Apr 21, 2017 - Baghdad. South. West. Kurdistan. Right direction. Wrong direction. Optimism in all regions except Kurdistan. Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? â Jan'16 +29. +31. +20. +28. +16. +59. +3. Right direction ...
Improved Security Provides Opening for Cooperation March – April 2017 Survey Findings
Page 1
The research • National Survey (excluding areas currently held by ISIS) – March 26 – April 21, 2017 – 1,338 respondents (unweighted 2,020 respondents) • 293 Baghdad respondents (unweighted 500 respondents) • 500 South respondents (unweighted 500 respondents) • 363 West respondents (unweighted 520 respondents, including 200 interviews in Mosul city) • 184 Kurdistan respondents (unweighted 500 respondents)
– Margin of error on national sample: +/- 2.19 • +/- 4.4% in each region – Oversamples of those who lived under ISIS • 200 interviews in the Khazer M1 camp, Ninewa • 100 interviews in Salahaddin, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year • 100 interviews in Anbar, all lived under ISIS for at least 1 year • Data excluded from national sample, since selected on criteria (not randomly) Page 2
The Iraq “Dashboard” – Bounce back from historic lows Metric/survey question
Current %
Change Jan ‘16
Movement
Country direction, % right, total
39
+29
Much Better
Security, % better, total
60
+26
Much Better
Electricity supply, % better, total
39
+12
Better
Corruption, % better, total
13
+3
Stable
Job opportunities, % better, total
12
+1
Stable
Abadi favorability, % favorable among Shia
46
+15
Better
Abadi favorability, in West
68
+52
Much Better
Sectarianism, % better, total
62
+32
Much Better
Iraq is mostly unified %, total
45
+3
Stable
Sunni/Shia relations, % better, total
84
+40
Much Better
KRG/Baghdad relations, % better, total
22
+18
Better
Kurdish direction, % right, Kurdistan only
43
+15
Better Page 3
Improved security drives optimism
Page 4
Overall country mood rebounds Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction
Wrong direction
100
82 80
65
65 60
45 40
44
50 50 50
48
41 41
44 37
51
40
41 31
20
55
39
34 26 10
0 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12
54
59
Jul-12
Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16
Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17
Page 5
Optimism in all regions except Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction? Right direction ∆ Jan’16 +29
+31
Wrong direction
+20
+28
+16
+59
+3
Right direction
100
95 80 60
64
59 40
39
62
57 41 32
20
36
62
35
64
34 3
0
Total
Urban
Rural
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 6
Iraqi priorities shift as security improves Now, I am going to read you a list of concerns that some people may have. Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address ∆ Jan’16 Corruption
+3
43
Jobs and unemployment
+5
41
Security
-12
34
Sectarianism
15
+5
Basic services like electricity and water
14
-8
High prices
13
+4
Education and schools
13
+6
Infrastructure, like roads and bridges
9
N/A
Health care services
9
N/A
Internally displaced Iraqis
3 0
-6 10
20
30
40
50 Page 7
Perceptions of Army improve dramatically
Page 8
More than 4 in 5 now favorable to Army Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with as prime minister? 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable.
Favorable
100
Unfavorable 81
80
60
58
66
59
40
32
20
18 19 0 Oct-10
May-11
12 Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Aug-14
Apr-15
Dec-15
Aug-16
Apr-17 Page 9
Strong ratings for Army, except in Kurdistan Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. ∆ Jan’15, favorable
+22
% Favorable
% Unfavorable
+14
+0
+67
95
95
88
+8
100 80 60
81
40
10
20 0 -20
-40
12
2
Total
Baghdad
3
6 67
-60 -80 -100
South
West
Kurdistan Page 10
Army and PMUs get most of the credit for liberation Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS?
76
Army
63
Hashd al-Shaabi
15
Peshmerga
13
International forces
10
Haider al-Abadi
Religious leaders
8
The central government
7
Tribal leaders
2
Political leaders
2 0
20
40
60
80
Page 11
Credit for liberation, by region Which TWO of the following do you give the most credit for liberating parts of Iraq from ISIS?
91 Baghdad South West Kurdistan
78
Army
20 79 Hashd al-Shaabi
Peshmerga
17 6 2
7 0
92
6
International forces 3
Haider al-Abadi
93
40
4 2 0 7
92
43 25 20
40
60
80
100 Page 12
Army seen to represent all Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents:
77
All Iraqis
Only Shias
8
Both Shia and Sunni
7
A specific political party or leader
3
A foreign country
2
Only Sunnis
0 0
20
40
60
80 Page 13
Only Kurdistan disagrees on army representing all Generally speaking, who do you think the army represents:
Baghdad South West Kurdistan
90 87 83
All Iraqis
16 2 2
Only Shias
6 36 5 7 8 11
Both Shia and Sunni
0 0 2
A specific political party or leader
19 0
20
40
60
80
100 Page 14
West also now more favorable to PMUs
Page 15
Hashd al-Shaabi also now more favorable in West Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. ∆ Jan’16, favorable
100
+7
80 60
% Favorable
-4 90
% Unfavorable
+2
+22
--
100
74
60
40 20 0
19
6 28
-20
2
-40 -60
76
-80 -100
Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 16
Strong job approval, but regional tensions apparent Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Iraq's Army/Hashd al-Shaabi/Pershmerga is doing in the fight against ISIS?
Approve
Disapprove
100
99
96
97
96
95
96
80
85
77 67
60
59 40
45
51
49 41 32 32
20
0
23 1
3
4
Baghdad South
West
Iraqi National Army
4
13
3
K'stan Baghdad South
West
Hashd al-Shaabi
2
K'stan Baghdad South
West
K'stan
Peshmerga Page 17
Winning the Peace: The Army and PMUs
Page 18
High expectations for ISIS defeat this year Based on what you know, how long do you think it will take for Iraq to be fully liberated from ISIS? Within one year
More than one year
Never
∆ Sept.’15 , within one year 80
+23
+1
+21
+51
73
+7
70
60
59
58 49
40
48
33
28
20
20 4
2
0
Total
Baghdad
18 2
South
18
1 West
Kurdistan Page 19
Most want army in liberated areas for security I am now going to read a list of different security forces in Iraq. Based on what you know, which ONE of the following should provide security for areas liberated from or currently occupied by ISIS such as Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salahaddin?
48
The Iraqi army
The Iraqi Army
20
The Iraqi police
16
Hashd al-Shaabi
Mosul
70%
Ninewa camp
69%
Anbar
70%
Salahaddin
46%
7
Peshmerga
4
Hashd al-Shaari Ninewa Guards
2 0
PKK or YPG 0
20
40
60
80
100
Page 20
West and Kurds worry about PMU violence Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of Hashd alShaabi committing violence in liberated areas? Very/Somewhat
Based on what you know, how concerned are you about members of the Iraqi Army and Security Forces committing violence in liberated areas?
Little/Not
Very/Somewhat
100
Little/Not
100
89
80
82
81
73
69
60
90
80
65 67
60
62 55
40
40
45 36
20
34
30
20
Total
Baghdad
South
9
0 West
K'stan
30
18
16
8
0
25
Total
Baghdad
South
West
K'stan Page 21
Most want PMU integration; Kurds/IDPs want them disbanded Now thinking specifically about Hashd al-Shaabi, what do you think should be done with Hashd al-Shaabi after Iraq is liberated from ISIS.
Be dissolved and integrated into the Iraqi Army
40
Be given more power as a separate military force
23
Completely disband and turn over its weapons
16
Remain as it is but return to their home governorates
7
Remain as it is but stay only in contested areas
7
Remain as it is and deploy to provinces that were not contested by ISIS
5 0
West: 20% Kurdistan: 60% Ninewa camp: 51%
10
20
30
40 Page 22
50
Divisions on PMUs entering politics Do you approve or disapprove of Hashd al-Shaabi becoming more involved in the political process by registering new political parties and having candidates in the next elections? Approve
Disapprove
100
96 80
60
40
61 47
54
47 35
49
48
36
20
1
0
Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 23
Broad support for compulsory army, except in North Do you approve or disapprove of the Iraqi Army re-instating the policy of compulsory military service for all Iraqi men 18 years and older? Approve
∆ Jan’15 +5
Disapprove
+3
-3
81
81
+24
-6
Approve
100
80 60
74
77 63
40 20
34 25
18
16
22
0
Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 24
Understanding ISIS’s Rise
Page 25
Most blame corruption, but West and Kurds blame Maliki Which TWO of the following do you blame the most for the rise of ISIS in Iraq:
42
Corruption
36
Sectarian tensions in Iraq
31
Treatment of Sunnis by former Prime Minister Maliki
29
Political parties
Top choice in West (52%) and Kurdistan (47%)
28
Foreign governments
20
Poor economic conditions
9
Treatment of Sunnis by Iraqi Security Forces 0
10
20
30
40
50
Page 26
ISIS successful strategies: intimidation and persuasion Now, I am going to read you a list of potential reasons why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq over the last few years. Please tell me which ONE of these is the most important reason for why ISIS took over so much territory in Iraq
ISIS used threats of violence
39
ISIS offered people an attractive form of religion
23
ISIS offered people money and a better life
19
ISIS offered protection from the central government and security forces
Kurdistan’s first choice: 32%
9
ISIS offered better services than local or central government
5 0
10
20
30
40
Page 27
Religion behind why some joined ISIS Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS?
48
Religious beliefs
36
Forced to join
30
Poor government performance
28
Poor economic situations
24
Injustice from the government
12
Treatment by other sects
11
Pressure from family and friends 0
10
20
30
40
50
Page 28
Why some joined ISIS, by region Now I am going to read a list of reasons why some Iraqis joined ISIS. Please tell me which TWO you think is the biggest reason some Iraqis joined ISIS?
44 Baghdad Religious beliefs South West Forced to join Kurdistan
39
17
25 Poor government performance
26
35 33
21 20
Poor economic situations
23 0
37
46
30
14
Injustice from the government
56
41
23
52 51
20
33 40
60 Page 29
The fight against ISIS has helped to unify Iraq The fight against ISIS has helped unify the people of Iraq.
The fight against ISIS has further divided the people of Iraq.
100
87
80
86
85
78 60
56 40
31
20 0
14 Total
11 Baghdad
7
6 South
West
Kurdistan Page 30
Majority concerned about ISIS’s return Would you say you are very concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups reemerging in Iraq, somewhat concerned, just a little concerned, or not at all concerned about ISIS and other extremist groups re-emerging to Iraq? Very/Somewhat
Little/Not
100
91
80
74 60
58
55
40
44
40 20
50
49
25 6
0 Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 31
Ninewa after ISIS
Page 32
Ninewa camp, Mosul concerns show stark contrast Which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address:
Mosul
Ninewa Camp
28
Security 7
High prices
76
27 22 23
Corruption 11
Health care services
5
Internally displaced Iraqis Basic services like electricity and water
12
Jobs and unemployment Sectarianism
9 7 6
Infrastructure, like roads and bridges
3
Education and schools
2 0
22 22 19 52
14 32 20
40
60
80 Page 33
Support for military governor in Mosul Thinking specifically about Ninewa. Which of the following do you think should govern Ninewa until it has been fully liberated and made more stable:
A military governor appointed by the prime minister
46
A civilian governor elected by the provincial council
21
A civilian governor appointed by the prime minister
Mosul: 59%
Kurdistan: 55%
18
The currently elected governor
In Ninewa camp: plurality do not choose any option
9 0
20
40
60
80
Page 34
Who would bring stability to Ninewa? | Mosul & Ninewa camp Please take a look at the names on this list. Based on what you know, which of the following individuals would do the best job bringing stability to Ninewa?
Counterterrorism Commander Abdul Wahhab al-Saedi Former Minister of Defense Khalid alObedi
33 21 13
Other
10
Governor Nofal Hammadii
7
Lieutenant General Abdulghani al-Asadi Former Governor Atheel al-Nujaifi
6 4
Major General Najm al-Juburi 0
10
20
30
40
Page 35
Outside of Kurdistan, people want Ninewa to stay as is Once Ninewa is liberated which of the following do you think should happen to the governorate:
Kurdistan 75
Remain as it currently is Be divided along ethnic and sectarian lines into different provinces
24
7
31
Join the KRG 6
21
Becomes its own semi-autonomous region like KRG
5
Link up with other Sunni provinces to form a larger semi-autonomous region
4 0
9 9 20
40
60
80
100
Page 36
Abadi image rebounds
Page 37
Majority approve of Abadi’s job again Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister?
Approve
100
80
75 65
Disapprove
63
59
60
40
33
29
20
38
19 0 Jan-15
Jun-15
Dec-15
May-16
Oct-16
Apr-17 Page 38
Abadi’s job approval jumps most in West Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Haider al-Abadi is doing as prime minister? Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan
100 93
85 80
% that approve 78
85
83 64
60
68
52 57 48
40
33
24
18
20 28
16 0 Jan-15
Jun-15
15 Dec-15
May-16
Oct-16
Apr-17 Page 39
Favorability of leaders | Non-Kurdistan Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people, organizations, and things, with 100 meaning a VERY FAVORABLE feeling; 0 meaning a VERY UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly favorable or unfavorable. % Favorable Δ Jan ’16
-2
+18
+25
55
52
+16
0
% Unfavorable
+7
-3
+1
+4
-3
6
5
6
100 80 60
66
40 20
0 -20
23
26
30
39 21
18
16
69
69
66
37
-40 -60 -80
63 84
88
Jabouri
Nujaifi
-100 Ameri
Sadr
Abadi
Obeidi
Maliki
Allawi
Hakim
Khanjar Page 40
Majority want to continue in Abadi’s direction I want to go in a very different direction than Haider al-Abadi is taking Iraq.
I want to continue in the direction Haider al-Abadi is taking Iraq.
∆100Jan’16 +23
-20
+8
-8
+16
-16
+55
-45
+4
0
80
77
74 60
40
20
55
53
33
51
28
31 17
18
0
Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 41
Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq
Page 42
Factors in a Post-ISIS Iraq
1. Inclusive institutions need to deliver on citizens’ high expectations for the future.
2. Prosecution of ISIS members and provision of compensation and psychological support for victims are key priorities.
3. Leaders need to develop a strong vision for the future—fighting corruption, creating jobs, and achieving long-term reconciliation.
Page 43
Iraqis split on whether country is unified Iraq is mostly a unified country
Iraq is mostly a divided country.
∆ Jan’15 unified 100
+3
+11
-26
+36
+3
80
81
60
57 40
45
48
47
38
45
49
45
20
15 0
Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 44
Belief that parties need to reconcile, not people Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is that Iraq will see greater cooperation between the political parties in the near future? Very/Somewhat
Generally speaking, how likely do you think it is that the different sects and ethnicities living in previously occupied ISIS areas will improve relations among themselves?
Little/Not
Very/Somewhat
100
100
80
80
76
70
60
54
40
48 50
70
70
63
61
40
38
37
32
30
20
74 60
59
Little/Not
20
22
19 0
27
28 17
0 Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan
Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 45
Removing quotas, PMU integration key to reconciliation Now, I am going to read you a list of ways to achieve reconciliation in Iraq. For each one, please tell me if you think it is a very effective way to achieve reconciliation in Iraq, somewhat effective, not very effective, or not an effective way at all to achieve reconciliation in Iraq. Very effective Ending sectarian quotas for government positions and jobs
Somewhat effective
42
Integrating the Popular Mobilization Units into the Iraqi Army
66
36
72
Holding a national dialogue on reconciliation that includes politicians, religious/tribal leaders, CSOs
33
72
Reducing influence of other countries
32
72
19
More cooperation among the political parties Decentralizing power to local governments so that they rely less on the central government
65
14 0
57 20
40
60
80 Page 46
Jobs and anti-corruption best way to stop ISIS’s return Now I am going to read you a list of things that some people think are important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge in Iraq. For each one please tell me if you think that thing is very important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge, somewhat important, just a little important, or not at all important to make sure that ISIS or other extremist organizations do not re-emerge Very important
Somewhat important
80
Creating more jobs and opportunities for youth
97
Fighting corruption
71
94
Creating tougher security measures to prevent sleeper cells in liberated areas
70
96
61
Revising the curriculum in schools to emphasize diversity and coexistence
91
58
De-radicalizing imams in mosques
89
56
Creating a national program to de-radicalize youth living under ISIS
92
47
Launching national dialogue to bring all sects together, decide the future of Iraq
87
42
Making all armed groups illegal other than the Iraqi Army, police, and Peshmerga Holding referendums to determine status of disputed territories Creating cross-sectarian coalitions between political parties
30
64
28
63
25
Giving more power to Prime Minister Abadi
54
23
Creating a new cross-sectarian political party
0
77
20
50 40
60
80
100
Page 47
Iraqis want prosecution for ISIS members Which ONE of the following do you think should be done to those who committed violent acts on behalf of ISIS?
Prosecute all accused ISIS detainees
76
Offer amnesty to individuals not found guilty of serious crimes such as murder, rape, or mutilation
8
Require those found guilty to provide financial compensation to victims
8
Grant amnesty to those who come forward and admit their wrongdoings
3 0
20 40 60 80 Page 48
Special courts preferred for prosecution of ISIS members Which ONE of the following would be most effective overseeing the process of prosecuting ISIS members and helping victims of their crimes?
38
Military tribunals
26
A special ISIS-related court
Local justice panels
9
The United Nations and international community
9
B’dad 59%
Kurdistan: 43%
8
The federal court
6
Tribes
0
10
20
30
40
50 Page 49
Helping ISIS’s victims When thinking about the victims of ISIS, which TWO of the following do you think should be done to help these victims?
73
Financial compensation
34
Psychological support
32
Establish a victims' support organization
17
Recognizing the Yezidi genocide
Kurdistan 52%
11
Assist sexual violence victims reintegrate into their communities A monument to those who died fighting ISIS
8
Record and make public the stories of all ISIS victims
8
Protect legal rights of children born as a result of sexual violence
8 0
20
40
60
80 Page 50
Differing views on who should distribute compensation Please tell me which ONE of these you MOST trust to distribute compensation to those most harmed by ISIS.
34
The central government
West 44% Kurdistan 36%
29
The United Nations
Provincial councils
13 11
Religious leaders and mosques
South 23%
4
Tribal leaders 0
10
20
30
40
50 Page 51
High expectations for government compensation In your opinion, do you think the central government should be required to compensate people who lost property or were injured by ISIS, with the compensation coming from the national budget, even if this means less revenue for salaries and development projects? Yes
100
No 94
80
87
84
81
60
65
40
20
12
13
6
16
14
0
Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 52
Kurdistan
Page 53
Mood rebounds a bit in Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you think that things in Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?
Right direction
Wrong direction
100
85 72 74
80
78
74 65
63
68
63
56
60
49
40
43 30
20
0
55
21 22 9
29
15
Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12
Jul-12
33 23
43
28 20
Dec-12 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Jan-16
Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17
Page 54
Barzani approval down; split on another term | Kurdistan Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the job Massoud Barzani is doing as President of Kurdistan?
Generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of Massoud Barzani serving another term as President of Kurdistan Approve
Δ Jan’16 Total
Disapprove 60
60
51
49 40
49
-3
+5 52
46
43
40
43
39 20
20
0 Jul-13
Apr-14
Jan-15
Oct-15
Jul-16
Apr-17
0
Approve
Disapprove Page 55
Kurdish referendum result a certainty | Kurdistan Now for something different. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements and for each one, I want you to tell me which statement comes closer to your point of view. Kurdistan should become an independent country. Kurdistan should remain an autonomous region of Iraq.
96
100
86 78
80
80
65 60 40 20
20
6
15
0 Feb-10 Aug-10 Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
2
9
Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Oct-16
Apr-17
Page 56
Miscellaneous
Page 57
Internet access Do you have regular access to the internet?
Yes
Do you have a mobile phone with internet access?
No
Yes
100
100
80
80
60
81 64
58
40
60
65
34
82
73
67
64
57
55 41
No
41
40
33
43 33
20
36 27
20
19
18
0
0 Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan
Total
Baghdad
South
West
Kurdistan Page 58