Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Forest Management in

Strategies for Responding to the Impacts of Climate Change on Forests . ..... area management can help ensure adaptation to climate change by managing ...
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Strategic Guidelines for Responding to Impacts of Global Climate Change on Forests in the Southern Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia)

April, 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgement..................................................................................................................................... 4 List of Contributors ................................................................................................................................... 4 Explanation of Main Terms....................................................................................................................... 5 Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................ 5 c Executive Summary................................................................................................................................... 6 Forests in the Caucasus Region .......................................................................................................... 6 Goods and Services Provided by the Region’s Forests....................................................................... 6 Forests and Climate Change ............................................................................................................... 6 Responding to the Impacts of Climate Change................................................................................... 7 Adapting to Changes in the Forest...................................................................................................... 8 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for the Southern Caucasus Countries ...................................... 9 c 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 10 1.1 The Caucasus Ecoregion 10 Forest of the Southern Caucasus ..................................................... 11 c 2. Forest and Climate Study ...................................................................................................................... 16 2.1 Methods ........................................................................................................................................ 17 2.1.1 Background Information ..................................................................................................... 17 2.1.2 Habitat Suitability Modeling of Forest Classes................................................................... 18 2.1.3 Spatial Trend Analyses........................................................................................................ 21 3. Results ................................................................................................................................................... 23 3.1 Actual Forest Cover vs. Potential Forest Cover............................................................................ 23 3.1.1 Study Area Level................................................................................................................. 23 3.1.2 Bioclimatic Region Level.................................................................................................... 25 3.1.3 Country Level...................................................................................................................... 32 3.2 Modeled Present vs. Modeled Futures .......................................................................................... 37 3.2.1 Modeled Present vs. A2a Model ......................................................................................... 37 3.2.2 Modeled Present vs. B2a Model.......................................................................................... 42 3.3. Vertical Shift of Forest Classes.................................................................................................... 48 3.3.1 Study Area Level.................................................................................................................