Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2014 ... - MrEd

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Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2014

Presented To

Illinois Association of Realtors From R

E

A

L

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois

April 22, 2014

Contact:

Geoffrey Hewings 217-333-4740 ([email protected]) Xian Fang 217-244-7226 ([email protected])

Housing Forecast

April 2014

2

Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, April 2014 The Housing Market In March, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the third consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but retained robust gains in median housing prices. 9,929 houses were sold in Illinois, 11.6% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 7,177 houses were sold, 11.1% less than last March. The median price was $147,900 in Illinois, up 10.0% from March last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $175,000, up 12.9% from this time last year. The sales forecast for April, May and June 2014 finally suggests a rebound of sales after the three months of negative annual growth in the first quarter. While the forecasts suggest a moderation in the negative annual growth rates, the month-to-month growth will be positive. On an annual basis, the three-month average forecasts point to a trivial decrease between 0.5% and 0.7% for Illinois and 1.0% to 1.3% for the Chicago PMSA. On a monthly basis, the threemonth average sales are forecast to increase by 57.3%-77.5% for Illinois and 57.9%-78.4% for the Chicago PMSA. Median price forecasts, on the other hand, indicate slower annual increases for April, May and June compared to the first quarter. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 7.2% in April, 6.7% in May and 4.4% in June. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.1% in April, 6.5% in May and 2.4% in June. As a comparison to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI1 forecast indicates a slightly lower annual growth rates. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 4.6% in April, 5.4% in May and 2.3% in June. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 6.5% in April, 7.4% in May and 3.9% in June. While the differences between median index and the REAL index for Illinois are smaller than for the Chicago PMSA, it probably signals less structural change in the Illinois housing market than in the Chicago PMSA. Months of supply of housing units are decreasing in general, but with more heterogeneous patterns when examined by price ranges. Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.6 months (down from 6.0 months a year ago) and the Chicago PMSA had 3.3 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). The overall inventory declines comprised both increases and decreases for homes at different price ranges. Homes priced below $200K experienced declines in the inventory, dominated by a decrease in listings. Meanwhile, homes priced above $200K had an increase in the inventory, dominated by a decrease in pending sales. In terms of future housing supply, more building permits were given to multifamily rather than single-family units compared to last year. According to housing permits data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), until February, Illinois had generated 5.4% more multifamily building permits and 6% less single-family building permits compared to the same

1

REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details.

Housing Forecast

April 2014

3

period of time in 2013. The comparative figures for Chicago area are 122% and 1% more for multifamily and single-family units respectively. Housing ownership and affordability continues to receive attention. On April 1, the state of Illinois initiated the Welcome Home Illinois program to stimulate the home ownership rate. The program aims to assist first-time homebuyers in purchasing their home with a $7,500 down payment assistance and an interest rate of 3.75% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. Around 3,000 households are estimated to have been assisted. Correspondingly on the rental market, a $26 million program to provide affordable rentals in Chicago was also announced in April. The city, together with 11 lending institutes and a few non-profits created a loan pool for easier financing for developers willing to redevelop vacant 1-4 units buildings. Although the coverage of these programs is limited, efforts directed to affordable housing are likely to become more critical given the expectation of continuing rising house prices in the coming months. While the foreclosure process is still long in Illinois, the time for foreclosure inventory to return to pre-bubble levels is one month less than the projection made last month. According to RealtyTrac’s quarterly report, Illinois was still on the top list of states with the longest days to foreclosure— an average of 830 days, ranking 5th in the nation. In contrast, the average number days to complete the foreclosure process nationwide was 572 days in the first quarter. As of March 2014, there are 32,119 homes are at some stage of foreclosure in Illinoi—this comprises the foreclosure inventory. REAL’s analysis projects that the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels2 by February 2015 if the declines in the average rates were of the past 6 months (-8.3%) were sustained. In April, Builder Confidence released by NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up to 47 from 46 in March, but still indicates builders’ continuing pessimism on the market conditions when the reading is below 50. Builders’ concerns were mainly the stringent lending for home-buyers, the difficulty of hiring workers and acquiring land according to NAHB. As for consumer confidence, two consumer confidence indices again in March pointed in opposite directions as they have for the all months in 2014. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 82.3 (1985=100) from 78.3 last month. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged down to 80.0 from 81.6. While the former index indicated consumers’ positive sentiment about future job prospects and overall economy growth (but with concerns about income growth), the later index characterized the opposite sentiment—more confidence in personal financial situations but more concerns on the overall economy. The Housing Market – Current Condition  In March, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the third consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but retained robust gains in median housing prices. 9,929 houses were sold in Illinois, 11.6% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 7,177 houses were sold, 11.1% less than last March. The median price was $147,900 in Illinois, up 10.0% from March last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $175,000, up 12.9% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago

2

Average foreclosure inventory from 1997-2005

Housing Forecast







April 2014

4

PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for April 2014 report table) In March, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 4.6 months3 (down from 6.0 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 3.3 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). The overall declines hid considerable variations, with increases and decreases for homes at different price ranges. Homes priced below $200K experienced declines in the inventory, dominated by the decrease in listings. Meanwhile, homes priced above $200K had an increase in the inventory, dominated by the decrease in pending sales. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months’ Supply by Price Range figures) In March, homes priced below $200K held a smaller market share compared to a year ago, while homes at all other higher price ranges received increases in market shares. For Illinois, homes priced below $200K held a market share that decreased to 64.1% from 68.0% a year ago. The comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was 55.3%, a large decrease from 62.4% recorded in March 2013. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) In terms of house characteristics, the percentage of homes sold with one and two bedrooms was around 2.4% more compared to last year; the comparative figure for homes with one or two bathrooms indicated an increase of 1%. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification figures)

The Housing Market – Forecast and Future Condition  The median price forecast indicates slower annual increases in median prices for April, May and June compared to the first quarter. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 7.2% in April, 6.7% in May and 4.4% in June. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 6.1% in April, 6.5% in May and 2.4% in June. (Reference: Forecast for April 2014 report table)  As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI4 forecast indicates a slightly lower annual growth rates. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 4.6% in April, 5.4% in May and 2.3% in June. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 6.5% in April, 7.4% in May and 3.9% in June. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable “baskets” of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index)  The sales forecast for April, May and June 2014 suggests a slight negative growth trend on a yearly basis and a strong positive three-month average growth. Annually, the threemonth average forecasts point to a trivial decrease of between 0.5% and 0.7% for Illinois; for the Chicago PMSA, the decrease will range from 1.0% to 1.3%. On a three-month average basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase by 57.3%-77.5% for Illinois and 57.9%-78.4% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for April 2014 report table)

3

Months’ supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months. 4 REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details.

Housing Forecast





April 2014

5

The pending home sales index5 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This March, homes put under contract increased largely on a monthly basis but still decreased slightly on a yearly basis. The pending home sales index is 154.6 (2008=100) in Illinois, up 30.3% from last month and down 4.1% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 187.2, up 32.3% from last month and down 1.0% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure) In March 2014, 2,485 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 35.0% and up 7.7% respectively from a year and a month ago) and 3,984 foreclosures were completed6 (up 17.0% and 14.7% respectively from a year ago and a month ago). As of March 2014, there are 32,119 homes are at some stage of foreclosures— the foreclosure inventory. The average inventory change rates were -8.3% in the past 6 months, -6.8% in the last 12 months and -3.8% in the last 24 months. Given these rates of change, the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels7 by February 2015, April 2015 and March 2016 respectively. (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Activity and Inventory figures).

The Economy 





In March 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate stayed at 6.7% as last month. The number of nonfarm payroll jobs experienced a gain of 192,000 that is higher than the average job grow of 183,000 in the last 12 months. Among all industries, professional and business services (+57,000) added most jobs. Construction contributed 19,000 job gains, among which residential building construction added 3,100 jobs while residential specialty trade contractors added 6,000 jobs. In February 2014, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, the Illinois unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.7% while 6,400 non-farm payroll jobs were added. Through January 2013, Illinois has added 257,400 new private sector jobs since March 2010 when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession. In February 2014, the one-year-ahead forecast for Illinois indicates that the non-farm employment will grow at a positive rate between 0.17% and 0.77%, corresponding to job gains between 9,900 and 44,700. Four sectors are forecast to show job gains: Professional and business services (3.99%; 36,100), Education and health (1.43%; 12,600), Leisure and hospitality (0.84%; 4,600) and Construction (1.59%; 3,100)

Longer-term Outlook 

5

In March, two consumer confidence indices again pointed in opposite directions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 82.3 (1985=100) from 78.3 last month. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged down to 80.0 from 81.6. While the former index indicated consumers’ positive sentiment about future job prospects and the overall economy growth, there were concerns about income

The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year 2008. This is when an auction occurs, no matter what the auction results are. 7 Average foreclosure inventory from 1997-2005 6

Housing Forecast

April 2014

6

growth. The later index revealed the opposite sentiment—more confidence in personal financial situations but more concerns about the overall economy. 

In April, builder Confidence released by National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up to 47 from 46 in March. This is the third consecutive month with a score below 50. This index measures builder confidence towards the sales condition on single-family market from three perspectives: current sales, sales expected in next six month and the traffic generated by perspective homebuyers. A reading below 50 indicates that builders rate the sales condition as poor.



The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 100.1 in February from 103.1 in January. The decrease is attributed to a decline in job growth in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors in the Chicago area.

“Although the annual sales rates have declined, the month to month changes continue to be strongly positive,” noted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory of the University of Illinois. “In addition, positive housing price gains, continuing declines in the foreclosure inventory levels and the increasing share of sales of homes priced above $200,000 suggest a housing market that is responding positively to signals from the economy.”

Housing Forecast

April 2014

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Forecast for April 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual

Monthly

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Jan-14

-5.7%

-7.1%

-29.0%

-28.6%

Feb-14

-5.0%

-6.9%

-2.3%

-4.3%

Mar-14

-11.6%

-11.1%

24.6%

27.0%

3 Month Avg.

-7.8%

-8.6%

-26.3%

-26.5%

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Illinois

Monthly

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Apr-14

-2.3%

-3.1%

-2.8%

-3.9%

22.0%

29.8%

21.6%

29.2%

May-14

-1.6%

-2.1%

-1.3%

-1.8%

17.7%

23.9%

18.9%

25.6%

Jun-14

2.0%

2.7%

0.9%

1.3%

5.1%

6.9%

3.9%

5.2%

-0.5%

-0.7%

-1.0%

-1.3%

57.3%

77.5%

57.9%

78.4%

3 Month Avg.

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Jan-14

$135,900

$163,000

Jan-13

$125,000

$140,000

Feb-14

$132,500

$156,000

Feb-13

$124,000

$140,000

Mar-14

$147,900

$175,000

Mar-13

$134,500

$155,000

Apr-14

$155,461

$183,528

Apr-13

$145,000

$172,950

May-14

$165,335

$194,844

May-13

$155,000

$183,000

Jun-14

$177,549

$209,829

Jun-13

$170,000

$205,000

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Jan-14

8.7%

16.4%

Jan-13

1.6%

0.0%

Feb-14

6.9%

11.4%

Feb-13

5.1%

3.7%

Mar-14

10.0%

12.9%

Mar-13

3.5%

2.1%

Apr-14

7.2%

6.1%

Apr-13

7.2%

8.1%

May-14

6.7%

6.5%

May-13

6.9%

7.6%

Jun-14

4.4%

2.4%

Jun-13

9.7%

13.0%

Housing Forecast

April 2014

8

Forecast for March 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual

Monthly

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Dec-13

9.7%

10.0%

5.0%

6.4%

Jan-14

-6.0%

-7.4%

-29.1%

-28.8%

Feb-14

-6.2%

-8.2%

-3.2%

-5.3%

-0.1%

-1.1%

-26.4%

-26.8%

3 Month Avg.

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Illinois

Monthly

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Mar-14

-9.3%

-12.5%

-9.2%

-12.4%

23.0%

31.2%

24.8%

33.5%

Apr-14

-8.3%

-11.2%

-10.2%

-13.7%

13.5%

18.3%

11.8%

16.0%

May-14

-13.2%

-17.8%

-13.2%

-17.8%

10.3%

14.0%

12.8%

17.4%

3 Month Avg.

-10.5%

-14.2%

-11.1%

-15.0%

22.0%

29.8%

22.0%

29.8%

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Dec-13

$148,500

$176,000

Dec-12

$131,000

$150,000

Jan-14

$135,850

$163,000

Jan-13

$125,000

$140,000

Feb-14

$132,500

$156,000

Feb-13

$124,000

$140,000

Mar-14

$143,939

$174,259

Mar-13

$134,750

$155,000

Apr-14

$151,433

$183,211

Apr-13

$145,000

$172,950

May-14

$161,295

$194,171

May-13

$155,000

$183,000

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Dec-13

13.4%

17.3%

Dec-12

4.8%

3.4%

Jan-14

8.7%

16.4%

Jan-13

1.6%

0.0%

Feb-14

6.9%

11.4%

Feb-13

5.1%

3.7%

Mar-14

6.8%

12.4%

Mar-13

3.7%

2.1%

Apr-14

4.4%

5.9%

Apr-13

7.2%

8.1%

May-14

4.1%

6.1%

May-13

6.9%

7.6%

Housing Forecast

April 2014

9

Illinois Median Home Sales Price

2012

$190,000

2013 $177,549

$180,000

Forecast

$170,000

Median Sales Price

2014

$165,335 $165,000 $155,461

$160,000

$148,500 $150,000

$147,900

$140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Illinois Total Home Sales

2012

18,000

2013

16,000 16,000

2014

15,100

Forecast

14,000 12,500 12,000 9,929

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

April 2014

10

Chicago PMSA Median Home Sales Price $220,000

2012

$209,829

2013

$210,000

Median Sales Price

2014

$194,844

$200,000

Forecast

$183,528

$190,000 $180,000

$175,000

$170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales 2014

14,000

2012 12,000

11,000

11,500

2013 Forecast

Axis Title

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,177

6,000 4,000 2,000 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

Housing Forecast April 2014

IL_Median

Chicago PMSA_Median

11

Illinois Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1)

1.1

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

IL_REAL

Chicago PMSA Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1)

1.1

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

Chicago PMSA_REAL

20 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14

Housing Forecast April 2014

IL Pending Index

12

Pending Home Sales Index (2008=100)

260

220

180

140

100

60

Chicago Pending Index

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

April 2014

13

Illnois Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 4.6

Overall

6.0 8.1

700K~UP

9.4 5.2

Price by Ranges

500K~700K

6.3 4.8

300K~500K

5.5 4.6

200K~300K

5.7 4.3

100K~200K

2014 Mar

5.8

2014 Feb

4.4

0 ~100K -1.0

2013 Mar

6.1 1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 3.3 Overall

4.6 6.1

700K~UP

7.4 3.9

Price by Ranges

500K~700K

4.7 3.6

300K~500K

4.2 3.4

200K~300K

4.5 2.9

2014 Mar

100K~200K

4.5

2014 Feb

2.7

0 ~100K

2013 Mar

4.6 0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

April 2014

14

Illinois Price Stratification 40% 36.3% 35%

2014 Mar

33.0% 31.1% 31.7%

2014 Feb

Share of Total Sales

30%

2013 Mar

25% 20% 16.3%

14.9% 12.9%

15%

11.4%

10% 3.8%

5%

3.0% 2.9%

2.7%

0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA Price Stratification 40% 2014 Mar

35% 30.4%

30.4% 31.0%

2014 Feb

30%

Share of Total Sales

24.9%

2013 Mar

25% 19.0% 20%

16.4%

16.6% 14.5%

15% 10% 5.0% 4.0%

5%

4.0%

3.7%

0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

April 2014

15

Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 50% 43.5%

45%

2014 Mar

44.1%

40%

2014 Feb

35%

2013 Mar

30%

27.4%

25.1%

25%

19.8% 21.3%

20% 15% 10%

4.4%

5%

3.8%

4.3%

4.2% 1.1%

1.1%

0% 1 Bedrooms

2 Bedrooms

3 Bedrooms

4 Bedrooms

5 Bedrooms

Other

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 45% 40.0%

40%

40.5%

2014 Mar 2014 Feb

35%

2013 Mar

29.4%

30%

26.9%

25% 20.0%

21.2%

20% 15% 10%

5.5%

5.6%

3.8%

5%

4.4% 1.2%

1.3%

0% 1 Bedrooms

2 Bedrooms

3 Bedrooms

4 Bedrooms

5 Bedrooms

Other

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

April 2014

16

Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 50%

44.9%

45%

2014 Mar

44.0%

2014 Feb

40% 35%

31.8%

31.4%

2013 Mar

30% 25% 20% 15% 9.7%

10%

11.7%

10.3%

5%

2.0%

12.2%

2.1%

0% 1 Bathrooms

2 Bathrooms

3 Bathrooms

4 Bathrooms

Other

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 60% 52.3%

2014 Mar

51.2%

2014 Feb

50%

2013 Mar 40% 33.3%

33.9%

30% 20% 11.2%

11.4%

10% 2.4%

2.6%

0.8%

0.9%

0% 1 Bathrooms

2 Bathrooms

3 Bathrooms

4 Bathrooms

Other

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

April 2014

17

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Housing Forecast April 2014 18

Sales Ratio of Foreclosed Properties Chicago PMSA-3 Month Average

35%

30%

25% 24.8%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Housing Forecast

April 2014

19

Share of Bedrooms by Sale price Range

Illinois Bedroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification 60% 1 Bedroom

2 Bedroom

3 Bedroom

4 Bedroom

5 Bedroom

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA Bedroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification Share of Bedrooms by Sale Price Range

60% 1 Bedroom

2 Bedroom

3 Bedroom

4 Bedroom

5 Bedroom

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®