Hindustan Unilever Ltd. - Moneycontrol

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

RESULT UPDATE

18th July, 2018

India Equity Institutional Research II

II 18th July, 2018

Result Update - Q1FY19

Hindustan Unilever Ltd CMP

Target

INR 1,640 INR 1,800

Page 2

Sustainable Volume Growth Ahead

Potential Upside

Market Cap (INR Mn)

Recommendation

Sector

9.8%

3,558,225

ACCUMULATE

FMCG

Result highlights Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) posted its Q1FY19 results which were above our estimates on YoY basis. Net revenue for Q1FY19 stood at INR 94.8 Bn (+11.2 YoY), as against our estimate of INR 92.8 Bn. A revival in consumer sentiments and pick-up in consumer demand, especially in rural India has resulted in volume momentum during the quarter. The top line was mainly driven by Foods & Refreshments segment, which reported revenue of INR 17.8 Bn (+8% YoY). EBIDTA stood at INR 22.5 Bn (+20.6% YoY), with OPM at 23.7% (+185 bps YoY). Reduction in purchase of trade goods by 20% on YoY basis has resulted in higher EBITDA and OPM during the quarter. PAT for Q1FY19 stood at INR 15.3 Bn (+19.2% YoY), with NPM of 16.1% (+107 bps YoY). An increase in other income by 19.5% YoY has resulted in higher PAT and NPM during the quarter. MARKET DATA

KEY FINANCIALS

Shares outs (Mn)

2164

EquityCap (INR Mn)

2165

Mkt Cap (INR Mn)

3558225

52 Wk H/L (INR)

1779/1131

Volume Avg (3m K)

Particulars (INR Mn) Net Sales EBITDA PAT OPM (%) NPM (%) EPS PE (x)

1375

Face Value (INR)

1

Bloomberg Code

HUVR IN

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

Volume based growth across segments: HUL reported its Q1FY19 revenue of INR 94.8 Bn (+11.2% YoY). During the quarter, the comparable consumer growth was around 16% and volume growth stood at 12% owing to low base which was impacted by demonetization. The transition phase of GST had impacted the top line in last few quarters but now as the wholesale channel is gradually normalizing and market is showing positive sign of demand picking up. There was healthier growth from Foods & Refreshments segment with reported growth of +8% YoY & comparable +14% YoY, followed by Home Care with reported growth of +4% YoY & comparable +20% YoY and Personal Care with reported of +1% YoY & comparable +14% YoY. Personal Care and Home Care contributes the largest portion of the total revenue with 46.5% (+142.7 bps YoY) and 33.2% respectively, the Foods & Refreshments segment contributes around 18.8% with INR 17.8 Bn of the total revenue.

SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE

200

150

100

Hindustan Unilever Ltd

Jul-18

Jan-18

Jul-17

Jan-17

Jul-16

Jan-16

50 Jul-15

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E 314,407.4 334,910.0 318,900.0 345,250.0 376,322.5 412,073.1 58,443.0 57,491.7 60,470.0 72,760.0 81,285.7 89,831.9 49,513.2 41,365.6 44,900.0 52,370.0 58,385.8 65,082.3 18.6% 17.2% 19.0% 21.1% 21.6% 21.8% 15.7% 12.4% 14.1% 15.2% 15.5% 15.8% 22.9 19.1 20.8 24.2 27.0 30.1 38.1 45.5 43.8 55.2 60.7 54.5

Sensex

MARKET INFO SENSEX

36273

NIFTY

10980

Improved margins but concern over inflating input costs: EBIDTA margins saw an improvement of 185 bps YoY which stood at 23.7% in Q1FY19. EBIDTA was at INR 22.5 Bn (+20.6% YoY), it saw an improvement due operational efficiency, reduction in purchase of traded goods by 20% YoY and other cost saving strategies adopted by the company. Segmental margins for Personal care products was around 26.4% (+166 bps YoY), for Home care margins were at 19.1% (+443 bps YoY). Foods & Refreshments margins stood at 18.7% (+55 bps YoY). PAT Q1FY19 stood at INR 15.3 Bn (+19.2% YoY), with NPM at 16.1% (+107 bps YoY). Valuations & Outlook: HUL subsist as one of the largest player in consumer sector and a market leader in many of its segments like detergents, soaps, etc. During Q1FY19, we believe with GST it has faced some trade disruption but it soon recovered back to normal. HUL has benefitted from the GST rates and have cut down its product’s price by 3-4%. HUL strategy to remain same like investing behind its brands, focusing on core business with innovative products and concentrate on volume lead growth with improvement in cost across its segments and lastly focus to remain on improving demand in rural areas. We expect revenue growth of around 8-10% in FY19E & FY20E on back on improving demand scenario, premium products, brand recall, etc. Whereas we would see improvement in its EBIDTA and PAT margins by 80-100 bps and by 50-70 bps respectively, due to its ongoing strategy of controlling cost. At CMP of INR 1,640 HUL is trading at P/E of 54.5x for FY20E. We assign P/E multiple of 59.8x and revising the target price to INR 1,800 with “ACCUMULATE” rating on the stock representing an upside of 9.8%.

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Jun 18

Mar 18

Promoters

Particulars

67.19

67.19

67.2

FIIs

12.15

12.57

12.89

DIIs Others Total

Dec 17

7.27

6.85

6.29

13.39

13.4

13.63

100

100

100

ANALYST Dhavan Shah, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5502 Kunal Jagda, [email protected], +91-22-6696 5502

8.9%

13.2%

Revenue CAGR between FY17 and FY20E

PAT CAGR between FY17 and FY20E

KRChoksey Research is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ

+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576 www.krchoksey.com



II 18th July, 2018

Page 3

Hindustan Unilever Ltd Q1FY19 Result Snapshot Exhibit 1: Quarterly Income Statement (INR Mn) Particulars

Q1FY19

Q4FY18

Q1FY18

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

Net Sales & Other Operating Income

94,870.0

90,970.0

85,290.0

4.3%

11.2%

Total Expenditure

72,360.0

70,490.0

66,630.0

2.7%

8.6%

Cost of Raw Materials

33,790.0

35,140.0

29,040.0

-3.8%

16.4%

Purchase of Finished Goods

9,050.0

8,550.0

11,280.0

5.8%

-19.8% 53.8%

(Increase) / Decrease In Stocks

800.0

-550.0

520.0

-245.5%

Employee Cost

4,420.0

4,000.0

4,190.0

10.5%

5.5%

Selling & Distribution

11,530.0

10,700.0

9,050.0

7.8%

27.4%

Operating & Manufacturing Expenses EBIDTA EBITDA Margins (%)

12,770.0

12,650.0

12,550.0

0.9%

1.8%

22,510.0

20,480.0

18,660.0

9.9%

20.6%

23.7%

22.5%

21.9%

121 bps

185 bps

Depreciation

1,270.0

1,280.0

1,140.0

-0.8%

11.4%

EBIT

21,240.0

19,200.0

17,520.0

10.6%

21.2%

Other Income

1,350.0

1,000.0

1,130.0

35.0%

19.5%

70.0

40.0

60.0

75.0%

16.7%

22,520.0

20,160.0

18,590.0

11.7%

21.1%

Interest PBT Tax

6,640.0

6,010.0

5,630.0

10.5%

17.9%

PAT before Exceptional

15,880.0

14,150.0

12,960.0

12.2%

22.5%

PAT Margin (%)

16.7%

15.6%

15.2%

118 bps

154 bps

Exceptional Items

-590.0

-640.0

-130.0

-7.8%

353.8%

15,290.0

13,510.0

12,830.0

13.2%

19.2%

16.1%

14.9%

15.0%

127 bps

107 bps

7.1

6.2

5.9

13.2%

19.2%

Q1FY19

Q4FY18

Q1FY18

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

PAT after Exceptional PAT Margin (%) EPS Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

Exhibit 2 Segmental Revenue (INR Mn) Particulars Home Care

31,460.0

31,020.0

30,470.0

1.4%

3.2%

Personal Care

44,070.0

40,960.0

43,680.0

7.6%

0.9%

Foods & Refreshments

17,850.0

17,080.0

16,300.0

4.5%

9.5%

Others

1,490.0

1,910.0

1,680.0

-22.0%

-11.3%

0.0

0.0

6,840.0

-

-

94,870.0

90,970.0

85,290.0

4.3%

11.2%

Q1FY19

Q4FY18

Q1FY18

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

Less: Excise Duty TOTAL Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

Exhibit 3 Segment EBIT (INR Mn) Particulars Home Care

6,020.0

5,090.0

4,480.0

18.3%

34.4%

Personal Care

11,620.0

10,660.0

10,790.0

9.0%

7.7%


3,340.0

2,870.0

2,960.0

16.4%

12.8%

-20.0

20.0

-60.0

-200.0%

-66.7%

20,960.0

18,640.0

18,170.0

12.4%

15.4%

Others Total Less: Interest Exp

-70.0

-40.0

-60.0

75.0%

16.7%

Add/Less: Unallocated

1,040.0

920.0

350.0

13.0%

197.1%

PBT

21,930.0

19,520.0

18,460.0

12.3%

18.8%







II 18th July, 2018

Page 4

Hindustan Unilever Ltd Q1FY19 Result Snapshot Exhibit 4 - EBIT Margin – Segmental Particulars

Q1FY19

Q4FY18

Q1FY18

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

Home Care

19.1%

16.4%

14.7%

273bps

443bps

Personal Care

26.4%

26.0%

24.7%

34bps

166bps


18.7%

16.8%

18.2%

191bps

55bps

Others

-1.3%

1.0%

-3.6%

-30bps

-491bps


Q1FY19 Concall Highlights: Management remains optimistic of the growth in the medium term given the fact that HUL will continue on its strategy with cost saving program which will lead to improvement in margins and innovation of products which will lead to growth in revenue. Going ahead management is eyeing volume growth from rural market and margins driven by premium category. The Q1FY19 continues to be an encouraging quarter with profitable growth, improved margins and continuous innovation during the quarter. HUL is also focused on building its natural portfolio with new launch or re-launches in product segment like Vim, Hamam, Citra and Ayush. In addition to this Ayush was marketed Pan India (nationally) after successful launch of the products in south India in FY17. During the FY18 the new product ‘Indulekha’ (Hair Oil) which is part of personal care segment has cleared the clinical validity Test, this will turn out positive for HULs future growth. HUL’s transition to GST has remain smooth because of well planned strategy ahead of GST and there has been zero disruption in trade up till now. Benefits of GST has been passed to consumer on fair basis by reducing the prices by around 3-4% in the categories like detergents bars, soaps, tooth paste and hair oils. The Advertisement and Promotional spent remained higher during the quarter because of new launches and promotion of ‘Ayush’ on National level. Segment Performance Home Care: Strong double digit growth was seen in mass product category like Vim Bar and also in premium laundry category. The growth in the segment was driven by Fabric Wash which recorded robust double digit growth across key brands. It has also launched Comfort Pure – Fabric conditioner for delicate baby skin. Personal Care: HUL personal care products is the largest contributor of around 46.5% to revenue and it has witnessed relatively a muted quarter, however on comparable basis it has reported sales growth of 14% YoY. The key drivers in this categories were premium products, the skin care category was back on track with robust growth led by Fare & Lovely and Pond’s. It has also launched new antidandruff range of shampoo under the Pure Derm brand. For deodorants growth was backed by new launch 0f Axe Ticket a pocket sized perfume pack and national roll-out of Rexona anti-perspirants. Food & Refreshment: The growth in Foods and Refreshment segment remained stronger with its key brands like Knor, Kissan, Bru, Red Label, Kwality Walls. In future HUL expects sustained growth from foods and refreshment category. While Ice-creams and frozen deserts has witnessed double digit growth on the back of geographic expansion. It has also launched new Kwality Walls sandwich, cloud bite & new variant of cornetto.






II 18th July, 2018

Page 5

Hindustan Unilever Ltd Exhibit 6 : Income Statement (INR Mn) Particulars

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19E

FY20E

Net Operating Income

334,910.0

318,900.0

345,250.0

376,322.5

412,073.1

Total Expenditure

277,418.3

258,430.0

272,490.0

295,036.8

322,241.2

Cost of Raw Materials

112,670.4

113,630.0

124,910.0

135,476.1

149,582.5

Purchase of Finished Goods

39,511.5

41,660.0

38,120.0

41,395.5

46,152.2

871.1

1,560.0

-710.0

-1,129.0

-1,236.2

Employee Cost

15,728.0

16,200.0

17,450.0

18,816.1

19,367.4

Advertisement Exps

35,999.7

34,700.0

41,050.0

45,158.7

48,624.6

Other Expenses

72,637.6

50,680.0

51,670.0

55,319.4

59,750.6

EBITDA

57,491.7

60,470.0

72,760.0

81,285.7

89,831.9

17.2%

19.0%

21.1%

21.6%

21.8%

Depreciation

3,207.5

3,960.0

4,780.0

5,783.6

6,651.1

EBIT

54,284.2

56,510.0

67,980.0

75,502.1

83,180.8

5,638.1

5,260.0

5,690.0

6,397.5

7,417.3

152.7

220.0

200.0

188.2

206.0

59,769.6

61,550.0

73,470.0

81,711.4

90,392.1

-308.0

2,410.0

-620.0

-620.0

0.0

Tax

18,096.0

19,060.0

20,480.0

22,705.6

25,309.8

PAT

41,365.6

44,900.0

52,370.0

58,385.8

65,082.3

12.6%

14.3%

15.4%

15.8%

16.0%

19.1

20.8

24.2

27.0

30.1

(Increase) / Decrease In Stocks

EBITDA Margins (%)

Other Income Interest EBT Exceptional Item

PAT Margin (%) EPS Source: Company, KRChoksey Research






II 18th July, 2018

Page 6

Hindustan Unilever Ltd Exhibit 7: Balance Sheet (INR Mn) Particulars

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19E

FY20E

2,163.9

2,164.2

2,160.0

2,160.0

2,160.0

Total Reserves

60,630.0

62,740.0

68,590.0

88,189.5

109,314.1

Shareholder's Funds

62,793.9

64,904.2

70,750.0

90,349.5

111,474.1

Other Long Term Liabilities

2,020.0

2,780.0

6,660.0

7,225.4

7,911.8

Long Term Provisions

7,870.0

7,810.0

7,720.0

8,279.1

9,065.6

Total Non-Current Liabilities

72,683.9

75,494.2

85,130.0

105,854.0

128,451.5

Trade Payables

54,978.9

60,060.0

70,130.0

76,074.9

84,193.9

Other Current Liabilities

8,640.0

8,090.0

9,720.0

10,537.0

11,538.0

Short Term Provisions

2,900.0

3,870.0

6,510.0

7,074.9

7,747.0

EQUITY AND LIABILITIES Share Capital

Current Liabilities

Total Current Liabilities

66,518.9

72,020.0

86,360.0

93,686.8

103,478.9

Total Liabilities

139,202.8

147,514.2

171,490.0

199,540.8

231,930.4

ASSETS Non-Current Assets Fixed Assets

33,007.0

42,270.0

45,720.0

52,578.0

60,464.7

Non Current Investments

3,190.0

2,600.0

2,560.0

2,688.0

2,822.4

Long Term Loans & Advances

5,400.0

6,230.0

4,100.0

4,515.9

6,181.1

Deferred tax assets (Net)

1,680.0

1,600.0

2,550.0

2,550.0

2,550.0

Other non current assets

410.0

700.0

5,170.0

5,644.8

6,181.1

Total Non-Current Assets

43,687.0

53,400.0

60,100.0

67,976.7

78,199.3

Currents Investments

24,610.0

35,190.0

28,550.0

28,550.0

28,550.0

Inventories

25,283.6

23,620.0

23,590.0

25,518.8

28,242.3

Sundry Debtors

10,640.0

9,280.0

11,470.0

12,372.2

13,547.6

Cash and Bank

27,590.0

16,710.0

33,730.0

50,070.1

66,908.3

212.2

720.0

5,760.0

6,021.2

6,593.2

Other Current Assets Short Term Loans and Advances

7,180.0

8,594.2

8,290.0

9,031.7

9,889.8

Total Current Assets

95,515.8

94,114.2

111,390.0

131,564.1

153,731.1

Total Assets

139,202.8

147,514.2

171,490.0

199,540.8

231,930.4







II 18th July, 2018

Page 7

Hindustan Unilever Ltd Exhibit 8: Cash flow statement (INR Mn) Particulars PBT Depreciation and Amortization Interest Expense

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19E

FY20E

59,096.2

63,960.0

72,850.0

81,091.4

90,392.1

3,207.5

3,960.0

4,780.0

5,783.6

6,651.1

152.7

220.0

200.0

188.2

206.0

Tax

16,964.7

19,060.0

20,480.0

22,705.6

25,309.8

Cash Flow From Operating Activities

39,803.0

49,080.0

52,350.0

61,357.6

68,939.5

Cash Flow From Investing Activities

-436.5

-5,293.0

-21,917.0

-6,230.7

-8,143.5

Cash Flow From Financing Activities

-40,089.8

-43,957.8

-31,029.0

-38,786.3

-43,957.8

Increase/Decrease in Cash

-723.3

-170.8

-596.0

16,340.6

16,838.2

Opening Cash Balance

7,219.7

6,496.4

6,325.6

5,729.6

22,070.1

Closing Cash Balance

6,496.4

6,325.6

5,729.6

22,070.1

38,908.3

Bank Balance

21,093.6

10,384.4

28,000.0

28,000.0

28,000.0

Total Cash & Bank

27,590.0

16,710.0

33,729.6

50,070.1

66,908.3

Particulars

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19E

FY20E

Net Sales Growth(%)

6.5%

-4.8%

8.3%

9.0%

9.5%


Exhibit 9: Ratio Analysis

EBITDA Growth(%)

-1.6%

5.2%

20.3%

11.7%

10.5%

PAT Growth(%)

-16.5%

8.5%

16.6%

11.5%

11.5%

EBIDTA Margin (%)

17.2%

19.0%

21.1%

21.6%

21.8%

PAT Margin (%)

12.4%

14.1%

15.2%

15.5%

15.8%

EPS (Rs.)

19.1

20.8

24.2

27.0

30.1

PE (x)

45.5

43.8

55.2

60.7

54.5

EV/EBIDTA (x)

32.3

32.3

39.2

43.0

38.7

Book Value (Rs)

17.2

29.0

30.0

32.8

41.8

Price / Book Value(x)

50.5

31.4

44.5

50.1

39.2

Return on equity (RoE)

65.9%

69.2%

74.0%

64.6%

58.4%

Return on capital employed (RoCE)

42.8%

43.5%

42.6%

40.7%

39.1%







II 18th July, 2018

Page 8

Hindustan Unilever Ltd Hindustan Unilever Ltd. Date 18-Jul-18 4-Jun-18 18-Jan-18 25-Oct-17 18-July-17 17-May-17 10-Apr-17 24-Jan-17 27-Oct-16 20-Jul-16

CMP (INR) 1,640 1,562 1,372 1,273 1,158 1,006 923 863 842 895

Rating Legend TP (INR) 1,800 1,761 1,500 1,392 1,206 1,044 990 924 924 990

Recommendation ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE HOLD ACCUMULATE HOLD HOLD ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE ACCUMULATE

Our Rating

Upside

Buy

More than 15%

Accumulate

5% – 15%

Hold

0 – 5%

Reduce

-5% – 0

Sell

Less than – 5%

ANALYST CERTIFICATION: We, Dhavan Shah [B.Com, MS(Finance)], research analyst and Kunal Jagda (B.com, MBA), research associate, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & Conditions and other disclosures: KRChoksey Shares and Securities Pvt. Ltd (hereinafter referred to as KRCSSPL) is a registered member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and MCX Stock Exchange Limited. KRCSSPL is a registered Research Entity vides SEBI Registration No. INH000001295 under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. 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