf in 2013.

148 townhouses, duplexes and condos have sold thus far in 2014, compared to a 2013 total of 247 townhomes. The median sales price has increased to $149,950 thus far in 2014.

There have been 55 lot sales of less than an acre thus far in 2014, compared to 79 in all of 2013. Median sales prices have declined to $51,000 thus far in 2014.

32 parcels of land greater than an acre have sold thus far in 2014 compared to 68 land sales during all of 2013. The median price per acre has declined to $10,934.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 07/31/2014.

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August 7, 2014

HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

# Home Sales

August 7, 2014

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

July

77

94

112

120

7.14%

Year-To-Date (Jan-Jul)

443

480

587

564

-3.92%

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

July

$200,000

$190,000

$199,455

$199,250

-0.10%


$169,900

$175,000

$179,900

$179,250

-0.36%

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

July

$224,063

$207,654

$219,230

$219,487

0.12%


$200,383

$196,426

$202,304

$202,395

0.04%

Median Days on Market

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

July

109

147

109

101

-7.34%


147

148

130

116

-10.77%

Median Sales Price

Average Sales Price

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

After a significant rebound in the local real estate market in 2013, we have experienced a slightly slower pace of home sales in 2014. Thus far in 2014, home sales are 4% behind where they were at this time last year. Of note -- most of this deficit was created in the early months of 2014 during an unusually cold winter. Home values

seem to be remaining stable, as examined via the median sales price (-0.36% YTD) and average sales price (+0.04%). Of note, homes are selling more quickly this year (average of 116 days on the market) as compared to last year (130 days).


August 7, 2014

HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

# Home Sales

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

July

39

38

-2.56%

73

82

12.33%

Year-To-Date

220

204

-7.27%

367

360

-1.91%

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. Rockingham County

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

City of Harrisonburg

Median Sales Price

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

July

$185,000

$197,500

6.76%

$213,000

$199,250

-6.46%

Year-To-Date

$159,500

$172,500

8.15%

$193,000

$184,375

-4.47%

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Median Days on Market

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

July

129

103

-20.16%

94

100

6.38%

Year-To-Date

122

106

-13.11%

132

123

-6.82%

If we dig a bit deeper into the sales data, looking at how the City and County are performing individually, the first thing we notice is that there has certainly been a decline in (YTD) sales pace both in the City (-7%) and the County (-2%). Of interest, however, is that the median sales price is increasing (+8%) in the City, but decreasing

(-4%) in the County. These price trends are observed when comparing January through July sales data for 2013 and 2014. Similarly, homes in the City are now selling more quickly (-13%) in the City as compared to last year as compared to a decline of only 7% in the County.


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Month-By-Month Home Sales History 140

2011

July 2014 120 Home Sales

2012 2013

120

120

108

Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales

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August 7, 2014

103

100

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

67 60

52 47 40

39 40

51 46

67

78 77 73

112

101 97

80

112

2014

77

95

84 81

94

95

92 87

77

79

68

80 79

87

79

75

67

66 61 55

60

56

58

56

OCT

NOV

DEC

38

20

0 JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

The pace of home sales may recover after all as we progress through the year. As shown above, the 120 home sales in July 2014 marked the highest level of home sales in a month anytime in the past three years. This is the third month in a row with record high numbers of sales, though these three strong months of sales

JUL

AUG

SEP

follow some rather depressing sales figures in February, March and April. Buyer activity (contracts signed) in July 2014 (see Page 6) could be an indication that we will continue to see strong sales figures through August and September.


August 7, 2014


Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 160 145

143 140

135

114 116

120

107

102 96

100

84 86

d 1

93

90

87

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

84

103

96

93

90

80

76

80

100 98

96

56

91

59

75

70

69

60

91

76

67

112

107

68

58

56

40

Annual Pace: 1,160 contracts

20

Annual Pace: 1,149 contracts

Annual Pace: 976 contracts

The pace at which buyers are signing contracts to buy real estate is often an excellent indicator of the future sales performance of our local market. It is encouraging to see month by month increases in contract activity since January of this year, and the year-over-year comparison for June (+51%) and July (+5%) is a tremendously exciting

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Feb-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

Oct-11

Sep-11

Aug-11

Jul-11

0

trend as we forecast late summer and early fall home sales. When looking at the annual pace of contracts being signed, we note that 1,149 buyers have commited to purchase homes in the past year, a slight tick below the previous 12 months.


August 7, 2014


Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1100

DEC

1000

1,014 927

900

864

800 700

d 1

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

NOV

758 694 636 587

794

786

715 657

713

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

601

638

867

JUL

479

476

366

385

381

301

285

301

230

217

224

147 98 45

139 78 40

151 85 39

2010

2011

2012

418

443

This pretty graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. To compare year-to-date figures, just look at how high the top of the light blue segment of the bar chart extends. You’ll note that this year’s pace of home sales (564) is higher

AUG

700 588

522

SEP

780

571

532 470

OCT

284 181

564

JUN

444

MAY

336 235

114 47

158 103 52

2013

2014

APR MAR FEB JAN

than every year (2010, 2011, 2012) other than last year (2013) when there were 588 home sales. It seemed that 2013 had shown strong growth in our local housing market, and many were anticipating that 2014 would show a continuation of that trend. This may still take place depending on the pace of sales from August onward.


August 7, 2014


Inventory Levels (end of month)

800

727 700

706 698 655 619

600

572

587

605 599

628 639

661

676 685

663

675 679 635

693

705

608

584 529

555 550

500

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

400

300

200

100

0

Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which be a big, significant,

weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels are up about 4% over the past year, a sign that sellers are more encouraged by market trends.


August 7, 2014


Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes

Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos

600

526

507

520

518

549

529

539

490

500

460

451 423

412

402

400

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

300

200

169

159

145

145

133

127

Nov-13

Dec-13

132

138

148

155

150

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

166 144

100

0 Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

If you’re searching for a single family home, I have some good news for you --- you have more options now than you did a year ago. Inventory levels of single family homes have increased 6% over the past year - though they have declined slightly (-2%) over the past month. Townhouses (plus duplexes and condos) are actually

Jan-14

Feb-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

seeing a slight year over year decline (-2%) when looking at current inventory levels compared to a year ago at this time -- though these inventory levels jumped up quite a bit (+15%) over the past month.


August 7, 2014


Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

600

500

466

462

441

423

407 400

d 1

488

483

479

474

463

384

383

367

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

300

214

219

200

200

194

177

162

172

166

185

201

200

210

217

100

0 Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Trends in inventory level do not seem to transcend the City / County divide. When looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has only been a small increase (+1%) in the number of properties for sale. In the County, however, there has been an 6% increase in the number of homes for sale. I suppose this is good

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

news for the home buyer seeking a property in the County, though the many home sellers in the County likely are not enjoying the extra competition. Overall, the inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.


August 7, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes

$250,000

1,800

+29%

$122,900

$116,000

600

+6%

-0.3%

+4%

$127,700

+17%

829 800

+14%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$122,588

1,000

+14%

1,153

$169,900

1,071

d 1

+8%

$149,000

1,200

1,248

-3%

+1%

+1%

-25%

$179,250

-13%

-3%

$176,000

-5%

$175,000

+0.2%

$174,000

+15%

$192,983

1,324

+1%

$180,000

1,438

+14%

$186,000

-14%

1,507

1,400

$195,100

1,600

$195,500

1,669 +11%

$200,000

$150,000

1,013 +17%

936 -13%

816

-7%

794 758 +4%

+9%

864

$100,000 564

400

$50,000

200

$0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2013) marked the third year in a row with an increased pace of home

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

sales -- showing 17% growth as compared to 4% and 9% in the previous years. As we know (page 3) the strong pace of home sales seen last year is not necessarily continuing this year, though we are seeing a slight increase in median sales prices thus far in 2014.


August 7, 2014


Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period

$200,000

$175,600

$178,000

$190,000 $176,000

$179,250

$176,500

$175,000 $175,225

$176,000

$178,000

$175,000

$175,250

$175,000

$176,000

$175,375

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$173,000

$175,000

$173,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,950

$175,000

$174,900

1,500

$173,000

$174,900

$175,000

$174,900

$176,650

$175,800

$175,650

$175,000

2,000

$180,000

$170,000

Relatively Stable Annualized Median Sales Price

990

982

969

965

1,019

$160,000 1,003 991

1,014

1,018

983

1,006

993

973

955

944

924

894

893

872

864

831

843

830

813

810

801

806

801

793

794

779

779

772

748

731

1,000

887

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

850

d 1

$150,000

$140,000

$130,000 500 $120,000

$110,000

0 Jul-11

Jul-12

This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. After

Jul-13

$100,000 Jul-14

over two years of an increasing pace of home sales (orange line) we saw a market slow down between January 2014 and April 2014, but that pace of home sales has started to increase yet again since that time. Median prices continue to stay predictably between $173,000 and $176,000 - with only a few exceptions.


August 7, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes

1,200

800

+24%

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

674 $147,000

+2%

+8%

$136,000

$122,850

+9%

$133,239

600

+16%

798

$194,250

-1%

$195,000

+6%

$196,000

-7%

$185,500

-2%

$199,600

-5%

-12%

$225,000

$175,000

766 -18%

$170,000

+29%

-4%

909

$210,000

868 -2% 851

+8%

+3% 880

-1%

$204,500

+16%

-11%

$215,000

1,000

$223,575

1,024 n/a 1,025

$226,800

$275,000

+20%

654 -14%

563

+12%

641 622 +3% $125,000

-1% 555

416

400

$75,000

200

$25,000

0

-$25,000 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

The single family home market in Harrisonburg and the Rockingham County is recovering quite nicely (in most ways) compared to the overall market. Looking at all of 2013, there was a 20% increase in single family home sales as compared to 2012 sales levels. During this time, however, median sales prices actually declined

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1%, after having shown a 6% improvement between 2011 and 2012. Year-to-date in 2014, however, we have seen a tiny (0.4%) decline in median sales prices. Hopefully that trend will reverse itself as we get through the remainder of the summer real estate market.


August 7, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos

-7%

529

+10%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

+5%

+9%

+47%

302

300

$118,500

$94,600

$89,000

+6%

444

$108,200

$103,100

+9%

d 1

400

483

-6% -15%

+14%

$140,000

$120,000 -37%

282

+49%

$100,000

-11%

$80,000

253 -20%

203

203

200

+3%

$160,000

450

$134,950

500

$149,950

-5%

+19%

$138,500

-3%

$134,995

$167,250

+2%

$144,000

+33%

+2%

$180,000

$154,500

-18%

$161,875

600

$160,850

644

$163,800

700

+31%

155

223 -17%

+11%

247 $60,000

+32%

169

148

$40,000

100 $20,000

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales finally rebounded in 2012 with a 32% increase in the pace of sales. This increase continued in 2013, with an 11% increase in the pace of sales, which was accompanied by a 3% increase in the median sales price

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

of these properties. This analysis shows the compilation of duplex, townhouse and condominiums sales, and it seems that in 2014 we will see an even larger increase in median sales price. These property values fell further than single family homes so this would be a welcome price recovery for such homeowners and sellers.


August 7, 2014


Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS

Recorded Trustee Deeds

1,800 1,669 1,600

1,507 1,438

1,400

1,324 1,248

1,200

1,153 1,071

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,013

1,000

936 829

816

800

864 758

794

564

600

400 270 200 56

91

63

75

70

86

93

97

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

118

177

223

252

222 109

0 2000

2001

The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in 2013 is definitely lower as it was in 2012, as there were 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2012, 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2013, and now 5.2 times as many sales as foreclosures in 2014.


August 7, 2014


Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)

$0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

60

50 45 40

42

43

42

43

44

d 1

45

47

48

48

48

50

51

52 49

51

51

45

45

21

21

22

22

22

23

22

22

23

23

21

6.3 4.3

6.7 4.2

6.8

6.8 4.3

6.7 4.3

51

50 48

48

49

50

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

30

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

21

5.7

5.7

6.0

6.1

6.3

6.2

6.0

6.4

6.7

6.7

6.8

7.0

6.9

6.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.8

20

22

22

22

22

21

21

6.4 4.4

6.7

6.5 4.1

7.0

7.3

7.9

3.8

4.0

3.8

10

0

The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past two years, though

4.1

4.1

some prices ranges have shown more significant growth than others. The fastest recovery seen over the past 24 months has been in $400K+ homes, which have shown a 111% improvement in the pace of sales. All other price ranges have stayed relatively stable over the past 24 months.


d 1

August 7, 2014


Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

400 360

370

357

355 336

320

317

305 286

280 240 200

298

307

317

325

330

328 309

317

287

308

199

187

185 171

182

182

182

180

185

180

186

191 172

169

160

155

120

134

77 79

75 75

72 64

72 60

67

64

71

73

50

51

51

52

72 58

73 66

74 68

82 69

88 83

81 82

79 70

67 77

190

192

102

97 95

135 107

84 82

180

155 139

40

285

207

160

80

274

301

321

253

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

201

287

285

309

77 60

75 59

74 67

87 81

88

105 93

92

0

Inventory levels have risen most significantly (+18%) over the past year in the $300K - $400K price range, while staying more stable in the $400K+ price range and $200K - $300K range, as well as declined slightly under $200K. We are likely to see relatively stable listing inventory over the next few months before we enter into the

Fall. Thus far in 2014, there seems to be the most pressure on the segments of the market under $300K, where inventory levels are stable or declining, and home sales are increasing.


d 1

August 7, 2014


Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

50 45

45 41

40

42

41 37

36

35

34

35

33

30

32 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

28 25

27 24

25

23

20

20

19 17

15 10 5

14 10 9

13 10 8

11 10 9

10 9 8

9 8 7

88 7

9 8 7

89

9 9

7

6

10 9 6

9

10 9

12 8

7

7

7

10

12

13

8 7

8 6

12 8 6

16 14 11 7 6

11

6 5

14 11

6

12

6 5

22 16

15

15

13

7 6

8 6

25 23

14

12

8

9

9

6

6

6

0

With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in most price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 25 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers bought each

month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and this year we have only conistently seen that balance in the under $200K price range.


d 1

August 7, 2014


List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace

2,000

1,750

97.4%

97.7%

97.8%

98.1%

99.1%

99.1%

98.9%

100.0%

98.0% 96.9%

1,669

97.4% 96.2%

95.7%

1,507

1,500

94.7%

94.8%

95.8% 95.0%

1,438 1,324 1,248

1,250

1,153

90.0%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,071

1,013

1,000

936 829

816

750

85.0%

864 758

794

564

80.0%

500 75.0%

250

0

70.0% 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Of note, we have now returned (in 2014) to that pre-boom level of 97.4% based on sales in the first seven months of 2014. As the market continues to recover, we may see this ratio increase even further.


August 7, 2014


Median Price Per Square Foot Trends Single Family Homes

150

$300,000

$129

125

$127 $121

$116

$227K

$224K

$210K

100

$250,000

$117

$215K $205K

$97

d 1

$200K

75

$73

$76 $133K

$81

$103

$104

$105

$196K

$195K

$186K

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$87

Median Price Per SF

$113

$170K

$109 $194K

$200,000

Median Sales Price $150,000

$147K $136K

$123K 50

$100,000

25

$50,000

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. When focusing in on 2013 and 2014 data, we can see that the median sales price has started to shift downward, though the price per square foot is increasing.


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August 7, 2014


Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes

0 - 1,499 SF

1,500 - 2,500 SF

2,500+ SF

150

140

$138

$140 $133

130

120

$123 $122

$126 $123 $119

$123 $116 $115

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$117 $112

110

$105

$111

$107 $103

100

$114 $105

$96

$96

2011

2012

$116

$105 $97

$118

$108 $99

90

80

70

60 2006

2007

2008

2009

Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit

2010

2013

2014

lower ($99/SF) than homes that offer less than 1500 SF ($118/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.


August 7, 2014


Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre

$120,000

450

$99,900

408 400

$100,000

$76,500

350

$36,900

$30,500

$26,000

165

$32,208

$51,000

$54,900

$56,875

$54,500

$58,300

$55,000

201

200

150

247

$54,500

250

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$42,000

261

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$80,000

$59,900

304 300

$60,000

$40,000

111

100

85

Stability 79

74 58

63

60

61

2009

2010

2011

2012

55

$20,000

50

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized. We now see that there have been between 58 and 79 lot sales (of less than an acre) for each of the past six years (2008-2013). The median sales price of these lots under one

2008

2013

2014

acre also appears to be stabilizing between $50,000 and $60,000. Looking only at 2014, it seems likely that we will see between 75 and 100 sales of this type and size of property. Prices being were they are (just above $50K) is certainly helping this market to stay steady at this point.


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August 7, 2014


Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre

$100k + 14 listings 6% $80k - $100k 28 listings 12%

$0 - $40k 46 listings 19%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$60k - $80k 62 listings 26% $40k - $60k 90 listings 38%

240 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $58,500

Despite the fact that only 79 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2013, there are a remarkable 240 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($58,500) is very similar to the 2013 median sales price of $54,900. Given last year’s 79 lot sales, if no other lots were

listed for sale, it would take just over 3 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, almost half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012, 2013) median sales prices.


August 7, 2014


Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more

$30,000

180

$24,184

168

$8,333

$8,245

58

$15,000

$10,934

$16,355

68

$10,000

53

49 42

$8,234

42 40

$13,240

77

83

$9,535

76

80

$20,000

$14,981

87

$12,003

100

$14,552

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$15,424

107

d 1

$15,000

120

$17,713

140

60

$25,000

$21,250

160

47 32

27

$5,000

20

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2013 as compared to the past five years. We are still not approaching the number of land sales that we saw in record breaking years such as 2004 and 2005, but 2013 has been a significant improvement with 68 land sales. The median price

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

per acre of lots over 1 acre in size has fallen quite a bit over the past two years, from $16,355 per acre to $13,240. The lower ($10,934) median price per acre in 2014 may be a result of only a small number of lots selling thus far.


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August 7, 2014


Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more

$50k - $100k 19 listings 8% $40k - $50k 9 listings 4%

$100k + 10 listings 4% $0 - $10k 51 listings 22%

$30k - $40k 16 listings 7% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$20k - $30k 43 listings 19%

$10k - $20k 71 listings 31%

231 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $19,120 / Acre

Despite the fact that only 68 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2013, there are a remarkable 231 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $13,000 per acre, the median list price of the 240 parcels for sale is currently $19,120 per acre. Given

last year’s 68 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take over 3 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.



New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

200

186 200

180

$133

$135

$129

$129

150

109

$114

$105

80

$99

89 $94

100

$128

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$146

121

120

$130

139

$137

140

137

$150

138

140

$144

158

160

$87

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August 7, 2014

100

84

60

41

40

45

51

47 50

19

20

0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

New home builders experienced a slight increase in the pace of new home sales between 2010 and 2012 -- after steady declines since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The number of new (single family) home sales declined again in 2013 to 47 sales. The

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

median price per square foot now seems to have stabilized around $130/SF last year, where it has been for the past four years. As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes should slowly start to increase, though we are certainly not seeing that yet in 2014.


August 7, 2014


Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months


Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings

> 2 years, 10, 1%

> 2 years, 23, 3%

1 - 2 years, 79, 8% 1 - 2 years, 62, 9%

9 - 12 months, 80, 8%

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

9 - 12 months, 61, 9%

0 - 3 months, 390, 40% 6 - 9 months, 152, 15%

0 - 3 months, 306, 43% 6 - 9 months, 58, 8%

3 - 6 months, 195, 28% 3 - 6 months, 279, 28%

Median Days On Market: 114

Median Days On Market: 101

Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, more than 1 out of 3 homes (40%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that close in the next 90 days (28%) and we find that an amazing

68% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market. Of interest -- 43% of the homes currently on the market for sale have been listed in the past three months.


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August 7, 2014


Days on Market Analysis by Price Range Properties Sold in the Past 12 Months

0 -3 Months

All Homes

Med = 114

Under $200k

Med = 112

3 - 6 Months

6 - 9 Months

9 - 12 Months

39%

28%

40%

29%

1 - 2 Years

2+ Years

15%

8%

16%

8%

8%

7%

1%

1%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$200k - $300k

37%

Med = 120

$300k - $400k

28%

42%

Med = 115

$400k and up

27%

39%

Med = 117

0%

10%

20%

16%

15%

22%

30%

40%

The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market varies based on the price range of the home in question. For example, the median days on market for homes under $200K is 112 days -- a bit lower than the median of 120 days for homes between $200K and $300K. The difference in median values between price ranges

50%

8%

9%

60%

11%

70%

10%

6%

13%

80%

2%

9%

0%

7%

90%

100%

is also indicative of market challenges for higher priced listings. A full 20% of homes that sold over $400K in the past year took one year or longer to do so. It is important to consider the price range, location, and many other factors when trying to understand how long it may take to sell your home.


Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac

6.00%

3.00% Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

4.12%

4.14%

4.33%

4.12%

4.40%

4.37%

4.32%

4.48%

4.29%

4.10%

4.51%

4.32%

4.31%

3.81%

3.40%

3.57%

3.51%

3.53%

3.35%

3.32%

4.46%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

3.41%

3.50%

3.40%

3.59%

3.49%

3.66%

3.88%

4.00%

3.75%

3.99%

3.95%

3.98%

3.95%

3.98%

4.10%

4.22%

4.50%

4.01%

5.00%

4.55%

5.50%

Jul-14

Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA

Unemployment Rate

4.00% Jun-11

Jun-12

As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen relatively stable mortgage interest rates over the past nine months. These 30-year fixed rate mortgages have hovered between 4% and 4.5% for many months now, with downward trends over the past seven months. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local

Jun-13

5.6%

5.3%

5.2% 4.1%

4.9%

4.7%

4.4%

4.7%

5.3%

5.0%

5.9%

4.50%

5.3%

6.1%

5.7% 4.6%

4.9%

5.4%

5.6%

5.2%

5.00%

5.1%

5.3%

5.5%

5.9%

6.5%

6.3%

5.9% 5.3%

5.8%

6.0%

5.6%

5.7%

5.3%

5.50%

5.6%

6.00%

6.1%

6.50%

6.1%

7.00%

6.1%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

6.3%

d 1

August 7, 2014

Jun-14

unemployment rate -- which has increased in recent months, but has seen an 8% year over year decline. A stable local job market and relatively low long-term interest rates are certainly helping our local real estate market to stabilize and grow.


Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker Scott P. Rogers, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to condo developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction. Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Scott serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, Harrisonburg Children’s Museum and the James Madison University Alumni Association. Tambien, Scott habla espanol, y puede ayudar gente y familias quien quisiera utilizar un Realtor bilingue. Si usted necesita servicio en espanol, llamar a Scott. Scott puede ayudarle a comprar o vender casas. In 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.

For more information, or with questions, contact: SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile) [email protected]

Local Online Real Estate Resources

August 7, 2014

Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham HarrisonburgREO.com Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgShortSales.com Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
