to the sector of exchange rates recentlyâ, said Aloisio Campelo Jr., Assistant .... Tito (intern). IBRE Call Center: +
Fevereiro de 2015 February 2015
Evolution from the previous month (seasonally adjusted)
The Industry Confidence Index (ICI), by the Getulio Vargas Foundation Jan/Dec
Feb/Jan
decreased 3.4% between January and February, going from 85.9 to 83.0 points, after advancing 1.9% in January and dropping 1.5% in December.
1.9%
-3.4%
The index remains at extremely low level in historical terms. The strongest decline since last June (-3.9%) was mainly determined by the worsening expectations for the coming months: the Expectations Index (EI)
Evolution on the same month of the previous year (no seasonal adjustment)
decreased 4.9% to 81.9 points, the same level of last September, and the lowest since April 2009 (80.9). The Present Situation Index (PSI) fell 2.1% to 84.0 points, returning to the level of December.
Jan-15/Jan-14
Feb-15/Feb-14 “The significant worsening of expectations for the coming months reflects the dismay of a sector that remains six quarters without growing and which
-14.1%
-15.7%
has negative outlook in the short term, despite the developments favorable to the sector of exchange rates recently”, said Aloisio Campelo Jr., Assistant Superintendent for Business Cycles at FGV / IBRE.
Industry Confidence Index (seasonally adjusted, data from jun/08 to feb/15) 120 115
Jun-10 = 115.4
110 105 100
Recent historical average = 102.2
95 90 85 80 75
ICI
ICI - quaterly moving average
Feb-15 = 83.0
70
All information contained in this report is seasonally adjusted, unless otherwise expressly indicated. More detailed information on the Industry Survey and ICI can be found on the website www.fgv.br/ibre.
Manufacturing Industry Survey Industry Confidence Index February 2015
The index that measures satisfaction with the overall business environment had the greatest contribution to the fall of the PSI in February, with a decrease of 5.5% over the previous month. The share of companies assessing the current business situation as good decreased to 8.2% from 12.6%, while the share of companies that assess it as poor remained relatively stable, changing to 31.3% from 31.2%. In Expectations, the negative highlight was the expected production indicator, down 8.4% over the previous month, to 109.1 points, the lowest level since last July (106.8 points). The share of companies that project to increase production within three months decreased to 30.5% from 32.4% between January and February; the share of those expecting to reduce production increased to 21.4% from 13.3%. The Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU) decreased 0.4 percentage point (pp) between January and February, going to 81.6% from 82.0%.
nd
th
The February 2015 edition collected information from 1,133 companies between the 2 and the 24 this month. st
The next release of the Industry Survey will take place on March 31 2015. The preview of this result will be th
released on March 24 .
2
Manufacturing Industry Survey Industry Confidence Index February 2015
Confidence Index
Period
Present Situation Index (points)
Expectations Index
Confidence Index
Seasonally Adjusted
Present Situation Index (points)
Expectations Index
No Seasonal Adjustment
Level of Capacity Utilization (LCU) (percentages) Adjusted
No Adjustment
sep/13
97.9
98.6
97.3
102.4
101.5
103.2
84.2%
85.0%
out/13
98.4
98.8
98.0
100.1
101.3
98.9
84.1%
85.3%
nov/13
99.1
100.1
98.2
96.5
101.2
91.8
84.3%
85.5%
dec/13
99.9
99.7
100.0
94.9
100.3
89.6
84.3%
84.9%
jan/14
99.5
100.9
98.1
94.5
99.3
89.6
84.6%
83.1%
feb/14
98.5
99.6
97.4
95.6
98.6
92.6
84.6%
83.8%
mar/14
96.2
96.6
95.8
97.6
98.2
97.0
84.4%
83.6%
apr/14
95.6
97.3
93.9
98.5
97.6
99.3
84.1%
83.7%
may/14
90.7
92.3
89.2
91.2
90.4
92.0
84.3%
84.1%
jun/14
87.2
90.1
84.4
87.9
88.7
87.2
83.5%
83.3%
jul/14
84.4
85.8
82.9
85.2
82.8
87.6
83.2%
83.1%
aug/14
83.4
82.7
84.1
86.5
82.5
90.4
83.2%
83.6%
sep/14
81.1
80.3
81.9
85.5
83.1
87.9
83.0%
83.8%
oct/14
82.6
79.3
85.9
84.3
81.8
86.8
82.0%
83.2%
nov/14
85.6
85.9
85.4
83.0
87.1
79.0
82.7%
83.9%
dec/14
84.3
84.0
84.6
79.3
84.5
74.2
81.3%
81.9%
jan/15
85.9
85.8
86.1
81.2
84.9
77.5
82.0%
80.5%
83.0
84.0
81.9
80.6
83.6
77.5
81.6%
80.8%
102.2
103.1
101.4
102.2
103.1
101.4
84.0%
84.0%
feb/15 Média histórica recente* * last 60 months
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
NO SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
Change over the previous month
Change over the same period of the previous year
Período
Índice de Confiança
Índice da Situação Atual
Índice de Expectativas
Período
Índice de Confiança
Índice da Situação Atual
Índice de Expectativas
sep/14
-2.8%
-2.9%
-2.6%
sep/14
-16.5%
-18.1%
-14.8%
oct/14
1.8%
-1.2%
4.9%
oct/14
-15.8%
-19.2%
-12.2%
nov/14
3.6%
8.3%
-0.6%
nov/14
-14.0%
-13.9%
-13.9%
dec/14
-1.5%
-2.2%
-0.9%
dec/14
-16.4%
-15.8%
-17.2%
jan/15
1.9%
2.1%
1.8%
jan/15
-14.1%
-14.5%
-13.5%
feb/15
-3.4%
-2.1%
-4.9%
feb/15
-15.7%
-15.2%
-16.3%
MANUFACTURRING INDUSTRY SURVEY Monthly Publication by FGV/IBRE – Brazilian Institute of Economics Director of IBRE: Luiz Guilherme Schymura de Oliveira Vice-Director: Vagner Laerte Ardeo Assistant Superintendent of Business Cycles: Aloisio Campelo Junior Survey Coordinator: Tabi Thuler Santos Technical team: Andressa Monteiro Durão e Nathália Carvalho Tito (intern) IBRE Call Center: +55 21 3799 6799 /
[email protected] / www.fgv.br/ibre
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