Information Exponentials Consultancy - TK Park

Information Exponentials

Consultancy 1

Scenario Planning: Key to dealing with uncertainty Steve O’Connor Adjunct Professor Charles Sturt University Steve O’Connor Information Exponentials Consultancy

2

A view from my recent City……………. Steve O’Connor Information Exponentials Consultancy

3

A view from my home……………. ...my flooded home

Steve O’Connor Information Exponentials Consultancy

4


5


6


7


8


9

What did you hope to get from this workshop? • • • •

Are you doing some planning ? Are you thinking about the future ? Are you thinking about your career ? Are you thinking about O U R profession ?

“Nearly half the jobs in [our marketplaces] are at high risk of ‘digital disruption’ in the next 20 years….”


SMH May 2, 2015:19

11

“65% of children entering primary school today will end up working in roles that don’t yet exist….”


12

Wired James DysonJan/Feb 20

“…..….Yet education is increasingly an expensive choice with uncertain outcomes” Steve O’Connor Information Exponentials Consultancy

13

Wired James DysonJan/Feb 20

Today • This Workshop is to set the scene • Describe the overall process • Address the use of imagination, creativity and scenario planning • Most of all, this Workshop is about YOU and any questions you have

Libraries under threat • Huge threat in the UK; Public being decimated – On top of previous cuts , 60% expect or have had staff cuts last year – 50% are actively looking or developing new ways of delivering library service – 72% have reduced revenue expenditure between 2011-12 and 2012-13

• British Library had 40% budget cut…. • US, Australia are similar but different

‘Wei Ji’ CRISIS Danger and Opportunity

16

Path gets narrower • As we look forwards the definition in the distance becomes very indistinct • The wider environment in the distance; the spaces to each side cannot be seen • It is only as we approach that point, do we gain greater clarity • So ‘seeing’ the future is difficult and predictability is not easily found 17

The cool eye of the Future • ‘Future’ is a very real force in our lives • We do not know what the future holds • We use the term very loosely and vaguely • Can be intimidated by the future, or the absence of certainty • Paths to certainty are crucial • The Futures is deep in the EYE… 18

19

20

Are we on the same page??

21

22

These three points articulated by Rick Anderson

23

What can you see?

24

What can you see?

26


27

28

EXERCISE • Identify examples of potential disruptions: – What are YOU good at? – What Should YOU be good at?

• Should be within 3 year time-frame

Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011

30

Changing the mind-set • Scenario Planning as a process, but not a solution • Scenarios are a form of engagement in the solution • Plan from the Future rather than in the present 31

The Rear vision view…. • We can only judge how far we have come by looking backwards • We can only understand our path to the future with a ‘rear vision mirror’

Photo credit: David Hobbs

32

The Future Is Not Linear…. ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

DECISION POINTS SCENARIO PATH OPTIONS

NOW 33

34

Extinction Timeline Summary

2018

Libraries, Blackberries, Video rental stores, Post Offices

2020

Copyright

2025

Desktop Computers, Spelling, Blogging, Twitter( in 140 /260 words or less) http://www.nowandnext.com/PDF/extinction_timeline.pdf Steve O’Connor Information Exponentials Consultancy

35


36


37

Some ideas for thought • ‘Millennials’ are becoming the dominant Generation • ‘Library’ is the most TRUSTED brand • Library Leadership is being immersed in GLAM • Publishers are themselves facing disruption • Disruption is moving through Library architectures • What is a Journal shaped like from TODAY? Steve O’Connor Information Exponentials Consultancy

38

Disruption


39

Disrupted models • IBM Mainframe disrupted by Personal Computer • Diaries… Paper disrupted by PDA • Diaries, Contacts disrupted by PDA, then Mobile phone • Nokia mobile phone disrupted by multifunctioned iPhone, HTA etc • Kodak industries disrupted by Digital technologies Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011

40

Five Principles of Disruption 1. Companies depend on customers and investors for resources *Do n 2. Small markets do not solve growth needs of large companies 3. Markets that do not exist cannot be analysed

*Market


41

r e s e a r c h a n

Five Principles of Disruption 1. Companies depend on customers and investors for resources *Do n

*Market


42

r e s e a r c h a n

Five Principles …….. 4.

Organisation’s capabilities define its disabilities *Capability in processes and values…work against organisation implementing change

*Technology improvement provides greater performance than market can absorb

5.

Technology supply may not equal market demand


43

Five Principles …….. 4.

Organisation’s capabilities define its disabilities *Capability in processes and values…work against organisation implementing change

*Technology improvement provides greater performance than market can absorb


44

As are Airline FF Programs, Real Estate Agents and Banks Steve O’Connor Information Exponentials Consultancy

45

EXERCISE • Identify examples of potential disruptions: – What is YOUR LIBRARY good at? – What Should YOUR LIBRARY be good at?

• Should be within 3 year time-frame

Has the Library model been disrupted?

47

More about ….. • Insiders and Outsiders • Over time most of us become Insiders as we master our discipline • InnoCentive illustrates the power of Outsiders • We need to be Outsiders • Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole 48

Growth of Digital…..

Growth of Digital…. Information Delivered to Library’s Clients 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%

Web

40% 30%

Digital

20% 10%

Print

0% 1

2

3

Year

4

5

EXERCISE • What is your prediction of the content mix NOW and in 3 years time? NOW

• Web • Digital • Print

% % %

3 YEARS

% % %

Growth of Digital…. Information Delivered to Library’s Clients

100% 90% 80% 70% Web

60%

50% Digital

40% 30%

Print

20% 10% 0% 1

2

3

4

5

What is Scenario Planning? • Process allows options to remain ‘in consideration’ • Allowing all ideas to come to the fore • Recognising that we do not have one future, but many • How many scenarios? 54

What are Scenarios? • • • •

The Long View Outside-in thinking Multiple Perspectives Allow ourselves time to come to a new view, multiple views

55

Imagination and Stories • Strategic Planning is an important process but effectively it concerns the allocation of resources • Scenario Planning seeks to use the imagination to conjure up new, different options • Imagination needs to be strengthened so that improbable ideas, impractical ideas are not dismissed • Imagination and creativity liberates us from past thinking 56

Business Models


58

Traditional Library Business Model USER as AUTHOR

USER as READER

PUBLISHER

LIBRARIAN as FUNDER


59

Traditional Library Business Model USER as AUTHOR Intellectual Property Rights

USER as READER

PUBLISHER

LIBRARIAN as FUNDER


60

Traditional Library Business Model USER as AUTHOR Intellectual Property Rights

USER as READER

PUBLISHER $$$

LIBRARIAN as FUNDER


61

Future Library Business Model ???? USER as AUTHOR

USER as READER

PUBLISHER

LIBRARIAN as FUNDER


62

Future Library Business Model ???? USER as AUTHOR

USER as READER

PUBLISHER

LIBRARIAN as FUNDER


63

Future Library Business Model (s) ?? USER as AUTHOR

USER as READER

PUBLISHER

LIBRARIAN as FUNDER


64

As are Airline FF Programs, Real Estate Agents and Banks Steve O’Connor Information Exponentials Consultancy

65

Individual

Community

Physical/ Virtual Creating

Physical

Virtual

Individual

N O W

Community

3 Years Physical/ Virtual Creating

Physical

Virtual

69

P E O P L E

COLLECTIONS

P E O P L E

COLLECTIONS

P E O P L E

COLLECTIONS

P E O P L E

COLLECTIONS

74

The Learning Hub “ The Library in 2011 continues to be located on a land-locked campus, in the middle of one of the most densely populated parts of the world, but is now everywhere else at the same time. Its strong reputation for being busy is still true but it has successfully fused the information and study worlds; fused the physical and digital into one; fused locally produced and the commercially produced information for the benefit of the community. This is a seamless world of quality information from the web, large sets of digital books and journals as well as great collections of books. The information is now even more digital and wherever possible print materials are delivered digitally. This is what is now called the LEARNING HUB a more comfortable and dynamic learning environment . The Library has focused its services more on outreach than previously. In reaching out it is both visiting the community wherever it is and also bringing more of that same community to the re-vitalised Library building. In this future, the traditional functions of the Library have been redefined and re-focused to facilitate the growth of knowledge.”

76

Possibilities abound… …those owned by our Customers will always be richer 79

Information Exponentials

and Partners 80