NEW
HOUSING PIPELINE
Q4 2016 REPORT Published April 2017
Analysis of market conditions and prospects prepared by Glenigan.
Housing Pipeline report – Q4 2016 Report
April 2017
NEW HOUSING PIPELINE Residential planning approvals increased during the fourth quarter of 2016. The number of units approved during the quarter was 9% up on the third quarter of 2016 and 5% higher than during the same period last year. The year on year rise was driven by an 8% increase in the number of private housing units approved and a 15% rise in social housing units approved. Overall Glenigan recorded the approval of around 90,200 residential units during the fourth quarter of 2016: The highest quarterly total since 2008 Q1. Housing schemes of ten or more units accounted for 79,800 or 88% of approved units; the remainder being on smaller new build projects including self-build schemes, homes included within non-residential projects and the conversion of non-residential properties. Chart 1: Residential planning approvals (Great Britain) Units
100,000
7,000
Projects
90,000
6,000
80,000
Number of units
60,000
4,000
50,000 3,000
40,000 30,000
Number of Projects
5,000
70,000
2,000
20,000 1,000
10,000
Q3 2016
Q1 2016
Q3 2015
Q1 2015
Q3 2014
Q1 2014
Q3 2013
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q1 2012
Q3 2011
Q1 2011
Q3 2010
Q1 2010
Q3 2009
Q1 2009
Q3 2008
Q1 2008
Q3 2007
Q1 2007
Q3 2006
0 Q1 2006
0
N.B. Includes residential projects of all sizes, residential units on non-residential schemes and conversions. Source: Glenigan
At 2,844, the number of private sector housing projects (schemes of 3 or more units) securing approval during the second quarter was 2% down on the July to September 2016 and only half a percent higher than during the corresponding period a year ago. The number of units granted planning permission on private sector projects has grown more rapidly against a year ago. Over 79,500 private units were granted permission during the fourth quarter, a 15% rise on the preceding quarter and 8% higher than a year ago. The number of social housing projects (of three or more units) rose sharply during the fourth quarter, being 42% up on the preceding three months and 10% higher than a year ago. In contrast the number of social housing units approved decreased slightly from the high of the previous three months. At 8,564, the number of social housing units approved during 2016 Q4 was 8% lower than during the previous quarter, although unit approvals remained 15% up on a year earlier.
Housing Pipeline report – Q4 2016 Report
April 2017
Chart 2: Residential planning approvals by region (No. of units) 50%
40%
Change on a year earlier
30%
20%
10%
0% North East North West Yorkshire & East the Midlands Humber
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East South West England
Wales
Scotland
Great Britain
-10%
N.B. Includes residential projects of all sizes, residential units on non-residential schemes and conversions. Source: Glenigan
-20%
Most parts of the country have seen a firm rise in units approved compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. North East, East of England, Yorkshire & the Humber and the South West recorded the sharpest rises, being 70%, 60%, 48% and 37% up on a year ago respectively. However unit approvals were lower in the East Midlands, West Midlands, London and Scotland, with year on year declines of 49%, 33%, 23% and 6% respectively. Overall unit approvals in Great Britain during 2016 as a whole were 12% up on a year earlier. The North of England was the strongest area of growth during the year, with approvals 24% higher than during 2015. Table 1: Number of residential units approved North of England
Midlands
Southern England
England - All
Wales
Scotland
Great Britain
2011
40,188
29,283
106,738
176,209
9,235
16,701
202,145
2012
48,947
26,369
119,984
195,300
6,457
15,349
217,106
2013
53,500
41,117
122,871
217,488
7,821
15,852
241,161
2014
58,241
42,120
138,949
239,310
9,690
17,812
266,812
2015
66,842
48,792
145,144
260,778
8,270
19,300
288,348
2016
83,034
44,464
165,629
293,127
9,020
20,914
323,061
37%
-20%
-2%
Change on a year earlier 2011
-6%
-1%
0%
-2%
2012
22%
-10%
12%
11%
-30%
-8%
7%
2013
9%
56%
2%
11%
21%
3%
11%
2014
9%
2%
13%
10%
24%
12%
11%
2015
15%
16%
4%
9%
-15%
8%
8%
2016
24%
-9%
14%
12%
9%
8%
12%
N.B. Residential projects of all sizes and residential units on non-residential projects and conversions. Whilst the number of units approved in Wales rose 9%, recovering from the faltering in approvals during the previous year, approvals in the Midlands slipped back after three consecutive years of growth.
Housing Pipeline report – Q4 2016 Report
April 2017
NOTES This report is based upon an analysis of housing projects being tracked by Glenigan and held on its database of construction projects. We have now extended the range of projects covered by this report to in order to provide a more complete assessment of the residential development pipeline. The following restrictions and filters apply to the analysis: 1. New build projects of all sizes are covered by the report (Coverage was previously restricted to approvals for 10 or more units.) 2. Housing schemes are included where the development is primarily identified as being: Apartments/ flats, Bungalows, Houses/ Luxury Housing or Sheltered Housing, Key Worker Accommodation or Sheltered Housing. 3. Conversions of non-residential properties for housing are included. 4. Private and social housing data includes schemes of 3 or more units. 5. Total residential approvals include 1 & 2 unit schemes together with residential units on mixed used developments 6. Elderly people’s homes, Hostels and student accommodation have been excluded from the analysis. 7. Approvals are recorded at the detailed planning stage. Where a project has secured outline planning approval and the detailed consent is being resolved through the approval of reserve matters the date of ‘detailed consent’ is deemed to be that of the approval of reserve matters. In the case of some projects, the reserve matters are approved piecemeal; in these circumstances the earliest approval date has been used in order to avoid double counting.
Housing Pipeline report – Q4 2016 Report April 2017
HOUSING APPROVALS The tables provide a regional breakdown of new building planning approvals since 2009 Table 2: Number of housing units securing detailed planning approval by region & country
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
North of England Yorkshire & North East North West the Humber 1,523 4,354 3,015 1,622 3,329 1,978 1,300 3,217 4,409 2,393 3,062 4,442 2,798 5,937 5,734 1,927 4,589 3,496 1,057 4,622 2,898 984 5,556 3,098 1,181 5,369 4,051 2,605 3,448 3,748 1,060 5,645 2,961 1,538 4,637 3,945 2,381 4,881 5,227 1,780 4,081 2,977 2,703 7,080 3,270 2,338 7,092 5,137 3,037 5,884 5,377 2,198 6,781 5,389 2,297 6,721 3,414 2,437 6,361 3,604 3,107 7,899 3,903 1,080 6,329 4,340 2,124 7,215 4,382 3,851 9,479 4,532 1,943 7,593 6,390 2,944 6,353 5,630 2,511 10,459 4,556 2,751 10,651 5,061 1,842 11,298 3,953 5,763 9,056 4,575 2,356 14,202 6,168 4,665 11,670 7,486
*Moving Annual Total for England
Midlands
Southern England
East Midlands
West Midlands East of England
London
South East
South West
England
Wales
Scotland
Great Britain
*MAT England
2,991 2,943 2,688 2,936 3,031 3,502 4,326 3,531 3,257 3,256 2,533 4,710 3,223 2,968 1,883 3,212 5,155 6,304 3,942 6,452 6,305 4,266 4,761 5,582 4,537 4,404 4,598 8,808 7,244 3,781 4,918 4,483
2,859 1,523 2,144 6,500 4,546 3,905 2,927 3,845 4,359 2,867 3,479 4,822 4,674 2,967 2,805 4,637 4,672 4,693 5,413 4,486 4,674 4,173 6,435 5,924 4,522 5,787 6,372 9,764 5,570 7,608 4,363 6,497
11,622 7,612 13,173 7,246 13,725 6,984 10,547 8,213 10,631 5,956 8,745 8,083 24,652 4,660 8,667 11,676 10,818 8,921 10,479 14,919 10,941 15,633 9,937 15,530 15,966 8,406 13,001 15,948 12,552 11,058 17,971 12,343
6,782 5,633 6,059 7,664 5,424 6,929 6,656 9,716 7,731 5,525 8,367 10,243 6,888 7,212 7,849 10,511 5,197 8,275 7,574 9,122 13,445 10,423 9,083 9,976 8,273 8,744 8,213 12,796 11,210 9,423 11,189 17,000
5,266 3,612 5,696 5,916 5,365 4,829 5,930 3,892 5,097 7,744 5,650 4,614 5,696 5,036 5,534 5,525 5,916 6,692 5,229 7,181 6,119 7,432 4,649 6,229 7,191 5,996 6,654 5,386 7,690 9,264 6,947 7,401
42,455 31,985 42,720 45,044 50,521 41,558 43,668 43,170 47,005 38,629 44,282 46,293 61,559 35,042 43,350 55,349 51,454 53,689 51,299 61,046 61,096 58,679 53,183 66,352 63,672 53,860 65,883 77,363 67,148 68,258 76,242 81,479
1,653 1,090 1,921 1,608 1,791 1,472 1,730 1,756 3,715 1,898 1,613 2,009 1,769 1,747 1,225 1,716 2,540 1,698 1,722 1,861 3,000 2,053 2,517 2,120 1,722 2,590 1,448 2,510 2,275 1,599 1,911 3,235
4,915 3,682 4,039 8,744 5,866 6,253 4,952 3,821 4,183 4,159 4,571 3,788 4,241 3,055 2,606 5,447 3,791 4,115 3,808 4,138 5,212 4,429 3,746 4,425 5,041 3,363 5,065 5,831 5,682 5,371 4,404 5,457
49,023 36,757 48,680 55,396 58,178 49,283 50,350 48,747 54,903 44,686 50,466 52,090 67,569 39,844 47,181 62,512 57,785 59,502 56,829 67,045 69,308 65,161 59,446 72,897 70,435 59,813 72,396 85,704 75,105 75,228 82,557 90,171
180,338 158,740 160,469 162,204 170,270 179,843 180,791 178,917 175,401 172,472 173,086 176,209 190,763 187,176 186,244 195,300 185,195 203,842 211,791 217,488 227,130 232,120 234,004 239,310 241,886 237,067 249,767 260,778 264,254 278,652 289,011 293,127
4,043 3,733 4,034 4,885 3,961 5,397 4,705 4,335 5,329 3,480 5,842 3,701 3,937 3,361 3,559 5,221 5,398 4,436 6,230 6,484 4,703 5,003 4,597 5,249 7,257 5,596 9,519 6,198 5,789 7,730 8,128 9,934
Housing Pipeline report – Q4 2016 Report April 2017
Table 3: Number of housing projects securing detailed planning approval by region & country Midlands
Southern England
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009
North of England Yorkshire & North East North West the Humber 165 422 592 184 468 473 132 409 455 107 361 417 95 308 291
Q2 2009
86
267
271
271
240
431
424
691
541
3,222
192
349
3,763
15,596
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
94 87 108 100 103 111 72 93 129 101 101 172 134 116 155 130 123 152 132 101 94 116 145 128 117 128 133 119 130 114
272 272 326 300 365 370 352 355 359 367 410 378 418 434 462 489 501 486 424 447 362 395 422 444 451 502 437 388 432 379
334 308 332 299 390 359 345 334 358 383 358 337 382 363 361 364 364 418 368 363 299 308 431 355 350 365 334 314 299 329
251 240 349 344 366 344 308 281 305 341 341 338 337 371 366 390 422 443 376 374 317 358 403 386 407 430 384 353 349 286
268 249 256 282 284 322 325 311 378 397 349 341 387 429 420 431 428 451 390 350 358 371 421 396 379 495 413 430 372 373
493 501 493 518 543 529 550 521 594 556 563 622 676 669 644 719 743 785 627 661 584 605 783 713 697 695 703 674 694 645
513 459 523 512 603 585 588 545 645 626 846 478 590 683 625 642 706 692 640 585 479 529 693 653 638 688 635 550 574 595
753 693 732 842 842 883 866 849 951 975 927 959 974 1,059 957 967 1,097 1,090 910 928 790 830 1,051 1,032 975 1,019 1,047 890 906 917
507 525 473 487 510 494 524 555 642 654 655 607 678 750 646 617 689 751 656 681 463 548 798 705 664 655 614 570 570 541
3,485 3,334 3,592 3,684 4,006 3,997 3,930 3,844 4,361 4,400 4,550 4,232 4,576 4,874 4,636 4,749 5,073 5,268 4,523 4,490 3,746 4,060 5,147 4,812 4,678 4,977 4,700 4,288 4,326 4,179
204 182 190 199 211 208 224 242 225 236 236 195 232 242 230 218 256 278 218 228 180 196 234 220 224 251 224 193 192 186
382 355 404 401 405 377 352 319 412 333 371 356 349 375 353 318 373 352 353 336 305 341 340 344 351 365 340 278 293 315
4,071 3,871 4,186 4,284 4,622 4,582 4,506 4,405 4,998 4,969 5,157 4,783 5,157 5,491 5,219 5,285 5,702 5,898 5,094 5,054 4,231 4,597 5,721 5,376 5,253 5,593 5,264 4,759 4,811 4,680
14,249 13,388 13,633 14,095 14,616 15,279 15,617 15,777 16,132 16,535 17,155 17,543 17,758 18,232 18,318 18,835 19,332 19,726 19,613 19,354 18,027 16,819 17,443 17,765 18,697 19,614 19,167 18,643 18,291 17,493
*Moving Annual Total for England
East Midlands
West Midlands East of England
London
South East
South West
England
Wales
Scotland
Great Britain
*MAT England
439 427 371 345 295
414 374 364 308 234
791 758 650 592 467
800 735 667 595 480
1,071 1,125 1,023 831 594
859 846 761 639 583
5,553 5,390 4,832 4,195 3,347
346 347 299 234 226
537 525 442 406 380
6,436 6,262 5,573 4,835 3,953
22,255 22,267 21,494 19,970 17,764
Housing Pipeline report – Q4 2016 Report April 2017
Table 4: England – No. of housing UNITS by project size
Table 5: England – No. of housing PROJECTS by project size
10 or more
3-9 units
1 & 2 Units
Misc*
Total
10 or more
3-9 units
1 & 2 Units
Misc*
Total
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
35,685 25,401 35,578 38,378 43,246 33,895 35,545 33,641 39,085 30,607 35,878 37,445 51,923 26,623 34,307 45,432 42,170 44,416 41,060 50,558 51,700 49,522 44,781 57,234 52,454 43,301
4,720 4,450 4,841 4,577 5,097 5,394 5,683 5,535 5,421 5,236 5,191 5,489 6,439 5,080 5,721 6,274 6,426 6,230 7,005 7,320 6,822 6,427 6,586 7,035 7,827 7,589
1,866 1,938 2,035 1,916 2,039 2,164 2,389 2,435 2,413 2,558 3,094 3,103 2,869 3,136 3,244 3,371 2,758 2,918 3,050 3,092 2,498 2,670 1,772 1,946 2,809 2,617
184 196 266 173 139 105 51 1,559 86 228 119 256 328 203 78 272 100 125 184 77 76 62 44 137 582 353
42,455 31,985 42,720 45,044 50,521 41,558 43,668 43,170 47,005 38,629 44,282 46,293 61,559 35,042 43,350 55,349 51,454 53,689 51,299 61,047 61,096 58,681 53,183 66,352 63,672 53,860
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015
635 510 606 674 765 643 669 698 736 565 590 597 778 500 551 695 827 772 789 857 745 697 697 830 837 683
1,040 971 1,044 972 1,060 1,116 1,186 1,163 1,144 1,083 1,132 1,174 1,310 1,068 1,201 1,318 1,354 1,356 1,564 1,592 1,513 1,445 1,502 1,601 1,833 1,800
1,658 1,726 1,816 1,682 1,756 1,904 2,131 2,120 2,035 2,184 2,624 2,614 2,442 2,648 2,802 2,840 2,438 2,598 2,696 2,804 2,243 2,332 1,519 1,609 2,456 2,309
14 15 19 6 11 21 20 16 15 12 15 15 20 16 22 21 17 23 24 16 22 18 28 20 21 20
3,347 3,222 3,485 3,334 3,592 3,684 4,006 3,997 3,930 3,844 4,361 4,400 4,550 4,232 4,576 4,874 4,636 4,749 5,073 5,269 4,523 4,492 3,746 4,060 5,147 4,812
Q3 2015
55,796
7,416
2,489
182
Q4 2015
65,400
7,585
2,549
1,829
65,883
Q3 2015
704
1,766
2,184
24
4,678
77,363
Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
847 799 766 860 925
1,849 1,750 1,725 1,902 1,816
2,247 2,134 1,773 1,548 1,404
34 17 24 16 34
Q1 2016
56,713
7,227
2,412
796
67,148
4,977 4,700 4,288 4,326 4,179
Q2 2016
57,320
7,240
2,119
1,579
68,258
Q3 2016
64,518
7,931
1,827
1,966
76,242
Q4 2016
71,989
7,588
1,682
220
81,479
*These are housing units or projects that are not primarily for housing but do supply secondary housing space e.g on commercial developments.
*These are housing units or projects that are not primarily for housing but do supply secondary housing space e.g on commercial developments.
Housing Pipeline report – Q4 2016 Report
April 2017
ABOUT HBF The Home Builders Federation (HBF) is the representative body of the home building industry in England and Wales. HBF’s members’ accounts for 80% of all new homes built in England and Wales in any one year, and include companies of all sizes, ranging from multi-national, household names through regionally based businesses to small local companies. CONTACT Home Builders Federation Ltd HBF House 27 Broadwall London SE1 9PL Tel: 020 7960 1600 Email:
[email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk ABOUT GLENIGAN Glenigan is the trusted provider of project information, analysis and sales leads for the construction industry. Its comprehensive company intelligence has been helping contractors, sub-contractors and suppliers build new working relationships for more than 40 years. With exclusive content from leading industry bodies including The Builders’ Conference, Glenigan offers the widest coverage of UK tenders and construction contracts. These construction project leads are unique to Glenigan and unavailable anywhere else. The housing approvals data analysed in this report is drawn from Glenigan’s extensive database of current and planned construction projects. Glenigan’s detailed coverage of planned housing projects across the UK offers valuable strategic and tactical insights into developers’ active sights and pipeline, with sites tracked through to completion. CONTACT Glenigan 5th Floor, 80 Holdenhurst Road Bournemouth BH8 8AQ Tel: 0800 373 771 Email:
[email protected] Website: www.glenigan.com
NEW
HOUSING PIPELINE
Analysis of market conditions and prospects prepared by Glenigan.
