Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Forest Management in

2.1.2 Habitat Suitability Modeling of Forest Classes. ...... 16 (SPSS, 2007) were used to model the habitat suitability of forest classes. The first two ... modeling usually results in high predictive power at local spatial and temporal scales. However ...
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Strategic Guidelines for Responding to Impacts of Global Climate Change on Forests in the Southern Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)

April, 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgement..................................................................................................................................... 4 List of Contributors ................................................................................................................................... 4 Explanation of Main Terms....................................................................................................................... 5 Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................ 5 c Executive Summary................................................................................................................................... 6 Forests in the Caucasus Region .......................................................................................................... 6 Goods and Services Provided by the Region’s Forests....................................................................... 6 Forests and Climate Change ............................................................................................................... 6 Responding to the Impacts of Climate Change................................................................................... 7 Adapting to Changes in the Forest...................................................................................................... 8 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for the Southern Caucasus Countries ...................................... 9 c 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 10 1.1 The Caucasus Ecoregion 10 Forest of the Southern Caucasus ..................................................... 11 c 2. Forest and Climate Study ...................................................................................................................... 16 2.1 Methods ........................................................................................................................................ 17 2.1.1 Background Information ..................................................................................................... 17 2.1.2 Habitat Suitability Modeling of Forest Classes................................................................... 18 2.1.3 Spatial Trend Analyses........................................................................................................ 21 3. Results ................................................................................................................................................... 23 3.1 Actual Forest Cover vs. Potential Forest Cover............................................................................ 23 3.1.1 Study Area Level................................................................................................................. 23 3.1.2 Bioclimatic Region Level.................................................................................................... 25 3.1.3 Country Level...................................................................................................................... 32 3.2 Modeled Present vs. Modeled Futures .......................................................................................... 37 3.2.1 Modeled Present vs. A2a Model ......................................................................................... 37 3.2.2 Modeled Present vs. B2a Model.......................................................................................... 42 3.3. Vertical Shift of Forest Classes.................................................................................................... 48 3.3.1 Study Area Level.................................................................................................................