Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

JANUARY 2015 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through December 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

2014 YEAR IN REVIEW

FEBRUARY 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

MARCH 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through February 28, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

An analysis of real estate activity through January 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

Four Bedroom Colonial in Barrington with Walkout Basement, Fenced Yard . . . $369,000 . . . 3050BaybrookDrive.com

Upgraded 4 BR, 3 BA Home With Open Floor Plan, Beautiful Finishes . . . . . . . . . $279,900 . . . 4320WiltshireStreet.com

APRIL 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report An analysis of real estate activity through March 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

Updated 4 BR, 3.5 BA Colonial in Bridgwater with Large Backyard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310VictoriaDrive.com

MAY 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

JUNE 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

An analysis of real estate activity through April 30, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

An analysis of real estate activity through May 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

Charming 3 BR, 2 BA Victorian Home on Large, 0.8 Acre Lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1103DicesSpringRoad.com

Upgraded, End Unit, Brick Front, 3 BR, 2.5 BA Townhouse in Taylor Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2944CrystalSpringLane.com

JULY 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

AUGUST 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

SEPTEMBER 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

OCTOBER 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

NOVEMBER 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

DECEMBER 2014 Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report

An analysis of real estate activity through June 30, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

An analysis of real estate activity through July 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

An analysis of real estate activity through August 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

An analysis of real estate activity through September 30, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

An analysis of real estate activity through October 31, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

An analysis of real estate activity through November 30, 2014 provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group

3 Bedroom, 2500+ SF Home on 1 Acre with Amazing Eastern Views . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7894McGaheysvilleRoad.com

4 Bedroom, 3 Bathroom, 3000+ SF Home with Fenced Backyard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4105KalebDrive.com

4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bathroom, 2496 SF Barrington Colonial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3273BarringtonDrive.com

Beautifully Updated Farmhouse with Barn on 5.9 Acres . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1207ThreeSpringsRoad.com

Custom-Built Four Bedroom Colonial in Magnolia Ridge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4570MagnoliaRidgeDrive.com

Immaculate Home in Private Setting Just North of Harrisonburg City Limits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3339DeaversLane.com

Median Days on Market

+3%

+2%

+2% -1%

Home Sales

Median Sales Price

Inventory Levels

d 1

January 8, 2015

HOME SALES REPORT Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

# Home Sales

January 8, 2015

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

December

79

56

87

92

5.75%

Year-To-Date (Jan-Dec)

794

865

1,013

1,041

2.76%

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

December

$169,900

$180,000

$172,000

$179,750

4.51%


$174,000

$175,000

$176,000

$179,500

1.99%

Average Sales Price

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

December

$187,406

$194,578

$187,589

$202,848

8.13%


$195,068

$193,610

$199,181

$203,612

2.22%


2011

2012

2013

2014

% Change ('13 - '14)

December

145

151

103

122

18.45%


148

143

120

119

-0.83%

Median Sales Price

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

December 2014 home sales exceeded levels seen during the past three months of December, which brought the year-to-date pace of home sales up 2.76% to an annual pace of 1,041 home sales. Looking at 2014 as a whole, the median sales price increased 2% to $179,500 and the average sales price increased 2% to $203,612.

The time it took to sell a home in 2014 (median of 119 days) did not significantly change as compared to last year when it took a median of 120 days to sell a home. The local housing market has now experienced three years in a row of growth in the number of homes selling each year.

Report courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on information from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) or its MLS, for the period 01/01/2000 through 12/31/2014.

January 8, 2015

HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREA City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

# Home Sales

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

December

38

29

-23.68%

49

63

28.57%

Year-To-Date

379

355

-6.33%

634

686

8.20%

d 1

. Rockingham County

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

City of Harrisonburg

Median Sales Price

2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

December

$147,750

$188,500

27.58%

$198,000

$176,750

-10.73%

Year-To-Date

$160,000

$172,000

7.50%

$190,000

$185,000

-2.63%

City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County


2013

2014

% Change

2013

2014

% Change

December

118

172

45.76%

89

115

29.21%

Year-To-Date

114

111

-2.63%

122

124

1.64%

If we dig a bit deeper into the sales data, looking at how the City and County are performing individually, the first thing we notice is that there has certainly been a decline in sales pace in the City (-6.33%) that was not seen in the County (+8.20%). Of interest, however, is that the median sales price is increasing (+7.50%) in the City,

while it is decreasing (-2.63%) in the County. These price trends are observed when comparing January through December sales data for 2013 and 2014. Homes in the City are selling more quickly (median of 111 days on the market) as compared to in the County (124 days).


Harrisonburg & Rockingham County

Month-By-Month Home Sales History 140

2011

108 103

100

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

67 60

52 47 40

39 40

51 46

67

78 77 73

77

95

84 81

94

2013 2014

112

104

101 97

80

112

2012

December 2014 92 Home Sales

121

120

Single Family, Townhome & Condo Sales

d 1

January 8, 2015

107

108 95

92 87

77

79

68

80 79

87

79

75

67

66 61 55

92

65 60

56

58

56

OCT

NOV

DEC

38

20

0 JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

Looking back at the entirety of 2014, it was certainly a roller coast of a year. After a quick start in January (highest sales level in three years) the next three months (Feb-Apr) showed significantly slower than normal sales levels. The pace of sales accelerated into the Spring and Summer market, declined sharply in November (as

JUL

AUG

SEP

usual) and then peaked in December with the highest level of home sales seen in the past three years. As we look forward at 2015, we are likely to see slower home sales over the next three months (Jan-Mar) in the 40 to 60 sales per month range before we again hit the fast paced Spring market.


January 8, 2015


Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties 160 145

143 140

135 123 114 116

120

107

102 96

100

93

90

87

d 1

100 98

93

90

96

56

94

91

91

76

59

77

75

70

69 60

102

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

80

80

103

96

112

107

68

58

63

56

40

Annual Pace: 1,192 contracts


20


The pace at which buyers are signing contracts to buy real estate is often an excellent indicator of the future sales performance of our local market. It is encouraging to see month by month increases in contract activity for nearly every month during 2014, and the year finished out with 1,192 contracts signed, as compared to only

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Jan-12

Dec-11

0

1,161 contracts in 2013. Of note, we are currently at an annual pace of 1,192 contracts being signed, as compared to an annual pace of 1,041 closed sales. This would indicate that approximately 87% of contracts result in closed sales in our local market, or conversely, a contract has a 13% chance of falling apart before closing.


January 8, 2015


Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales 1100

DEC

1000

1,014 927

900

864

800 700

d 1

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

758 694 636 587

794

786

715 657

713

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

601

638

884

780

776

700 588

479

476

366

385

381

301

285

301

230

217

224

147 98 45

139 78 40

151 85 39

2010

2011

2012

418

522 443

This pretty graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. To compare year-to-date figures at any point during the year, just look at how high the top of the any color segment compares to the same color in different years. This illustrates

949

867

571

532 470

1,041

284 181

NOV OCT SEP

669

AUG JUL

565

JUN

444

MAY

336 235

114 47

158 103 52

2013

2014

APR MAR FEB JAN

that the YTD pace of home sales in 2014 was lagging behind 2013 for most of the year -- in fact all the way through September. It wasn’t until we were reporting October sales that we finally saw a year-to-date increase in the pace of sales in the local market.


January 8, 2015


Inventory Levels (end of month)

800

700

600

572

587

605 599

628 639

661

676 685

663

675 679

693

705

692 688 636

635

608

584 529

555 550

604 538

500

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

400

300

200

100

0

Overall sales activity is the combined effect of many would-be home buyers deciding to make an offer on a particular home -- and those decisions are not typically taken lightly. In contrast, changes in inventory levels are the combined effect of many homeowners deciding to list their home for sale -- which be a big, significant,

weighty decision, but it is not always so. Some homes that are on the market have been listed for sale by sellers who are “testing the market” and as a result, inventory levels can shift more quickly than home sales trends. Inventory levels have been relatively stable over the past year, with a 1.7% year-over-year increase.


d 1

January 8, 2015


Inventory Levels by Property Type Single Family Homes

Townhomes, Duplexes, Condos

600

549 550

526 507

450

436 434

447 449

464 466

240

527 220

478 460

451 423 402

440 200

412

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

400

173 175

350

164 300 250

539 535

490

486

500

520

518

529

153

136

158 150

382 180

169

166 159

155 148

145 145 138

133

200 150 100

This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). Of interest, the number of single family homes for sale has declined by 5% from this same time of year last year -- while the number of townhouses, duplexes

127

132

157 150

161

164 158

156

160

144 140

120

100

and condos on the market for sale has increased 23%. If last year is any indication, the current inventory levels are likely the low point, and we should see steadily increasing inventory levels (in both property types) over the next few months.


January 8, 2015


Inventory Levels by Property Location City of Harrisonburg

Rockingham County

600

500

444 433 437 400

462 466 463

483 488 480 481 474 479 441

367

d 1

432

423

407

403 393 392 401

454

388

383 384

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

300

200

179

195

204 196 195 202

217 214 219

200 194

177

162

172 166

185

201 200

210 217 212 207 182

172 150

100

0

Trends in inventory level currently seem to, for the most part, transcend the City / County divide. When looking only at inventory levels in the City, we see that there has been a small decline (-7.4%) in the number of properties for sale. In the County, there has been slight increase (+5.7%) in the number of homes for sale.

Despite relatively small changes in inventory levels in the City of Harrisonburg and Rockingham County over the past year, inventory levels in the County seem much more turbulent than in the City.


January 8, 2015


Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes & Townhomes

$250,000

1,800

+29%

$122,900

$116,000

600

+6%

-0.3%

+4%

$127,700

+17%

829 800

1,248

-3%

+1%

+1%

-25%

$176,000

-13%

-3%

$175,000

-5%

816

-7%

794 758 +4%

+9%

1,041

$150,000

+3%

+17% -13%

$200,000

+2%

1,013

936

$179,500

+14%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$122,588

1,000

+14%

1,153

$169,900

1,071

d 1

+8%

$149,000

1,200

+0.2%

$174,000

+15%

$192,983

1,324

+1%

$180,000

1,438

+14%

$186,000

-14%

1,507

1,400

$195,100

1,600

$195,500

1,669 +11%

864

$100,000

400

$50,000

200

$0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2000 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). This past year (2014) marks the fourth (!) year in a row when we have seen an increase

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

(+3%) in the pace of sales in our local market, which was also accompanied by a 2% increase in the median sales price. We have now seen increases in the median sales price for three years in a row, though they have been small (+1%, +1%, +2%) increases thus far.


January 8, 2015


Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Homes # Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period

$200,000

$179,500

$179,000

$179,000

$177,000

$175,000

$175,600

$178,000

$176,000

$179,250

$175,225

$176,500

$175,000

$176,000

$178,000

$175,000

$175,000

$176,000

$175,250

$175,375

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$173,000

$173,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,000

$175,950

$175,000

$174,900

1,500

$173,000

$174,900

$174,900

2,000

$190,000

$180,000

$170,000

Relatively Stable Annualized Median Sales Price 1,041

1,036

1,031

1,010

983

991

982

969

991

965

1,019

1,003

1,014

1,018

983

1,006

993

973

955

944

924

894

893

872

864

831

843

830

813

810

801

806

801

793

794

1,000

887

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

850

d 1

$160,000

$150,000

$140,000

$130,000 500 $120,000

$110,000

0 Dec-11

Dec-12

This graph shows a rolling 12 months of the number of home sales in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly basis. After

Dec-13

$100,000 Dec-14

over two years of an increasing pace of home sales (orange line) we saw a market slow down that began sometime in late 2013, which seems to have reversed itself about eight months ago. Median prices continue to stay predictably between $173,000 and $180,000 - though they have been trending up in recent months.


January 8, 2015


Home Sales & Price Trends Single Family Homes

1,200

+24%

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

674 $147,000

+2%

+8%

$136,000

$122,850

+9%

$133,239

600

+16%

-1%

798 -18%

$195,000

+6%

$196,000

-7%

$185,500

$199,600

-2%

-12%

$170,000

+29%

-5%

$192,250

800

-4%

909

$210,000

868 -2% 851

+8%

+3% 880

-1%

$204,500

+16%

-11%

$215,000

1,000

$223,575

1,024 n/a 1,025

$226,800

$275,000

$225,000

766 +2% 780

$175,000

-1%

+20%

654 -14%

563

+12%

641 622 +3% $125,000

-1% 555

400

$75,000

200

$25,000

0

-$25,000 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

The single family home market in Harrisonburg and the Rockingham County is still telling two different stories, depending on whether we are considering the price or pace of home sales. This past year (2014) marked the fourth year of an increasing pace of home sales with a 2% year-over-year increase to a pace of 780 home sales

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

during the year. Over the past year, however, the median sales price of single family homes dropped an additional 1% to $192,250 -- which follows last year’s 1% decline as compared to 2012 levels. It seems that single family home values may not have started increasing again in this local market.


January 8, 2015


Home Sales & Price Trends Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos

-7%

529

+10%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

+5%

+9%

+47%

302

300

$118,500

$94,600

$89,000

+6%

444

$108,200

$103,100

+9%

d 1

400

483

-6% -15%

+14%

$140,000

$120,000 -37%

282

+49%

$100,000

-11%

253 -20%

203

203

200

+3%

$160,000

450

$134,950

500

+10%

$152,000

-5%

+19%

$138,500

-3%

$134,995

$167,250

+2%

$144,000

+33%

+2%

$180,000

$154,500

-18%

$161,875

600

$160,850

644

$163,800

700

+31%

155

223 -17%

+11%

247 +6%

261

$80,000

$60,000

+32%

169 $40,000

100 $20,000

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

After six years of rapid declines in the pace of townhouse sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, the pace of sales finally rebounded in 2012 with a 32% increase in the pace of sales. This increase continued in 2013, with an 11% increase in the pace of sales, which was accompanied by a 3% increase in the median sales price

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

of these properties. This past year (2014) marked an additional increase (+6%) in the pace of these sales (duplexes, townhomes, condos) and an even larger increase (+10%) in the median price of these sales. We have now nearly returned to the median sales price in 2010 ($154,500).


January 8, 2015


Home Sales vs. Trustee Sales Home Sales per HRAR MLS

Recorded Trustee Deeds

1,800 1,669 1,600

1,507 1,438

1,400

1,324 1,248

1,200

1,153 1,071

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,013

1,000

1,041

936 829

816

800

864 758

794

600

400 270 200 56

91

63

75

70

86

93

97

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

118

177

223

252

222

163

0 2000

2001

The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales (without a Realtor), nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of Trustee Deeds.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area is definitely trending down, as there were 4.6 times as many home sales as foreclosures during 2013 and 6.4 times as many home sales as foreclosures in 2014.


January 8, 2015


Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)

$0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

60

50

44

45

45

47

48

48

48

50

51

22

23

52 49

51

51

51

50

49

50

50

22

21

21

21

7.3

7.9

8.0

4.0

3.8

3.7

48

48

22

52

52

53

21

20

20

9.3

9.8

9.8

9.8

3.3

3.3

3.7

3.8

51

45

40

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

30

20

20

21

21

21

22

21

22

6.9

6.8

3.5

3.8

22

22

23

23

22

22

20

20

10

0

6.2

6.0

6.4

6.7

6.7

6.8

7.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.7

3.1

6.3

6.7

6.8

6.8

6.7

6.4

6.7

6.5

7.0

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.1

3.8

The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have increased in all price ranges over the past two years, though

some prices ranges have shown more significant growth than others. The fastest recovery seen over the past 12 months has been in the $300K - $400K price range. The pace of home sales in the $200K - $300K price range has actually declined over the past year.


January 8, 2015


Inventory Levels by Price Range $0 - $200k 350

305 300

286

298

307

317

325

$200k - $300k

330 328 309

$300k - $400k

317

287

$400k +

308 287

285

274

301

309

321

312

319 294 290

285

269

253 250

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

200

171

182 182 182 180 185 180 186

191 172

169

160

155

100 64

71

72

73

74

82

50 51

73

82

84

51

52

58

66

68

69

83

81 82

70 79

77

180

134 135

77

75

60

59

105

102

87 74 81

67

188

158

107 88

201 203

155 139

150

180

190 192

67

88

93

92

97 95

90 89

89

77

83

71 57

71

63

54

0

Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, but we are also seeing differences in year-over-year trajectories in each of the four price ranges outlined above. The highest two price ranges ($300K-$400K, $400K+) have seen a year-over-year decline in inventory levels, while the lower two price ranges ($0-$200K, $200K-$300K) ahve

seen increasing inventory levels. All four price ranges are likely to see inventory levels rise over the next few months as we (hopefully, eventually) get out of this cold (!) winter and move towards the Spring market.


January 8, 2015


Months of Housing Supply by Price Range $0 - $200k

$200k - $300k

$300k - $400k

$400k +

45 42 40

35

37 35

33

32

30

28

d 1

27

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

24

25

25

23 22

17 15

10

5

88

7

89 7

9 8

7

9

6

10 9

6

10 9

7

10 9

7

12

12

8

8

7

7

13

8

6

24

24 21

20

19

20

25 23

12

8

6

16

11

7 6

15

14

14

11

11

6 5

16

6 6

12

6 5

17 15

13

7

6

14

14 12

8

8

9

9

11 10

10 10

9

9

8

9 6

6

6

6

6

6

7

6

6

6 5

0

With so many homes on the market (lots of sellers) and so few home sales (not so many buyers), there are very high levels of supply in most price ranges our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that it would take 14 months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same number of buyers bought each

month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months. Many experts consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers, and this year we have only conistently seen that balance in the under $200K price range, and are starting to approach it in the $300K - $400K price range.


d 1

January 8, 2015


Average List Price to Sales Price Ratio within the context of Home Sales Pace

2,000

1,750

97.4%

97.7%

97.8%

98.1%

99.1%

99.1%

98.9%

100.0%

98.0% 96.9%

1,669

96.2%

95.7%

1,507

1,500

94.7%

94.8%

95.8%

96.4% 95.0%

1,438 1,324 1,248

1,250

1,153

90.0%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

1,071

1,013

1,000

1,041

936 829

816

750

85.0%

864 758

794

80.0% 500 75.0%

250

0

70.0% 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 12+ years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain an average of 99% of their asking price --- up from an average of 97.4% in 2000 before home sales started escalating.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Of note, we have now almost returned (in 2014) to that pre-boom level -- given the 96.4% average during 2014. As the market continues to recover, we may see this ratio increase even further.


January 8, 2015


Median Price vs. Price Per SF Median Price

Price/SF $300,000

140

$129

$127 $121

$116

120

$97

100

$227K

$224K

$210K

$73

$76

Median Price Per SF $104

$107

$105

$215K $205K

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

80

$250,000

$113

$103

$87

d 1

$117

$200,000

$200K

$196K $186K

$81

$195K

$194K

Median Sales Price

$170K

$150,000

$147K 60

$133K

$136K

$123K $100,000

40

$50,000 20

$0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 10+ years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. When focusing in on 2013 and 2014 data, we can see that the median sales price has started to shift downward, though the price per square foot is increasing.


January 8, 2015


Median Price Per Square Foot by Home Size Single Family Homes

0 - 1,499 SF

1,500 - 2,500 SF

2,500+ SF

150

140

$138

$140 $133

130

$126 $123

d 1

120

$123

$122

$123

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$116

$117

$119

$112

$115

$114

$105

100

$116

$111

110

$107

$116

$103

$105

$105

$104 $103

$96

$96

2011

2012

$97

90

80 2006

2007

2008

2009

Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of a similar size. This graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes (2500+ SF) is a good bit lower

2010

2013

2014

($103/SF) than homes with less than 1500 SF ($116/SF). These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.


January 8, 2015


Lot Sales & Median Prices less than 1 acre

$120,000

450

$99,900

408 400

$100,000

$76,500

350

$36,900

$30,500

$26,000

165

$32,208

$54,900

$54,900

$56,875

$54,500

$58,300

$55,000

201

200

150

247

$54,500

250

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$42,000

261

d 1

$80,000

$59,900

304 300

$60,000

Stability $40,000

111

100

85

Growth

79

74 58

63

60

61

2009

2010

2011

2012

83 $20,000

50

0

$0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

While the pace of sales of lots that are smaller than an acre have plummeted since 2004 (-85% between 2004 and 2010), they may finally be increasing again, as we have seen approximately 80 sales per year for the past two years, after four years in a row of approximately 60 lot sales per year. The median sales price of these

2008

2013

2014

lots under one acre also appears to be stabilizing between $50,000 and $60,000. If these trends continue, we may see as many as 90 (or more?) lot sales in 2015, and we may start to see the median price of lots increase again, perhaps approaching $57,000 or $58,000 in the coming year.


d 1

January 8, 2015


Price Distribution of Active Lot Inventory less than 1 acre

$100k + 10 listings 5% $80k - $100k 19 listings 10%

$0 - $40k 31 listings 16%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$60k - $80k 44 listings 23%

$40k - $60k 85 listings 45%

189 Active Lot Listings; Median List Price: $59,000

Despite the fact that only 83 lots (of less than an acre) sold in all of 2014, there are a remarkable 189 lots currently for sale. Some sanity exists in this listing market, however, as the median list price of lots for sale ($59,000) is not too far off from the 2014 median sales price of $54,900. Given last year’s 83 lot sales, if no other lots

were listed for sale, it would take 2.3 years to sell all of the lots currently listed for sale. As you can see above, more than a third of the lots currently listed for sale are priced above $60,000 --- thus many sellers have offering prices higher than recent (2011-2014) median sales prices.



Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre 1 acre or more

$20,000

$13,240

$14,981

$16,355

$15,424

$25,000

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$10,092

$9,535

$8,333

120

$8,245

140

$12,003

160

$15,000

$17,713

168

$14,552

180

$30,000

$21,250

$24,184

200

$8,234

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January 8, 2015

107

$15,000

$10,000

100

87 80

60

77

76

$5,000

83 68

58

57

53 42

49

42

$0

47 -$5,000

40

27 -$10,000

20

-$15,000

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County peaked in 2013 at 68 sales, and then declined again 2014 to only 57 sales. The median price per acre of these lots with over 1 acre continued to fall in 2014, to a price of $10,092 per acre. This is far (far!) below the peak of $24,184 per acre that was seen back in

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2007. Looking forward at 2015, we are likely to see between 60 and 75 sales of this property type, and if the pace of sales does increase in 2015, perhaps we will see a slower decline (or none at all??) in the median sales price of these parcels.


d 1

January 8, 2015


Price/Acre Distribution of Active Land Inventory 1 acre or more

$100k + 15 listings 8% $50k - $100k 24 listings 12%

$0 - $10k 42 listings 21%

$40k - $50k 8 listings 4% 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$30k - $40k 18 listings 9% $10k - $20k 51 listings 26% $20k - $30k 40 listings 20%

198 Active Land Listing; Median List Price: $22,048 / Acre

Despite the fact that only 57 parcels of land (of one acre or more) sold in all of 2014, there are a remarkable 198 parcels of land currently for sale. Furthermore, despite the fact that the median sales price of land is hovering around $10,000 per acre, the median list price of the 198 parcels for sale is currently $22,048 per acre. Given

last year’s 57 land sales, if no other land is listed for sale, it would take 3.5 years to sell all of the parcels of land currently listed for sale. As you can see above, the vast majority of land listed for sale is listed at median prices per acre well above the median sales price per acre.



New Construction Single Family Home Sales Trends Number of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot

200

186 200

180

$133

$136

$129

$129

150

109

$114

$105

80

$99

89 $94

100

$128

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$146

121

120

$130

139

$137

140

137

$150

138

140

$144

158

160

$87

d 1

January 8, 2015

100

84

60

41

40

45

51

47 38

50

20

0

0 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

New home builders experienced a slight increase in the pace of new home sales between 2010 and 2012 -- after steady declines since 2005. These increases (41 to 45 to 51) in sales pace, however, still leave plenty of room for improvement. The number of new (single family) home sales declined again in 2013 to 47 sales, and

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

declined again in 2014 to 38 sales. The median price per square foot, however, now seems to have stabilized around $130/SF last year, and even increased in 2014 to $136/SF.


January 8, 2015


Days on Market Analysis of Sold Properties Residential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months > 2 years, 11, 1%


Days on Market Analysis of Active Listings Active Residential Listings

> 2 years, 16, 3%

1 - 2 years, 89, 9% 1 - 2 years, 52, 10% 9 - 12 months, 78, 7% 9 - 12 months, 37, 7%

d 1

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

0 - 3 months, 145, 27%

0 - 3 months, 387, 37% 6 - 9 months, 152, 15% 6 - 9 months, 115, 21%

3 - 6 months, 173, 32%

3 - 6 months, 324, 31%

Median Days On Market: 119

Median Days On Market: 143

Despite high inventory levels, and low numbers of buyers in the market, the homes that are actually selling are selling rather quickly. In fact, more than 1 out of 3 homes (37%) that sells closes less than 90 days after being listed for sale. Include with that those that close in the next 90 days (31%) and we find that an amazing

68% of homes that sell have closed within six months of first coming on the market. This is not, however accounting for the many homes that never sell -- that linger on the market, or are eventually taken off the market. Of interest -- 27% of the homes currently on the market for sale have been listed in the past three months.


d 1

January 8, 2015


Days on Market Analysis by Price Range Properties Sold in the Past 12 Months

0 -3 Months

All Homes

Med = 119

Under $200k

Med = 116

3 - 6 Months

6 - 9 Months

9 - 12 Months

1 - 2 Years

2+ Years

37%

31%

15%

7%

9%

1%

37%

32%

15%

8%

8%

1%

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

$200k - $300k

37%

Med = 122

$300k - $400k

30%

42%

Med = 115

$400k and up

26%

33%

Med = 135

0%

10%

15%

15%

33%

20%

30%

40%

The time that it takes to sell a home in today’s market only varies slightly based on the price range of the home in question. For example, the median days on market for homes under $200K is 116 days -- quite a bit lower than the median of 135 days for homes over $400K. It is important to consider the price range, location, and

50%

9%

60%

70%

7%

9%

5%

12%

15%

80%

9%

90%

2%

0%

2%

100%

many other factors when trying to understand how long it may take to sell your home, but it seems that the price range alone will not necessarily dictate how long it will take to sell.


Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rate Source: Freddie Mac

6.00%

3.00% Dec-11

7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

Dec-12

3.87%

3.98%

Dec-13

3.97%

4.20%

4.10%

4.12%

4.14%

4.12%

4.33%

4.40%

4.37%

4.32%

4.48%

4.29%

4.10%

4.32%

4.51%

3.81%

3.40%

3.57%

3.51%

3.53%

3.35%

3.32%

3.41%

3.50%

3.40%

3.59%

3.49%

3.66%

3.75%

4.00%

3.88%

3.99%

3.98%

3.95%

4.50%

3.95%

5.00%

4.31%

4.46%

5.50%

Dec-14

Harrisonburg-Rockingham MSA

4.1%

4.8%

5.5%

5.0%

5.5%

5.6%

5.3% 4.1%

5.2%

4.9%

4.7%

4.7%

5.3%

5.9%

5.3%

5.0%

4.4%

4.50%

6.1%

5.7% 4.6%

5.4%

4.9%

5.00%

5.6%

5.1%

5.2%

5.3%

5.5%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

5.9%

6.5%

6.3%

5.9%

5.3%

5.50%

5.8%

6.00%

5.6%

6.50%

5.7%

7.00%

6.0%

Unemployment Rate

5.3%

d 1

January 8, 2015

4.00% 3.50% 3.00% Nov-11

Nov-12

As shown in the top graph above, home buyers have seen steadily (though slowly) declining mortgage interest rates over the past year, which are now down to an average of 3.87%, the lowest levels seen in the past year and a half. The second graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown

Nov-13

Nov-14

a general downward trend over the past three years, to the current level of 4.1% which is the lowest level seen anytime in the past three years. A stable local job market and extremely low long-term interest rates are certainly helping our local real estate market to stabilize and grow.


Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker Scott P. Rogers, has built a successful real estate career around providing valuable market data, insight and analysis to buyers, sellers, investors and developers. From first time home buyers to condo developers, Scott provides exceptional and comprehensive service before, during and after the real estate transaction. Scott earned a B.A. and M.Ed. from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and leverage high caliber technology and marketing solutions.

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7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM

In 2007, Scott began providing in depth analysis and insight into the local real estate market via his real estate blog, at HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Scott serves on the Board of Directors for the Shenandoah Valley Builders Association, Harrisonburg Children’s Museum and the James Madison University Alumni Association. Tambien, Scott habla espanol, y puede ayudar gente y familias quien quisiera utilizar un Realtor bilingue. Si usted necesita servicio en espanol, llamar a Scott. Scott puede ayudarle a comprar o vender casas. In 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 Scott was recognized by the Harrisonburg / Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors.

For more information, or with questions, contact: SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker 540-578-0102 (mobile) [email protected]

Local Online Real Estate Resources

January 8, 2015

Central Shenandoah Valley Property Search ScottPRogers.com Mobile Real Estate Apps HarrisonburgApps.com Monthly Real Estate Market Reports HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com Ongoing Housing Market Analysis & Commentary HarrisonburgHousingToday.com Comprehensive Data on Harrisonburg Townhouse Communities HarrisonburgTownhouses.com The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a Home Online WalkThroughThisHome.com Analysis of Property Assessments HarrisonburgAssessments.com New Construction Homes For Sale HarrisonburgNewHomes.com Half Million (plus) Homes in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County HarrisonburgLuxuryHomes.com Most Recent Listings in Harrisonburg, Rockingham County NewListingsInHarrisonburg.com Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgForeclosures.com Bank Owned Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham HarrisonburgREO.com Potential Short Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgShortSales.com Owner Financed Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgOwnerFinancing.com Lease/Purchase Properties in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgLeasePurchase.com Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham County HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
