Improved Security Provides Opening for Cooperation - National ...

Apr 21, 2017 - Baghdad. South. West. Kurdistan. Right direction. Wrong direction. Optimism in all regions except Kurdistan. Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? ∆ Jan'16 +29. +31. +20. +28. +16. +59. +3. Right direction ...
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Improved Security Provides Opening for Cooperation March – April 2017 Survey Findings

Page 1

The research • National Survey (excluding areas currently held by ISIS) – March 26 – April 21, 2017 – 1,338 respondents (unweighted 2,020 respondents) • 293 Baghdad respondents (unweighted 500 respondents) • 500 South respondents (unweighted 500 respondents) • 363 West respondents (unweighted 520 respondents, including 200 interviews in Mosul city) • 184 Kurdistan respondents (unweighted 500 respondents)

– Margin of error on national sample: +/- 2.19 • +/- 4.4% in each region – Oversamples of those who lived under ISIS • 200 interviews in the Khazer M1 camp, Ninewa • 100 interviews in Salahaddin, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year • 100 interviews in Anbar, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year • Data excluded from national sample, since selected on criteria (not randomly) Page 2

The Iraq “Dashboard” – Bounce back from historic lows Metric/survey question

Current %

Change Jan ‘16

Movement

Country direction, % right, total

39

+29

Much Better

Security, % better, total

60

+26

Much Better

Electricity supply, % better, total

39

+12

Better

Corruption, % better, total

13

+3

Stable

Job opportunities, % better, total

12

+1

Stable

Abadi favorability, % favorable among Shia

46

+15

Better

Abadi favorability, in West

68

+52

Much Better

Sectarianism, % better, total

62

+32

Much Better

Iraq is mostly unified %, total

45

+3

Stable

Sunni/Shia relations, % better, total

84

+40

Much Better

KRG/Baghdad relations, % better, total

22

+18

Better

Kurdish direction, % right, Kurdistan only

43

+15

Better Page 3

Improved security drives optimism

Page 4

Overall country mood rebounds Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction

Wrong direction

100

82 80

65

65 60

45 40

44

50 50 50

48

41 41

44 37

51

40

41 31

20

55

39

34 26 10

0 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12

54

59

Jul-12

Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16

Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17

Page 5

Optimism in all regions except Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction ∆ Jan’16 +29

+31

Wrong direction

+20

+28

+16

+59

+3

Right direction

100

95 80 60

64

59 40

39

62

57 41 32

20

36

62

35

64

34 3

0

Total

Urban

Rural

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 6

Iraqi priorities shift as security improves Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address ∆ Jan’16 Corruption

+3

43

Jobs and unemployment

+5

41

Security

-12

34

Sectarianism

15

+5

Basic services like electricity and water

14

-8

High prices

13

+4

Education and schools

13

+6

Infrastructure, like roads and bridges

9

N/A

Health care services

9

N/A

Internally displaced Iraqis

3 0

-6 10

20

30

40

50 Page 7

Perceptions of Army improve dramatically

Page 8

More than 4 in 5 now favorable to Army Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with as prime minister? 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.

Favorable

100

Unfavorable 81

80

60

58

66

59

40

32

20

18 19 0 Oct-10

May-11

12 Jan-12

Sep-12

May-13

Jan-14

Aug-14

Apr-15

Dec-15

Aug-16

Apr-17 Page 9

Strong ratings for Army, except in Kurdistan Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. ∆ Jan’15, favorable

+22

% Favorable

% Unfavorable

+14

+0

+67

95

95

88

+8

100 80 60

81

40

10

20 0 -20

-40

12

2

Total

Baghdad

3

6 67

-60 -80 -100

South

West

Kurdistan Page 10

Army and PMUs get most of the credit for liberation Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS?

76

Army

63

Hashd al-Shaabi

15

Peshmerga

13

International forces

10

Haider al-Abadi

Religious leaders

8

The central government

7

Tribal leaders

2

Political leaders

2 0

20

40

60

80

Page 11

Credit for liberation, by region Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS?

91 Baghdad South West Kurdistan

78

Army

20 79 Hashd al-Shaabi

Peshmerga

17 6 2

7 0

92

6

International forces 3

Haider al-Abadi

93

40

4 2 0 7

92

43 25 20

40

60

80

100 Page 12

Army seen to represent all Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents:

77

All Iraqis

Only Shias

8

Both Shia and Sunni

7

A specific political party or leader

3

A foreign country

2

Only Sunnis

0 0

20

40

60

80 Page 13

Only Kurdistan disagrees on army representing all Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents:

Baghdad South West Kurdistan

90 87 83

All Iraqis

16 2 2

Only Shias

6 36 5 7 8 11

Both Shia and Sunni

0 0 2

A specific political party or leader

19 0

20

40

60

80

100 Page 14

West also now more favorable to PMUs

Page 15

Hashd al-Shaabi also now more favorable in West Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. ∆ Jan’16, favorable

100

+7

80 60

% Favorable

-4 90

% Unfavorable

+2

+22

--

100

74

60

40 20 0

19

6 28

-20

2

-40 -60

76

-80 -100

Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 16

Strong job approval, but regional tensions apparent Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Iraq's Army/Hashd al-Shaabi/Pershmerga is doing in the fight against ISIS?

Approve

Disapprove

100

99

96

97

96

95

96

80

85

77 67

60

59 40

45

51

49 41 32 32

20

0

23 1

3

4

Baghdad South

West

Iraqi National Army

4

13

3

K'stan Baghdad South

West

Hashd al-Shaabi

2

K'stan Baghdad South

West

K'stan

Peshmerga Page 17

Winning the Peace: The Army and PMUs

Page 18

High expectations for ISIS defeat this year Based on what you know, how long do you think it will take for Iraq to be fully liberated from ISIS? Within one year

More than one year

Never

∆ Sept.’15 , within one year 80

+23

+1

+21

+51

73

+7

70

60

59

58 49

40

48

33

28

20

20 4

2

0

Total

Baghdad

18 2

South

18

1 West

Kurdistan Page 19

Most want army in liberated areas for security I am now going to read a list of different security forces in Iraq. Based on what you know, which ONE of the following should provide security for areas liberated from or currently occupied by ISIS such as Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salahaddin?

48

The Iraqi army

The Iraqi Army

20

The Iraqi police

16

Hashd al-Shaabi

Mosul

70%

Ninewa camp

69%

Anbar

70%

Salahaddin

46%

7

Peshmerga

4

Hashd al-Shaari Ninewa Guards

2 0

PKK or YPG 0

20

40

60

80

100

Page 20

West and Kurds worry about PMU violence Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of Hashd alShaabi committing violence in liberated areas? Very/Somewhat

Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of the Iraqi Army and Security Forces committing violence in liberated areas?

Little/Not

Very/Somewhat

100

Little/Not

100

89

80

82

81

73

69

60

90

80

65 67

60

62 55

40

40

45 36

20

34

30

20

Total

Baghdad

South

9

0 West

K'stan

30

18

16

8

0

25

Total

Baghdad

South

West

K'stan Page 21

Most want PMU integration; Kurds/IDPs want them disbanded Now thinking specifically about Hashd al-Shaabi, what do you think should be done with Hashd al-Shaabi after Iraq is liberated from ISIS.

Be dissolved and integrated into the Iraqi Army

40

Be given more power as a separate military force

23

Completely disband and turn over its weapons

16

Remain as it is but return to their home governorates

7

Remain as it is but stay only in contested areas

7

Remain as it is and deploy to provinces that were not contested by ISIS

5 0

West: 20% Kurdistan: 60% Ninewa camp: 51%

10

20

30

40 Page 22

50

Divisions on PMUs entering politics Do you approve or disapprove of Hashd al-Shaabi becoming more involved in the political process by registering new political parties and having candidates in the next elections? Approve

Disapprove

100

96 80

60

40

61 47

54

47 35

49

48

36

20

1

0

Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 23

Broad support for compulsory army, except in North Do you approve or disapprove of the Iraqi Army re-instating the policy of compulsory military service for all Iraqi men 18 years and older? Approve

∆ Jan’15 +5

Disapprove

+3

-3

81

81

+24

-6

Approve

100

80 60

74

77 63

40 20

34 25

18

16

22

0

Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 24

Understanding ISIS’s Rise

Page 25

Most blame corruption, but West and Kurds blame Maliki Which TWO of the following do you blame the most for the rise of ISIS in Iraq:

42

Corruption

36

Sectarian tensions in Iraq

31

Treatment of Sunnis by former Prime Minister Maliki

29

Political parties

Top choice in West (52%) and Kurdistan (47%)

28

Foreign governments

20

Poor economic conditions

9

Treatment of Sunnis by Iraqi Security Forces 0

10

20

30

40

50

Page 26

ISIS successful strategies: intimidation and persuasion Now, I am going to read you a list of potential reasons why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq over the last few years. Please tell me which ONE of these is the most important reason for why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq

ISIS used threats of violence

39

ISIS offered people an attractive form of religion

23

ISIS offered people money and a better life

19

ISIS offered protection from the central government and security forces

Kurdistan’s first choice: 32%

9

ISIS offered better services than local or central government

5 0

10

20

30

40

Page 27

Religion behind why some joined ISIS Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS?

48

Religious beliefs

36

Forced to join

30

Poor government performance

28

Poor economic situations

24

Injustice from the government

12

Treatment by other sects

11

Pressure from family and friends 0

10

20

30

40

50

Page 28

Why some joined ISIS, by region Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS?

44 Baghdad Religious beliefs South West Forced to join Kurdistan

39

17

25 Poor government performance

26

35 33

21 20

Poor economic situations

23 0

37

46

30

14

Injustice from the government

56

41

23

52 51

20

33 40

60 Page 29

The fight against ISIS has helped to unify Iraq The fight against ISIS has helped unify the people of Iraq.

The fight against ISIS has further divided the people of Iraq.

100

87

80

86

85

78 60

56 40

31

20 0

14 Total

11 Baghdad

7

6 South

West

Kurdistan Page 30

Majority concerned about ISIS’s return Would you say you are very concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups reemerging in Iraq, somewhat concerned, just a little concerned, or not at all concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging to Iraq? Very/Somewhat

Little/Not

100

91

80

74 60

58

55

40

44

40 20

50

49

25 6

0 Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 31

Ninewa after ISIS

Page 32

Ninewa camp, Mosul concerns show stark contrast Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address:

Mosul

Ninewa Camp

28

Security 7

High prices

76

27 22 23

Corruption 11

Health care services

5

Internally displaced Iraqis Basic services like electricity and water

12

Jobs and unemployment Sectarianism

9 7 6

Infrastructure, like roads and bridges

3

Education and schools

2 0

22 22 19 52

14 32 20

40

60

80 Page 33

Support for military governor in Mosul Thinking specifically about Ninewa. Which of the following do you think should govern Ninewa until it has been fully liberated and made more stable:

A military governor appointed by the prime minister

46

A civilian governor elected by the provincial council

21

A civilian governor appointed by the prime minister

Mosul: 59%

Kurdistan: 55%

18

The currently elected governor

In Ninewa camp: plurality do not choose any option

9 0

20

40

60

80

Page 34

Who would bring stability to Ninewa? | Mosul & Ninewa camp Please take a look at the names on this list. Based on what you know, which of the following individuals would do the best job bringing stability to Ninewa?

Counterterrorism Commander Abdul Wahhab al-Saedi Former Minister of Defense Khalid alObedi

33 21 13

Other

10

Governor Nofal Hammadii

7

Lieutenant General Abdulghani al-Asadi Former Governor Atheel al-Nujaifi

6 4

Major General Najm al-Juburi 0

10

20

30

40

Page 35

Outside of Kurdistan, people want Ninewa to stay as is Once Ninewa is liberated which of the following do you think should happen to the governorate:

Kurdistan 75

Remain as it currently is Be divided along ethnic and sectarian lines into different provinces

24

7

31

Join the KRG 6

21

Becomes its own semi-autonomous region like KRG

5

Link up with other Sunni provinces to form a larger semi-autonomous region

4 0

9 9 20

40

60

80

100

Page 36

Abadi image rebounds

Page 37

Majority approve of Abadi’s job again Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister?

Approve

100

80

75 65

Disapprove

63

59

60

40

33

29

20

38

19 0 Jan-15

Jun-15

Dec-15

May-16

Oct-16

Apr-17 Page 38

Abadi’s job approval jumps most in West Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister? Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan

100 93

85 80

% that approve 78

85

83 64

60

68

52 57 48

40

33

24

18

20 28

16 0 Jan-15

Jun-15

15 Dec-15

May-16

Oct-16

Apr-17 Page 39

Favorability of leaders | Non-Kurdistan Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. % Favorable Δ Jan ’16

-2

+18

+25

55

52

+16

0

% Unfavorable

+7

-3

+1

+4

-3

6

5

6

100 80 60

66

40 20

0 -20

23

26

30

39 21

18

16

69

69

66

37

-40 -60 -80

63 84

88

Jabouri

Nujaifi

-100 Ameri

Sadr

Abadi

Obeidi

Maliki

Allawi

Hakim

Khanjar Page 40

Majority want to continue in Abadi’s direction I want to go in a very different direction than Haider al-Abadi is taking Iraq.

I want to continue in the direction Haider al-Abadi is taking Iraq.

∆100Jan’16 +23

-20

+8

-8

+16

-16

+55

-45

+4

0

80

77

74 60

40

20

55

53

33

51

28

31 17

18

0

Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 41

Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq

Page 42

Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq

1. Inclusive institutions need to deliver on citizens’ high expectations for the future.

2. Prosecution of ISIS members and provision of compensation and psychological support for victims are key priorities.

3. Leaders need to develop a strong vision for the future—fighting corruption, creating jobs, and achieving long-term reconciliation.

Page 43

Iraqis split on whether country is unified Iraq is mostly a unified country

Iraq is mostly a divided country.

∆ Jan’15 unified 100

+3

+11

-26

+36

+3

80

81

60

57 40

45

48

47

38

45

49

45

20

15 0

Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 44

Belief that parties need to reconcile, not people Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is that Iraq will see greater cooperation between the political parties in the near future? Very/Somewhat

Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is that the different sects and ethnicities living in previously occupied ISIS areas will improve relations among themselves?

Little/Not

Very/Somewhat

100

100

80

80

76

70

60

54

40

48 50

70

70

63

61

40

38

37

32

30

20

74 60

59

Little/Not

20

22

19 0

27

28 17

0 Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan

Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 45

Removing quotas, PMU integration key to reconciliation Now, I am going to read you a list of ways to achieve reconciliation in Iraq. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a very effective way to achieve reconciliation in Iraq, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not an effective way at all to achieve reconciliation in Iraq. Very effective Ending sectarian quotas for government positions and jobs

Somewhat effective

42

Integrating the Popular Mobilization Units into the Iraqi Army

66

36

72

Holding a national dialogue on reconciliation that includes politicians, religious/tribal leaders, CSOs

33

72

Reducing influence of other countries

32

72

19

More cooperation among the political parties Decentralizing power to local governments so that they rely less on the central government

65

14 0

57 20

40

60

80 Page 46

Jobs and anti-corruption best way to stop ISIS’s return Now I am going to read you a list of things that some people think are important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge in Iraq. For each one please tell me if you think that thing is very important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge Very important

Somewhat important

80

Creating more jobs and opportunities for youth

97

Fighting corruption

71

94

Creating tougher security measures to prevent sleeper cells in liberated areas

70

96

61

Revising the curriculum in schools to emphasize diversity and coexistence

91

58

De-radicalizing imams in mosques

89

56

Creating a national program to de-radicalize youth living under ISIS

92

47

Launching national dialogue to bring all sects together, decide the future of Iraq

87

42

Making all armed groups illegal other than the Iraqi Army, police, and Peshmerga Holding referendums to determine status of disputed territories Creating cross-sectarian coalitions between political parties

30

64

28

63

25

Giving more power to Prime Minister Abadi

54

23

Creating a new cross-sectarian political party

0

77

20

50 40

60

80

100

Page 47

Iraqis want prosecution for ISIS members Which ONE of the following do you think should be done to those who committed violent acts on behalf of ISIS?

Prosecute all accused ISIS detainees

76

Offer amnesty to individuals not found guilty of serious crimes such as murder, rape, or mutilation

8

Require those found guilty to provide financial compensation to victims

8

Grant amnesty to those who come forward and admit their wrongdoings

3 0

20 40 60 80 Page 48

Special courts preferred for prosecution of ISIS members Which ONE of the following would be most effective overseeing the process of prosecuting ISIS members and helping victims of their crimes?

38

Military tribunals

26

A special ISIS-related court

Local justice panels

9

The United Nations and international community

9

B’dad 59%

Kurdistan: 43%

8

The federal court

6

Tribes

0

10

20

30

40

50 Page 49

Helping ISIS’s victims When thinking about the victims of ISIS, which TWO of the following do you think should be done to help these victims?

73

Financial compensation

34

Psychological support

32

Establish a victims' support organization

17

Recognizing the Yezidi genocide

Kurdistan 52%

11

Assist sexual violence victims reintegrate into their communities A monument to those who died fighting ISIS

8

Record and make public the stories of all ISIS victims

8

Protect legal rights of children born as a result of sexual violence

8 0

20

40

60

80 Page 50

Differing views on who should distribute compensation Please tell me which ONE of these you MOST trust to distribute compensation to those most harmed by ISIS.

34

The central government

West 44% Kurdistan 36%

29

The United Nations

Provincial councils

13 11

Religious leaders and mosques

South 23%

4

Tribal leaders 0

10

20

30

40

50 Page 51

High expectations for government compensation In your opinion, do you think the central government should be required to compensate people who lost property or were injured by ISIS, with the compensation coming from the national budget, even if this means less revenue for salaries and development projects? Yes

100

No 94

80

87

84

81

60

65

40

20

12

13

6

16

14

0

Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 52

Kurdistan

Page 53

Mood rebounds a bit in Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?

Right direction

Wrong direction

100

85 72 74

80

78

74 65

63

68

63

56

60

49

40

43 30

20

0

55

21 22 9

29

15

Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12

Jul-12

33 23

43

28 20

Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16

Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17

Page 54

Barzani approval down; split on another term | Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Massoud Barzani is doing as President of Kurdistan?

Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of Massoud Barzani serving another term as President of Kurdistan Approve

Δ Jan’16 Total

Disapprove 60

60

51

49 40

49

-3

+5 52

46

43

40

43

39 20

20

0 Jul-13

Apr-14

Jan-15

Oct-15

Jul-16

Apr-17

0

Approve

Disapprove Page 55

Kurdish referendum result a certainty | Kurdistan Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Kurdistan should become an independent country. Kurdistan should remain an autonomous region of Iraq.

96

100

86 78

80

80

65 60 40 20

20

6

15

0 Feb-10 Aug-10 Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

2

9

Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Oct-16

Apr-17

Page 56

Miscellaneous

Page 57

Internet access Do you have regular access to the internet?

Yes

Do you have a mobile phone with internet access?

No

Yes

100

100

80

80

60

81 64

58

40

60

65

34

82

73

67

64

57

55 41

No

41

40

33

43 33

20

36 27

20

19

18

0

0 Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan

Total

Baghdad

South

West

Kurdistan Page 58