Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report ...

DECEMBER 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through November 30, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

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December 8, 2014

HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

# Home Sales

December 8, 2014

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

November

58

95

60

65

8.33%

Year-To-Date (Jan-Nov)

715

809

926

948

2.38%

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

November

$174,950

$152,500

$187,300

$179,900

-3.95%


$174,900

$174,900

$177,150

$179,000

1.04%

Average Sales Price

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

November

$196,334

$153,407

$206,623

$222,080

7.48%


$195,915

$193,543

$200,270

$203,629

1.68%

Median Days on Market

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

November

126

113

126

123

-2.38%


148

143

122

119

-2.46%

Median Sales Price

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

We again saw an increase (8.33%) in home sales looking at this November (2014) as compared to last November (2013) -- which added to the year to date numbers to show a 2.38% year-over-year increase in the pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. These small increases in the pace of sales have been

accompanied by even smaller increases in sales prices - with a 1.04% increase in the year-to-date median sales price and a 1.68% increase in the year-to-date average sales price. The time that it takes to sell a home (median days on market) is down slightly (-2.46%) as compared to where we were a year ago.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 11/30/2014.

December 8, 2014

HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

# Home Sales

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

November

17

24

41.18%

43

41

-4.65%

Year-To-Date

341

326

-4.40%

585

622

6.32%

d 1

. Rockingham County

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

City of Harrisonburg

Median Sales Price

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

November

$184,500

$163,500

-11.38%

$195,500

$185,000

-5.37%

Year-To-Date

$164,900

$170,000

3.09%

$190,000

$189,000

-0.53%

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

Median Days on Market

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

November

112

144

28.57%

128

122

-4.69%

Year-To-Date

114

108

-5.26%

124

124

0.00%

If we dig a bit deeper into the sales data, looking at how the City and County are performing individually, the first thing we notice is that there has certainly been a decline in (YTD) sales pace in the City (-4.4%) that was not seen in the County (+6.32%). Of interest, however, is that the median sales price is increasing (+3.09%)

in the City, but has not increased (-0.53%) in the County. These price trends are observed when comparing January through November sales data for 2013 and 2014. Homes in the City are selling more quickly (median of 108 days on the market) as compared to in the County (124 days).


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Month-By-Month Home Sales History 140

2011 2012 2013

121

120

108

Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales

d 1

December 8, 2014

103

100

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

67 60

52 47 40

39 40

51 46

67

78 77 73

77

112

103

101 97

80

112

2014

95

84 81

94

107

108 95

92 87

77

79

68

80 79

79

75

67

66 61 55

87

65 60

56

58

56

OCT

NOV

DEC

November 2014 65 Home Sales

38

20

0 JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

January kicked off 2014 with strong home sales but then the pace of home sales lagged significantly in February-April. We did then see strong home sales in MayJuly, pulling us within 4% of the YTD pace of home sales in 2013, however, the home sales market did not perform as well in August, however, dropping down to

JUL

AUG

SEP

103 home sales, as compared to 112 last August. September and October of 2014 showed large increases over 2013, and November followed with another increase over 2013. The 95 home sales in November 2012 included the sale of 22 apartments from one single owner to a single buyer, which inflated that month’s sales pace.


December 8, 2014


Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 160 145

143 140

135 123 114 116

120

107

102 96

100

93

90

87

d 1

80

100 98 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

93

90

80

76

103 96

96

56

91

59

102 94

91

76

77

75

70

69 60

112

107

68

58

56

40

Annual Pace: 1,185 contracts


20


The pace at which buyers are signing contracts to buy real estate is often an excellent indicator of the future sales performance of our local market. It is encouraging to see month by month increases in contract activity since January of this year, though the number of contracts (77) in November 2014 was a good bit lower than

Oct-14

Nov-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Feb-12

Dec-11

Nov-11

0

in November 2013 when we saw 91 contracts signed. The year-over-year trend is still quite positive, with 1,185 contracts signed in the past 12 months as compared to 1,174 in the previous 12 months.


December 8, 2014


Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1100

DEC

1000

1,014

900

864

800 700

d 1

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

758 694 636 587

794

786

715 657

713

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

601

638

927

948

867

882

780

775

700

571

588

479

476

366

385

381

301

285

301

230

217

224

147 98 45

139 78 40

151 85 39

2010

2011

2012

532 470 418

522 443

This pretty graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. To compare year-to-date figures, just look at how high the top of the brown segment of the bar chart extends. You’ll note that this year’s pace of home sales (948) is higher than

NOV

284 181

668

OCT SEP AUG JUL

565

JUN

444

MAY

336 235

114 47

158 103 52

2013

2014

APR MAR FEB JAN

every year over the past four years (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). It seems quite likely that we will see the total 2014 home sales pace show an increase over the total number of sales seen in 2013.


December 8, 2014


Inventory Levels (end of month)

800

700

619 600

572

587

605 599

628 639

661

676 685

663

675 679

693

705

692 688 636

635

608

584 529

604

555 550

500

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

400

300

200

100

0

Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which be a big, significant,

weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have bee relatively stable over the past year, with a 3.4% year-over-year increase.


December 8, 2014


Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes

Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos

600

500

462 436 434

447 449

464 466

486

507

526 518

520

529

549

539 535 527

490

478

460

451 402

423

440

412

400

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

300

200

157

136

164 153 158 150

173 175 169

159

145 145

148 155 150 144 133 127 132 138

166

157 161 158 164

100

0

Two things can be noted from the graph above -- first, inventory levels have not significantly changed in the past year, and second, there is much (!) more variability in single family home inventory as compared to duplex / townhouse / condominium inventory. As shown above, there are currently 440 single family homes listed for

sale, as compared to 451 a year ago (-2.4%), and 462 two years ago. The inventory levels for attached dwellings (duplex, townhouse, condo) are rather stable from month to month, but have declined 23.3% over the past year, from 133 listings a yera ago to 164 currently active listings.


December 8, 2014


Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

600

500

420 400

444 433 437

462 466 463

483 488 480 481 474 479 441

367

d 1

432

423

407

403 393 392 401

454

383 384

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

300

199 200

179

195

204 196 195 202

217 214 219

200 194

177

162

172 166

185

201 200

210 217 212 207 182

172

100

0

Trends in inventory level currently seem to, for the most part, transcend the City / County divide. When looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has been a small decline (-2.82%) in the number of properties for sale. In the County, there has been slight increase (+6.14%) in the number of homes for sale.

Despite relatively small changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.


December 8, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes

$250,000

1,800

+29%

$122,900

$116,000

600

+6%

-0.3%

+4%

$127,700

+17%

829 800

+14%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$122,588

1,000

+14%

1,153

$169,900

1,071

d 1

+8%

$149,000

1,200

1,248

-3%

+1%

+1%

-25%

$179,000

-13%

-3%

$176,000

-5%

$175,000

+0.2%

$174,000

+15%

$192,983

1,324

+1%

$180,000

1,438

+14%

$186,000

-14%

1,507

1,400

$195,100

1,600

$195,500

1,669 +11%

$150,000

1,013 948

+17%

936 -13%

816

-7%

794 758 +4%

+9%

$200,000

864

$100,000

400

$50,000

200

$0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2013) marked the third year in a row with an increased pace of home sales --

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

showing 17% growth as compared to 4% and 9% in the previous years. As we know (page 3) the strong pace of home sales seen last year is likely to continue to increase this year, and we are seeing a small increase in median sales prices thus far in 2014.


December 8, 2014


Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period

$200,000

$179,000

$179,000

$175,000

$177,000

$175,600

$176,000

$179,250

$178,000

$175,225

$175,000

$176,500

$178,000

$176,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,250

$176,000

$175,375

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$173,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,950

$175,000

$173,000

1,500

$173,000

$174,900

$174,900

$174,900

$175,000

2,000

$190,000

$180,000

$170,000

Relatively Stable Annualized Median Sales Price 1,035

1,030

1,009

991

982

982

969

965

1,003

991

1,019

1,014

983

1,018

1,006

993

973

955

944

924

894

893

872

887

843

831

830

813

810

806

801

801

793

794

779

1,000

864

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

850

d 1

$160,000

$150,000

$140,000

$130,000 500 $120,000

$110,000

0 Nov-11

Nov-12

This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. After

Nov-13

$100,000 Nov-14

over two years of an increasing pace of home sales (orange line) we saw a market slow down that began sometime in late 2013, which seems to have reversed itself about seven months ago. Median prices continue to stay predictably between $173,000 and $176,000 - thought they have been trending up in recent months.


December 8, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes

1,200

800

+24%

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

674 $147,000

+2%

+8%

$136,000

$122,850

+9%

$133,239

600

+16%

798

$194,000

-1%

$195,000

+6%

$196,000

-7%

$185,500

-2%

$199,600

-5%

-12%

706

+20%

654 -14%

563

+12%

$225,000

$175,000

766 -18%

$170,000

+29%

-4%

909

$210,000

868 -2% 851

+8%

+3% 880

-1%

$204,500

+16%

-11%

$215,000

1,000

$223,575

1,024 n/a 1,025

$226,800

$275,000

641 622 +3% $125,000

-1% 555

400

$75,000

200

$25,000

0

-$25,000 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

The single family home market in Harrisonburg and the Rockingham County is recovering quite nicely (in most ways) compared to the overall market. Looking at all of 2013, there was a 20% increase in single family home sales as compared to 2012 sales levels. During this time, however, median sales prices actually declined

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

1%, after having shown a 6% improvement between 2011 and 2012. Year-todate in 2014, we have seen a tiny (0.5%) continued decline in median sales prices. Hopefully that trend will reverse itself as we close out the year.


December 8, 2014


Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos

-7%

529

+10%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

+5%

+9%

+47%

302

300

$118,500

$94,600

$89,000

+6%

444

$108,200

$103,100

+9%

d 1

400

483

-6% -15%

+14%

$140,000

$120,000 -37%

282

+49%

$100,000

-11%

$80,000

253 -20%

203

203

200

+3%

$160,000

450

$134,950

500

$151,000

-5%

+19%

$138,500

-3%

$134,995

$167,250

+2%

$144,000

+33%

+2%

$180,000

$154,500

-18%

$161,875

600

$160,850

644

$163,800

700

+31%

155

223 -17%

+11%

247

242 $60,000

+32%

169 $40,000

100 $20,000

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales finally rebounded in 2012 with a 32% increase in the pace of sales. This increase continued in 2013, with an 11% increase in the pace of sales, which was accompanied by a 3% increase in the median sales price

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

of these properties. This analysis shows the compilation of duplex, townhouse and condominiums sales, and it seems that in 2014 we will see an even larger increase in median sales price. These property values fell further than single family homes so this would be a welcome price recovery for such homeowners and sellers.


December 8, 2014


Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS

Recorded Trustee Deeds

1,800 1,669 1,600

1,507 1,438

1,400

1,324 1,248

1,200

1,153 1,071

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,013

1,000

948

936 829

816

800

864 758

794

600

400 270 200 56

91

63

75

70

86

93

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

97

2007

118

177

223

252

222 155

0 2000

2001

The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds. Some

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in 2013 is definitely lower as it was in 2012, as there were 3.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2012, 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2013, and now 6.1 times as many sales as foreclosures in 2014.


December 8, 2014


Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)

$0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

60

50

45

44

45

45

47

48

48

21

22

22

6.9 3.5

48

50

51

22

23

52 49

51

51

51

50

49

50

50

48

48

22

22

21

21

21

7.3

7.9

8.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

52

52

21

20

9.3

9.8

9.8

3.3

3.3

3.7

51

45

40

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

30

20

20

20

21

21

21

22

22

23

23

22

22

20

20

10

0

6.3

6.2

6.0

6.4

6.7

6.7

6.8

7.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.7

3.1

6.8

6.3

6.7

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.4

6.7

6.5

7.0

3.8

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.1

3.8

The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past two years, though

some prices ranges have shown more significant growth than others. The fastest recovery seen over the past 24 months has been in $300K - $400K and $400K+ homes.


December 8, 2014


Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k 350

317 300

305 286

298

307

317

325

$200k - $300k

330 328 309

$300k - $400k

$400k +

317

287

308 287

285

274

301

309

321

312

319 294 290

285

253 250

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

200

182 182 182 180 185 180 186

185 171

191 172

169

160

155

100 67

64

71

51

72

73

74

82

50 50

73

82

84

51

52

58

66

68

69

83

81 82

79

70

77 67

188

180

134 135 107

88

201 203

155 139

150

180

190 192

77

75

59

102

87 74 81

60

105

67

88

93

92

97 95

90 89

89

77

83

71

71 63

0

Inventory levels have remained relatively stable in most price ranges over the past year. The one exceptions is the $200K - $300K price range, which has seen a 16% increase in inventory levels. We are likely to see inventory levels fall even further over the next few months as we continue into the Winter market. When looking at

a two year window, the most signficant changes in inventory levels have been in the under $200K price range (-8.5%) and the $300K - $400K price range (+42%).


December 8, 2014


Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

45 42 40

35

37 34

35

33

32

30

28

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

27 24

25

25

23 22

17 15

10

5

9 8 7

88

7

89 7

9 8

7

9

6

10 9

6

10 9

7

10 9

7

12

12

8

8

7

7

13

8

6

24

24 21

20

19

20

25 23

12

8

6

16

11

7 6

15

14

14

11

11

6 5

16

6 6

12

6 5

17 15

13

7

6

14 12

8

6

8

6

9

9

11 10

10

10 6

6

6

6

9 9

6

9 7

6

0

With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in most price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 17 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers bought each

month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and this year we have only conistently seen that balance in the under $200K price range.


d 1

December 8, 2014


List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace

2,000

1,750

97.4%

97.7%

97.8%

98.1%

99.1%

99.1%

98.9%

100.0%

98.0% 96.9%

1,669

97.4% 96.2%

95.7%

1,507

1,500

94.7%

94.8%

95.8% 95.0%

1,438 1,324 1,248

1,250

1,153

90.0%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,071

1,013

1,000

936 829

816

750

948

864 758

85.0%

794

80.0% 500 75.0%

250

0

70.0% 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Of note, we have now essentially returned (in 2014) to that pre-boom level -- given the 97.4% average during the first eleven months of 2014. As the market continues to recover, we may see this ratio increase even further.


December 8, 2014


Median Price vs. Price Per SF Median Price

Price/SF $300,000

140

$129

$127 $121

$116

120

$97

100

$227K

$224K

$210K

$73

$76

Median Price Per SF $104

$108

$105

$215K $205K

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

80

$250,000

$113

$103

$87

d 1

$117

$200,000

$200K

$196K $186K

$81

$195K

$194K

Median Sales Price

$170K

$150,000

$147K 60

$133K

$136K

$123K $100,000

40

$50,000 20

$0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. When focusing in on 2013 and 2014 data, we can see that the median sales price has started to shift downward, though the price per square foot is increasing.


December 8, 2014


Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes

0 - 1,499 SF

1,500 - 2,500 SF

2,500+ SF

150

140

$138

$140 $133

130

$126 $123

d 1

120

$123

$122

$123

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$116

$117

$119

$112

$115

$114

$105

100

$117

$111

110

$107

$116

$103

$105

$105

$104 $103

$96

$96

2011

2012

$97

90

80 2006

2007

2008

2009

Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower

2010

2013

2014

($103/SF) than homes with less than 1500 SF ($117/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.


December 8, 2014


Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre

$120,000

450

$99,900

408 400

$100,000

$76,500

350

$36,900

$30,500

$26,000

165

$32,208

$50,500

$54,900

$56,875

$54,500

$58,300

$55,000

201

200

150

247

$54,500

250

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$42,000

261

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$80,000

$59,900

304 300

$60,000

$40,000

111

100

85

Stability 79

74 58

63

60

61

2009

2010

2011

2012

72

$20,000

50

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may have finally stabilized. We now see that there have been between 58 and 79 lot sales (of less than an acre) for each of the past six years (2008-2013). The median sales price of these lots under one

2008

2013

2014

acre also appears to be stabilizing between $50,000 and $60,000. Looking only at 2014, it seems likely that we will see between 75 and 80 sales of this type and size of property. Prices being were they are (just above $50K) is certainly helping this market to stay steady at this point.


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December 8, 2014


Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre

$80k - $100k 21 listings 10%

$100k + 10 listings 5%

$0 - $40k 34 listings 15%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$60k - $80k 57 listings 26%

$40k - $60k 98 listings 45%

220 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $55,000

Despite the fact that only 79 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2013, there are a remarkable 220 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($55,000) is very nearly identical to the 2013 median sales price of $54,900. Given last year’s 79 lot sales, if no other

lots were listed for sale, it would take 2.8 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, almost half of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011, 2012, 2013) median sales prices.


December 8, 2014


Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more

$30,000

180

$24,184

168

53

49 42

$8,234

42 40

$13,240

$16,355

68

$15,000

$10,462

$8,333

$8,245

58

77

83

$9,535

76

80

$20,000

$14,981

87

$12,003

100

$14,552

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$15,424

107

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$15,000

120

$17,713

140

60

$25,000

$21,250

160

52

47

27

$10,000

$5,000

20

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County sold quite quickly in 2013 as compared to the past five years. We are still not approaching the number of land sales that we saw in record breaking years such as 2004 and 2005, but 2013 has been a significant improvement with 68 land sales. The median price

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

per acre of lots over 1 acre in size has fallen quite a bit over the past two years, from $16,355 per acre to $10,462. The lower ($10,462) median price per acre in 2014 may be a result of only a small number of lots selling thus far.


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December 8, 2014


Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more

$100k + 16 listings 8% $50k - $100k 25 listings 12%

$0 - $10k 47 listings 22%

$40k - $50k 11 listings 5% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$30k - $40k 20 listings 9% $10k - $20k 52 listings 25% $20k - $30k 40 listings 19%

211 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $22,115 / Acre

Despite the fact that only 68 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2013, there are a remarkable 211 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $11,000 per acre, the median list price of the 240 parcels for sale is currently $22,115 per acre. Given

last year’s 68 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 3.1 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.



New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

200

186 200

180

$133

$136

$129

$129

150

109

$114

$105

80

$99

89 $94

100

$128

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$146

121

120

$130

139

$137

140

137

$150

138

140

$144

158

160

$87

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December 8, 2014

100

84

60

41

40

45

51

47 50

33

20

0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

New home builders experienced a slight increase in the pace of new home sales between 2010 and 2012 -- after steady declines since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The number of new (single family) home sales declined again in 2013 to 47 sales. The

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

median price per square foot now seems to have stabilized around $130/SF last year, where it has been for the past four years. As the inventory of re-sale homes slims down, the sales of new homes should slowly start to increase, though we are certainly not seeing that yet in 2014.


December 8, 2014



Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings

Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties

Active Residential Listings

Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months > 2 years, 10, 1%

> 2 years, 15, 3%

1 - 2 years, 85, 8% 1 - 2 years, 66, 11% 9 - 12 months, 25, 4% 9 - 12 months, 75, 7%

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

0 - 3 months, 213, 35%

0 - 3 months, 392, 38% 6 - 9 months, 154, 15% 6 - 9 months, 109, 18%

3 - 6 months, 319, 31% 3 - 6 months, 176, 29%

Median Days On Market: 117

Median Days On Market: 132

Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, more than 1 out of 3 homes (38%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that close in the next 90 days (31%) and we find that an amazing

69% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market. Of interest -- 35% of the homes currently on the market for sale have been listed in the past three months.


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December 8, 2014


Days on Market Analysis by Price Range Properties Sold in the Past 12 Months

0 -3 Months

All Homes

Med = 117

Under $200k

Med = 113

3 - 6 Months

6 - 9 Months

9 - 12 Months

1 - 2 Years

2+ Years

38%

31%

15%

7%

8%

1%

38%

31%

15%

8%

8%

1%

31%

15%

6%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$200k - $300k

37%

Med = 122

$300k - $400k

41%

Med = 115

$400k and up

27%

32%

Med = 135

0%

10%

15%

34%

20%

30%

40%

The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market only varies slightly based on the price range of the home in question. For example, the median days on market for homes under $200K is 113 days -- only a bit lower than the median of 135 days for homes over $400K. It is important to consider the price range, location, and

50%

9%

60%

70%

8%

5%

11%

80%

12%

11%

90%

2%

0%

2%

100%

many other factors when trying to understand how long it may take to sell your home, but it seems that the price range alone will not necessarily dictate how long it will take to sell.


Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac

6.00%

3.00% Nov-11

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Nov-12

3.97%

4.20%

Nov-13

3.98%

4.10%

4.12%

4.14%

4.12%

4.33%

4.40%

4.37%

4.32%

4.48%

4.29%

4.10%

4.32%

4.51%

3.81%

3.40%

3.57%

3.51%

3.53%

3.35%

3.32%

3.41%

3.59%

3.50%

3.40%

3.49%

3.66%

3.75%

4.00%

3.88%

3.99%

3.95%

3.98%

3.95%

4.50%

3.98%

5.00%

4.31%

4.46%

5.50%

Nov-14

Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA

5.0%

5.5%

5.6%

5.5%

5.3% 4.1%

5.2%

4.9%

4.7%

4.4%

5.3%

4.50%

4.7%

5.0%

5.3%

5.9%

6.1%

5.7% 4.6%

5.4%

5.00%

4.9%

5.6%

5.1%

5.2%

5.3%

5.5%

6.5%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

5.9%

6.3%

5.9%

6.0%

5.8%

5.3%

5.50%

5.6%

6.00%

5.7%

6.50%

5.3%

7.00%

5.6%

Unemployment Rate 6.1%

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December 8, 2014

4.00% 3.50% 3.00% Sep-11

Sep-12

As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen relatively stable mortgage interest rates over the past year, but have dipped below 4% during the past month. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past few years, but has been stable

Sep-13

Sep-14

(no change from 5%) over the past 12 months. A relatively stable local job market and extremely low long-term interest rates are certainly helping our local real estate market to stabilize and grow.


Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker Scott P. Rogers, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to condo developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction. Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Scott serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, Harrisonburg Children’s Museum and the James Madison University Alumni Association. Tambien, Scott habla espanol, y puede ayudar gente y familias quien quisiera utilizar un Realtor bilingue. Si usted necesita servicio en espanol, llamar a Scott. Scott puede ayudarle a comprar o vender casas. In 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.

For more information, or with questions, contact: SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile) [email protected]

Local Online Real Estate Resources

December 8, 2014

Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home Online WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham HarrisonburgREO.com Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgShortSales.com Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
