February 7, 2017 Lodging (HLT, MAR) - MKM Partners derivative trading desk this morning is recommending buying April calls in these two lodging companies ahead of earnings on February 15: https://goo.gl/C4byi1 November 8, 2016 Marriott (MAR) - Down -3% in pre-market. Shouldn't be surprising considering our discussion about slowing RevPar growth hitting nearly all hotel stocks nationwide specially in Texas market. The only bright spot with better RevPar growth has been Las Vegas Strip. Highlights: - Q3 EPS $0.91 vs. $0.89 estimate, beat - Q3 Revenues $3.94B vs. $4.15B estimate, miss - Q3 Operating Profit $542M vs. $573M estimate, miss - Q3 RevPar flat 0.0% vs. +2.5% estimate, miss - Q3 Average Daily Rate down -1.6% vs. +0.3% estimate, miss - Q4 EPS Guidance $0.83 vs. $0.88 estimate, miss The biggest drag was international market where RevPar growth was down -3.2% and ADR was down 5.5%. Significant deterioration. November 1, 2016 Marriott (MAR) - Reports earnings on November 7. The good thing is Marriott / Starwood merger is now approved and moving forward with billions of synergies to be realized over time. A long term very bullish constructive view. However, I am cautious going into earnings in short term and think this could sell off. RevPar growth nationwide has decelerated from upper +3% to around +1.5% depending on which company's data and analyst outlook you it. Specifically in Houston market and other oil patches of the country. I think it is bigger risk to smaller operators such as LaQuinta (LQ), Hersha Hospitality (HT), Pebblebrook Hotel (PEB) than bigger rivals like Marriott. But speaks for broader weakness. All those charts were covered in webinar two weeks and all of them continue to roll over. Staying on sidelines until earnings are out of the way. September 20, 2016 Marriott (MAR) - Finally the good news here. Marriott and Starwood Hotels announced their merger transaction has received approval from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). This is the 3rd and final approval that they were waiting for. Now they have worldwide clearance and can move forward with merger closure. September 14, 2016 Marriott (MAR) - Another macro slowing trend emerging. Latest channel checks out today show deceleration in RevPar growth in past 3 weeks. Q3 RevPar is now tracking +2.9% YoY vs. +3.5% in Q2, though it is still within company outlook of +2% to +4%.
Small deceleration so its likely still okay but any further weakness and I expect forward earnings estimate cuts in hotel industry and bodes negatively for Q3 earnings releases.
August 19, 2016 Marriott (MAR) - Roll October 70 calls to October 75 strike. More upside ahead and momentum indicators RSI and MACD not overbought yet. Ultimately, the driver of stock outperformance is RevPar growth and Q2 earnings season showed us an acceleration from Q1 (if you remove the negative impact from forex). See chart below. Now with some stability in currency markets, logic says the chart below should show further improvement in Q3.
July 14, 2016 Marriott (MAR) - If you look under my notes in Activity Tracker, recall I showed a note from Nomura discussing strong channel checks. Today, BAML is also making that case. Earnings on July 27. "RevPAR improved sequentially for the first time in 8 quarters as we estimate 2Q RevPAR growth of +3.4% was up from 1Q’s +2.7%. Luxury/Upper Upscale RevPAR was up +2.7%." http://goo.gl/l8Oplv
June 14, 2016 Marriott (MAR) - European Union set to clear unconditionally Marriott, Starwood merger deal - Reuters http://goo.gl/HTlKVN June 3, 2016 Gaming & Lodging (MAR, WYNN, LVS, Others) - Yesterday we saw call buying in MAR and day before that we saw call buying in WYNN and LVS despite slightly weak revenue figures from Macau. Here is a note from Nomura today shedding light on how Q2 is shaping up after channel checks, the kind of fundamental research that I hunt for. See pic below.
June 2, 2016 Marriott (MAR) - Big buyer of 5,000 July 70 calls here for $0.70 offer side on bid/ask spread of 0.55