iavwopsg/8 - ICAO

IAVWO OPSG/8-REP PORT

TH MEETIN NG EIGHT

OF F THE INTER RNATIONA AL AIRWAY YS VOLCAN NO WATCH OPE ERATIONS GROUP (IA AVWOPSG) Melbo ourne, Australia, 17 to 20 F February 20114

IN NTERNATIONAL CIVIIL AVIATIO ON ORGANIIZATION

History of the meeting

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The designation and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of ICAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

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History of the meeting TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of IAVWOPSG decisions ..................................................................................................... .

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List of IAVWOPSG conclusions ................................................................................................. .

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Agenda Item 1: Opening of the meeting Place and duration ........................................................................................................................... Attendance ....................................................................................................................................... Chairman and officers of the Secretariat .........................................................................................

1-1 1-1 1-1

Agenda Item 2: Organizational matters Adoption of working arrangements ................................................................................................. Adoption of the agenda ....................................................................................................................

2-1.1 2-2.1

Agenda Item 3: Follow-up of IAVWOPSG/7 conclusions .........................................................

3-1

Agenda Item 4: Review of ICAO provisions related to IAVW Review of the ANP/FASID procedures ........................................................................................... Status of Amendment 77 to Annex 3 ............................................................................................... Review of IAVW-related guidance material ...................................................................................

4.1-1 4.2-1 4.3-1

Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW (Deliverables 01, 03, 04 and 05) Implementation of the IAVW, including the IAVW management reports (Deliverable 01) ........... Improvement of the production processes, format and content of all volcanic ash related messages (Deliverable 03) ............................................................................................................................... Issuance of a special air-report related to the smell of sulphur (Deliverable 04)............................. Updating of the worldwide ash encounter database (including the model VAR) (Deliverable 05).

5.1-1 5.2-1 5.3-1 5.4-1

Agenda Item 6: Development of the IAVW (Deliverables 06, 07 and 10) Improvement of tools for detecting and forecasting volcanic ash (Deliverable 06) ........................ 6.1-1 Refinement of volcanic ash deposition information in a suitable aeronautical message (Deliverable 07) ............................................................................................................................... 6.2-1 Health risks to aircraft occupants posed by sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere (Deliverable 10) ............................................................................................................ 6.3-1 Agenda Item 7: Improved notification concerning the release of radioactive material into the atmosphere (Deliverable 8) ..............................................................................

7-1


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Agenda Item 8: Matters related to the assessment of the need to provide information on solar radiation storms and other bio-hazards (Deliverable 09).......................

8-1 9-1

Agenda Item 9: Future work programme ................................................................................... Agenda Item 10: Any other business ............................................................................................

10-1

Appendix A — Appendix B — Appendix C — Appendix D —

List of participants .............................................................................................. Basic ANP/FASID provisions related to IAVW ................................................. Amendment to Doc 9766 related to phases of eruptions ..................................... Amendment to Doc 9766 related to the VAAC volcanic ash advisory collaborative decision analysis and forecasting process ..................................... Appendix E — Guidance material concerning SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud .......

A-1 B-1 C-1 D-1

Appendix F — Appendix G — Appendix H — Appendix I — Appendix J —

F-1 G-1 H-1 I-1 J-1

Map projections used for the representation of volcanic ash clouds ................... Proposed changes to Doc 9766............................................................................ Proposed addition to Doc 9766 ........................................................................... Terms of reference of the IAVWOPSG ............................................................... Work programme (deliverables) of the IAVWOPSG ..........................................

E-1

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History of the meeting LIST OF IAVWOPSG DECISIONS Page

Decision 8/1 — Follow-up of IAVWOPSG/7 conclusions ...................................................................3-1 Decision 8/10 — Operational information for a standardized international volcano database for the preparation of volcanic ash advisories ..................................................................4.3-7 Decision 8/15— Roadmap for IAVW in support of international air navigation ..................................5.1-7 Decision 8/24— Concept of operations for the provision of space weather information in support of international air navigation..........................................................................................6.1-4 Decision 8/25— Update of the work programme of the IAVWOPSG ..................................................9-1


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LIST OF IAVWOPSG CONCLUSIONS Page Conclusion 8/2—

Amendment to the IAVW-related regional procedures in the Basic ANP and FASID ....................................................................................................................4.1-1

Conclusion 8/3—

Guidance on agreed in-situ and/or remote sensing techniques for discernible ash...........................................................................................................................4.3-2

Conclusion 8/4—

Consistency of guidance material relating to phases of the eruption .....................4.3-3

Conclusion 8/5—

Guidance material concerning the definition of a “lead VAAC” ..........................4.3-4

Conclusion 8/6—

Guidance for collaborative decision analysis and forecasting process for volcanic ash advisories by the VAACs ..................................................................4.3-5

Conclusion 8/7—

Expansion of the collaborative decision analysis and forecasting process to allow its application to all significant volcanic events ...........................................4.3-5

Conclusion 8/8—

Guidance material for SIGMETs for a complex volcanic ash cloud ......................4.3-6

Conclusion 8/9—

Model chart for SIGMET for volcanic ash in graphical format .............................4.3-6

Conclusion 8/11— Extension of VAAC London area of responsibility ...............................................5.1-3 Conclusion 8/12— Coverage of the unmonitored area north of the area of responsibility of VAAC Tokyo .....................................................................................................................5.1-4 Conclusion 8/13— Extension of VAAC Toulouse area of responsibility .............................................5.1-4 Conclusion 8/14— Assessment of the feasibility of the establishment of a volcanology desk .............5.1-6 Conclusion 8/16— Update of Model VAG and Model SVA of Appendix 1 to Annex 3 ....................5.1-8 Conclusion 8/17— Update to Table 4-3 of Doc 9766 ...........................................................................5.1-9 Conclusion 8/18— Trial product for volcanic ash information at T+24 hours .....................................5.2-2 Conclusion 8/19— Trial of operational allocation of forecast confidence in the production of VA advisories ................................................................................................................5.2-2 Conclusion 8/20— Dissemination of aircraft reports of volcanic ash to VAACs .................................5.2-5 Conclusion 8/21— Further improvement of the dissemination of aircraft reports of volcanic ash to VAACs ..................................................................................................................5.2-5 Conclusion 8/22— Progress regarding aerosol observation capabilities and related activities............. 6.1-2 Conclusion 8/23— Development of a manual on space weather for international air navigation .......8.2 Conclusion 8/26— Collection and sharing of engineering and/or technical data from aircraft encountering the Kelut volcanic ash cloud .............................................................10.1 ————————

Report on Agenda Item 1

1-1

Agenda Item 1: Opening of the meeting

1.1

Place and duration

1.1.1 The eighth meeting of the International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG/8) was held in Melbourne, Australia, at the Head Office of the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia, from 17 to 20 February 2014. 1.1.2 The meeting was opened at 1000 hours by the Bureau of Meteorology’s Dr. Ray Canterford, Deputy Director Hazards, Warnings and Forecasts, who welcomed the participants and stressed the importance of the main tasks of the group and its role in ensuring that the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) continued to meet evolving global and, where appropriate, regional operational requirements. 1.2

Attendance

1.2.1

The list of participants is provided in Appendix A.

1.3

Chairman and officers of the Secretariat

1.3.1

The Chairman of the group, Mr. Peter D. Lechner, presided over the meeting.

1.3.2 Mr. Raul Romero, Technical Officer Meteorology, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Headquarters, Montréal was secretary of the meeting, assisted by Mr. Michael Berechree, National Manager Aviation Weather Services, Bureau of Meteorology. ————————

Report on Agenda Item 2.1 Agenda Item 2: Organizational matters 2.1: Adoption of working arrangements 2.1

Adoption of working arrangements

2.1.1

The meeting adopted appropriate working arrangements.

2.1-1

Report on Agenda Item 2.2

2.2-1

Agenda Item 2: Organizational matters 2.2: Adoption of the agenda 2.2

Adoption of the agenda

2.2.1

The following agenda was adopted:

Agenda Item 1:

Opening of the meeting

Agenda Item 2:

Organizational matters

2.1: 2.2:

Adoption of working arrangements Adoption of the agenda

Agenda Item 3:

Follow-up of IAVWOPSG/7 conclusions

Agenda Item 4:

Review of ICAO provisions related to the IAVW (Deliverable 02)

4.1: 4.2: 4.3: Agenda Item 5: 5.1: 5.2: 5.3: 5.4:

Agenda Item 6: 6.1: 6.2: 6.3:

Review of ANP/FASID procedures Status of draft Amendment 77 to Annex 3 Review of IAVW-related guidance material Operation of the IAVW (Deliverables 01, 03, 04 and 05) Implementation of the IAVW, including the IAVW management reports (Deliverable 01) Improvement of the production processes, format and content of all volcanic ash related messages (Deliverable 03) Issuance of a special air-report related to the smell of sulphur (Deliverable 04) Updating of the worldwide ash encounter database (including the model VAR) (Deliverable 05) Development of the IAVW (Deliverables 06, 07 and 10) Improvement of tools for detecting and forecasting volcanic ash (Deliverable 06) Refinement of volcanic ash deposition information in a suitable aeronautical message (Deliverable 07) Health risks to aircraft occupants posed by sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere (Deliverable 10)

Agenda Item 7:

Improved notification concerning the release of radioactive material into the atmosphere (Deliverable 08)

Agenda Item 8:

Matters related to the assessment of the need to provide information on solar radiation storms and other bio-hazards (Deliverable 09)

Agenda Item 9:

Future work programme

Agenda Item 10:

Any other business

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3-1

Agenda Item 3: Follow-up of IAVWOPSG/7 conclusions 3.1 The group recalled that at seventh meeting of the International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG/7) it had formulated thirty-six conclusions and six decisions. In addition, Conclusions 6/23 and 6/33 remained valid from the IAVWOPSG/6 Meeting. The group noted that no follow-up action was required on decisions. 3.2 The group noted that IAVWOPSG/7 Conclusions 7/8, 7/31, 7/32 and 7/33 had been taken on-board by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG). Accordingly, the group agreed that the follow-up to the referred conclusions could be considered completed insofar as the IAVWOPSG was concerned. 3.3 The group noted that, taking into consideration the above and the discussion under agenda items 4 to 8, follow-up action could be considered complete except for Conclusions 6/23, 7/13, 7/19, 7/20, 7/22, 7/23, 7/30, 7/34, 7/36 and 7/37 which would require additional work by the group, and remain valid. Therefore, the group formulated the following decision: Decision 8/1 —

Follow-up of IAVWOPSG/7 conclusions

That, except for Conclusions 6/23, 7/13, 7/19, 7/20, 7/22, 7/23, 7/30, 7/34, 7/36 and 7/37, the follow-up action on the IAVWOPSG/7 conclusions be considered completed.

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4.1-1

Agenda Item 4: Review of ICAO provisions related to IAVW 4.1 Review of ANP/FASID procedures

4.1

Review of ANP/FASID procedures

4.1.1 The group recalled that it had been tasked to review the international airways volcano watch (IAVW)-related procedures contained in the air navigation plan (ANP)/facilities and services implementation document (FASID) at every meeting. The group was invited to review these procedures and propose any additional amendments, as necessary. In this regard, at the end of the meeting, modifications of the volcanic ash advisory centres (VAACs) areas of responsibility were introduced by the group as a result of the discussions under Agenda Item 5.1. After reviewing these provisions the group proposed amendments to the IAVW-related regional procedures as shown in Appendix B to this report and formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 8/2 — Amendment to the IAVW-related regional procedures in the Basic ANP and FASID That the Secretariat forward the IAVW-related regional procedures as shown in Appendix B to this report to the ICAO Regional Offices for processing and onward transmission to States for comments, as necessary, with a view to their early inclusion in the Basic ANP and FASID.


4.2-1

Agenda Item 4: Review of ICAO provisions related to IAVW 4.2 Status of Amendment 77 to Annex 3

4.2

Status of Amendment 77 to Annex 3

4.2.1 The group noted that draft proposals for amendment of Annex 3 – Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and other associated ICAO provisions emanating from ICAO expert groups (including the IAVWOPSG) together with Secretariat proposals had been consolidated by the Secretariat in MET/14-WP/11 for consideration by the MET Divisional Meeting in July 2014 (MET/14) under Agenda Item 5. 4.2.2 The group appreciated that, subject to a review by the divisional meeting, the proposed amendments were expected to form the basis of Amendment 77 to Annex 3 with intended applicability in November 2016. 4.2.3 The group noted that the working documentation for the referred divisional meeting was available on a dedicated website at www.icao.int/meetings/METDIV14.


4.3-1

Agenda Item 4: Review of ICAO provisions related to IAVW 4.3: Review of IAVW-related guidance material

4.3

Review of IAVW-related guidance material

4.3.1 The group noted that at the IAVWOPSG/7 Meeting it formulated several conclusions tasking members and the Secretary to work together regarding the development of guidance material. The group reviewed the follow-up action with regard to Conclusions 7/6, 7/7, 7/8, 7/9, 7/10, 7/15, 7/16, 7/21, 7/24, 7/27 and 7/30, as follows. 4.3.2 With regard to Conclusion 7/6, the group reviewed a report presented by the United Kingdom as Rapporteur, which provided a progress report on the development of guidance material to support VAAC monitoring of relevant ground-based and airborne data to detect the existence and extent of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. In this regard, the group noted the findings of the progress report as follows: a) the development of new capabilities and techniques for the detection and monitoring of discernible volcanic ash continues to be an active area of research; b) multi-spectral satellite imagery was being used in operational applications, although it was noted that geostationary satellite capabilities varied significantly around the world depending on geographic location; c) ceilometers and Lidar were increasingly being transitioned into operations, particularly in Europe where the EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network) and EUMETNET (network of 29 European National Meteorological Services) E-PROFILE programmes were working closely with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme to develop an operational Lidar and ceilometer network for Europe; d)

in-situ measurements of volcanic ash concentrations were available from only a small number of suitably equipped aircraft located in, or readily accessible to, areas with volcanic ash therefore spatial coverage is very limited in comparison to satellite networks. Similarly Lidar/ceilometer networks cover a small area in comparison to satellite networks. Commercial aircraft mounted remote sensing and in-situ probes and sensors were the subject of further research but the operational deployment and application of such capabilities was still to be realized;

e) Doppler radar could be used to monitor the height of the eruptive plume, but the fine nature of distal volcanic ash limited radar derived applications to no more than 15 kilometres from the volcanic eruption; f) aerosol sondes remained an on-going field of research with potential for significant geographical coverage in remote parts of the world or in areas where traditional observations were not available; g) no one capability could be used as sole source to provide guidance on the location of the ash cloud. Rather, an integrated observing network that incorporates the full range of existing capabilities and techniques was recommended; and

4.3-2

Report on Agenda Item 4.3 h) with the exception of the very limited number of suitably equipped strategically located aircraft, extensive, accurate near-real-time measurements of ash mass concentration were simply not available, notwithstanding that estimates of mass concentration based on “educated” assumptions, algorithms, and observations utilizing satellite derived ash mass column loading retrievals, Lidar, ceilometer and sun-photometer data were being rapidly developed.

4.3.3 Considering that the minimum detection threshold of Lidar and ceilometer systems was around 0.03 mg/m3, which is almost an order of magnitude below an approximation associated with the minimum satellite detection threshold, the group concurred that the “agreed technique” for these capabilities should be limited to clear skies evidence of “no discernible ash” i.e. Lidar and ceilometers systems should not to be used as evidence of ‘discernible ash’ unless supported by other forms of observational evidence such as qualitative satellite imagery or ash concentration measurements of at least 0.2 mg/m3 derived from in-situ airborne or Lidar/sun-photometer measurements. Without traditional infrared satellite observations to the contrary, the group therefore recommended that VAACs should treat areas having Lidar/sun-photometer measurements less than 0.2 mg/m3 as an area without discernible ash. 4.3.4 Taking into account the information discussed above, the group agreed that further work was necessary in this regard and that it may be necessary to develop guidance material for inclusion in documents such as “VAAC Best Practices” document rather than the Manual on Volcanic Ash, Radioactive Material and Toxic Chemical Clouds (Doc 9691). The group, therefore formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 8/3 —

Guidance on agreed in-situ and/or remote sensing techniques for discernible ash

That an ad-hoc group consisting of members from all the VAAC Provider States, with the United Kingdom as Rapporteur, Germany, IATA, ICCAIA, IUGG and WMO, be tasked to: a) further review the conclusions and state of the science related to the development and use of “agreed techniques” for remotely sensed and in-situ volcanic ash observations; and b) develop associated proposed guidance material for the VAACs, and recommend where this reference material should be placed, for consideration by the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting.


4.3-3

4.3.5 The group reviewed a progress report presented by France, as the Rapporteur of Conclusion 7/7, concerning the development of guidance material relating to phases of eruption. In this regard, the group reviewed the changes suggested by the ad hoc group to Part 4 of the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766) to ensure consistency with the manual on Flight Safety and Volcanic Ash (Doc 9974) concerning the phases of eruption. The group formulated the following conclusion accordingly. Conclusion 8/4 —

Consistency of guidance material relating to phases of the eruption

That the Secretary include the proposed changes to guidance material relating to the phases of an eruption, as given in Appendix C to this report, into the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766) to ensure consistency with the manual on Flight Safety and Volcanic Ash (Doc 9974). 4.3.6 The group also reviewed the information provided by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG) with regard to the follow-up of Conclusion 7/8 that concerned the development of training material to support the use of quantitative, satellite-derived, volcanic ash and gas products for operational use by VAACs. 4.3.7 In this regard, the group noted a WMO-IUGG VASAG agreement on the need to develop such training in view of the operational application of such products. The group also noted that a WMOIUGG VASAG joint session had been held at WMO headquarters with members of a WMO ad-hoc SCOPE (Sustained Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Records for Nowcasting) Group, at which a SCOPE-Nowcasting advanced volcanic ash detection project with the support of major satellite providers had been discussed. This discussion had been facilitated by the groups having one member in common, namely Dr. Michael Pavolonis. The WMO-IUGG VASAG had agreed that, from the point of view of the States involved, this initiative represented part of a proactive response to the Joint ICAO/WMO State Letter AN 10/18.3-13/53 of May 2013, and was therefore very welcome. The WMO-IUGG VASAG was also enthusiastic about proposed inter-comparison work as part of the project in support of continuous improvement of techniques and their implementation. The group noted that further progress would be reported by the WMO-IUGG VASAG at subsequent meetings and therefore agreed that, insofar as the IAVWOPSG was concerned, the follow-up of Conclusion 7/8 could be considered complete. 4.3.8 The group noted that, as a follow-up of Conclusion 7/9 and after coordination with the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) member, the Secretary had included guidance material regarding airborne instrumented measurements of volcanic ash clouds in the Manual on Volcanic Ash, Radioactive Material and Toxic Chemical Clouds (Doc 9691). With regard to the follow-up of Conclusion 7/10, the group also noted that the Secretary had included guidance material in Doc 9766 concerning the conducting of volcanic ash exercises in the ICAO regions. 4.3.9 The group reviewed a report presented by Canada as Rapporteur of the ad-hoc group tasked to follow-up Conclusion 7/15 concerning the definition of a “lead VAAC”. In this regard, the group noted that during the discussions among members of the ad-hoc group it had become evident that there remained several issues that needed discussion before protocols could be agreed upon to serve for future responses.

4.3-4 4.3.10

Report on Agenda Item 4.3 In this regard, there were discussions that persisted around questions such as: — Should the cloud be handed over as it crosses the border for small, well-defined clouds? — Should the cloud be handled by multiple VAACs for big clouds? — Should a “start to finish” approach by the lead VAAC be done only in the circumstance where the cloud is dissipating as it crosses borders?

While these were all questions that needed to be addressed in terms of the operational responses by the VAACs, the answers were situation dependant. As a result, the group noted that further work was necessary to achieve consensus and to continue work in developing protocols for inclusion in Doc 9766 to illustrate how to coordinate an operational response, specifically in the case of large events. Therefore, the group formulated the following conclusion to replace/supersede Conclusion 7/15: Conclusion 8/5 – Guidance material concerning the definition of a “lead VAAC” That, the ad-hoc group consisting of Australia, Canada (Rapporteur), New Zealand, United Kingdom, United States and IATA previously established through Conclusion 7/15, be tasked to: a) progress discussions concerning the definition of a “lead VAAC” in order to achieve consensus in developing examples to illustrate how to coordinate the VAACs operational response, particularly in the case of large events, and b)

upon completion by 1 December 2014 of a), provide the Secretary with guidance material for inclusion Doc 9766, Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List .

4.3.11 With regard to the follow-up of Conclusion 7/21, the group reviewed a report presented by United States as Rapporteur of the ad-hoc group tasked to further develop the guidelines and procedures relating to collaborative decision analysis and forecasting for volcanic ash advisories, initially only between the VAACs, for future inclusion in Doc 9766. I Having completed the review, the group formulated the following conclusion accordingly:

Report on Agenda Item 4 Conclusion 8/6 —

4.3-5

Guidance for collaborative decision analysis and forecasting process for volcanic ash advisories by the VAACs

That the Secretary include the guidance for collaborative decision analysis and forecasting process contained in Appendix D to this report in the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766). 4.3.12 Additionally, the group noted that there was a need to further examine the intent of the Manual on Flight and Flow — Information for a Collaborative Environment (FF-ICE) (Doc 9965) such that for all stakeholders the process must include collaboration for all significant volcanic events, i.e. including those events which are within one VAAC area of responsibility and would encroach on the boundary of another VAAC’s area of responsibility. In this regard the meeting noted that collaboration was essential between VAACs, State volcano observatories and meteorological watch offices (MWOs) in the collaborative decision analysis and forecasting (CDAF) process. In the future it was envisaged that stakeholders (air traffic management (ATM), Aircraft Operators, etc.) will be able to participate to an ATM collaborative decision making process taking into account the outcome of the CDAF process. Therefore, the group formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 8/7 —

Expansion of the collaborative decision analysis and forecasting process to allow its application to all significant volcanic events

That an ad hoc group consisting of Australia, France, Japan, Germany (as Rapporteur), New Zealand, United Kingdom, United States, IATA, IUGG, and WMO be tasked to: a) assess the possibility for expanding the guidance for the collaborative decision analysis and forecasting (CDAF) process for volcanic ash advisories by the VAACs, to include State volcano observatories and meteorological watch offices (MWOs), in order to provide CDAF outcomes to other stakeholders; and b) report back to IAVWOPSG/9.

4.3.13 With regard to the follow-up of Conclusion 7/24, the group noted that the member from IUGG had submitted to the Secretary additional guidance material on the use of the volcano observatory notice for aviation (VONA). This material was reviewed by the Secretary and included in Doc 9766 accordingly. The group therefore agreed that the follow-up of Conclusion 7/24 could be considered complete. 4.3.14 The group reviewed a report presented by United States as a Rapporteur of the ad-hoc group tasked to develop guidance material on SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud as a follow-up of Conclusion 7/27. In this regard, the group reviewed the proposed guidance material for inclusion in the Manual of Aeronautical Meteorological Practice (Doc 8896). This guidance was based on the concept that the graphical version of the SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud is very detailed in shape and

4.3-6


dimension, and the associated plain text version was derived from describing the complex figure in seven points or less. 4.3.15 It was noted that until technology advances that would allow for detailed graphics to be data linked to the flight deck, it was to be expected that the text version of the SIGMET would be the principal manner of how air traffic services (ATS) would provide information on the volcanic ash cloud to aircraft in flight. The detailed complex graphical SIGMET, if provided by a meteorological watch office (MWO) that has the capability, would be of value and importance for pre-flight planning and inflight decision making by flight dispatchers. SIGMETs provided in a digital format using XML/GML would allow operators to ingest complex SIGMET information into their flight planning systems before departure or to advise crews in-flight of any changes or updates. It was noted that, when providing guidance for graphical SIGMET for complex volcanic ash clouds, consideration needs to be given to SIGMET in graphical format for other phenomena to ensure consistency of products. The group agreed that, in view of the nature of the material, it would be necessary to introduce an example of the SIGMET for complex volcanic ash clouds in the regional SIGMET guides rather than in the Manual of Aeronautical Meteorological Practice (Doc 8896) as was initially proposed. 4.3.16

Based in the information provided, the group formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 8/8 —

Guidance material for SIGMETs for a complex volcanic ash cloud

That the Secretary include, in coordination with the METWSG Secretary, as necessary, the proposed guidance material for the provision of SIGMET information for a complex volcanic ash cloud for its inclusion in the regional SIGMET guide as contained in Appendix E to this report. 4.3.17 In a related issue, the group noted that the model chart for SIGMET for volcanic ash in graphical format (Model SVA) in Appendix 1 to Annex 3 did not allow for the display of forecast volcanic ash, despite the fact that Table A6-1 to Annex 3 permits its use in a SIGMET message. Therefore, appreciating that the maintenance of Appendix 1 to Annex 3 was the responsibility of WMO, the group requested WMO to undertake appropriate action to update Model SVA with an example that allows for the display of observed and forecast volcanic ash in a SIGMET message. The group formulated the following conclusion accordingly: Conclusion 8/9 — Model chart for SIGMET for volcanic ash in graphical format That WMO in coordination with ICAO undertake an action to update model chart for SIGMET for volcanic ash in graphical form (Model SVA) in Annex 3 – Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation, Appendix 1, with an example that allows for the display of observed and forecast volcanic ash. Note. ― WMO is responsible for the maintenance of Appendix 1 to Annex 3.


4.3-7

4.3.18 With regard to development of a standardized international volcano database, as a follow-up of Conclusion 7/30, the group noted the work was on-going, whereby the Smithsonian Institution in coordination with the members of IUGG and Canada had worked extensively on the referred database to take into account the input from several VAACs before completing the database. 4.3.19 The group noted that the Smithsonian Institution had undertaken work to reflect a number of amendments to the database and had endeavoured to keep it up to date. This important work was greatly appreciated by the group. The group agreed, in order to give users certainty and to remove any confusion with the preceding database, that the VAACs would use the new standardized international database effective 1 March 2014. Therefore the group formulated the following decision:

Decision

8/10

—

Operational implementation of a standardized international volcano database for the preparation of volcanic ash advisories

Effective 1 March 2014, the VAACs that have not already done so implement operational use of the standardized international volcano database as provided by the Smithsonian Institution.

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5.1-1

Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW (Deliverables 01, 03, 04 and 05) 5.1: Implementation of the IAVW, including the IAVW management reports (Deliverable 01) International airways volcano watch (IAVW) management reports 5.1.1 The group recalled that it requested the VAAC Provider States to prepare concise IAVW management reports to be presented at every meeting of the IAVWOPSG (Conclusion 1/2 refers) for consideration by the group. The group reviewed the management reports, noted their contents, and discussed any issues emanating from them and agreed that they satisfied the intent of Conclusion 1/2. 5.1.2

In this regard the group noted that: a) VAAC Anchorage - VAAC Anchorage issued 177 volcanic ash advisories (VAA) during the period nominally ending 1 December 2013. Most of the VAAs were issued for Pavlof volcano, followed by Klyuchevskoy and Veniaminof volcanoes. The majority of these eruptions were less than 8 km in height (FL260) and had minor impact on air traffic on the North Pacific (NOPAC) routes and the Anchorage FIR. The exception is for Klychevskoy, where eruptions to 10KM (FL330) caused diversions of flights. b) VAAC Buenos Aires - During the period nominally ending 1 December 2013, VAAC Buenos Aires issued 88 VAAs and Volcanic Ash Graphics (VAGs) for 8 (eight) volcanoes. Two (2) annual volcanic ash SIGMET tests were run during the period November 2012 to November 2013, the first on December 2012 and the second on 7-8 December 2013.The Southern Hemisphere Ash Propagation Exercise (SHAPE) was enforced as a tool to test communications capabilities among the VAACs with responsibility for the southern hemisphere. It was successfully run between Buenos Aires and Toulouse VAACs on 31 January 2014. VAAC Buenos Aires has implemented the usage of the new standardized international volcano database identification numbers for VAACs as of 1 October 2013 (related to IAVWOPSG Conclusion 7/30). VAAC Buenos Aires in collaboration with the research community had adapted and implemented several schemes originally developed for the emission of mineral dust on the WRF-ARW/FALL3D modelling system to explore its behaviour on the transport of volcanic ash clouds. c) VAAC Darwin – VAAC Darwin issued 1096 VAA during the period nominally ending 1 December 2013. Significant eruptions during this period included a series of high altitude eruptions from the volcanoes Paluweh (Indonesia), Sinabung (Indonesia) and Manam (Papua New Guinea). Supplimentary new volcanic activity situational awareness products have been introduced including a Graphical Daily Volcanic Activity Summary (GDAS) and a weekly Volcanic Activity Summary for the VAAC Darwin area of responsibility. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the New Zealand MetService have signed memorandum of understanding formalizing the backup arrangements between VAACs Darwin and Wellington for the area south of 20° south. An exchange of letters between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Japan Meteorological Agency was conducted, formalizing the backup arrangements between Darwin and Tokyo VAACs.

5.1-2

Report on Agenda Item 5.1 d) VAAC London - VAAC London took part in 4 volcanic ash exercises during the period nominally ending 1 December 2013 and two meetings of the ICAO EUR Volcanic Ash Exercises Steering Group. Two meetings were held with VAAC Toulouse to agree a set of back up procedures and discuss technical developments. Two tranches of refresher training have been delivered to all the VAAC London forecasters in observation techniques and to undertake familiarization on the intervention tool on each shift. e) VAAC Montréal - Few eruptions of importance took place near the area of responsibility of VAAC Montréal during the period nominally ending 1 December 2013. The only one that necessitated the issuance of retransmission VAAs was that of Kluichevskoi on 19 to 20 October 2013. Retransmission VAAs were also issued for re-suspended ash from Katmai on 19 May 2013. Staff were kept busy, as usual, by participating in a series of weekly production and dissemination tests. f) VAAC Tokyo - VAAC Tokyo issued 1529 VAAs for 14 volcanoes in its area of responsibility in this period nominally ending 1 December 2013, including those for significant events caused by eruptions of Kliuchevskoi. A technical change took place in terms of its dispersion model; the old model was replaced by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Global Atmospheric Transport Model in December 2013. VAAC Tokyo has established a mutual backup arrangement with VAAC Darwin and will put it into operation on 1 March 2014. EUR/NAT Volcanic Ash Exercise in Kamchatka in 2014 (VOLKAM14) will be conducted in March 2014 with the participation of related stakeholders such as VAACs Anchorage and Tokyo, State volcano observatories, air traffic management centres, area control centres (ACCs), meteorological watch offices (MWOs) and operators. In March 2015, VAAC Tokyo will update its operating system that will enable the analysis of data from JMA’s next geostationary meteorological satellite which will be put into operation in 2015, as well as from JMA’s weather radar network. g) VAAC Toulouse – For the period nominally ending 1 December 2013, VAAC Toulouse issued 45 operational advisories (VAA/VAG) and 13 for exercise purpose. MeteoFrance has implemented competency assessment procedures according to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Standards. VAAC Toulouse forecasters participated in June/July 2013.VAACs London and Toulouse conducted three backup exercises, two in July and one in September 2013. To improve the operational coordination, two Letters of Agreement between VAAC Toulouse , the Etna Observatory, the Italian Civil Aviation Regulator, the Italian ANSP, and the meteorological watch office Milan were drafted in October 2013 and are pending signature. VAAC Toulouse presented IAVW procedures to an ASECNA Volcanic Ash Awareness Workshop (Antananarivo, Madagascar 16 to 18 October 2013).


5.1-3

h) VAAC Washington - During the period nominally ending 1 December 2013, VAAC Washington produced 1162 VAAs with 321 accompanied in the graphical format (VAG). Advisories were issued for 12 volcanoes within the VAAC Washington area of responsibility and for 4 volcanoes that produced ash that approached or entered the area of responsibility (Kliuchevskoi - VAAC Tokyo and 3 Pavlof, Veniaminof and Katmai (re-suspension) – VAAC Anchorage), and i)

VAAC Wellington – For the period nominally ending 1 December 2013, VAAs were issued for an eruption of the Gaua volcano (Vanuatu) in April 2013. The White Island volcano (New Zealand) displayed on-going unrest throughout this period with a minor eruption in August 2013. Significant seismic activity lead to a period of heightened monitoring by the VAAC for the Tinakula (Solomon Islands) and Traitor’s Head (Vanuatu) volcanoes. The additional investment, by airlines, in the Wellington VAAC from 1 July 2013 includes support for C-band Doppler weather radar detection of eruption plumes, enhanced ceilometer detection of ash cloud, and multi-spectral viewing of high resolution satellite imagery. An updated Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and MetService is now in place. In February 2013, MetService installed a new polar orbiting satellite receiver.

VAACs areas of responsibility 5.1.3 The group recalled that it tasked an ad-hoc group to develop proposals for VAAC coverage in the area north of the existing VAAC Toulouse and VAAC Tokyo areas of responsibility limiting also on 60° east with VAAC London and on 150° east with VAAC Anchorage (Conclusion 7/12 refers). In this regard, the group reviewed the progress report, presented by France as Rapporteur of the referred conclusion. 5.1.4 It was noted that the western portion of the uncovered area was adjacent to the VAAC London area of responsibility. The United Kingdom (VAAC London Provider State) proposed to enlarge the VAAC London area of responsibility to take over the part of the currently unmonitored region from 60° east to 90° east, north of 71° north (i.e. in the north of VAAC Toulouse area) and also the area to Northern Europe to cover Finland, Kobenhavn, Norway and Sweden FIRs. Enlarging the area of the VAAC London area of responsibility would provide a more uniform area of coverage and means that a handover of responsibility to VAAC Toulouse following a cessation of activity on Iceland would occur less quickly, but more efficiently than at present. The group therefore formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 8/11 — Extension of VAAC London area of responsibility That VAAC London be invited to extend its area of responsibility to Northern Europe to cover Finland, Kobenhavn, Norway and Sweden flight information regions (FIRs) and the area North of N71 between E060 and E090. 5.1.5 The above proposal would leave a smaller polar area unmonitored, with the remaining part bordering on both the VAACs Anchorage, Toulouse, and Tokyo (i.e. north of 60° north between 90° east and 150° east) . In this regard, VAAC Anchorage had been in discussion with VAAC Tokyo

5.1-4


concerning possible ways to monitor the remaining area. It was noted that the monitoring of this segment of the polar region would require scientific groundwork (observational coverage) and would require some more time. The group agreed therefore to task an ad-hoc group to prepare a report for the IAVWOPSG/9 Meeting regarding proposals for the monitoring of the referred area. The group formulated the following conclusion accordingly: Conclusion 8/12 –

Coverage of the unmonitored area north of the area of responsibility of VAAC Tokyo

That an ad-hoc group composed of VAACs Anchorage, London, Tokyo (as Rapporteur) and Toulouse: a) develop a proposal for the coverage of the unmonitored area north of N60 between E090 and E150; and b) report back to the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting.

5.1.6 In a related issue, the group reviewed a proposal from VAAC Toulouse to extend its area of responsibility southward from 60° south to the South Pole to cover the only unmonitored area in the southern hemisphere. In this regard, it was noted that in the current state, the area of responsibility of the southern hemisphere VAACs Buenos Aires, Toulouse, Darwin and Wellington cover down to the South Pole with the notable exception of the VAAC Toulouse area of responsibility that stops at 60° south. The group agreed on the proposed extension and formulated the following conclusion. Conclusion 8/13 — Extension of VAAC Toulouse area of responsibility That VAAC Toulouse be invited to extend its area of responsibility southward from S60 to the South Pole. Situational awareness for aviation operators. 5.1.7 The group recalled that Conclusion 7/13 tasked an ad-hoc group to further develop concepts regarding the provision of situational awareness information on volcanic activity relative to their area of coverage and ways it could be proactively obtained and presented to users in a consistent manner. 5.1.8 The VAACs had extensively discussed issues in summarising volcanic activity within their respective regions. It was acknowledged that there was an on-going issue whereby aviation colour codes were not always applied and where the VONA were not always produced, even where information in other forms was available and the VAACs were not generally in a position to extrapolate into terms suitable for an aviation audience. In addition, the predictive value of aviation colour codes for poorly monitored volcanoes was questionable. However, the group noted that the development of tools that summarise known past volcanic clouds analysed by VAACs was within the bounds of VAAC competence and would therefore assist the industry in overall situational awareness.


5.1-5

5.1.9 The group noted that Australia had continued to work on situational awareness tools, as reported in the VAAC Darwin management report. The group also noted that as digital databases were developed over time and product formats were standardized, it would be potentially easier to develop and share such tools. 5.1.10 In parallel, there was consideration of whether a global effort can be made that summarizes the known activity on any given day. It was proposed that a single central institution with volcano logical expertise undertake a trial of such an effort, working respectfully with State volcano observatories. It was noted that any implementation of an operational global output regarding situational awareness from such an institution does have potential to take workload off the VAACs and State volcano observatories, but would require viable funding arrangements. 5.1.11 The meeting agreed that the active contribution by VAACs and other IAVW participants towards situational awareness would also, to a large extent, assist in establishing the interactive, collaborative “best practice” process between IAVW-related offices, including State volcano observatories, MWOs and VAACs. The group agreed that further work was necessary and that Conclusion 7/13 would remain valid with the additional kind assistance of Japan. 5.1.12 It was remarked by the IUGG member that the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Institution (SI) were interested in jointly undertaking a one-year feasibility project to design a Daily Global Volcanic Activity Report (DGVAR) and evaluate the viability of its continued production. While not aimed solely at the aviation sector, a DGVAR could provide aviation users with a baseline of situational awareness about pre-eruptive and eruptive volcanic activity on a daily basis. However, it was highlighted by the IUGG member that the USGS and SI do not currently have the staffing resources needed to undertake the feasibility project. 5.1.13 The group noted that a separate discussion by the ad-hoc group addressing Conclusion 7/13 had also considered the idea of a “volcanology desk”, as discussed during the first and second meetings of the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF) in 2010 and 2011, respectively1 . It was noted that the ad-hoc group considered that such a desk would facilitate the non-operational aspects of global volcanology, including services to aviation and the establishment of appropriate arrangements, and that progress in this area would greatly assist in the issues discussed above. 5.1.14 The group was apprised of information regarding a meeting in November 2013 between a group of IUGG and IAVWOPSG members with the participant Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Secretariat at WMO headquarters in Geneva to discuss the idea. The meeting had identified a number of areas of alignment with the mission of GEO and a potentially promising path forward, although also noted that in the long term such a function probably belonged explicitly within a United Nations organization rather than within GEO. The group agreed that this was a promising angle to explore further, and considered inviting the IUGG to continue exploring this approach. Funding for a secondment towards this process seemed to be a critical issue, and the Geneva meeting considered potential sponsors for this process.

1

Task TF-VAA09 of the IVATF considered the need for the establishment of an office of volcanologists (or an office of aviation volcanology) under an international umbrella(IVATF/2 Report paragraph 5.5.9 refers).

5.1-6


5.1.15 Taking in consideration the information provided above, the group formulated the following conclusion:

Conclusion 8/14 — Assessment of the feasibility of the establishment of a volcanology desk That the members from Australia, Japan, WMO and IUGG (including WOVO), with IUGG as Rapporteur, in coordination with IATA and the Secretariat: a) continue to assess the feasibility of the establishment of a “volcanology desk” taking into consideration the functional requirements to staff a position; and b) present a progress report at the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting. Note. ― Initial informal discussions in this regard were conducted by some members of the IUGG and IAVWOPSG with the Secretariat of the Group on Earth Observations in November 2013.

Common web page for VAACs 5.1.16 With regard to the investigation of the feasibility and usefulness of a VAAC common web page intended to share dispersion model output amongst the VAACs, the group reviewed the progress report presented by Canada as Rapporteur of Conclusion 7/22. The group noted the elements that a common VAAC web page should contain, which were determined by a project between the Air Resources Laboratory in Washington, DC and the University of Maryland, tabular description of each of the models, model input parameters, access to model outputs and availability to other groups performing simulations of transport and dispersion of volcanic ash. It was also noted that there would be a need to ensure that VAAC products on such a restricted website were the authoritative products. 5.1.17 Appreciating that work in this regard was on-going, the group agreed that Conclusion 7/22 should remain valid. Roadmap for the IAVW 5.1.18 The group recalled that it formulated Conclusion 7/17 calling for the development of an IAVW roadmap for the provision of information services in support of the aviation system block upgrade (ASBU) methodology contained in the fourth edition (2013) of ICAO’s Global Air Navigation Plan, taking into consideration the draft concept of operations for the IAVW. In this regard, the group reviewed a report presented by United States as Rapporteur of Conclusion 7/17.


5.1-7

5.1.19 The group noted the information regarding the review process of the draft versions of the roadmap, whereby it had undergone several iterations within the ad-hoc group. Additionally, the group noted that, in accordance to Conclusion 7/17 b), the Secretariat had included the IAVW roadmap for consideration by the MET Divisional Meeting under agenda item 2.2 (MET/14-WP/6/CAeM-15/Doc.6 refers). 5.1.20 The meeting noted an intention of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the International Coordinating Council of Aerospace Industries Associations (ICCAIA) and the International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations (IFALPA) to provide additional input to future revisions of the roadmap. In addition, the group noted that since the roadmap was a living document there was a need to ensure its careful management and development in order to ensure its continuing integrity. 5.1.21 Concluding the discussions, the group endorsed version 1.0 of the roadmap for IAVW and formulated the following decision: Decision 8/15 — Roadmap for IAVW in support of international air navigation That the version 1.0 of the Roadmap for IAVW in Support of International Air Navigation be endorsed. Volcanic Ash-related issues presented by IFALPA at the Operations Panel (OPSP) 5.1.22 The group reviewed a report regarding volcanic ash-related issues presented by IFALPA at the Sixteenth Meeting of the Operations Panel Working Group of the Whole (OPSP/WG-WHL/16) held in Montréal, Canada, from 9 to 13 December 2013. In this regard, the group noted that, according to IFALPA, several issues of importance from a perspective of flight operations were currently not addressed by ICAO and had therefore been submitted to the referred panel for consideration. 5.1.23 The group noted that, since these issues had been already raised at the Operations Panel (OPSP), any action by the IAVWOPSG should be undertaken only after the corresponding request from the OPSP. Additionally, the group noted information provided by the Secretariat on the interaction of the various ICAO expert groups with respect to the issues raised by IFALPA. Work on re-suspended volcanic ash 5.1.24 The group recalled it formulated Conclusion 6/33 inviting VAAC Buenos Aires to compile a report on its experience on the management of re-suspended ash during the Puyehue-Cordon Caulle event. In this regard, the group reviewed a report presented by Argentina as a follow-up of Conclusion 6/33.

5.1-8


5.1.25 The group noted with satisfaction the developments by Argentina in the last five years resulting, in particular, from the eruptions of Chaitén (2008) and Puyehue-Cordón Caulle (2011) volcanoes which had posed new challenges for VAAC Buenos Aires. These development included the installation of Lidar systems, implementation of regional forecasting models and the establishment of a research group on modelling system in order to explore its behaviour on the transport of volcanic ash clouds and applied to re-suspended ash. 5.1.26 In view of the information provided, the group agreed that Conclusion 6/33 could be considered complete. Map projections used for displaying forecasts of volcanic ash clouds 5.1.27 The group reviewed a report presented by the United Kingdom which raised the awareness of errors introduced by representing areas affected by volcanic ash (or any feature) on map projections other than the projection on which the forecast was originally prepared, and that care must be duly taken. An example of the issue highlighted is presented at Appendix F to this report. The group recalled that Annex 3 — Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation specifies that for volcanic ash advisories (VAAs) the projection to be used is of the Mercator type. This in itself did not prevent the display of volcanic ash areas using other map projections (such as polar stereographic), but it meant that originators and users of such data must take great care to apply the necessary corrections when displaying such data on other map projections. 5.1.28 It was also noted that it has been identified that the Model VAG and Model SVA in Appendix 1 to Annex 3 could be misleading in their representation of straight-sided polygons on polar stereographic projections. In view of expressed concerns and the need to further consider projections other than Mercator, the group agreed that further work was necessary. The group formulated the following conclusion accordingly: Conclusion 8/16 —Update of Model VAG and Model SVA of Appendix 1 to Annex 3 That, an ad-hoc group consisting of the France, Japan, New Zealand, United Kingdom (Rapporteur), United States, IATA and WMO be tasked to: a) further progress work on updating the Model VAG and Model SVA contained in Appendix 1 to Annex 3 – Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation taking into account the need for consistency with the requirement that the volcanic ash advisory and SIGMET for volcanic ash are based upon accepted map projections, and; b) report back to the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting.


5.1-9

VAAC London and VAAC Toulouse backup procedures 5.1.29 The attention of the group was drawn to a report presented by the United Kingdom intended to update the group on the recent testing of the mutual backup arrangements between VAAC London and VAAC Toulouse. In addition, VAAC London and VAAC Toulouse coordination sought to correct an inaccuracy in the current version of the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766) concerning the WMO abbreviated header lines used by VAAC London when providing back-up for VAAC Toulouse. Having agreed that Doc 9766 warranted updating in this regard, the group formulated the following conclusion accordingly: Conclusion 8/17 – Update to Table 4-3 of Doc 9766 That, the Secretary be invited to update Table 4-3 (Volcanic ash advisory bulletin headers) of the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766) in accordance with the information provided in Appendix G to this report.

5.2-1


Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW 5.2: Improvement of the production processes, format and content of all volcanic ash related messages (Deliverable 03) Volcanic ash information beyond T+18 hours 5.2.1 The group reviewed a report presented by the United States as Rapporteur as a follow-up of Conclusion 7/28 regarding the provision of volcanic ash information beyond the current T+18 hours. In this regard, the group noted that within the existing VA advisory/VAG, the T+0 hour (analysis) was based primarily on observational information from satellite, ground-based observing systems and air reports. At increasing time steps (in particular at T+12 and T+18 hours) the forecast location of volcanic ash had to take account of output from dispersion/transport models. This introduced a number of uncertainties into the forecast including, but not limited to: a) uncertain or unknown source term (i.e. height of plume, duration of eruption, quantity of ash emitted); b) inaccuracy in the evolution of the underlying wind forecast (giving errors in ash location that increase with time); and c) inaccuracies in the physics of the dispersion/transport models such as deposition/wash out (increasing the inaccuracy of the forecast with time). In summary, the above issues meant that confidence in any forecast of volcanic ash beyond T+18 hours would probably be lower than for the period of up to T+18 hours, and that it may not therefore be prudent to make long-range operational decisions on the basis of this information. 5.2.2 The report presented by the United States proposed three options for volcanic ash information beyond T+18 hours. Option 1 was a simple depiction of an ash cloud at T+24 hours with two levels of confidence (low and medium). Option 2 was a simple trajectory forecast through to T+24 hours giving consideration for only the wind and not any dispersion. Option 3 proposed that the provision of volcanic ash information beyond T+18 hours be the responsibility of the operator which would include the option for provision by a commercial provider. 5.2.3 Further to these considerations, the attention of the group was drawn to a report by IFALPA which stated an operational requirement for extended timeframe for VA advisories/VAG beyond the current T+18 hours. Reasons for this operational requirement included the coverage of the whole duration of a significant number of long-range flights and selection of potential alternate aerodromes. 5.2.4 Concluding the evaluation of the three proposed options for volcanic ash information beyond T+18 hours, and taking into account the expressed IFALPA requirement, the group supported the option that covered the provision of simple graphical depiction of the ash cloud by the VAACs at the T+24 hours timeframe (i.e. Option 1 referenced at 5.2.2 above). The group agreed that such a T+24 forecast product would be collaboratively developed by all of the VAACs and implemented on a trial basis. The group agreed that the trial product should: a) include confidence levels for the aerial coverage of the ash cloud; b) be made available in graphical format only via the Internet web sites of each VAAC;


5.2-2

c) be made available as soon as possible for provision during a trial period that extends at least 6 months from 1 July 2014; and d) be evaluated by the users (including IATA, IFALPA and CANSO) during the trial period. 5.2.5 conclusion:

The group, taking into account the information above, formulated the following

Conclusion 8/18 — Trial product for volcanic ash information at T+24 hours That an ad-hoc group consisting of all the VAAC Provider States, with United Kingdom (VAAC London) as Rapporteur, in coordination with IATA, IFALPA, CANSO, be invited to: a) jointly develop and produce a trial T+24 hour forecast of volcanic ash clouds; and Note. ― This trial forecast product will: include confidence levels for the aerial coverage of the ash cloud, be made available in graphic format only via the VAACs Internet web site, be made available for provision during a trial period starting 1 July 2014, that extends at least 6 months, and be evaluated by the users during the trial period. b) compile the results of the trial, as well as the feedback from the users, in order to provide a report to the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting.

5.2.6 The group noted a report presented by the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) as a follow-up of Conclusion 6/23 b) concerning a list of volcanoes that threaten aviation. In this regard, the group noted that progress on Conclusion 6/23 b) was reported at the last meeting and that subsequently a proposal from the World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) for financial support to carry out the work of identifying unmonitored or under-monitored volcanoes in terms of the risks they pose to aviation had not been funded. 5.2.7 Nevertheless, the group was pleased to note a further development related to Conclusion 6/23 b) such that the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) and the Global Volcano Model network (GVM) had been commissioned through the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction to provide an assessment of volcanic risk for a Global Assessment Report 2015. Accordingly, GVM was in the process of gathering information about volcanic hazards and vulnerabilities and monitoring capacity in numerous countries with active volcanoes. Although not focused solely on aviation risk, it was expected that the collected information would be useful for producing the list called for in Conclusion 6/23 b).


5.2-3

5.2.8 The GVM project will be tracked by the IUGG representative to the IAVWOPSG and by the WMO-IUGG Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG) for any data or products that are relevant to the completion of Conclusion 6/23 b). Therefore the group agreed to keep Conclusion 6/23 valid. Evaluation of forecast confidence to meet the needs of volcanic ash related safety risk assessment 5.2.9 The group recalled that it had formulated Conclusion 7/19 tasking an ad-hoc group to define the details concerning the inclusion of confidence in VAA/VAG and possible roll-out strategies to support implementation and to decide where information and guidance material for VAACs and users would be made available. In this regard, the group noted a progress report presented by Canada as Rapporteur of the ad-hoc group tasked to address Conclusion 7/19. 5.2.10 As the group was aware, this subject had been addressed at the first VAAC Best Practices Seminar (13 to 14 February 2012, Montréal) and further developed at the second such seminar (12 to 13 June 2012, Montréal). Several ideas as to how to express confidence had come out of both these events, specifically at the time of observation of the volcanic ash cloud. 5.2.11 The group noted the discussion about situations when a VAAC can or cannot rely on reports that an eruption has occurred and whether or not VAA/VAGs should be issued if volcanic ash is only present on a local scale (and hence at low levels). 5.2.12 Additionally, the group noted a suggestion made by the ad hoc group that the remarks section of the VAA/VAG could be used to express confidence in the position of the VA at T+0. The details as to how to express this confidence could be specified in Doc 9766 and possibly Doc 9974 after discussion and agreement by the VAACs. In this regard, while some VAACs already include comments about their confidence in the remarks section, some reservations were expressed about having to do so if this were to be based on volcanic ash that had not been seen in satellite imagery, or uniquely based on model output. 5.2.13 To make progress on this topic, the ad-hoc group had felt that it was still necessary to obtain additional feedback from users as to where the expression of confidence should be indicated, decide on how confidence would be expressed (e.g. high, medium or low), as well as the thresholds that needed to be met for a VAAC forecaster to choose one of these confidence levels possible implementation dates. Therefore, the group agreed that Conclusion 7/19 remain valid. 5.2.14 In related issues, the group recalled that it had formulated Conclusion 7/20 tasking all VAACs to determine the scientific limitations for assigning confidence to volcanic ash analysis and forecasts and to determine an appropriate product(s) based on the outcomes of Conclusion 7/20, part a) that would help inform users safety risk assessments. 5.2.15 The group noted a report presented by Australia as the Rapporteur of the ad-hoc group on Conclusion 7/20 titled “Assessing VA Advisory Quality” from VAAC Darwin, which took some of the discussion themes from previous VAAC Best Practice Seminars, and focused on the question of evidence. It was noted that through the VAAC best practices process, IAVW participants had sought to standardize the response of VAACs with a particular focus placed upon common methodologies for the discernment and forecasting of volcanic ash. It was noted that in order for harmonization to occur, it was first necessary to characterize the evidence sources upon which the VA advisory production process is based. The report sought to make the treatment of evidence systematic, as an underpinning to the next steps.


5.2-4

5.2.16 Concluding the discussion, the group agreed that it was necessary to undertake operational trials involving all of the VAAC Provider States. It was agreed that such trials should encompass the production of an evidence check-list and the sharing of this check-list amongst the VAACs, and also include a high/low confidence level within the remark (RMK) section of the VAA. The group agreed the following definitions: — High confidence - Strong observational evidence of volcanic ash and high confidence in model(s) prediction resulting in low forecast uncertainty. — Low confidence - Weak observational evidence of volcanic ash and/or low confidence in model(s) prediction resulting in high forecast uncertainty. 5.2.17

In view of the foregoing, the group formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 8/19 — Trial of operational allocation of forecast confidence in the production of VA advisories That all VAAC Provider States, with New Zealand (VAAC Wellington) as Rapporteur, in coordination with IATA and IFALPA, be invited to: a) undertake a collaborative operational trial of the provision of confidence information in the remarks section of VA advisories, and b) report progress and experience to the IAVWOPSG/9 Meeting. Note. ― It is expected that the confidence information will reflect the principles of best practices as presented by VAAC Darwin at IAVWOPSG/8.

Reporting of no volcanic ash 5.2.18 The group reviewed a report presented by France as the Rapporteur on Conclusion 7/29 concerning the reporting of no volcanic ash. The group recalled that the said conclusion tasked an ad-hoc group to further assess the feasibility and means to improve reporting of volcanic ash to VAACs including the reporting of “no volcanic ash” in areas forecast to contain a volcanic ash cloud. In this regard, the group reviewed proposals contained in the progress report detailing possible ways to address the improvement of the reporting of no volcanic ash which included, inter alia, a proposal to reach the VAAC through the airline operations centre sending (by e-mail) the report received from the aircraft. 5.2.19 In this regard, the group agreed to include Guidance in this regard (at a new paragraph 4.6 in the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766) as described in Appendix H to this report. 5.2.20 Additionally, the group concurred that a number of other proposals contained in the progress report needed more work, and must therefore be discussed in further detail by the IAVWOPSG; also this may require additional coordination with air traffic management (ATM).

Report on Agenda Item 5.2 5.2.21 conclusions:

5.2-5

After review and discussion of the above information, the group formulated the following

Conclusion 8/20 — Dissemination of aircraft reports of volcanic ash to VAACs That the Secretary update the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch – Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766) by adding a new paragraph 4.6 concerning the dissemination of aircraft reports of volcanic ash to VAACs as described in Appendix H to this report. Conclusion

8/21

—

Further improvement of the dissemination of aircraft reports of volcanic ash to VAACs

That an ad hoc group consisting of VAAC Provider States, with France (VAAC Toulouse) as Rapporteur, IATA, ICCAIA, IFALPA and WMO, in coordination with the Secretary, be tasked to: a) further assess the feasibility and means to improve the dissemination of aircraft reports of volcanic ash to volcanic ash advisory centres (VAACs); and b)

report back to the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting.

5.2.22 The group noted, with satisfaction, work being undertaken by France, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom regarding a detailed process for the exchange of observational and dispersion modelling data on volcanic ash amongst participating countries.


5.3-1

Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW 5.3: Issuance of a special air-report related to the smell of sulphur (Deliverable 04)

5.3.1 The group noted that that no papers had been submitted on the subject of the issuance of a special air-report related to the smell of sulphur. The group agreed therefore to defer consideration until the next meeting.


5.4-1

Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW 5.4: Updating of the worldwide ash encounter database (including the model VAR) (Deliverable 05) 5.4.1 The group noted that that no papers had been submitted on the subject of the updating of the worldwide ash encounter database. The group agreed therefore to defer consideration until the next meeting. ————————


6.1-1

Agenda Item 6: Development of the IAVW (Deliverables 06, 07 and 10) 6.1: Improvement of tools for detecting and forecasting volcanic ash (Deliverable 06) Aerosol observation capabilities 6.1.1 The group reviewed a progress report on aerosol observation capabilities presented by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as Rapporteur of the ad-hoc group established by Conclusion 7/23. In this regard, the group reviewed the summary of existing aerosol monitoring capabilities that could be beneficially employed in the framework of a composite observing system for volcanic ash in support of the IAVW. 6.1.2 It was noted that a survey of LIDAR instruments and ceilometers worldwide was initiated by WMO in 2011 within the framework of the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Aerosol LIDAR Observation Network (GALION) project. Up to December 2013, a data base of about 2120 instruments had been created and an interactive web page hosted by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) had been set up, showing the global distribution of instruments and offering links to quick look data and station information pages (see http://www.dwd.de/ceilomap). 6.1.3 The group reviewed the extensive information provided by WMO regarding several developments in this matter which included, inter alia, the DWD ceilometer network, the European Aerosol Research Lidar Network to Establish an Aerosol Climatology (EARLINET); the European Meteorological Services Network (EUMETNET) project called E-PROFILE; the Irish automatic LIDAR network (recently established for VA monitoring) and the French operational Vaisala CL31 ceilometers networks. 6.1.4 The group expressed satisfaction with the report and further requested WMO to report back when an update was available. Several members indicated that they could assist WMO with the work needed. Additionally, it was noted that significant investment had been made by Iceland and others into plume source observation. WMO noted that there was a need to coordinate plume observation efforts. In this regard, it was recognized that the WMO-IUGG Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG) would continue to assist with coordination of the scientific effort. 6.1.5 The group was also provided with information on the progress being made on matters referred to the WMO-IUGG VASAG by the IAVWOPSG. In this regard, a progress report from the WMO representative of the VASAG provided information on the activities being undertaken to follow up Conclusions 7/18 concerning reducing dispersion model output uncertainty, Conclusion 7/31 concerning validation dataset for benchmarking current and future satellite based retrieval schemes, Conclusion 7/32 concerning scientific investigations into volcanic cloud thickness and stratification, and Conclusion 7/33 concerning the provision of advice on appropriate methods for assessing aviation hazards and risks. The group welcomed the information provided and requested that the WMO-IUGG VASAG should continue its work on these science matters.

6.1-2 6.1.6

Report on Agenda Item 6.1 Therefore the group formulated the following conclusion: Conclusion 8/22 —Progress regarding aerosol observation capabilities and related activities That the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG) be invited to: a) further progress aerosol observation capabilities and related activities, such as improved volcanic ash monitoring, as part of the on-going science work items relating to volcanic cloud thickness and stratification and reducing dispersion model output uncertainty; and b) report to the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting on progress.

Satellite-based volcanic ash detection inter-comparison activity 6.1.7 The group noted information provided by WMO concerning the plans for a satellite-based volcanic cloud retrieval inter-comparison activity as part of a WMO-sponsored Sustained Coordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Nowcasting (SCOPE-Nowcasting) initiative intended to improve the consistency of quantitative volcanic ash products from satellites. In this regard, it was noted that the initiative aims to improve rapid access to satellite data by Member States, and at improved confidence in products. 6.1.8 The group noted that volcanic ash was one of four priority themes of the SCOPE-Nowcasting initiative and that a meeting in November 2013 of a SCOPE-Nowcasting Ad-hoc Steering Group had agreed on an action plan for an inter-comparison activity. The group noted that the referred action plan had been reviewed and endorsed by the WMO-IUGG VASAG also in November 2013. Quantitative verification of volcanic ash dispersion model 6.1.9 With regard to the research on dispersion model uncertainty requested by Conclusion 7/18, the group noted a method being developed by VAAC Tokyo to verify the accuracy of volcanic ash dispersion models. In this regard, it was noted that the method introduced a quantitative verification method which could be applied to issues regarding the development of the IAVW, such as preliminary assessment of new models or evaluation of different models when conducting benchmark tests. 6.1.10 The group noted that, although further work was needed, this method could contribute to the enhancement of the model accuracy, allowing for the parameter tuning or comparison of models.


6.1-3

Update on research testing of volcanic ash ingestion into an aircraft turbine engine 6.1.11 The group was provided an update by the United States regarding planning efforts which are currently underway to test a high bypass turbine engine while it ingests volcanic ash. The group noted that aircraft operations and turbine-engine maintenance procedures will be evaluated after the test results are assessed. 6.1.12 Additionally the meeting requested and was provided with an excellent informal/ad-hoc presentation to the group by the ICCAIA representative on various perspectives regarding the evaluation of volcanic ash and gas impacts on modern jet turbine engines (see http://www.bata.uk.com/wpcontent/uploads/2013/10/Ash-5-Rory-Clarkson.pdf). In this regard the meeting deeply appreciated the technical insights provided. Use of infrasound data in support of the IAVW 6.1.13 The group recalled that it had formulated Conclusion 7/36 requesting an ad-hoc group to pursue, in support of the IAVW, the development and testing of a prototype real-time “significant” eruption notification system for the VAACs using infrasound data and also to continue the related collaborative work between all the VAACs and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). 6.1.14 In this regard, the group noted a progress report presented by France as Rapporteur of Conclusion 7/36. The report focussed on the work on a proof of concept for notification of possible volcanic activity based on infrasound observations being developed by the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infra-structure in Europe (ARISE) which complements the collaborative project initiated between VAAC Toulouse and the CTBTO International Data Centre (IDC) following the Fourth WMO International Workshop on Volcanic Ash (Rotorua, New Zealand, March 2007). 6.1.15 It was noted in the report that a proof of concept had been based on automatic queries to the infrasound database and issuance of related messages of detections possibly associated to volcanic activity. The proposed message was intended to contain primary information on infrasound observations based on detected signal features (e.g. detected time, signal duration, azimuth, frequency and amplitude) and estimation of acoustic source amplitudes which are key features for estimating the eruption time and released energy. It was further noted that advanced products such as daily detection network performance maps and a confidence score associated to detected infrasound arrivals may be proposed to complete the message and would provide the VAAC with new confidence indicators associated to the results. 6.1.16 In accordance to the views of the ad-hoc group, it was recognized that the ARISE project gave new impetus to the collaborative work between CTBTO and VAAC Toulouse and may, in turn, contribute to mitigate the impact of volcanic ash clouds on aviation. Therefore, the group agreed to keep Conclusion 7/36 valid and also welcomed the kind offer of the United Kingdom to join the ad hoc group established.


6.2-1

Agenda Item 6: Development of the IAVW (Deliverables 06, 07 and 10) 6.2: Refinement of volcanic ash deposition information in a suitable aeronautical message (Deliverable 07) 6.2.1 The group noted that that no papers had been submitted on the subject of the refinement of volcanic ash deposition information in a suitable aeronautical message. 6.2.2 Nevertheless, the group noted recent considerations of other ICAO expert groups on this issue. In this regard, the Tenth Meeting of the Aeronautical Meteorological Observations and Forecasts Study Group (AMOFSG/10), when dealing with issues related to the reporting of recent and present weather and further to discussions at IAVWOPSG/5, considered the need to include a new present weather descriptor for volcanic ash fall out and recent volcanic ash fall out descriptor in METAR and SPECI and, if needed, a runway state group that enables volcanic ash deposition to be reported in METAR and SPECI as supplementary information. Additionally, AMOFSG/10 reviewed a report which had been prepared outlining the current observation procedures employed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) when volcanic ash has fallen or is falling at the aerodrome. In this regard, the AMOFSG tasked the Secretary to consult with the Runway Friction Task Force (FTF) of the Aerodromes Panel (AP) on the need for the reporting of volcanic ash deposition as supplementary information in METAR and SPECI and, on completion if necessary, an ad-hoc group to develop a plan for the establishment of ICAO provisions and/or guidance pertaining to the provision of volcanic ash deposition reporting at aerodromes (AMOFSG Action Agreed 10/7 refers). 6.2.3 The group was pleased to note that consequently the Secretariat, as a follow-up of Action Agreed 10/7, had undertaken the referred consultation with the FTF of the AP. A synopsis of the response received from the FTF in response to AMOFSG Action Agreed 10/7 was included in AMOFSG Memo 59 available on the AMOFSG website (http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/AMOFSG/). The reply received from the FTF included the following: “ FTF/9 did not identify any special need for the reporting of volcanic ash deposition information in aerodrome routine meteorological and aerodrome special meteorological reports. Nor did the FTF/9 identify the need to incorporate volcanic ash in the future global reporting format. However, if it should be reported in the proposed global reporting format it could be based upon the classification used by Airbus in which dry volcanic ash should be treated as a wet runway, wet ash as slush.” “The FTF did not discuss the volcanic ash issue in light of METAR or SPECI messages. However, the character of discussion was such that it was the opinion of the FTF that it already provided “warnings” and gave the necessary alert prior to entering into a situation where the aeroplane might be exposed to degraded braking action due to presence of volcanic ash on the airport movement area for which the aeroplane manufacturers should be contacted for specific guidance.” 6.2.4 In view of the foregoing, the group (IAVWOPSG) noted that it was clearly stated that, from the perspective of the FTF of the Aerodromes Panel, that there were no operational requirements for the reporting of volcanic ash deposition as supplementary information in aerodrome routine meteorological and aerodrome special meteorological reports. The group therefore agreed to no longer pursue this issue at the present time.


6.3-1

Agenda Item 6: Development of the IAVW (Deliverables 06, 07 and 10) 6.3: Health risks to aircraft occupants posed by sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere (Deliverable 10) 6.3.1 With regard to health risks to aircraft occupants posed by sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere, the attention of the group was drawn to the fourteenth meeting of the 193th Session of the Air Navigation Commission. In this regard, during the review of the report of the IAVWOPSG/7 Meeting, the Commission queried the appropriateness of the description of the new task “Health risks to aircraft occupants posed by sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere” (Conclusion 7/34 refers). The Commission’s view was that the description of the new task appeared to be medical in nature and therefore proposed the new item to be resubmitted as a job-card form to represent the proposed work more clearly and precisely. The group noted the resulting ANC-Working Group on Strategic Review and Planning (SRP) Job-card IAVWOPSG001 and that appropriate references would be included by the Secretariat under Agenda Item 9. As a follow-up of IAVWOPSG Conclusion 7/34, and now the related job card, the Secretary had initiated coordination with the ICAO Flight Operations (OPS) Section, requesting the referral of the said conclusion to the expert group, or groups, that in its view will be in a position to provide the information requested by the IAVWOPSG conclusion. It was appreciated that coordination with the Aviation Medicine (MED) Section would be required. The group was informed that work in this regard remained on-going and therefore that Conclusion 7/34 remained open. 6.3.2 In a related issue, the United Kingdom informed the group that its government had added to its national risk register the risk of an effusive (gas rich) volcanic eruption. Alongside the risk from volcanic ash, the United Kingdom government needed to consider the implications of a large, gas rich eruption in Iceland on public health, transport and the environment. In this regard, initial modelling had suggested that the gases from a volcanic eruption could exist in high concentrations in United Kingdom and northern European airspace, which could potentially have an impact on aviation, and that further work was being conducted to fully understand the scale of any potential disruption. As a consequence, the United Kingdom expressed a need for ICAO to develop clear international guidance on the safety of flying into volcanic gas plumes and the standard procedures to adopt under these circumstances to ensure that any disruption is minimized as much as possible. 6.3.3 Additionally, the group was informed by the United Kingdom that research work in this regard was being conducted and would be presented to the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting. ———————


7-1

Agenda Item 7: Improved notification concerning the release of radioactive material into the atmosphere (Deliverable 8) 7.1 The group recalled that it was tasked to assist the Secretariat regarding the development of international arrangements for the monitoring and provision of warnings to aircraft in flight of radioactive material and toxic chemical clouds released into the atmosphere. 7.2 Draft concept of operations for the provision of information about the release of radioactive material into the atmosphere in support of international air navigation 7.3 The group recalled that at the seventh meeting of the International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG/7) it tasked an ad-hoc group to further develop the draft concept of operations in support of international air navigation to provide information on the release of radioactive material into the atmosphere (Conclusion 7/37). This was with a view to having a mature proposal in time for the ICAO Meteorology Divisional Meeting in July 2014. The group recalled that Conclusion 7/37 also called for an assessment of the provision of information and guidance, as well as for consultation with WMO (through the Expert Team on Emergency Response Activities (ET-ERA) including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)) to evaluate the possible role of WMO regional specialized meteorological centres (RSMCs) in the provision of guidance on the location and movement of radioactive material in the atmosphere. Lastly, Conclusion 7/37 had requested that the ad-hoc group review the provisions of Annex 3 – Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation and the Manual on Volcanic Ash, Radioactive Material and Toxic Chemical Clouds (Doc 9691) regarding radioactive material. 7.4 In this regard, the group reviewed a progress report presented by Canada as Rapporteur of Conclusion 7/37. The group noted that insofar as the ad-hoc group was concerned paragraph 1.3 of the concept of operations satisfactorily identified the key elements to be addressed in the short term, namely the need for guidance material to help meteorological watch offices (MWOs) prepare SIGMET information for radioactive clouds and a definition of what constitutes a radiation hazard to aviation. The group noted information provided on a consultation process established between the IAVWOPSG ad-hoc group, the WMO ET-ERA and with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Inter-Agency Committee on Radiological and Nuclear Emergencies (IACRNE). Four specific questions had been addressed to IACRNE regarding the appropriateness of using the prediction of a total dose rate in the radioactive cloud SIGMET, dose rate threshold value, realistic source term to be used and ways to estimate the total dose rate. 7.5 The group noted that the above points prompted discussions at an IACRNE meeting in December 2011 which tasked an ad-hoc group (of IACRNE) to define a “qualitative and / or quantitative criteria triggering the issuance of a SIGMET for radioactive cloud”. In this regard, without prejudging on or precluding what IACRNE might recommend, informal discussions held between the IAEA, ICAO and WMO indicated that it may be difficult to obtain practical guidance on methods of dose calculations and definition of a “danger”' threshold value based on modelling in the short lapse of time needed by MWOs to issue SIGMET information. This was likely true even if the idea of dose calculation as presented in the draft concept of operations was correct from a scientific perspective.

7-2


7.6 According to the ad-hoc group of IACRNE, another option might be to consider the adoption of a much simpler criteria for radioactive cloud SIGMETs based solely on a pre-defined radius around the location where the release occurs (either at all flight levels or, more realistically, below a certain flight level). In this regard, the group noted the establishment of an urgent protective action zone as recommended by IAEA in its requirements document IAEA GS-R-2 Preparedness and Response for a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency, which is 5 to 30 km radius. The rationale for the 30 km radius for a significant accident was that, as of the year 2000, no excess solid cancers had been observed among the approximately 200,000 people who performed recovery operations within the 30 km zone in 1986 to 1987 where the highest doses were received following the Chernobyl accident. 7.7 The group was also pleased to note that at a WMO ET-ERA meeting in October 2013, it had been agreed that RSMCs Vienna and Montreal, in coordination with the IAEA, would conduct atmospheric transport model simulation in 2014 to evaluate the possible vertical extent of a radiological cloud release based on a range of scenarios (Action 16 of the referred WMO ET-ERA meeting). The group was informed that RSMC Offenbach was likely to assist in this activity. 7.8 In view of the information provided above, the group noted that work remains on-going by both the WMO ET-ERA and the IACRNE (ad-hoc group thereof) concerning the issues highlighted by Conclusion 7/37. The outcome of this work would have a considerable impact on the concept of operations if the dose calculation approach was not favoured; also parts b), c) and d) were highly dependent on what would be recommended. Therefore, the group agreed that Conclusion 7/37 remain open. Additionally, in view of the workload of the member from Canada, the group welcomed a kind offer from the United States to act henceforth as the rapporteur for the Conclusion 7/37 ad hoc group.

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8-1

Agenda Item 8: Matters related to the assessment of the need to provide information on solar radiation storms and other bio-hazards (Deliverable 09) 8.1 The group recalled that at its seventh meeting (IAVWOPSG/7) it had tasked an ad-hoc group to review the Space Weather Effects in Regard to International Air Navigation document (available on the IAVWOPSG website) including its retitling to Space Weather Impacts on International Air Navigation to ensure that its content supported a proposed amendment to Annex 3 — Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation relating to space weather (Conclusion 7/39 refers). The group had also tasked an ad-hoc group to review the draft Concept of Operations for the Provision of Space Weather Information in Support of International Air Navigation (Conclusion 7/40 refers). In these respects, the group reviewed reports presented by the United Kingdom as Rapporteur of Conclusions 7/39 and 7/40. Additionally, the group noted information provided by the WMO and the United States regarding the future provision of space weather services to aviation. 8.2

Space weather impacts on international air navigation

8.3 With regard to the progress report on the follow-up of Conclusion 7/39 (space weather impacts on international air navigation), the group noted that, according the views of the ad hoc group, the Space Weather Impacts on International Air Navigation document required a substantive re-write to bring it into alignment with the current Manual on Volcanic Ash, Radioactive Material and Toxic Chemical Clouds (Doc 9691). It was noted that a substantive re-write of the introductory chapters required resources that were beyond those available in the timeframe between the IAVWOPSG/7 and IAVWOPSG/8 meetings. 8.4 The ad-hoc group was also of the view that further work in re-writing the document would provide improved information on current and potential future prediction capabilities, the potential limitations of predictability (due to limited understanding of the physical processes on the sun) and, potentially, a set of scenarios that could be used by operators, flight crew and air traffic management (ATM) as a basis for planning mitigations and/or operations, under an appropriate safety risk assessment, in potentially severe space-weather-situations. 8.5 The group also noted that, in the opinion of the ad-hoc group, it appeared prudent to wait until the ICAO Meteorology Divisional Meeting in July 2014 had considered the proposed amendment to Annex 3 concerning the provision of space weather services to international air navigation before proceeding (or not) with a re-write of the referred document. Having considered the amendment proposal concerning the introduction of space weather services for international air navigation, it was to be expected that the Meteorology Divisional Meeting would formulate a recommendation that the proposals be included as part of Amendment 77 to Annex 3 (with intended applicability in November 2016). 8.6 Notwithstanding this situation, the group agreed that it should progress the matters called for by Conclusion 7/39 as far as possible in the meantime. The group therefore supported a proposal to develop a space weather manual intended to support the referred (future) ICAO provisions. 8.7 The group therefore agreed that Conclusion 7/39 should be superseded by a new conclusion as follows:

8-2


Conclusion 8/23 — Development of a manual on space weather for international air navigation That an ad hoc group consisting of Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, United States (as Rapporteur), IATA, ICCAIA, IFALPA and WMO, be tasked to: a) develop a Manual on space weather for international air navigation that should include information to support the required space weather services and their associated effects and impacts on international air navigation; and b) provide a draft to the IAVWOPSG/9 meeting.

8.8 Draft concept of operations for the provision of space weather information in support of international air navigation 8.9 With regard to a draft concept of operations for the provision of space weather information in support of international air navigation, the group reviewed the information contained in a report presented by the United Kingdom as the Rapporteur on Conclusion 7/40 b). The group noted that the ad-hoc group had received, from IAVWOPSG members, over 100 comments on the draft version 2.2 of the concept of operations. Additionally, substantive comments were received from an Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) of WMO. Therefore, after a further round of comments on a new version which incorporated all the comments received (version 2.3), the ad-hoc group prepared version 3.0 for the consideration by the IAVWOPSG. IFALPA and Japan on behalf of the Asia-Pacific Ionospheric Studies Task Force (APAC-ISTF) provided the group with additional comments and information that were duly noted. 8.10 The group noted that, according to the views of the ad-hoc group, there was a need to highlight the problem that is being addressed (a problem statement), user issues and desired outcomes, the essential capabilities that are required in order to develop products or services, institutional arrangements, opportunities and barriers to implementation as well as a paradigm as to how the service could be implemented once all of the matters outlined had been addressed into the environment in which it was expected to function. 8.11 In a related issue, the group noted suggestions presented by the International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations (IFALPA) to improve version 3.0 of the Concept of Operations. According to IFALPA the suggestions would make future iterations of the document of greater assistance to airspace users, in particular flight crews.


8-3

8.12 The group noted that the concept of operations would be considered as a living document that would evolve as technology and operational requirements evolve. The document provided a baseline for the provision of space weather information to the international aviation community. The group endorsed version 3.0 of the concept of operations , recalling that it had been included in the working documentation for the ICAO Meteorology Divisional Meeting in July 2014 (MET/14-IP/3 refers). Therefore, the group formulated the following decision: Decision 8/24 — Concept of operations for the provision of space weather information in support of international air navigation That the version 3.0 of the Concept of Operations for space weather information in support of international air navigation be endorsed. 8.13

Space weather services to aviation

8.14 Further to the foregoing, the group noted information provided by the WMO ICTSW regarding the proposed ICAO provisions for space weather as part of the draft Amendment 77 to Annex 3, and preliminary guidance from ICTSW for an effective organization of such services. The group was informed that the ICTSW currently involves space weather experts from twenty-two States and seven international organizations, including ICAO, and serves as the advisory body of WMO for the definition of future operational space weather services. 8.15 According to the views of the ICTSW, in broad terms, the proposed ICAO provisions were considered an appropriate basis to define an initial space weather information service. However, the group noted suggestions made in a report of the ICTSW, through WMO, aimed at improving the proposals. 8.16 In addition, the group noted preliminary guidance provided by WMO (ICTSW) regarding the provision of operational space weather information in response to the future ICAO requirements. It was noted that it would be a complex activity which would include a number of high-level processes such as, inter alia, real-time observation, analysis, forecasting and dissemination, non-real time post-event analysis, impact characterization, climatology, user training; standardization, quality monitoring, user feedback analysis and research and development, infrastructure maintenance. The group reviewed the extensive information provided by WMO (ICTSW) on the high-level processes referred to above. 8.17 The group also noted that, according to the views of the ICTSW, considering the four types of space weather events mentioned in the proposed provisions for space weather, different cases would be considered as follows: a) solar radiation storms and solar flares are large scale phenomena which can best be addressed at the global scale; and b) geomagnetic storms and ionospheric disturbances are addressed at the global scale at the predictive stage (a few hours or more), but should additionally be addressed at the regional level for alerts and warnings at shorter timescales and for monitoring the observation of the actual event.

8-4


8.18 In a related issue, the group noted information in a report provided by the United States which examined the structure of today’s regional and global providers of meteorological service for international air navigation (specifically the volcanic ash advisory centres (VAACs), the tropical cyclone advisory centres (TCACs) and the world area forecast centres (WAFCs) as potential models for space weather services. 8.19 The group noted that, according to the views of the United States, experience with the VAACs had shown the challenges in harmonizing information from multiple sources to provide a consistent message, especially in situations where the ash cloud transcends VAACs areas of responsibility. Experience with the WAFCs had shown that, while the existence of two centres was necessary to ensure back-up and continuity of operations, the required harmonization could be time consuming and costly but, harmonization between two centres could be accomplished more easily than between several centres. With this in mind, the United States was of the view that there should be no more than two global centres responsible for generating services that pertain to the large-scale, global aspects of space weather. 8.20 The group noted that taking into account the expected recommendation by the Meteorology Divisional Meeting of inclusion of the proposals for the provision of space weather services to international air navigation as part of Amendment 77 to Annex 3, it would be necessary that the ICAO planning and implementation regional groups (PIRGs) start the process of identification of the regional requirements taking into account the advice of WMO. Additionally, the group was of the opinion that there would be a need to define the minimum functional requirements of future centres for the provision of space weather information services. This process would assisting in determining the future structure, whether it be global, regional or a combination, for the provision of space weather information services (by November 2016) after the approval by the ICAO Council in early 2016 of Amendment 77 to Annex 3.

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9-1

Agenda Item 9: Future work programme 9.1

Terms of reference

9.2 With regard to the terms of reference (Appendix I refers), the group agreed that there was no need to introduce changes at this meeting. 9.3

Work programme (deliverables)

9.4 With regard to the work programme the group noted that the changes suggested at the IAVWOPSG/7 meeting were endorsed by the Air Navigation Commission. 9.5 The group noted the reference to Job-card IAVWOPSG001 included in Task IAVWOPSG-10, as a follow-up of IAVWOPSG Conclusion 7/34 and the referred Job-card endorsed by the Air Navigation Commission. 9.6 The group reviewed the work programme and proposed changes, based on the discussions under Agenda Items 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8. On the completion of this review, the group formulated the following decision: Decision 8/25 — Update of the work programme of the IAVWOPSG That the work programme (“ deliverables”) of the IAVWOPSG be replaced with that shown in Appendix J to this report. ————————


10-1

Agenda Item 10: Any other business 10.1

Issues related to the on-going eruption of the Indonesian volcano Kelut

10.1.1 Noting the on-going eruption of the Indonesian volcano Kelut where there were reports that a number of aircraft have encountered the ash cloud during the early stages of the eruption, the group requested the representative of the ICCAIA to coordinate the collection and sharing of engineering and/or technical data from the aircraft concerned to help improve the understanding of volcanic cloud related impacts on aircraft components including engines. The group formulated the following conclusion accordingly: Conclusion 8/26 — Collection and sharing of engineering and/or technical data from aircraft encountering the Kelut volcanic ash cloud That ICCAIA be invited to: a) coordinate the collection and sharing of engineering and/or technical data from at least one aircraft that encountered the Kelut volcanic ash cloud in Indonesia during February 2014 to help improve the understanding of volcanic cloud related impacts on aircraft components including engines, and b) report on the findings to the IAVWOPSG/9 Meeting.

10.1.2

VAAC authoritative voice threat

10.1.3 The United Kingdom sought clarification on what the VAAC’s position should be when approached to participate in activities that could potentially undermine the position of the VAACs as the authoritative, designated providers of volcanic ash advisory information to international civil aviation. The group agreed that further information should always be sought in order to better quantify any potential threat and that the VAACs should coordinate with one another, as appropriate, to derive a collective authoritative response to any such approaches. 10.1.4 Date and venue of the next meeting of the IAVWOPSG and the Seventh WMO International Workshop on Volcanic Ash 10.1.5 The meeting noted that, in principle, in accordance with the rotation scheme for the IAVWOPSG meetings, the next meeting (i.e. IAVWOPSG/9) should be convened in the European and North Atlantic Regional Office in Paris, France, in September 2015. However, the group felt that it was prudent to wait for the outcome of the Meteorology (MET) Divisional Meeting (Montréal, Canada, 7 to 18 July 2014) concerning the expert group (or groups) that may be required to progress international airways volcano watch (IAVW) related work, before taking any decision in this regard. Therefore, the group agreed on the deferral of the consideration of this issue until the review of the recommendations of the MET Divisional Meeting by the Air Navigation Commission during its 197th session.

10-2


10.1.6 In line with the above reasoning, WMO as the lead organization of the periodic International Workshops on Volcanic Ash, agreed to defer the consideration of the date and venue of the Seventh International Workshop on Volcanic Ash, which was going to be held back-to-back with the IAVWOPSG/9 until the issues highlighted in paragraph 10.1.5 above have been resolved. ————————

Appendix A to the Report

A-1

APPENDIX A LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

ARGENTINA Ms. Miriam Andrioli Member

Servicio Meteorológico Nacional 25 de Mayo 658 (1002) Buenos Aires Argentina

Tel.: +54 11 5167 6707 Fax: +54 11 5167 6709 E-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Andrew Tupper Member

Centre Director Bureau National Operations Centre Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289 Melbourne VIC 3001 Australia

Tel.: Fax: Cell: E-mail:

Ms. Sue O’Rourke Advisor

Section Head, Meteorological Authority Tel: +61 3 9669 4662 Strategy, Parliamentary, International & Fax: +61 3 9669 4473 Communication Branch Cell: +61 418 234 138 Australian Bureau of Meteorology E-mail: [email protected] GPO Box 1289, Melbourne VIC 3001 [email protected] Australia

Mr. Emile Jansons Advisor

Manager Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre Australian Bureau of Meteorology Northern Territory Regional Office PO Box 40050 Casuarina NT 0811 Australia


Mr. Scott Duffy Advisor

Safety Performance Management Specialist Safety Systems Office Civil Aviation Safety Authority GPO Box 2005 CANBERRA ACT 2601 Australia

Tel.: +61 7 3144 7412 E-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Mike Terkilsen Advisor

Dr. Mike Terkilsen IPS / Space Weather Services Bureau of Meteorology PO Box 1386 HAYMARKET NSW 1240 Australia

Tel: +61 2 9213 8044 Fax: +61 2 9213 8060 E-mail: [email protected]

Operations Branch Canadian Meteorological Centre Environment Canada 2121 North Service Road Dorval, Quebec Canada H9P 1J3


AUSTRALIA +61 3 9669 4030 +61 3 9662 1222 +61 0 417 475 269 [email protected]

CANADA Mr. Dov Bensimon Member

A-2


CHILE Jefe Sección de Meteorologíca Aeronáutica Direccíon General de Aeronáutica CivilDGAC Av. Portales No. 3450, Estacíon Central Santiago, Vhile CP 9170018

Tel.: +562 436 4541 Fax.: +562 437 8212 E-mail: [email protected]

Mr. Liu Peng Member

Engineer Director of Meteorological Department North-East Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau, CAAC 3 Xiacheyan Street, Dadong District Shenyang, Liaoning Province 110043 China

E-mail: [email protected]

Mr. Gu Lei Advisor

CAAC Engineer Aviation Meteorological Centre Air Traffic Management Bureau, CAAC P.O. Box 2272, Shilihe, Chaoyang District Beijing 100122 China


Ms. LAU Sum-yee, Sharon Advisor

Assistant Director (Aviation Weather Service) Hong Kong Observatory 134A Nathan Road Kowloon Hong Kong

Tel : +852 2926 8232 Fax : +852 2311 9448 E-mail : [email protected]

Mr. Philippe Husson Member

Aviation Forecast Deputy Head Dprévi/Aéro/DA VAAC Toulouse Manager METEO-FRANCE 42, avenue Gustave Coriolis 31057 Toulouse Cédex France

Tel.: +33 5 61 07 82 39 Fax: +33 5 61 07 82 09 E-mail: [email protected]

Mr. Patrick Simon Advisor

IT direction. Aéronautique Météo-France 42 avenue Gustave Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, Cedex 1 France

Tel.: +33 5 61 07 81 50 Fax: +33 5 61 07 81 09 E-mail: [email protected]

Mr. Reinaldo Gutiérrez Cisterna Member

CHINA

FRANCE


A-3

GERMANY Dr. Dirk Engelbart Member

Section LR 21 Meteorology, Climate Monitoring, Earth Observation, German Meteorological Service (DWD) Robert-Schuman-Platz 1, 53175 Bonn P.O. Box 20 01 00 Germany

Tel.: + 49 228 99 300 4911 Fax: + 49 228 99 300 807 4911 E-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Jochen Forstner Advisor

Deutscher Wettesdienst Research and Development Frankfurter Sts 135 63067 Offenbach am Main

Tel.: +45 69-8062-4947 E-mail: [email protected]

Director-General Icelandic Meteorological Office Iceland


Mr. Tetsuyuki Ueyama Alternate

Japan Meteorological Agency Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-8122 Japan

Tel.: + 81 3 3284 1749 (Direct) Fax: + 81 3 3212 3648 E-mail: [email protected]

Dr.Mamoru Ishii Advisor

Director, Space Weather and Environment Informatics Laboratory Applied Electromagnetic Research Institute 4-2-1 Nukui-Kitamachi, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8795 Japan

Tel.: +81-42-327-7540 Fax.: +81-42-327-6163 E-mail: [email protected]

Mr. Peter D. Lechner Member

Chief Meteorological Officer Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand P.O. Box 31 441 Lower Hutt New Zealand

Tel.: Fax: Cell: E-mail:

Mr. Keith Mackersy Advisor

Senior Meteorologist Specialist Civil Aviation Authority New Zealand PO Box 3555 Wellington, New Zealand

Tel.: +64 4 904 0543 Cell: +64 2 1655 921 E-mail: [email protected]

Mr. Marcel Roux Advisor

MetService Manager Wellington VAAC Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd

Tel.: +64 4 700 731 Cell: +64 2 74700 731 E-mail: [email protected]

ICELAND Dr. Árni Snorrason Observer JAPAN

NEW ZEALAND +64 4 560 9593 +64 4 569 2024 +64 275 236186 [email protected]

A-4


UNITED KINGDOM Mr. Colin Hord Member

Deputy Head Met Authority UK Civil Aviation Authority CAA House 45-59 Kingsway London WC2B 6TE United Kingdom

Tel.: +44 207 453 6527 Fax: +44 207 453 6565 E mail: [email protected]

Mr. Nigel Gait Advisor

International Aviation Manager The MET Office Fitzroy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom

Tel.: +44 1392 886268 Fax: +44 1392 885681 E-mail: [email protected]

UNITED STATES Mr. Steven R. Albersheim Senior Meteorologist Member International Aviation Weather Program Leader Aerospace Weather Policy Division (ANC-C64) Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) 800 Independence Ave. SW Washington DC 20591 United States


Mr. Robert Rutledge Advisor

Lead, Space Weather Forecast Office Space Weather Prediction Center National Weather Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 325 Broadway/Room 1C106/W/NP9 Boulder, CO 80305 United States

Tel.:

Mr. Jeffrey Osiensky Advisor

Deputy Chief, Environmental and Scientific Services Division NOAA/National Weather Service 222 West 7th Ave #23 Room 517 Anchorage, AK 99513-7575 United States

Tel.: +907 271 5132 Fax: +907 271 3711 E-mail: [email protected]

+303 497 3029

Appendix A to the Report Mr. Larry Burch Advisor

Senior Scientist AvMET Applications Inc. 1800 Alexander Bell Drive Suite 130 Reston VA 20191 United States

Mr. Larry Mastin Advisor

U.S. Geological Survey David A Johnston Cascades Observatory 1300 SE Cardinal Court, Bldg 10 Suite 100 Vancouver, WA 98683 United States

A-5 Tel.: +1 703 284 7330 Cell: +1 816 582 1904 E-mail: [email protected]

Tel.: +(360) 993-8925 Volcano Fax,: +(360) 993-8980 E-mail: [email protected]

IATA Mr. Graham Rennie Member

Principal Advisor Global Operations Development Flight Operations Qantas Airways Limited Qantas Centre D Wing, Level 1 10 Bourke Rd Mascot 2020, NSW Australia

Mr. Hans-Rudi Sonnabend Head of Meteorological Services Advisor Lufthansa Systems AG Meteorological Services FRA AF/L-P-MET Am Prime Parc 2 D-65479 Raunheim Germany


Tel: +49 69 696 90362 Fax: +49 69 696 94736 Cell: +49 151 589 22475 E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]

ICCAIA Mr. Rory Clarkson Alternate

Project Engineer Rolls-Royce PO Box 31 Derby DE24 8BJ United Kingdom

Tel.: + 44 (0) 1332 246027 Mobile: +44 (0) 7852 824412 E-mail: [email protected]

Capt A330 Qantas Chairman AUSALPA ADO Committee Suite 601, Level 6 243-249 Coward St Mascot NSW Australia 2020

E-mail: :[email protected] [email protected]

IFALPA Capt. Bruce van Eyle Alternate

A-6


IUGG Ms. Marianne Guffanti Alternate

Geologist United States Geological Survey 926A National Center, Reston VA, 20192 United States

Tel.: +1 703 648 6708 Fax +1 703 648 6032 E-mail: [email protected]

WMO Mr. Dimitar Ivanov Alternate

Chief, Aeronautical Meteorology Unit Tel.: +41 22 730 8283 Fax: +41 22 730 8021 World Weather Watch Department E-mail: [email protected] World Meteorological Organization 7 bis, Avenue de la Paix, Case postale #2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland

Mr. Ian Lisk Advisor

MET Office, Fitzroy Road Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom

E-mail: [email protected]

Technical Officer, Meteorology Section Air Navigation Bureau International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 999 University Street Montréal, Québec Canada H3C 5H7

Tel.: +514 954 8219, ext. 7079 Fax: +514 954 6759 E-mail: [email protected]

ICAO SECRETARIAT Mr. Raul Romero Secretary

————————

Appendix B to the Report

B-1

APPENDIX B BASIC ANP/FASID PROVISIONS RELATED TO IAVW BASIC ANP SIGMET and AIRMET information (FASID Tables MET 3A, MET 3B and MET 3C) ... Tropical cyclone advisory centres (TCACs) [Darwin, Honolulu, Miami, Nadi, New Delhi, Réunion and Tokyo] have been designated to prepare advisory information. FASID Table MET 3A sets out the area of responsibility, the period(s) of operation of the TCAC(s) and the MWOs to which the advisory information should be sent. [IAVWOPSG Conclusion 3/2]

19.

20. Volcanic ash advisory centres (VAACs) [Anchorage, Buenos Aires, Darwin, London, Montreal, Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington and Wellington] have been designated to prepare advisory information. FASID Table MET 3B sets out the area of responsibility of the VAACs, and the MWOs and ACCs/FICs to which the advisory information should be sent. [IAVWOPSG Conclusion 3/2] 21. In order for the VAACs to initiate the monitoring of volcanic ash from satellite data and the forecast of volcanic ash trajectories, MWOs should notify the relevant VAAC immediately on receipt of information that a volcanic eruption has occurred or volcanic ash has been observed in the FIR for which they are responsible. In particular, any special air-reports of pre-eruption volcanic activity, a volcanic eruption or volcanic ash cloud, received by MWOs should be transmitted without delay to the VAAC concerned. Selected State volcano observatories have been designated for direct notification of significant pre-eruption volcanic activity, a volcanic eruption and/or volcanic ash in the atmosphere to their corresponding ACC/FIC, MWO and VAAC. FASID Table MET 3C sets out the selected State volcano observatories and the VAACs, MWOs and ACCs to which the notification should be sent by the observatories. [IAVWOPSG Conclusion 2/2] ...

B-2

Appendix B to the Report FASID TROPICAL CYCLONE AND VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY CENTRES (FASID Tables MET 3A, MET 3B and MET 3C, and FASID Charts MET 1 and MET 2)

... 6. The areas of responsibility and the periods of operation of the tropical cyclone advisory centres (TCACs) [Darwin, Honolulu, Miami, Nadi, New Delhi, Réunion and Tokyo], and the MWOs to which advisory information should be sent by the TCACs, are contained in FASID Table MET 3A. The areas of responsibility of the designated TCACs in all regions are shown on FASID Chart MET 1. 7. The areas of responsibility of the volcanic ash advisory centres (VAAC) [Anchorage, Buenos Aires, Darwin, London, Montreal, Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington and Wellington], and the MWOs and ACCs/FICs to which the advisory information should be sent by the VAACs are contained in FASID Table MET 3B. The areas of responsibility of the designated VAACs in all regions are shown on FASID Chart MET 2. 8. FASID Table MET 3C sets out the selected State volcano observatories designated for direct notification of significant pre-eruption volcanic activity, a volcanic eruption and/or volcanic ash in the atmosphere and the VAACs, MWOs and ACCs to which the notification should be sent by the observatories. Note. — Operational procedures to be used for the dissemination of information on volcanic eruptions and associated ash clouds in areas which could affect routes used by international flights, and necessary pre-eruption arrangements as well as the list of operational contact points are provided in the document entitled Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766). Additional guidance material regarding the IAVW is contained in the Manual on Volcanic Ash, Radioactive Material and Toxic Chemical Clouds (Doc 9691). ...


B-3

FASID TABLE MET 3A TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY CENTRES

EXPLANATION OF THE TABLE Column 1

Location of the tropical cyclone advisory centre (TCAC).

2

ICAO location indicator of TCAC (for use in the WMO header of advisory bulletin).

3

Area of responsibility for the preparation of advisory information on tropical cyclones by the TCAC in column 1.

4

Period(s) of operation of the TCAC.

5

MWO to which the advisory information on tropical cyclones should be sent.

6

ICAO location indicator of the MWO in Column 5.

MWO to which advisory information is to be sent Tropical cyclone advisory centre

ICAO loc. ind,

Area of responsibility

Period(s) of operation

Name

ICAO loc. ind.

1

2

3

4

5

6

B-4

Appendix B to the Report FASID TABLE MET 3B VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY CENTRES


Name of the volcanic ash advisory centre (VAAC).

2

ICAO location indicator of VAAC (for use in the WMO header of advisory bulletin).

3

Area of responsibility for the preparation of advisory information on volcanic ash by the VAAC in column 1.

4

State where the MWOs and ACCs/FICs are located.

5

ICAO region where the MWOs and ACCs/FICs are located.

6

MWOs to which the advisory information on volcanic ash should be sent.

7

ICAO location indicator of the MWOs in column 6.

8

ACCs/FICs to which the advisory information on volcanic ash should be sent.

9

ICAO location indicator of the ACCs/FICs in column 8. Note― MWOs and ACCs/FICs in italics are situated outside the [AFI, ASIA/PAC, CAR/SAM, EUR/NAT, MID and NAM] Region


B-5

MWO to which information is to be sent

VAAC

ACC/FIC to which information is to be sent

Name

ICAO loc. ind.


State

ICAO region

Name

ICAO loc. ind.

Name

ICAO loc. ind.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Anchorage (United States)

PAWU

Anchorage Oceanic, Anchorage Continental, Oakland Oceanic north of N4300 E16500, N4812 W15000, N4812 W12800 Anchorage Arctic, and West to E15000, North of N6000

Buenos Aires (Argentina)

SABM

South of S1000 between W01000 and W09000

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

...

YDPM

Southward from N1000 and from E10000 to E16000 and the Melbourne FIR between E10000 and E07500, Colombo FIR and those parts of the Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Chennai, Yangon and Kolkata FIRs lying within N1000 E10000 to N2000 E10000 to N2000 E08200 to N1000 E08200 to N0600 E07800 to S0200 E07800 to S0600 E07500 Southward from N2000 and from E08200 to E10000, and Southward from N1000 and from E10000 to E16000, and the Colombo, Melbourne and Brisbane FIRs

...

...

...

...

...

...

EGRR

South of the North Pole between the Prime Meridian and E09000 Bødo Oceanic, Finland, Kobenhavn, London Norway, Reykjavik, Scottish Shannon Shanwick Oceanic and Sweden

...

...

...

...

...

...

CWAO

Søndrestrøm, Gander Oceanic, Canadian continental FIRs (including the Arctic Ocean)

Darwin (Australia)

London (United Kingdom

Montreal (Canada)

...

...

...

...

...

...

2/9/14 Corr.

B-6

Appendix B to the Report MWO to which information is to be sent

VAAC Name

Tokyo (Japan)

Toulouse (France)

Washington (United States)

Wellington (New Zealand)

ICAO loc. ind.


...

...

...

...

...

...

RJTD

N6000 to N1000 and from E09000 to Oakland Oceanic and Anchorage oceanic and continental FIR boundaries except the area within N2000 E09000 to N2000 E10000 to N1000 E10000 to N1000 E09000

...

...

...

...

...

...

LFPW

Santa Maria Oceanic FIR, AFI Region north of S6000 down to the South Pole, EUR Region (except for Finland, Kobenhavn, London, Norway, Scottish, Shannon and Sweden FIRs) west of E09000 and south of N7100, MID Region, and ASIA Region west of E09000 north of N2000 (plus Mumbai, Chennai (west of E08200) and Male FIRs)

...

...

...

...

...

...

KNES

New York Oceanic Oakland Oceanic south of N4300 E16500 to N4820 W15000 to N4820 W12800, United States Continental FIRs, New York Oceanic FIR North of S1000 W14000 East of 0000 W14000 and North of S10000 W14000 to S1000 W03000 Nadi and Nauri FIRs North of Equator

...

...

...

...

...

...

NZKL

Southward from the Equator and from E16000 to W14000, except for the Melbourne and Brisbane FIRs, and southward from S1000 and from W14000 to W09000

State

ICAO region

Name

ICAO loc. ind.

ACC/FIC to which information is to be sent Name

ICAO loc. ind.


B-7

FASID TABLE MET 3C SELECTED STATE VOLCANO OBSERVATORIES


Provider State of the volcano observatory designated for direct notification of volcanic activity.

2

Name of the volcano observatory.

3

VAAC to which the information related to pre-eruption volcanic activity, a volcanic eruption and/or volcanic ash cloud should be sent.

4

ACC/FIC to which the information related to pre-eruption volcanic activity, a volcanic eruption and/or volcanic ash cloud should be sent.

5

ICAO location indicator of the ACC/FIC listed in column 4.

6

MWO to which the information related to pre-eruption volcanic activity, a volcanic eruption and/or volcanic ash cloud should be sent.

7

ICAO location indicator of the MWO listed in column 6.

Provider State of volcano observatory

Volcano observatory

VAAC to which the information is to be sent

1

2

3

ACC/FIC to which information is to be sent

MWO to which information is to be sent

Name

ICAO loc. ind.

Name

ICAO loc. ind.

4

5

6

7

Note.— AFTN is not available at all selected volcano observatories; therefore, it is the responsibility of each State to make appropriate communication arrangements.


MAP OF AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY OF VAAC AND CORRESPONDING FIR

————————

B-8

Appendix C to the Report

C-1

APPENDIX C

AMENDMENT TO THE HANDBOOK ON THE INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH (IAVW) — OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES AND CONTACT LIST (DOC 9766) RELATED TO PHASES OF ERUPTIONS ... Part 4 INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES FOR THE DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION ON VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND ASSOCIATED VOLCANIC ASH CLOUDS IN AREAS WHICH COULD AFFECT ROUTES USED BY INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS, AND NECESSARY PRE-ERUPTION ARRANGEMENTS PRIOR TO A VOLCANIC ERUPTION 4.1. PRE-ERUPTION PROCEDURES PRIOR TO A VOLCANIC ERUPTION 4.1.1 In order to permit efficient application of the measures noted in 4.2, 4.3, 4.4 and 4.5, States responsible for flight information regions (FIRs) in which there are active or potentially active volcanoes in proximity to routes used by international flights should make arrangements to ensure that:

... d)

information on increasing volcanic activity, volcanic eruption1 eruption or cessation thereof, or volcanic ash cloud in areas which could affect routes used by international flights, available from one or more observing sources, such as vulcanological, seismological, geological, meteorological, or the police/military networks and domestic aviation, is passed immediately to the ACC/FIC and the MWO concerned;

e)

the State international NOTAM office personnel are familiar with the issuance of ASHTAMs1 ASHTAMs2 (or NOTAMs for volcanic ash);

... _____________________________ 1. “eruption” in the Part 4 of the document is used for “starting or on-going eruption or cessation thereof”.

1;2. The ASHTAM is a special series NOTAM specifically for volcanic activity.

————————

Appendix D to the Report

D-1

APPENDIX D

AMENDMENT TO THE HANDBOOK ON THE INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH (IAVW) — OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES AND CONTACT LIST (DOC 9766) RELATED TO THE VAAC VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY COLLABORATIVE DECISION ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING PROCESS ... Part 4 INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES FOR THE DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION ON VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND ASSOCIATED VOLCANIC ASH CLOUDS IN AREAS WHICH COULD AFFECT ROUTES USED BY INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS, AND NECESSARY PRE-ERUPTION ARRANGEMENTS PRIOR TO A VOLCANIC ERUPTION ... 4.5 ACTION TO BE TAKEN BY VAACs IN THE EVENT OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION 4.5.1 On receipt of information from an ACC, MWO, volcano observatory or any other source† that a volcanic eruption has been reported and/or a volcanic ash cloud has been observed in the FIR for which the MWO is responsible, the VAAC should: ... g) when volcanic ash is approaching an adjacent FIR outside of a VAAC’s AOR, a collaborative decision analysis and forecasting process should occur between the VAACs. Collaborative decision analysis and forecasting procedures are described in 4.8. g) h)… h) i) … i) j) … j) k) … ... Editorial Note.— Insert the following new text.

†

. When initial notification of the eruption is received from a source other than an ACC/MWO, this information should be passed immediately by telephone to the relevant ACC and/or MWO. Thereafter, the procedures in a) to g) should be followed.

D-2


4.8 COLLABORATIVE DECISION ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING GUIDELINES AND PROCEDURES BETWEEN VAACs FOR VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORIES 4.8.1 Collaborative decision analysis and forecasting (CDAF) is a critical process to improve the quality of information provided in the volcanic ash advisories (VAA and VAG). 4.8.2 When volcanic ash is approaching an adjacent VAAC a CDAF process should occur between the VAACs. The following are guidelines for when a CDAF process is needed. If volcanic ash: a) is located within 300 NM (555 km) , or other distance as agreed between the VAACs concerned, of an adjacent VAAC boundary; b) is forecast within 300 NM (555 km), or other distance as agreed between the VAACs concerned, of an adjacent VAAC boundary; or c) is forecast to cross the VAAC boundary. 4.8.3 telephone.

The lead VAAC will initiate collaboration with the adjoining VAAC(s) by Internet chat or

Note.— Multilingual chat rooms will be set up and used for VAAC collaboration. 4.8.4 If the participating VAACs have collaboration tools, such as a geospatially enabled collaboration tool, the CDAF session should be conducting using these tools. The primary VAAC will propose the proper time to initiate a geo-enabled volcanic ash collaboration session. This should be done at least one hour before ash potentially impacts other VAAC area. 4.8.5 In the case of an initial notification of a volcanic ash event, it would be highly unlikely to begin the CDAF process and use of a collaborative tool any sooner than about twenty minutes after the initial notification. The following is list of steps and procedures for a CDAF process: 1) Partners/stakeholders become aware of a major‡ volcanic ash event. 2) Initial conversations, analysis/forecasting, coordination of messaging, dissemination of text and graphical products. 3) After the initial suite of products (e.g. advisories) have been sent, a message is sent to coordinate a collaborative session.§

‡ §

A volcanic event which either bridges or is forecast to extend across two or more VAAC boundaries. Message will likely be an e-mail or lead collaborator may wish to call participants first to ensure they are able to participate.


D-3

4) The message contains the following information: a) time of collaboration; b) platform or tool to use; c) instructions (e.g. what folder to join and what the name of the session will be, such as the Anchorage VAAC will join the “Alaska” folder and will join the session yyyymmdda. The next collaborative session will be yyyymmddb); and d) telephone conference line and passcode. 5) The “lead VAAC” leads the collaborative session. 6) At the pre-determined time, all participants log into the agreed platform or tool that will support the CDAF. 7) The users join the pre-determined folder and session name. 8) The collaboration leader facilitates the session and shows the data relative to the eruption with annotation as needed. 9) Participants can ask for control from the leader and are handed off in an orderly/organized fashion. 10) Rules of engagement include no talking over each another, proper etiquette and respect for participants on the call. 11) The leader keeps the collaborative session moving along and ends the session when completed. The collaboration leader will keep in mind workload commitments of participants. 12) Before the session ends, the collaboration leader informs the participants of the next session, if needed.

4.8.6

An example of a message to initiate collaborative session is:

TO: All collaboration participants during xxxx volcano event FROM: VAAC xxxx SUBJECT: Collaborative Decision Analysis and Forecast Session – yyyymmdd hhmm UTC A CDAF session is scheduled for yyyymmdd hhmm UTC. The session is expected to last no longer than xx minutes.

D-4

Appendix D to the Report The purpose of the session is to ensure proper situational awareness of xxxx volcano eruption and its impacts. Please be ready to share information concerning xxxx eruption. Format must be in .kml and may reside on a web page or on your local drive. Telcon information: 1-888-999-9999 passcode 12345# Start session: join xxxx folder and yyyymmdda session Wait for the collaborative session leader to join for further instruction Thank you

Editorial Note.— End of new text.

————————

Appendix E to the Report

E-1

APPENDIX E

GUIDANCE MATERIAL CONCERNING SIGMET FOR A COMPLEX VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD ...

Editorial Note.— Insert the following new text into the regional SIGMET guides. 1.SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud. A complex volcanic ash cloud is an ash cloud that is moving in different directions at multiple flight levels due to changes in the vertical wind structure of the atmosphere. 2. In order to provide information in situations where ash clouds are at multiple flight levels and moving in different directions, there needs to be an allowance for the graphic to include more coordinates and layers than what is allowed in Table A6-1 of Annex 3, Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation. This guidance is based on the concept that the graphical version of the SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud is very detailed in shape and dimension, and the associated alphanumeric text version is derived from describing the complex figure in seven points or less. Thus a text version can provide a conservative assessment of the location of the ash cloud, while the complex graphic version can provide more detail on the location and provide a more realistic depiction of the ash cloud which can be more useful end users. 3. This guidance is only for those MWOs who are in a position to provide a more detailed outline of the volcanic ash cloud in a graphical format and provide a simplified version of that information in abbreviated plain language message form. 4.The MWOs who produce a graphical SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud will provide a SIGMET message in the abbreviated plain language message form, but that message will be a simplified version of the complex ash cloud and comply with the maximum coordinate requirements noted in Table A6-1 of Annex 3. 5.Figure 4-1 presents an example of a graphical SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud, where: a) the complex volcanic ash cloud is depicted graphically on two panels: an observed (upper left panel in Figure 4-1) and a forecast (upper right panel in Figure 4-1) position; b) a maximum of four complex cloud segments may be depicted. Each cloud segment will include an ash cloud top and base; c) the SIGMET text (Figure 4-2) is derived from the complex SIGMET, but is done with seven coordinates or less; d) the highest ash cloud top in the SIGMET graphic would be used for the SIGMET text. The lowest ash cloud base would be used in the SIGMET text;

E-2


e) should there be a need to visualize the SIGMET text, that could be depicted graphically on two panels: an observed (middle left panel in Figure 4-1) and a forecast (middle right panel in Figure 4-1) position, or as one panel with both the observed and forecast positions (bottom panel in Figure 4-1); and f) a simple volcanic ash cloud would be graphically depicted as shown in the two middle panels or the bottom panels in Figure 4-1. 6. The area depicted by the abbreviated plain language SIGMET message (i.e. text version) will be slightly larger than the graphical version of the SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud. This is because of the coordinate limitations in Table A6-1 of Annex 3 for the text version. It is therefore understood that for SIGMETs for complex volcanic ash clouds the text and graphic do not have to exactly agree. 7.In the case for a complex volcanic ash event where MWOs are in the position to provide, the abbreviated plain language SIGMET message will be a more conservative assessment of the location of the ash cloud, while the SIGMET in graphical format provides more detail on the observed and forecast positions of the ash cloud. Users of the graphical version of the SIGMET for a complex volcanic ash cloud will benefit from receiving a more realistic depiction of the volcanic ash cloud compared to abbreviated plain language message form with its simple sided polygon (6 sides or less).


Figure 4-1. Complex volcanic ash cloud: observed (upper left panel) and forecast (upper right panel. Visualized SIGMET text: observed (middle left panel) and forecast (middle right panel), or as one panel with both the observed and forecast positions (bottom panel) with the dashed line representing the observed position

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E-4


PAZA SIGMET 1 VALID 300600/301200 PAWUPAZA ANCHORAGE FIR VA ERUPTION PAVLOF VOLCANO PSN N5542 W16189 VA CLD OBS AT 0600Z WI N5583 W15998 - N5614 W16041 - N5662 W16071 - N5693 W15986 - N5770 W15602 - N5718 W15531 - N5583 W15998 FL 020/300 MOV SE 25 KMH FCST 1200 VA CLD APRX N5592 W16014 - N5827 W16275 - N5940 W16217 - N5893 W15373 - N5802 W14966 - N5663 W14761 - N5343 W14959 - N5592 W16014 Figure 4-2.

SIGMET text derived from the complex SIGMET with seven coordinates or less

————————

Appendix F to the Report

F-1

APPENDIX F

MAP PROJECTIONS USED FOR THE REPRESENTATION OF VOLCANIC ASH CLOUDS The two examples below show how a simple triangle (defined by 3 coordinates joined by straight lines) will delineate different areas when plotted on different map projections. Example 1. 3 coordinates: N60 W000, N40 E030, N40 W030. When the same points are joined by straight lines on two different map projections the areas affected are not the same – in a) the northern half of Spain is identified as being affected, in b) it is completely clear! Which is correct? According to Footnote 2 of Table A2-1 (Annex 3) it would be a).

Figure 1: See Example 1 text for description.

To correctly represent the area defined by a) in the example above on a Polar Stereographic projection it would need to be described by the red dashed lines in figure 2b (below). This should therefore illustrate that you cannot simply join coordinates by straight lines on different map projections and obtain the same result.

Figure 2: See explanatory text for description.

F-2

Appendix F to the Report

Example 2. 3 coordinates: N60 W000, N50 E015, N50 W015. Again, when the same points are joined by straight lines on two different map projections differences in area affected arise. Since these triangles are smaller than those in Example 1 the difference is not so obvious at these scales – but note that the far southwest of England would be just clear in b), not so in a).

Figure 3: See Example 1 text for description.

————————

Appendix G to the Report

G-1

APPENDIX G PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE HANDBOOK ON THE INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH (IAVW) — OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES AND CONTACT LIST (DOC 9766) Figure 11 below provides an extract from Table 4-3 - Volcanic ash advisory bulletin headers of Doc 9766

which specifies the WMO AHLs that will be used by VAAC London, including those messages intended to be used when VAAC London is backing VAAC Toulouse. In Figure 11, FVXX05 EGRR and PFXD05 EGRR should be updated to read FVXX05 LFPW and PFXD05 LFPW, respectively.

FVXX01 EGRR FVXX02 EGRR FVXX03 EGRR

London

Toulouse

FVXX05 EGRR

PFXD05 EGGR

Figure 1: Current reference to the bulletins that VAAC London would issue in the event that they were to provide backup services to VAAC Toulouse. With regard to the bulletins that would be issued by VAAC London on behalf of VAAC Toulouse, this is incorrect. Figure 2 below illustrates the correct WMO AHL that would be used by VAAC London when backing up

VAAC Toulouse. FVXX01 EGRR FVXX02 EGRR FVXX03 EGRR

London

Toulouse

FVXX05 LFPW

PFXD05 LFPW

Figure 2: Proposed update to the bulletins that VAAC London would issue in the event that they were to provide backup services to VAAC Toulouse.

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Appendix H to the Report

H-1

APPENDIX H

PROPOSED ADDITION TO THE HANDBOOK ON THE INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH (IAVW) — OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES AND CONTACT LIST (DOC 9766)

… 4.6 ACTION TO BE TAKEN BY AIRLINE OPERATORS IN THE EVENT OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION 4.6.1 In the event of an eruption, airline operators should request their pilots to report, when appropriate, any observation related to volcanic ash cloud including the estimated absence of visible ash and all other relevant information (observational conditions etc.). The airline operator should then forward this information to the associated VAAC in a timely manner.

Note. ― Visible ash is defined in the Manual on Volcanic Ash, Radioactive Material and Toxic Chemical Clouds (Doc 9691).

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Appendix I to the Report

I-1

APPENDIX I TERMS OF REFERENCE OF THE IAVWOPSG 1.

Terms of reference: The IAVWOPSG should: a) provide advice and guidance to the Secretariat concerning the operation of the IAVW and its effectiveness in meeting current operational requirements; b) develop proposals for the development of the IAVW in order to ensure that it continues to meet evolving operational requirements; Note.— Such proposals for requirements should be made under ICAO procedures for the amendment of Annex 3. c) assist the Secretariat in the coordination of the arrangements between the various international organizations comprising the IAVW; d) coordinate with the SADISOPSG and WAFSOPSG regarding the inclusion of volcanic ash advisories and SIGMETs on the ICAO satellite broadcasts; e) assist the Secretariat in the development of appropriate guidance material both for operations with volcanic ash in the atmosphere and also operations with volcanic ash deposited on aerodromes; f) develop specific proposals for the provision of warnings for aerodrome management for deposition of volcanic ash on aerodromes; g) provide advice and guidance to the Secretariat and the VAACs regarding the future ICAO IAVW and existing VAAC Websites, respectively; h) provide advice to the Secretariat regarding the development of international arrangements for the provision of warnings to aircraft of radioactive materials, toxic chemicals in the atmosphere and space weather; and i)

make regular progress reports to the Air Navigation Commission.

Composition The IAVWOPSG should comprise representatives from States providing the VAACs, other user States that provided members to the VAWSG, and representatives from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), International Air Transport Association (IATA), International Coordinating Council of Aerospace Industries Associations (ICCAIA), Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO), International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations (IFALPA), International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) (covering the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) and its commission the World Organization of Volcano Observatories (WOVO)), and World Meteorological Organization (WMO). — — — — — — — —

Appendix J to the Report

J-1

APPENDIX J WORK PROGRAMME (DELIVERABLES) OF THE IAVWOPSG O = operational D = development H = related to other hazardous conditions Task number

Name

Description

Source

IAVWOPSG-01 Volcanic ash advisory Issuance of nine VAAC MET/02: 1/22 (O) centre (VAAC) management reports, every 18 management reports months, 10 weeks before each IAVWOPSG meeting IAVWOPSG-02 Updated ICAO provisions Development of updated ICAO MET/02: 1/22 (O) provisions (Annex 3 SARPS, IVATF 2/15; 2/28; guidance material and regional 2/29; 2/30 procedures) to ensure their compatibility with the evolving International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) APANPIRG 12/32 & 18/46; MET/02: 1/17 + App. H EANPG 51/27 EANPG 51/31 IVATF 2/4; 2/6; 2/9; 2/22; 2/27

IAVWOPSG-03 Improved production (O) processes, format and content of all volcanic ash related messages

Improve the format, content and production processes of all volcanic ash related messages (including the reporting of multiple ash layers)

IAVWOPSG-04 Refinement of the (O) provisions for the smell of sulphur as a condition prompting the issuance of a special air-report

Consider whether the smell of 164-10 sulphur should be added as a condition prompting the issuance of a special air-report

IAVWOPSG-05 Updates to the worldwide Undertake periodic updates to the APANPIRG 8/27; (O) ash encounter data base worldwide ash encounter data IAVWOPSG 1/5; base 166-13 IAVWOPSG-06 Improved tools for Improve detection of volcanic (D) detecting and forecasting eruption and volcanic ash clouds volcanic ash using future satellite and other systems; improve models used for forecasting the movement of volcanic ash

140-11; MET/02: 1/19; IAVWOPSG 2/8; 170-12 IVATF 2/1; 2/2; 2/3; 2/5; 2/7; 2/8; 2/10; 2/11; 2/12

J-2 Task number

Appendix J to the Report Name

Description

Source

IAVWOPSG-07 Refinement of VA (D) deposition information in a suitable aeronautical message

Consider including VA IAVWOPSG 1/23; deposition information in a 166-13 suitable aeronautical message (primarily for aerodromes within range of volcanic ash)

IAVWOPSG-08 Improved notification (H) concerning the release of radioactive material into the atmosphere

Assess and enhance, as necessary, the current operational procedures and notification practices on the release of radioactive material into the atmosphere from nuclear facilities

146-1&2; MET/02: 1/20 a); IAVWOPSG 1/28 & 1/31

IAVWOPSG-09 Information on solar Assess the need to provide MET/02: 1/20 c); (H) radiation storms and other information on solar radiation IAVWOPSG 1/33 bio-hazards storms and other bio hazards IAVWOPSG-10 Health risks to aircraft (H) occupants posed by sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere

Assess how to provide IAVWOPSG 7/35; information on sulphur dioxide Job-card 193/14, and other hazardous gases in the IAVWOPSG-001 atmosphere, that pose a risk to aircraft occupants in order to enhance guidance contained in the Doc 9766 and/or Doc 9691

Appendix J to the Report

J-1

WORKING GROUP ON STRATEGIC REVIEW AND PLANNING – ANWP AMENDMENT INPUT FORM (JOB-CARD) PART I Category

Safety

Sustainability

Implementation

Reference:

IAVWOPSG001

Title

Provision of information on sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere

Proposed by

IAVWOPSG Conclusion 7/34 / Decision 7/35

Problem Statement

Sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere pose health risks to aircraft occupants

Specific Details (including impact statements)

IVATF Recommendation 4/11 invited the IAVWOPSG, in coordination with the VASAG, as part of deliverable IAVWOPSG-04 and, in the context of the hazards posed by sulphur dioxide (SO2) and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere, to progress work on identifying and quantifying any associated health risks to aircraft occupants with a view to enhancing the guidance contained in Doc 9766. The group took note of an emerging requirement for providing assessments of the health risks to flight crew and passengers on aircraft entering an SO2 cloud. The group determined that ICAO, through an appropriate expert group or groups, should determine a clear meteorological/atmospheric chemistry requirement (such as a critical level of SO2 in the atmosphere that would be observed or forecast) that, after passing through the aircrafts ventilation system, could pose a health risk to the aircraft’s occupants. The group recommended that such a requirement should also take into account issues such as instantaneous exposure and accumulated dosage of SO2.

PART II Rating

High

Medium

Low

Rationale for acceptance/rejection Action already in progress

IAVWOPSG-04

Interdependencies/References

Doc 9691 (Manual on Volcanic Ash, Radioactive Material and Toxic Chemical Clouds); Doc 9766 (Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) — Operational Procedures and Contact List)

Required Action

By Whom/Resources

Deliverables

Timescales (for deliverable)

1

IAVWOPSG

Draft guidance material in Doc 9766 and/or Doc 9691

Q4 2015

Date Approved by ANC:

Next Review Date:

Completed Date:

Assess how to provide information on sulphur dioxide and other hazardous gases in the atmosphere that pose a risk to aircraft occupants

2 3 Issue Date:

Date Assessed by SRP:

22 March 2013

6 June 2013

Version 2.0 (01 May 2012)

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