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Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2014
Presented To
Illinois Association of Realtors From R
E
A
L
Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois
April 22, 2014
Contact:
Geoffrey Hewings 217-333-4740 (
[email protected]) Xian Fang 217-244-7226 (
[email protected])
Housing Forecast
April 2014
2
Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2014 The Housing Market In March, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the third consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but retained robust gains in median housing prices. 9,929 houses were sold in Illinois, 11.6% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 7,177 houses were sold, 11.1% less than last March. The median price was $147,900 in Illinois, up 10.0% from March last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $175,000, up 12.9% from this time last year. The sales forecast for April, May and June 2014 finally suggests a rebound of sales after the three months of negative annual growth in the first quarter. While the forecasts suggest a moderation in the negative annual growth rates, the month-to-month growth will be positive. On an annual basis, the three-month average forecasts point to a trivial decrease between 0.5% and 0.7% for Illinois and 1.0% to 1.3% for the Chicago PMSA. On a monthly basis, the threemonth average sales are forecast to increase by 57.3%-77.5% for Illinois and 57.9%-78.4% for the Chicago PMSA. Median price forecasts, on the other hand, indicate slower annual increases for April, May and June compared to the first quarter. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 7.2% in April, 6.7% in May and 4.4% in June. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.1% in April, 6.5% in May and 2.4% in June. As a comparison to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI1 forecast indicates a slightly lower annual growth rates. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 4.6% in April, 5.4% in May and 2.3% in June. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 6.5% in April, 7.4% in May and 3.9% in June. While the differences between median index and the REAL index for Illinois are smaller than for the Chicago PMSA, it probably signals less structural change in the Illinois housing market than in the Chicago PMSA. Months of supply of housing units are decreasing in general, but with more heterogeneous patterns when examined by price ranges. Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.6 months (down from 6.0 months a year ago) and the Chicago PMSA had 3.3 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). The overall inventory declines comprised both increases and decreases for homes at different price ranges. Homes priced below $200K experienced declines in the inventory, dominated by a decrease in listings. Meanwhile, homes priced above $200K had an increase in the inventory, dominated by a decrease in pending sales. In terms of future housing supply, more building permits were given to multifamily rather than single-family units compared to last year. According to housing permits data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), until February, Illinois had generated 5.4% more multifamily building permits and 6% less single-family building permits compared to the same
1
REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details.
Housing Forecast
April 2014
3
period of time in 2013. The comparative figures for Chicago area are 122% and 1% more for multifamily and single-family units respectively. Housing ownership and affordability continues to receive attention. On April 1, the state of Illinois initiated the Welcome Home Illinois program to stimulate the home ownership rate. The program aims to assist first-time homebuyers in purchasing their home with a $7,500 down payment assistance and an interest rate of 3.75% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. Around 3,000 households are estimated to have been assisted. Correspondingly on the rental market, a $26 million program to provide affordable rentals in Chicago was also announced in April. The city, together with 11 lending institutes and a few non-profits created a loan pool for easier financing for developers willing to redevelop vacant 1-4 units buildings. Although the coverage of these programs is limited, efforts directed to affordable housing are likely to become more critical given the expectation of continuing rising house prices in the coming months. While the foreclosure process is still long in Illinois, the time for foreclosure inventory to return to pre-bubble levels is one month less than the projection made last month. According to RealtyTrac’s quarterly report, Illinois was still on the top list of states with the longest days to foreclosure— an average of 830 days, ranking 5th in the nation. In contrast, the average number days to complete the foreclosure process nationwide was 572 days in the first quarter. As of March 2014, there are 32,119 homes are at some stage of foreclosure in Illinoi—this comprises the foreclosure inventory. REAL’s analysis projects that the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels2 by February 2015 if the declines in the average rates were of the past 6 months (-8.3%) were sustained. In April, Builder Confidence released by NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up to 47 from 46 in March, but still indicates builders’ continuing pessimism on the market conditions when the reading is below 50. Builders’ concerns were mainly the stringent lending for home-buyers, the difficulty of hiring workers and acquiring land according to NAHB. As for consumer confidence, two consumer confidence indices again in March pointed in opposite directions as they have for the all months in 2014. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 82.3 (1985=100) from 78.3 last month. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged down to 80.0 from 81.6. While the former index indicated consumers’ positive sentiment about future job prospects and overall economy growth (but with concerns about income growth), the later index characterized the opposite sentiment—more confidence in personal financial situations but more concerns on the overall economy. The Housing Market – Current Condition In March, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the third consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but retained robust gains in median housing prices. 9,929 houses were sold in Illinois, 11.6% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 7,177 houses were sold, 11.1% less than last March. The median price was $147,900 in Illinois, up 10.0% from March last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $175,000, up 12.9% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago
2
Average foreclosure inventory from 1997-2005
Housing Forecast
April 2014
4
PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for April 2014 report table) In March, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.6 months3 (down from 6.0 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 3.3 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). The overall declines hid considerable variations, with increases and decreases for homes at different price ranges. Homes priced below $200K experienced declines in the inventory, dominated by the decrease in listings. Meanwhile, homes priced above $200K had an increase in the inventory, dominated by the decrease in pending sales. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months’ Supply by Price Range figures) In March, homes priced below $200K held a smaller market share compared to a year ago, while homes at all other higher price ranges received increases in market shares. For Illinois, homes priced below $200K held a market share that decreased to 64.1% from 68.0% a year ago. The comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was 55.3%, a large decrease from 62.4% recorded in March 2013. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) In terms of house characteristics, the percentage of homes sold with one and two bedrooms was around 2.4% more compared to last year; the comparative figure for homes with one or two bathrooms indicated an increase of 1%. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification figures)
The Housing Market – Forecast and Future Condition The median price forecast indicates slower annual increases in median prices for April, May and June compared to the first quarter. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 7.2% in April, 6.7% in May and 4.4% in June. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.1% in April, 6.5% in May and 2.4% in June. (Reference: Forecast for April 2014 report table) As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI4 forecast indicates a slightly lower annual growth rates. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 4.6% in April, 5.4% in May and 2.3% in June. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 6.5% in April, 7.4% in May and 3.9% in June. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable “baskets” of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index) The sales forecast for April, May and June 2014 suggests a slight negative growth trend on a yearly basis and a strong positive three-month average growth. Annually, the threemonth average forecasts point to a trivial decrease of between 0.5% and 0.7% for Illinois; for the Chicago PMSA, the decrease will range from 1.0% to 1.3%. On a three-month average basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase by 57.3%-77.5% for Illinois and 57.9%-78.4% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for April 2014 report table)
3
Months’ supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months. 4 REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details.
Housing Forecast
April 2014
5
The pending home sales index5 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This March, homes put under contract increased largely on a monthly basis but still decreased slightly on a yearly basis. The pending home sales index is 154.6 (2008=100) in Illinois, up 30.3% from last month and down 4.1% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 187.2, up 32.3% from last month and down 1.0% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure) In March 2014, 2,485 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 35.0% and up 7.7% respectively from a year and a month ago) and 3,984 foreclosures were completed6 (up 17.0% and 14.7% respectively from a year ago and a month ago). As of March 2014, there are 32,119 homes are at some stage of foreclosures— the foreclosure inventory. The average inventory change rates were -8.3% in the past 6 months, -6.8% in the last 12 months and -3.8% in the last 24 months. Given these rates of change, the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels7 by February 2015, April 2015 and March 2016 respectively. (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Activity and Inventory figures).
The Economy
In March 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate stayed at 6.7% as last month. The number of nonfarm payroll jobs experienced a gain of 192,000 that is higher than the average job grow of 183,000 in the last 12 months. Among all industries, professional and business services (+57,000) added most jobs. Construction contributed 19,000 job gains, among which residential building construction added 3,100 jobs while residential specialty trade contractors added 6,000 jobs. In February 2014, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, the Illinois unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.7% while 6,400 non-farm payroll jobs were added. Through January 2013, Illinois has added 257,400 new private sector jobs since March 2010 when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession. In February 2014, the one-year-ahead forecast for Illinois indicates that the non-farm employment will grow at a positive rate between 0.17% and 0.77%, corresponding to job gains between 9,900 and 44,700. Four sectors are forecast to show job gains: Professional and business services (3.99%; 36,100), Education and health (1.43%; 12,600), Leisure and hospitality (0.84%; 4,600) and Construction (1.59%; 3,100)
Longer-term Outlook
5
In March, two consumer confidence indices again pointed in opposite directions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 82.3 (1985=100) from 78.3 last month. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged down to 80.0 from 81.6. While the former index indicated consumers’ positive sentiment about future job prospects and the overall economy growth, there were concerns about income
The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year 2008. This is when an auction occurs, no matter what the auction results are. 7 Average foreclosure inventory from 1997-2005 6
Housing Forecast
April 2014
6
growth. The later index revealed the opposite sentiment—more confidence in personal financial situations but more concerns about the overall economy.
In April, builder Confidence released by National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up to 47 from 46 in March. This is the third consecutive month with a score below 50. This index measures builder confidence towards the sales condition on single-family market from three perspectives: current sales, sales expected in next six month and the traffic generated by perspective homebuyers. A reading below 50 indicates that builders rate the sales condition as poor.
The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 100.1 in February from 103.1 in January. The decrease is attributed to a decline in job growth in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors in the Chicago area.
“Although the annual sales rates have declined, the month to month changes continue to be strongly positive,” noted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory of the University of Illinois. “In addition, positive housing price gains, continuing declines in the foreclosure inventory levels and the increasing share of sales of homes priced above $200,000 suggest a housing market that is responding positively to signals from the economy.”
Housing Forecast
April 2014
7
Forecast for April 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual
Monthly
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Jan-14
-5.7%
-7.1%
-29.0%
-28.6%
Feb-14
-5.0%
-6.9%
-2.3%
-4.3%
Mar-14
-11.6%
-11.1%
24.6%
27.0%
3 Month Avg.
-7.8%
-8.6%
-26.3%
-26.5%
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Illinois
Monthly
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Apr-14
-2.3%
-3.1%
-2.8%
-3.9%
22.0%
29.8%
21.6%
29.2%
May-14
-1.6%
-2.1%
-1.3%
-1.8%
17.7%
23.9%
18.9%
25.6%
Jun-14
2.0%
2.7%
0.9%
1.3%
5.1%
6.9%
3.9%
5.2%
-0.5%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-1.3%
57.3%
77.5%
57.9%
78.4%
3 Month Avg.
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Jan-14
$135,900
$163,000
Jan-13
$125,000
$140,000
Feb-14
$132,500
$156,000
Feb-13
$124,000
$140,000
Mar-14
$147,900
$175,000
Mar-13
$134,500
$155,000
Apr-14
$155,461
$183,528
Apr-13
$145,000
$172,950
May-14
$165,335
$194,844
May-13
$155,000
$183,000
Jun-14
$177,549
$209,829
Jun-13
$170,000
$205,000
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Jan-14
8.7%
16.4%
Jan-13
1.6%
0.0%
Feb-14
6.9%
11.4%
Feb-13
5.1%
3.7%
Mar-14
10.0%
12.9%
Mar-13
3.5%
2.1%
Apr-14
7.2%
6.1%
Apr-13
7.2%
8.1%
May-14
6.7%
6.5%
May-13
6.9%
7.6%
Jun-14
4.4%
2.4%
Jun-13
9.7%
13.0%
Housing Forecast
April 2014
8
Forecast for March 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual
Monthly
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Dec-13
9.7%
10.0%
5.0%
6.4%
Jan-14
-6.0%
-7.4%
-29.1%
-28.8%
Feb-14
-6.2%
-8.2%
-3.2%
-5.3%
-0.1%
-1.1%
-26.4%
-26.8%
3 Month Avg.
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Illinois
Monthly
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Mar-14
-9.3%
-12.5%
-9.2%
-12.4%
23.0%
31.2%
24.8%
33.5%
Apr-14
-8.3%
-11.2%
-10.2%
-13.7%
13.5%
18.3%
11.8%
16.0%
May-14
-13.2%
-17.8%
-13.2%
-17.8%
10.3%
14.0%
12.8%
17.4%
3 Month Avg.
-10.5%
-14.2%
-11.1%
-15.0%
22.0%
29.8%
22.0%
29.8%
SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Dec-13
$148,500
$176,000
Dec-12
$131,000
$150,000
Jan-14
$135,850
$163,000
Jan-13
$125,000
$140,000
Feb-14
$132,500
$156,000
Feb-13
$124,000
$140,000
Mar-14
$143,939
$174,259
Mar-13
$134,750
$155,000
Apr-14
$151,433
$183,211
Apr-13
$145,000
$172,950
May-14
$161,295
$194,171
May-13
$155,000
$183,000
ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Illinois
Chicago PMSA
Dec-13
13.4%
17.3%
Dec-12
4.8%
3.4%
Jan-14
8.7%
16.4%
Jan-13
1.6%
0.0%
Feb-14
6.9%
11.4%
Feb-13
5.1%
3.7%
Mar-14
6.8%
12.4%
Mar-13
3.7%
2.1%
Apr-14
4.4%
5.9%
Apr-13
7.2%
8.1%
May-14
4.1%
6.1%
May-13
6.9%
7.6%
Housing Forecast
April 2014
9
Illinois Median Home Sales Price
2012
$190,000
2013 $177,549
$180,000
Forecast
$170,000
Median Sales Price
2014
$165,335 $165,000 $155,461
$160,000
$148,500 $150,000
$147,900
$140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Illinois Total Home Sales
2012
18,000
2013
16,000 16,000
2014
15,100
Forecast
14,000 12,500 12,000 9,929
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
April 2014
10
Chicago PMSA Median Home Sales Price $220,000
2012
$209,829
2013
$210,000
Median Sales Price
2014
$194,844
$200,000
Forecast
$183,528
$190,000 $180,000
$175,000
$170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales 2014
14,000
2012 12,000
11,000
11,500
2013 Forecast
Axis Title
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,177
6,000 4,000 2,000 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14
Housing Forecast April 2014
IL_Median
Chicago PMSA_Median
11
Illinois Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1)
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
IL_REAL
Chicago PMSA Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1)
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Chicago PMSA_REAL
20 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14
Housing Forecast April 2014
IL Pending Index
12
Pending Home Sales Index (2008=100)
260
220
180
140
100
60
Chicago Pending Index
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
April 2014
13
Illnois Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 4.6
Overall
6.0 8.1
700K~UP
9.4 5.2
Price by Ranges
500K~700K
6.3 4.8
300K~500K
5.5 4.6
200K~300K
5.7 4.3
100K~200K
2014 Mar
5.8
2014 Feb
4.4
0 ~100K -1.0
2013 Mar
6.1 1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 3.3 Overall
4.6 6.1
700K~UP
7.4 3.9
Price by Ranges
500K~700K
4.7 3.6
300K~500K
4.2 3.4
200K~300K
4.5 2.9
2014 Mar
100K~200K
4.5
2014 Feb
2.7
0 ~100K
2013 Mar
4.6 0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
April 2014
14
Illinois Price Stratification 40% 36.3% 35%
2014 Mar
33.0% 31.1% 31.7%
2014 Feb
Share of Total Sales
30%
2013 Mar
25% 20% 16.3%
14.9% 12.9%
15%
11.4%
10% 3.8%
5%
3.0% 2.9%
2.7%
0% 0 ~100K
100K~200K
200K~300K
300K~500K
500K~700K
700K~UP
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA Price Stratification 40% 2014 Mar
35% 30.4%
30.4% 31.0%
2014 Feb
30%
Share of Total Sales
24.9%
2013 Mar
25% 19.0% 20%
16.4%
16.6% 14.5%
15% 10% 5.0% 4.0%
5%
4.0%
3.7%
0% 0 ~100K
100K~200K
200K~300K
300K~500K
500K~700K
700K~UP
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
April 2014
15
Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 50% 43.5%
45%
2014 Mar
44.1%
40%
2014 Feb
35%
2013 Mar
30%
27.4%
25.1%
25%
19.8% 21.3%
20% 15% 10%
4.4%
5%
3.8%
4.3%
4.2% 1.1%
1.1%
0% 1 Bedrooms
2 Bedrooms
3 Bedrooms
4 Bedrooms
5 Bedrooms
Other
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 45% 40.0%
40%
40.5%
2014 Mar 2014 Feb
35%
2013 Mar
29.4%
30%
26.9%
25% 20.0%
21.2%
20% 15% 10%
5.5%
5.6%
3.8%
5%
4.4% 1.2%
1.3%
0% 1 Bedrooms
2 Bedrooms
3 Bedrooms
4 Bedrooms
5 Bedrooms
Other
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
April 2014
16
Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 50%
44.9%
45%
2014 Mar
44.0%
2014 Feb
40% 35%
31.8%
31.4%
2013 Mar
30% 25% 20% 15% 9.7%
10%
11.7%
10.3%
5%
2.0%
12.2%
2.1%
0% 1 Bathrooms
2 Bathrooms
3 Bathrooms
4 Bathrooms
Other
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 60% 52.3%
2014 Mar
51.2%
2014 Feb
50%
2013 Mar 40% 33.3%
33.9%
30% 20% 11.2%
11.4%
10% 2.4%
2.6%
0.8%
0.9%
0% 1 Bathrooms
2 Bathrooms
3 Bathrooms
4 Bathrooms
Other
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Housing Forecast
April 2014
17
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Housing Forecast April 2014 18
Sales Ratio of Foreclosed Properties Chicago PMSA-3 Month Average
35%
30%
25% 24.8%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Housing Forecast
April 2014
19
Share of Bedrooms by Sale price Range
Illinois Bedroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification 60% 1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom
4 Bedroom
5 Bedroom
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 0 ~100K
100K~200K
200K~300K
300K~500K
500K~700K
700K~UP
Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®
Chicago PMSA Bedroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification Share of Bedrooms by Sale Price Range
60% 1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom
4 Bedroom
5 Bedroom
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% 0 ~100K
100K~200K
200K~300K
300K~500K
500K~700K
700K~UP
Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®