2022 Report Hasan Alkhatib, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Hironori Kasahara, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Arif Merchant, Dejan Milojicic, and Karsten Schwan with contributions by: Mohammed AlQuraishi, Angela Burgess, David Forsyth, Hiroyasu Iwata, Rick McGeer, and John Walz
Preface In 2013-14, nine technical leaders wrote a report, entitled IEEE CS 2022, surveying 23 innovative technologies that could change the industry by the year 2022. The report covers security cross-cutting issues, open intellectual property movement, sustainability, massively online open courses, quantum computing, device and nanotechnology, device and nanotechnology, 3D integrated circuits, multicore, photonics, universal memory, networking and interconnectivity, software-defined networks, high-performance computing, cloud computing, the Internet of Things, natural user interfaces, 3D printing, big data and analytics, machine learning and intelligent systems, computer vision and pattern recognition, life sciences, computational biology and bioinformatics, and robotics for medical care. These technologies, tied into a scenario that we call seamless intelligence, present a view of the future. For each of the 23 technologies, there is a description of the state of the art, challenges, where we think the technology will go, and its disruption. To confirm the report’s prediction, we surveyed IEEE members about technology drivers and disruptors. We also tried to predict what kind of society the world would require with these 23 technologies. Finally, we analyzed the IEEE digital library to better understand the degree to which these technologies are covered today and by which Societies, so that we can make better ties. This document is intended for computer science professionals, students, and professors, as well as laymen interested in technology and technology use. While we tried to be
complete and exhaustive, it is inevitable that some technologies have been omitted, such as Bitcoin, future transportation, and the general notion of what technology contributes to the mankind. Our position, as well as the premise that this document brings, is that technology is the enabler. What humanity takes out of it really depends on human society. The IEEE CS 2022 report was presented at the Computer Society of India Congress, at the Information Processing Society of Japan (IPSJ) Congress, at the IEEE CS Board of Governors, at the IEEE CS Industrial Advisory Board, and at Belgrade Chapter. We received positive feedback and excellent ideas for improvement. This is a living document, because the technology continuously changes. We intend to use this document for the IEEE CS strategic planning that takes place every three years. We hope that the IEEE CS will be able to come up with similar reports regularly in the future. I thank Hasan Alkhatib, Paolo Faraboschi, Eitan Frachtenberg, Hironori Kasahara, Danny Lange, Phil Laplante, Arif Merchant, and Karsten Schwan for making this journey to 2022 together. Without their vision, technical knowledge, and creativity, this document would not be possible.
Dejan S Milojicic, IEEE Computer Society President 2014, February 2014 2
CONTENTS 1. Introduction
2. Seamless Intelligence Scenario
3. 23 Technologies in 2022
4. Drivers and Disruptors
5. Technology Coverage
6. IEEE Computer Society in 2022
7. Summary and Next Steps
APPENDIX I. 23 Technologies Coverage in IEEE Publications
FIGURES Figure 1. Landscape of 23 technologies..........................................7 Figure 2. IT ecosystem from supply to demand..........................21 Figure 3. Two integration scenarios: a 2.5D component using a silicon interposer and a full 3D stack using TSVs..............34 Figure 4. An integration scenario combining 2.5D integration of multiple 3D-stacked components..................................