Dec 4, 2017 - a recovery in house prices and plentiful jobs have seen consumer ... manufacturing and services remained i
INVESTMENT NOTE 4 DECEMBER 2017
A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER DAVE MOHR & IZAK ODENDAAL, OLD MUTUAL MULTI-MANAGERS
4 DECEMBER 2017
WEALTH INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTE
themselves whether the news is good (or bad) but whether the good news is priced in. Unfortunately, bubbles tend to burst only when many latecomers are sucked in by the lure of quick riches. Equity markets have been supported by favourable conditions on the ground. Global economic growth is accelerating, inflation is low (but positive) and the interest rate outlook is benign. The US economy grew 2.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, the fastest pace in two years (but still below the pre-2008 average of 3%). Surging equity markets, a recovery in house prices and plentiful jobs have seen consumer confidence rise to the highest level in a decade. Consumers also benefit from low inflation. The personal consumption inflation rate – the Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures – slowed slightly to 1.6% year on year in October. Nominal wage growth remains sluggish though, and while this is one factor weighing on household spending, the absence of accelerating wages despite low and falling unemployment (4.1% in October) suggests interest rate increases will be very gradual. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike its key policy interest rate by 25 basis points in December, but it is the pace of increases next year and beyond that is crucial.
A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER
Global equity returns are on track for a strong year. The MSCI All Countries World Index (Acwi), a broad index of developed and emerging market stocks, returned 1.98% in November to end the month at a record high level. With one month to go, the 2017 return is at 22.6% in US dollars. The index has returned 250% (or 15% annualised) from the lowest point of the global financial crisis in March 2009. Although investing in global equities over this period has been profitable, it hasn’t been a straight line. There was a bear market (according to the traditional definition of a 20% loss) between April and October 2011, while the 18% loss from May 2015 to January 2016 came close. Worries about the eight-year length of the rally are therefore somewhat misguided. At 16.2, the forward price:earnings ratio of the Acwi is slightly above the long-term average of 15.7.
Eurozone growth also accelerated to 2.5% in the third quarter, the fastest rate in six years. Confidence surveys show that businesses (across a range of sectors) and consumers are extremely optimistic about the economy, and suggests solid growth can persist. In China, credit conditions are tightening as the authorities attempt to rein in rampant lending growth and shadow banking activity. Corporate and government bond yields are rising and house price growth is slowing. However, November’s purchasing managers’ indices for manufacturing and services remained in solidly positive territory and support the view that China’s growth rate will fall gradually over time, instead of rapidly.
US listed shares account for about half of global equity market capitalisation. The S&P 500 returned 3% on the way to a new record high level. The US equity benchmark has returned 20% this year. The US is the most expensive with the forward PE of 19.8 above the longterm average due to the best uninterrupted run of the major markets.
ANOTHER POSITIVE MONTH ON THE JSE Local equities also had another positive month, even outperforming global markets in dollar terms. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (Alsi) broke through 60 000 index points for the first time during November, but slipped below that level on the last trading day. Nevertheless, the Alsi returned 1.5% in November, including dividends and 21.4% for the year. The FTSE/JSE Shareholder Weighted Index (Swix) returned 3% in November, lifting the year-to-date return to 21%. The rally on the JSE has been driven by large-cap shares. The mid-cap index only gained 2.5% year-to-date while the small-cap index was marginally negative. In contrast, the Top 40 index returned 24%. The Swix’s forward PE of 16.8 is high relative to its long-term average, but the index has changed considerably over the past decade and is now dominated by shares that are priced in global markets. The valuations of the domestically focused shares generally reflect the economic outlook which was recently described by Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago as “subdued but positive”.
Emerging markets were flat in US dollars in November, but the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has still returned an astonishing 32.9% in 2017 to date, handsomely outperforming developed markets (though the period of underperformance between 2011 and 2015 still has to be made up). Emerging markets are still attractively priced relative to developed markets, with a forward PE of 14.
BUBBLE, BUBBLE, TOIL AND TROUBLE? While concerns over a bubble in global equities are largely misplaced, Bitcoin is firmly in bubble territory. It jumped 70% in November to close above $10 000 for the first time. In the last week of November alone, it surged 28% (which included a 20% decline along the way). These kinds of rapid price increases (interspersed with sharp declines) are typical of a speculative mania. In fact, the last time such price surges were witnessed was probably during the tulip and South Sea bubbles of the 17th and 18th centuries. While the underlying blockchain technology is useful and might well become part of our day-to-day lives, its fundamental value cannot have increased that much in the space of 11 months. Daily Bitcoin transactions have risen 30% this year, but the price has increased tenfold. Investors should not ask
SUBDUED BUT POSITIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Recent evidence of the “subdued” part of that characterisation includes business confidence and credit data. Total bank loans to the private sector advanced by only 5.2% in October. The growth in borrowing
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WEALTH INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTE
CHART 1:
by companies in particular has slowed down sharply from 11% year on year in January to 7% in October. Household borrowing growth has remained in the 3% to 4% range for the past three years (adjusting for the removal of African Bank loans from the data), below the pace of income growth. Therefore, consumers have been deleveraging.
MSCI ALL COUNTRIES WORLD INDEX 1 000
MSCI All Countries World Index US$
900 800
Business confidence remains depressed. The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index remained in negative territory in the fourth quarter, but improved marginally from the previous quarter. The BER noted that political uncertainty is perceived to be a bigger constraint for businesses now than at any time in the past. The constant (probably exaggerated) worry over the potential impact of downgrades will not have helped.
700 600 500 400 300
Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov
07 08 08 08 09 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17
200
But there is also evidence supporting an improving outlook: South Africa posted a surprising R4.5 billion trade surplus in October. It is typically a deficit month as imports surge ahead of the festive season and year-end. For the first ten months of the year, the surplus is a healthy R51 billion which compares very favourably with the R10 billion deficit for the same period in 2016. This improvement in South Africa’s external balance – largely due to robust iron ore and coal exports – is one of the factors supporting the economy’s gradual recovery. The Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index increased for the fourth month in a row in November. However, at 48.6 index points it remains below the key 50 level that separates positive from negative growth.
Source: Datastream
CHART 2: RMB/BER BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX 100 90 80 70
Encouragingly, the forward-looking component is positive, as new sales orders exceed stock levels, suggesting production will have to be ramped up. New vehicle sales increased by 7.2% in November compared to the same month last year, the sixth month in a row of positive year on year growth.
60 50 40 30 20 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
LOCAL BONDS WEAKER WITH OTHER EMERGING MARKETS
1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017
10
Bond returns were negative for a second consecutive month in November. The All Bond Index (Albi) lost almost 1% which capped the year-to-date return at 4.3%. South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield increased from 9.1% to 9.3% during the month, but traded as high as 9.5% ahead of the ratings announcements. In other words, yields declined after S&P Global downgraded the sovereign rating and Moody’s placed it on a negative watch. Other emerging markets also saw bonds selling off during the month. Brazil’s 10-year yield increased from 9.9% to 10.4%, while the equivalent Turkish yield rose from 11.5% to 12%. India, which was upgraded by Moody’s for the first time in 14 years during the month, saw its yield rise from 6.8% to 7%. Broadly speaking, emerging market yields have followed US yields higher since early September.
RMB/BER Business Confidence Index
Neutral Level Source: Datastream
TO DECEMBER AND BEYOND The rand gained 3.5% against the dollar in November despite the downgrade. The rand ended the month at R13.66 per dollar, only a few cents below where it started the year. This was despite all the bad domestic news since January, including Cabinet reshuffles, the downgrades to junk status and a technical recession. Ultimately, global factors overshadow local conditions when it comes to the overall direction of South African markets. Local events can cause short-term volatility, but the trend is determined internationally, and global conditions are currently still favourable. It is important to remember this as political uncertainty will increase around the ANC’s elective conference later this month.
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4 DECEMBER 2017
WEALTH INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTE
EQUITIES - GLOBAL DESCRIPTION
INDEX
WEEK
MONTH-TO-DATE
YEAR-TO-DATE
1 YEAR
Global
MSCI World
US$
2 077.0
1.17%
1.96%
18.62%
21.32%
United States
S&P 500
US$
2 648.0
1.96%
2.83%
18.27%
20.42%
Europe
MSCI Europe
US$
1 771.0
0.57%
0.06%
20.39%
26.59%
Britain
FTSE 100
US$
9 830.0
-0.40%
-1.29%
11.55%
15.81%
Germany
DAX
US$
1 439.0
0.28%
0.77%
18.42%
39.84%
Japan
Nikkei 225
US$
202.3
-0.23%
4.41%
20.02%
26.98%
Emerging Markets
MSCI Emerging Markets
US$
1 121.0
-2.69%
0.18%
30.05%
29.90%
Brazil
MSCI Brazil
US$
1 947.0
-4.47%
-3.18%
16.45%
16.73%
China
MSCI China
US$
86.8
-3.85%
1.54%
48.28%
42.20%
India
MSCI India
US$
582.7
-0.86%
-0.74%
30.35%
30.35%
South Africa
MSCI South Africa
US$
556.0
2.21%
8.81%
22.47%
29.00%
CURRENCY INDEX VALUE
EQUITIES - SOUTH AFRICA (TR UNLESS INDICATED OTHERWISE) DESCRIPTION
INDEX
WEEK
MONTH-TO-DATE
YEAR-TO-DATE
1 YEAR
All Share (Capital Only)
All Share (Capital Index)
Rand
59 773.0
-0.87%
1.34%
18.00%
19.05%
All Share
All Share (Total Return)
Rand
8 479.0
-0.80%
1.46%
21.37%
22.55%
TOP 40/Large Caps
Top 40
Rand
7 547.0
-1.27%
1.42%
24.70%
25.37%
Mid Caps
Mid Cap
Rand
16 206.0
1.91%
2.31%
2.50%
6.63%
Small Companies
Small Cap
Rand
20 241.0
2.29%
-2.74%
-0.87%
0.70%
Resources
Resource 20
Rand
2 310.6
-3.77%
-1.52%
18.02%
13.62%
Industrials
Industrial 25
Rand
15 861.0
-1.08%
1.59%
31.59%
33.97%
Financials
Financial 15
Rand
8 842.0
1.60%
5.88%
13.30%
16.96%
Listed Property
SA Listed Property
Rand
2 364.2
2.06%
1.91%
12.42%
17.16%
WEEK
MONTH-TO-DATE
YEAR-TO-DATE
1 YEAR
0.23%
1.48%
8.90%
6.15%
WEEK
MONTH-TO-DATE
YEAR-TO-DATE
1 YEAR 5.95%
CURRENCY INDEX VALUE
FIXED INTEREST - GLOBAL DESCRIPTION
INDEX
Global Government Bonds
Citi Group WGBI
CURRENCY INDEX VALUE US$
948.7
FIXED INTEREST - SOUTH AFRICA DESCRIPTION
INDEX
All Bond
BESA ALBI
Rand
556.5
0.24%
-0.97%
4.34%
Government Bonds
BESA GOVI
Rand
554.7
0.22%
-1.00%
4.41%
6.04%
Corporate Bonds
SB JSE Credit Indices
Rand
124.6
-2.62%
-6.18%
-13.80%
-19.86%
Inflation Linked Bonds
BESA CILI
Rand
240.8
0.63%
-3.00%
-1.96%
-2.46%
Cash
STEFI Composite
Rand
380.8
0.14%
0.58%
6.92%
7.57%
CURRENCY INDEX VALUE
COMMODITIES DESCRIPTION
INDEX
WEEK
MONTH-TO-DATE
YEAR-TO-DATE
1 YEAR
Brent Crude Oil
Brent Crude ICE
US$
62.6
-1.15%
2.67%
9.88%
20.44%
Gold
Gold Spot
US$
1 275.0
-1.09%
0.31%
10.77%
8.60%
Platinum
Platinum Spot
US$
940.0
0.53%
2.06%
4.10%
3.07%
1 YEAR
CURRENCY INDEX VALUE
CURRENCIES DESCRIPTION
INDEX
WEEK
MONTH-TO-DATE
YEAR-TO-DATE
ZAR/Dollar
ZAR/USD
Rand
13.66
1.70%
3.38%
0.24%
3.17%
ZAR/Pound
ZAR/GBP
Rand
18.56
-0.48%
1.13%
-10.02%
-5.06%
ZAR/Euro
ZAR/EUR
Rand
16.18
1.66%
1.73%
-10.76%
-7.79%
Dollar/Euro
USD/EUR
US$
1.19
0.00%
-2.10%
-11.60%
-10.92%
Dollar/Pound
USD/GBP
US$
1.34
-0.83%
-0.87%
-8.33%
-6.83%
Dollar/Yen
USD/JPY
US$
0.01
1.12%
-1.12%
-3.37%
-2.25%
CURRENCY INDEX VALUE
Source: I-Net, figures as at 1 December 2017
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4 DECEMBER 2017
WEALTH INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTE
THE WEEK AHEAD SOUTH AFRICA •
Third quarter gross domestic product growth
•
Standard Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index
•
Mining and manufacturing production
US •
Trade balance
•
ISM Non-manufacturing Index
•
Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate
•
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
EUROPE •
Eurozone producer inflation
•
Eurozone retail sales
•
UK industrial production
CHINA •
Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
•
Foreign exchange reserves
The Old Mutual Wealth Investment Note is published on a weekly basis to keep our clients and financial planners informed of what is happening in financial markets and the economy and to share our insights. Markets are often very volatile in the short term and similarly, economic data releases or central bank actions may cause concerns for investors. This does not mean that investors should take action based on the most recent events. It is better to be disciplined and remain invested in well-diversified portfolios that are designed to achieve long-term objectives. Our Strategy Funds are actively managed, with asset allocation changes based on valuations and in anticipation of future real returns, and not in response to the most recent market noise. The future is always uncertain and that is why our Strategy Funds are diversified and managed with a long-term focus.
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