International recessions - UC Davis

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International recessions∗ Fabrizio Perri Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Vincenzo Quadrini University of Southern California

February 2016

Abstract Macro developments leading up to the 2008 crisis displayed an unprecedented degree of international synchronization. Before the crisis all G7 countries experienced credit growth, and around the time of the Lehman bankruptcy they all faced sharp and large contractions in both real and financial activity. Using a two-country model with financial frictions we show that a global liquidity shortage induced by pessimistic self-fulfilling expectations can quantitatively generate patterns like those observed in the data. The model also suggests that with more international financial integration crises are less frequent but, when they hit, they are larger and more synchronized across countries. Keywords: Credit shocks, global liquidity, international co-movement JEL classification: F41, F44, G01



We thank Mark Aguiar and three anonymous referees for excellent comments, Philippe Bacchetta, Ariel Burstein, Fabio Ghironi, Jean Imbs, Anastasios Karantounias, Thomas Laubach, Enrique Mart´ınez-Garc´ıa, Dominik Menno, Paolo Pesenti, Xavier Ragot, Etsuro Shioji, and Raf Wouters for thoughtful discussions, and seminar participants at several institutions and conferences for very useful comments and suggestions. Perri acknowledges financial support from the European Research Council under Grant 313671. Quadrini acknowledges financial support from NSF Grant 1460013. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System

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Introduction

One of the most striking features of the 2008 crisis is that in the midst of it—during the quarter following the Lehman bankruptcy—all major industrialized countries experienced extraordinarily large and synchronized contractions in both real and financial aggregates. Motivated by this evidence, we develop a simple theory of financial crises in open economies, aiming to make two contributions. The first is to argue that the 2008 crisis could have been the result of a global liquidity shortage induced by pessimistic self-fulfilling expectations. We do so by showing that crisis patterns predicted by our theory are quantitatively consistent with many features of the macro-economy observed before and during the 2008 crisis in the U.S. and other G7 countries. The second contribution is to show how international financial integration affects the probability and the size of crises. In particular with more international financial integration crises are less frequent but, when they hit, they are larger and more synchronized across countries. This finding can have important normative implications, in light of the recent policy debate on the desirability of capital markets integration. Our analysis is based on a two-country model where firms in both countries use credit to finance hiring and investment, and where the availability of credit depends on the value of collateral, that is, the resale price of assets. The value of collateral is endogenous in the model and depends on the market liquidity (access to credit) which in turn depends on the value of collateral. This interdependence between the value of collateral and liquidity creates the conditions for which the tightness of credit constraints can emerge endogenously as multiple self-fulfilling equilibria. In ‘good’ equilibria, the market expects high resale prices for the assets of defaulting firms, which allows for looser borrowing constraints. As a result of the high borrowing capacity, firms are not liquidity constrained and ex post there are firms with the required liquidity to purchase the assets of defaulting firms. This keeps the resale price high and rationalizes, ex post, the ex ante expectation of high collateral values. The higher availability of credit in good equilibria also means that firms borrow more. As