Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, May 2014 ... - MrEd

May 22, 2014 - Contact: Geoffrey Hewings 217-333-4740 ([email protected]). Xian Fang 217-244-7226 ([email protected]). Housing Price Forecasts.
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Housing Price Forecasts Illinois and Chicago PMSA, May 2014

Presented To

Illinois Association of Realtors From R

E

A

L

Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, Institute of Government and Public Affairs University of Illinois

May 22, 2014

Contact:

Geoffrey Hewings 217-333-4740 ([email protected]) Xian Fang 217-244-7226 ([email protected])

Housing Forecast

May 2014

2

Housing Price Forecast: Illinois and Chicago PMSA, May 2014 The Housing Market In April, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA continue to experience negative annual growth rates in sales and positive gains in median housing prices. 11,846 houses were sold in Illinois, 7.8% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 8,391 houses were sold, 9.9% less than last April. The median price was $156,000 in Illinois, up 7.6% from April last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $190,000, up 9.9% from this time last year. The average annual sales level reached its lowest level post-recession in 2011 but has risen rose continuously at a two-digit annual growth rate to a peak in 2013. From the second half of 2011 until September 2013, sales for both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA increased at annual growth rates between 14.8% and 38.1%. Although this robust growth trend has slowed down and revealed negative (annual) growth in the past six months, the current sales levels are still higher than 2012. The sales forecast for May, June and July 2014 suggests a continuing negative growth trend on a yearly basis, but with strong positive growth on a monthly basis. Annually, the three-month average forecasts point to a decrease of between 3.6% and 4.8% for Illinois; for the Chicago PMSA, the decrease will range from 3.5% to 4.8%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase by 44.5%-60.2% for Illinois and 47.3%-64.0% for the Chicago PMSA. The median price forecast indicates slightly milder annual increases in median prices for May, June and July compared to a year ago. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 6.4% in May, 3.5% in June and 2.2% in July. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 11.4% in May, 4.4% in June and 7.3% in July. As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI1 forecast indicates annual growth rates that are slightly higher for Illinois and smoother for Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 6.9% in May, 3.7% in June and 3.5% in July. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 10.3% in May, 7.8% in June and 8.3% in July. According to a post on CRAIN’S Chicago Business, housing prices computed by CoreLogic Case-Shiller at all ZIP code levels, where data are available, experienced increases in 2013. Even though, it is still relatively cheaper to buy than rent in Chicago area compared to many other regions in this country. According to the estimates made by the real estate website Zillow Inc., the breakeven point for buying versus renting in the Chicago area is 2.8 years, lower then national breakeven point—3.1 years. When looking at submarkets by home price ranges, a more active and healthy market at the higher price end is observed compared to the lower price end. According to an article in the Chicago Tribune,2 45% of homes valued less than $103,800 in the Chicago area were still 1

REAL HPI was developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details. http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/chi-fewer-chicagoarea-homeowners-underwater-onmortgages-20140520,0,4003503.story 2

Housing Forecast

May 2014

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underwater at the end of March. Comparative figures for homes valued in the range of $103,800-$330,800 and above $330,800 are at much lower level, 28% and 13% respectively. Being underwater probably dampens homeowners’ interest in listing their homes for sale. Our months of supply data demonstrate the same phenomenon. Although there were consistent decreases in months of supply for homes in all price ranges, the driving mechanisms varied for homes with different values. For homes above $200K, the decrease was dominated by the increase in pending sales; while for homes less than $200K, decreasing inventory accounted for the declines in months of supply. Moreover, in terms of time on the market, homes at all price ranges above $100K sold more rapidly on average than a year ago while homes at the lower end of the market (<=$100K) took a longer time to sell in Illinois and similar amount of days to sell in the Chicago PMSA. In addition, the components of future homebuyers are predicted to be different. According to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, home purchasing attitudes for household in the top third of the income percentiles improved in contrast with declines in buying plans for lower income households. In April 2014, foreclosure inventory further decreased at a faster pace and is now projected to return to pre-bubble levels six months faster than the projection made last month. 2,770 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 31.0% and up 11.5% respectively from a year and a month ago) and 4,767 foreclosures were completed3 (up 33.1% and 23.7% respectively from a year ago and a month ago). As of April 2014, there are 26,039 homes at some stage of foreclosure in Illinois — this comprises the foreclosure inventory. REAL’s analysis projects that the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels 4 by October 2014 if the declines in the average rates were of the past 6 months (-10.7%) were sustained. The Housing Market – Current Condition  In April, both Illinois and the Chicago PMSA experienced the fourth consecutive month of annual decreases in sales but retained robust gains in median housing prices. 11,846 houses were sold in Illinois, 7.8% less than a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, 8,391 houses were sold, 9.9% less than last April. The median price was $156,000 in Illinois, up 7.6% from April last year; the comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was $190,000, up 9.9% from this time last year. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales and Median Home Sales Price figures; Forecast for May 2014 report table)  In April, at the latest average annual pending sales rate, Illinois had enough housing inventory for 5.0 months5 (down from 6.0 months a year ago). In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure was 3.6 months (down from 4.6 months a year ago). Unlike the heterogeneous changes in housing supply across different price ranges in last month, a consistent decrease in inventory in all price ranges was observed. The decrease for homes priced below $200K are accounted for by greater decreases in inventory than pending sales; while for homes above $200K, the decrease is explained more by the

3

This is when an auction occurs, no matter what the auction results are. Average foreclosure inventory from 1997-2005 5 Months’ supply of inventory is defined as inventory of homes for sale at the end of the month divided by the average monthly pending sales in the last twelve months. 4

Housing Forecast





May 2014

4

increase in pending sales than in inventory. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Annual Months’ Supply by Price Range figures) In April, homes priced below $100K held a smaller market share compared to a year ago, while homes at all other higher price ranges received increases in market shares. For Illinois, homes priced below $100K held a market share that decreased to 29.9% from 33.3% a year ago. The comparable figure for the Chicago PMSA was 22.1% decreasing from 27% recorded in April 2013. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Price Stratification figures) In terms of house characteristics, the percentage of homes sold with one and two bedrooms was around 2.0% more compared to last year for both Illinois and Chicago PMSA; while in terms of bathrooms, the characteristics of homes sold have been steady. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification figures)

The Housing Market – Forecast and Future Condition  The median price forecast indicates slightly milder annual increases in median prices for May, June and July compared to a year ago. In Illinois, the median price is forecast to rise by 6.4% in May, 3.5% in June and 2.2% in July. For the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figures are 11.4% in May, 4.4% in June and 7.3% in July. (Reference: Forecast for May 2014 report table)  As a complement to the median housing price index (HPI), the REAL HPI6 forecast indicates annual growth rates that are slightly higher for Illinois and smoother for Chicago PMSA. In Illinois, the REAL HPI (Jan 2008=1) is forecast to rise by 6.9% in May, 3.7% in June and 3.5% in July. The comparative figures for the Chicago PMSA are 10.3% in May, 7.8% in June and 8.3% in July. REAL HPI takes housing characteristics into account and constructs comparable “baskets” of homes for each month. (Reference: Housing Price Index)  The sales forecast for May, June and July 2014 suggests a continuing negative growth trend on a yearly basis but strong positive growth on a monthly basis. Annually, the three-month average forecasts point to a decrease of between 3.6% and 4.8% for Illinois; for the Chicago PMSA, the decrease will range from 3.5% to 4.8%. On a monthly basis, the three-month average sales are forecast to increase by 44.5%-60.2% for Illinois and 47.3%-64.0% for the Chicago PMSA. (Reference: Forecast for May 2014 report table)  The pending home sales index7 is a leading indicator based on contract signings. This April, homes put under contract increased on a monthly basis but still decreased on a yearly basis. The pending home sales index is 171.3 (2008=100) in Illinois, up 9.6% from last month and down 4.2% from a year ago. In the Chicago PMSA, the comparable figure is 204.1, up 11.2% from last month and down 1.3% from a year ago. (Reference: Illinois and Chicago PMSA Pending Home Sales Index figure)  In April 2014, 2,770 houses were newly filed for foreclosure in the Chicago PMSA (down 31.0% and up 11.5% respectively from a year and a month ago) and 4,767 foreclosures were completed8 (up 33.1% and 23.7% respectively from a year ago and a month ago). As of April 2014, there are 26,039 homes are at some stage of 6

REAL HPI is developed by Esteban Lopez and Minshu Du. Contact us for technique details. The base level (100) of pending home sales is the average pending home sales of year 2008. 8 This is when an auction occurs, no matter what the auction results are. 7

Housing Forecast

May 2014

5

foreclosures— the foreclosure inventory. The average inventory change rates were -10.7% in the past 6 months, -8.2% in the last 12 months and -4.6% in the last 24 months. Given these rates of change, the foreclosure inventory would return to the pre-bubble levels9 by Oct 2014, Dec 2014 and Jul 2015 respectively. (Reference: Chicago PMSA Foreclosure Activity and Inventory figures). The Economy 





In April 2014, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report, the national unemployment rate fell to 6.3% which is a low for the past five and half years. The number of nonfarm payroll jobs experienced a gain of 288,000 that is higher than the average job grow of 190,000 in the last 12 months. Among all industries, professional and business services (+75,000) added the most jobs. Construction contributed 32,000 job gains, among which residential building construction added 6,900 jobs while residential specialty trade contractors added 6,200 jobs. In April 2014, according to Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) news release, the Illinois unemployment rate fell to 7.9%, the lowest since December 2008 and largest monthly drop since 1976. In a separate survey, however, 6,800 non-farm payroll jobs were lost. Through March 2014, Illinois has added 249,600 new private sector jobs since January 2010 when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession. In March 2014, the one-year-ahead forecast for Illinois indicates that the non-farm employment will grow at a positive rate between 0.03% and 0.25%, corresponding to job gains between 1,600 and 14,700. Four sectors are forecast to show job gains: Professional and business services (2.55%; 23,000), Education and health (1.30%; 11,400), Leisure and hospitality (0.91%; 5,000) and Financial activities (0.03%; 100)

Longer-term Outlook

9



In April, two consumer confidence indices again pointed in different directions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 82.3 (1985=100) from 83.9 last month. While it indicated consumers’ concerns on current business and labor market conditions, they expressed relatively steady sentiment towards future of the economy and job conditions. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 84.1 from 80.0 last month, close to the peak figure since 2007. This index revealed the substantial improvements in consumers’ current sentiment, but weaker growth of confidence in the future job conditions.



In May, Builder Confidence released by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged down by one point to 45 from 46 in April. In the past four months, it has been steady around a level below 50. This index measures builder confidence towards the sales conditions for the single-family market from three perspectives: current sales, sales expected in next six month and the traffic generated by perspective homebuyers. A reading below 50 indicates that builders rate the sales condition as poor.

Average foreclosure inventory from 1997-2005

Housing Forecast



May 2014

6

The Chicago Business Activity Index (CBAI) decreased to 94.7 in March from 97.6 in February. The decrease is attributed to a decline in job growth in manufacturing and construction sectors in the Chicago area.

“There is continuing good news with increasing median prices,” noted Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory of the University of Illinois. “However, inventory remains a problem, especially at the lower end of the market. While the annual month-over-month sales rates are forecast to decline this quarter, the month-to-month are forecast to be positive. 2013 mid-year sales rates were very high in comparison to 2012 and 2014.”

Housing Forecast

May 2014

7

Forecast for May 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual

Monthly

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Feb-14

-4.9%

-6.7%

-2.2%

-4.2%

Mar-14

-10.5%

-9.8%

25.8%

28.5%

Apr-14

-7.8%

-9.9%

17.9%

15.3%

-8.0%

-9.1%

-2.3%

-2.8%

3 Month Avg.

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Illinois

Monthly

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

May-14

-7.7%

-10.4%

-7.4%

-10.0%

15.5%

20.9%

18.3%

24.8%

Jun-14

-3.5%

-4.7%

-2.8%

-3.8%

6.1%

8.2%

6.7%

9.0%

Jul-14

0.2%

0.2%

-0.6%

-0.9%

8.5%

11.5%

7.7%

10.5%

-3.6%

-4.8%

-3.5%

-4.8%

44.5%

60.2%

47.3%

64.0%

3 Month Avg.

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Feb-14

$132,500

$156,000

Feb-13

$124,000

$140,000

Mar-14

$148,000

$175,000

Mar-13

$134,500

$155,000

Apr-14

$156,000

$190,000

Apr-13

$145,000

$172,950

May-14

$164,972

$203,917

May-13

$155,000

$183,000

Jun-14

$175,993

$214,100

Jun-13

$170,000

$205,000

Jul-14

$170,757

$214,688

Jul-13

$167,000

$200,000

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Feb-14

6.9%

11.4%

Feb-13

5.1%

3.7%

Mar-14

10.0%

12.9%

Mar-13

3.5%

2.1%

Apr-14

7.6%

9.9%

Apr-13

7.2%

8.1%

May-14

6.4%

11.4%

May-13

6.9%

7.6%

Jun-14

3.5%

4.4%

Jun-13

9.7%

13.0%

Jul-14

2.2%

7.3%

Jul-13

13.4%

17.6%

Housing Forecast

May 2014

8

Forecast for April 2014 report PERCENTAGE CHANGE FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual

Monthly

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Jan-14

-5.7%

-7.1%

-29.0%

-28.6%

Feb-14

-5.0%

-6.9%

-2.3%

-4.3%

Mar-14

-11.6%

-11.1%

24.6%

27.0%

3 Month Avg.

-7.8%

-8.6%

-26.3%

-26.5%

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST INTERVALS FOR THE TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES Annual Illinois

Monthly

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Apr-14

-2.3%

-3.1%

-2.8%

-3.9%

22.0%

29.8%

21.6%

29.2%

May-14

-1.6%

-2.1%

-1.3%

-1.8%

17.7%

23.9%

18.9%

25.6%

Jun-14

2.0%

2.7%

0.9%

1.3%

5.1%

6.9%

3.9%

5.2%

-0.5%

-0.7%

-1.0%

-1.3%

57.3%

77.5%

57.9%

78.4%

3 Month Avg.

SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Jan-14

$135,900

$163,000

Jan-13

$125,000

$140,000

Feb-14

$132,500

$156,000

Feb-13

$124,000

$140,000

Mar-14

$147,900

$175,000

Mar-13

$134,500

$155,000

Apr-14

$155,461

$183,528

Apr-13

$145,000

$172,950

May-14

$165,335

$194,844

May-13

$155,000

$183,000

Jun-14

$177,549

$209,829

Jun-13

$170,000

$205,000

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE OF THE MEDIAN PRICE Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Illinois

Chicago PMSA

Jan-14

8.7%

16.4%

Jan-13

1.6%

0.0%

Feb-14

6.9%

11.4%

Feb-13

5.1%

3.7%

Mar-14

10.0%

12.9%

Mar-13

3.5%

2.1%

Apr-14

7.2%

6.1%

Apr-13

7.2%

8.1%

May-14

6.7%

6.5%

May-13

6.9%

7.6%

Jun-14

4.4%

2.4%

Jun-13

9.7%

13.0%

Housing Forecast

May 2014

9

Illinois Median Home Sales Price

2012

$175,993

$180,000

2013

$170,757

Median Sales Price

$170,000

2014

$164,972

$160,000

Forecast

$156,000

$150,000

$148,000

$140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Illinois Total Home Sales 18,000

2012 2013

16,500

2014

15,000

16,000

Forecast

14,000

14,000 11,846 12,000 10,044

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

May 2014

10

Chicago PMSA Median Home Sales Price $220,000

2012

$214,100

$210,000

2013

$214,688

$203,917

2014

Median Sales Price

$200,000

Forecast

$190,000

$190,000 $180,000

$175,000

$170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA Total Home Sales 2014

14,000

2012

12,000 12,000

2013

11,000 10,200

Forecast

Axis Title

10,000 8,391

8,000 7,277 6,000 4,000 2,000 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA_Median

Chicago PMSA_REAL May-14

Jan-14

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13

IL_Median

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

Sep-11

May-11

Jan-11

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10

Sep-09

May-09

Jan-09

Sep-08

May-08

Jan-08

May-14

Jan-14

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

Sep-11

May-11

Jan-11

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10

Sep-09

May-09

Jan-09

Sep-08

May-08

Jan-08

Housing Forecast May 2014 11

Illinois Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1)

1.1

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

IL_REAL

Chicago PMSA Housing Price Index (Jan 2008=1)

1.1

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

20 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14

Housing Forecast May 2014

IL Pending Index

12

Pending Home Sales Index (2008=100)

260

220

180

140

100

60

Chicago Pending Index

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

May 2014

13

Illnois Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 5.0

Overall

6.0 9.2 9.7

700K~UP 5.9 6.3

Price by Ranges

500K~700K

5.5 5.6

300K~500K

5.1

200K~300K

5.8 4.6

100K~200K

2014 Apr

5.8

2014 Mar

4.5

0 ~100K -1.0

2013 Apr

6.0 1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago Annual Months' Supply by Price Range 3.6 Overall

4.6 7.1

700K~UP

7.7 4.5

Price by Ranges

500K~700K

4.9 4.1

300K~500K

4.2 3.8

200K~300K

4.5 3.1

2014 Apr

100K~200K

4.4

2014 Mar

2.7

0 ~100K

2013 Apr

4.5 0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

May 2014

14

Illinois Price Stratification 40% 35%

33.3% 29.9%

2014 Apr 31.5% 30.8%

2014 Mar

Share of Total Sales

30%

2013 Apr

25% 20%

16.9%

15.7%

15%

14.3%

12.8%

10% 4.2%

5%

3.9%

3.3%

3.4%

0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA Price Stratification 40% 2014 Apr

35% 29.5%

Share of Total Sales

30% 25%

2014 Mar

29.3%

27.0%

2013 Apr

22.1% 19.7%

20%

18.5% 17.4%

16.4%

15% 10% 5.6%

5.2%

5%

4.6%

4.6%

0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

May 2014

15

Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 50% 45%

42.8%

2014 Apr

42.9%

40%

2014 Mar

35%

2013 Apr

30%

26.8%

25%

25.0% 21.0% 22.0%

20% 15% 10%

4.5%

5%

4.0%

4.4%

4.6% 0.9%

1.1%

0% 1 Bedrooms

2 Bedrooms

3 Bedrooms

4 Bedrooms

5 Bedrooms

Other

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bedroom 45% 39.3%

40%

2014 Apr

39.4%

2014 Mar 35%

2013 Apr 28.2%

30%

26.6%

25%

21.6% 22.6%

20% 15% 10%

5.9%

5.6%

4.0%

5%

4.5% 1.1%

1.3%

0% 1 Bedrooms

2 Bedrooms

3 Bedrooms

4 Bedrooms

5 Bedrooms

Other

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

May 2014

16

Illinois House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 50%

45.1%

45.1%

2014 Apr

45%

2014 Mar

40% 35%

30.4%

2013 Apr

30.3%

30% 25% 20% 15% 10.1%

10%

12.3%

10.7%

5%

2.1%

11.8%

2.1%

0% 1 Bathrooms

2 Bathrooms

3 Bathrooms

4 Bathrooms

Other

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA House Characteristics Stratification by Bathroom 60% 53.1%

2014 Apr

52.4%

2014 Mar

50%

2013 Apr 40% 32.0%

31.9%

30% 20% 11.6%

12.2%

10% 2.7%

2.7%

0.6%

0.9%

0% 1 Bathrooms

2 Bathrooms

3 Bathrooms

4 Bathrooms

Other

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

May 2014

17

Apr-14

20%

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Housing Forecast May 2014 18

Sales Ratio of Foreclosed Properties Chicago PMSA-3 Month Average

35%

30%

25%

23.4%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Housing Forecast

May 2014

19

Illinois Average Time on the Market (Day) 140

2014 Apr

2014 Mar

2013 Apr

120 96 Days

100

92

88

82

82

76

73

71

80

56

52

300K~500K

500K~700K

60

60

66

40 20 0 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

700K~UP

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA Average Time on the Market (Day) 140 2014 Apr

2014 Mar

2013 Apr

120 100 Days

77 80

85 78 69

77

75

69

60

60

66

51

49

300K~500K

500K~700K

55

40 20 0 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

700K~UP

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

May 2014

20

Share of Bedrooms by Sale price Range

Illinois Bedroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification 60% 1 Bedroom

2 Bedroom

3 Bedroom

4 Bedroom

5 Bedroom

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA Bedroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification Share of Bedrooms by Sale Price Range

60% 1 Bedroom

2 Bedroom

3 Bedroom

4 Bedroom

5 Bedroom

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Housing Forecast

May 2014

21

Share of Bathtooms by Sle Price Range

Illinois Bathroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification 70%

1 Bathroom 2 Bathroom

60%

3 Bathroom 4 Bathroom

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®

Chicago PMSA Bathroom Shares by Sale Price Stratification Share of Bathroom by Sale Price Range

70%

1 Bathroom 2 Bathroom

60%

3 Bathroom 4 Bathroom

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0 ~100K

100K~200K

200K~300K

300K~500K

500K~700K

700K~UP

Chicago PMSA: Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry and Will counties Source: University of Illinois REAL, Illinois Association of REALTORS®