Although the Company has taken reasonable care in preparing the ... trends, data contained in the Company's records and
0
January, 2016
INVESTOR PRESENTATION An integrated energy player focused on exploration and production INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
DISCLAIMER
1
RCA figures except otherwise noted. By attending or reading this presentation, you acknowledge and agree to be bound by the following limitations and restrictions. This presentation has been prepared by GALP Energia, SGPS, S.A. (“GALP Energia” or the “Company”) and may be amended and supplemented, but may not be relied upon for the purposes of entering into any transaction. This presentation is strictly confidential, is being distributed to a limited range of persons solely for their own information and may not (i) be distributed to the media or disclosed to any other person in any jurisdiction, nor (ii) be reproduced in any form, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of the Company. Although the Company has taken reasonable care in preparing the information contained herein, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein or any other material discussed at the presentation. Neither the Company nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, shareholders, representatives, agents, employees or advisors shall have any liability whatsoever (including in negligence or otherwise) for any loss or liability howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents or any other material discussed at the presentation or otherwise arising in connection with this presentation. This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or otherwise acquire securities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation nor any part thereof, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever in any jurisdiction. This presentation is made to and directed only at persons (i) who are outside the United Kingdom, (ii) having professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2005 (the "Order") or (iii) high net worth entities, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as "Relevant Persons"). This presentation must not be acted or relied on by persons who are not Relevant Persons. Neither this presentation nor any copy of it, nor the information contained herein, in whole or in part, may be taken or transmitted into, or distributed, directly or indirectly in or to the United States. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of U.S. securities laws. No securities of the Company have been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933 or the securities laws of any state of the United States, and unless so registered may not be offered or sold except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws. Matters discussed in this presentation may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements other than in respect of historical facts. The words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intends”, “estimate”, “will”, “may”, "continue”, “should” and similar expressions usually identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include statements regarding: objectives, goals, strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans, events or performance and potential for future growth; liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures; economic outlook and industry trends; energy demand and supply; developments of GALP Energia’s markets; the impact of regulatory initiatives; and the strength of GALP Energia’s competitors. The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of historical operating trends, data contained in the Company’s records and other data available from third parties. Although GALP Energia believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, these assumptions are inherently subject to significant known and unknown risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors which are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond its control. Important factors that may lead to significant differences between the actual results and the statements of expectations about future events or results include the Company’s business strategy, industry developments, financial market conditions, uncertainty of the results of future projects and operations, plans, objectives, expectations and intentions, among others. Such risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other important factors could cause the actual results of GALP Energia or the industry to differ materially from those results expressed or implied in this presentation by such forward-looking statements. The information, opinions and forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only as at the date of this presentation, and are subject to change without notice. GALP Energia and its respective representatives, agents, employees or advisors do not intend to, and expressly disclaim any duty, undertaking or obligation to, make or disseminate any supplement, amendment, update or revision to any of the information, opinions or forwardlooking statements contained in this presentation to reflect any change in events, conditions or circumstances.
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
AN INTEGRATED OIL & GAS COMPANY
2
Galp Energia Group Market capitalisation c.€9 bn1
Exploration & Production
Refining & Marketing
Gas & Power
Key Financials 2014 Ebitda: €1.3 bn
2014 Ebitda: €444 m
2014 Ebitda: €412 m
2014 Ebitda: €438 m
2014 capex: €1.1 bn
Brazil2
Refining
Natural Gas
87% capex allocated to upstream
Mozambique
Marketing Iberia
NG infrastructure
Net debt/Ebitda: 1.1x3
Angola
Marketing Africa
Power
Liquidity: €3.1 bn3
Committed to sustainable and responsible growth
1Market
capitalization as of the end of December 2015 Energia holds 70% and Sinopec holds the remaining 30% 3As of the end of Sept-15, including loan to Sinopec as cash. Ratio considers net debt including loan to Sinopec as cash equivalent, plus €168 m Sinopec Shareholder Loan to Petrogal Brasil as debt, and LTM Ebitda RCA €1,661 m 2Galp
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
FREE FLOAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEAR FUTURE Galp Energia shareholding structure
3
Free float evolution Free float Of which, institutional investors in:
2.45%
2.11% 2.05% 2.03%
2.01% 2.01%1
North America UK France
7.00%
c.35% c.25% c.10%
7.00%
61.66%
Parpública exchangeable bonds (September 2017)
Potential Free float @2017
54.66%
54.66%
38.34%
Free float @Jan 2016
1Qualified
holding announced on December 18, 2015 which includes the funds managed by CI Investments and Black Creek Investment Management. Black Creek announced on December 9, 2015 an indirect qualified holding of 2.05% Note: Parpública’s 7% stake placed through exchangeable bonds
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LIST OF CONTENTS
4
DELIVERING GROWTH IN UPSTREAM STEADY CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSTREAM AND GAS ACTIVITIES STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION KEY TAKEAWAYS
APPENDIX
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
GALP ENERGIA HOLDS WORLD-CLASS UPSTREAM ASSETS
5
Development plans of Atapu, Berbigão and Sururu fields submitted to ANP GREATER IARA
Carbonate reservoir with excellent porosity and permeability
Supergiant development project with four FPSOs already producing
CARCARÁ
JÚPITER/SÉPIA
LULA/IRACEMA
Development concepts of Júpiter giant reservoir of oil, gas and condensates being studied and Sépia development project being prepared
ROVUMA – AREA 4 GIIP over 85 tcf, ranking Rovuma LNG project as one of the largest in the world
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LULA/IRACEMA: EXECUTION OF A WORLD-CLASS PROJECT
6
BM-S-11 (LULA/IRACEMA)
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LULA/IRACEMA: SOLID TRACK-RECORD
7
Production ramp-up
FPSO #3 (CID. MANGARATIBA) Iracema South (150 kbopd) 5th producer well connected in Nov., leading to plateau Full ramp-up achieved in 13 months
(kboepd)
FPSO #2 (CID. PARATY) Lula NE (120 kbopd) Plateau production since Sep-14 Average availability of c.95%
FPSO #4 (CID. ITAGUAÍ) Iracema North (150 kbopd) Production started on July 31 and three producer wells currently connected 14 wells already drilled
FPSO #1 (CID. ANGRA DOS REIS) Lula Pilot (100 kbopd) Plateau production since Jun-12 Average availability of c.95%
YE2010 First oil
YE2011
YE2012
YE2013
YE2014
9M15
# wells drilled/year
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LULA/IRACEMA: FPSO #5 AND #6 ON TRACK
8
FPSO #6 (CID. SAQUAREMA)
FPSO #5 (CID. MARICÁ) (150 kbopd)
(150 kbopd)
FPSO left BRASA/SBM shipyard in December 2015 to final location at Lula field
Topsides integration performed by BRASA/SBM at Mauá shipyard, in Brazil
Expected to be deployed in Lula Alto during 1H16
Expected to be deployed in Lula Central during 1H16
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LULA/IRACEMA: EXECUTING MITIGATION MEASURES ON REPLICANTS
9
Gas/CO2 injection and compression modules awarded in May New contracts with lower execution risk and neutral impact on cost and on Galp’s expected delivery timings
Three replicants expected for Lula during 2017 and 2018 (Lula South; Lula North; Lula Ext. South)
REPLICANTS (150 kbopd)
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LULA/IRACEMA: COST OPTIMISATION OPPORTUNITIES
10
Drilling and completion (# days)
-21% YoY
Benefitting from learning curve and optimised well design
Negotiating new rig rates
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LULA/IRACEMA: SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY FACTOR UPSIDE
11
Recovery factor (oil) %
40% Water/Gas injection 28%
4D seismic Infill drilling WAG Subsea separation Technology development
Current recovery factor
Ambition
Each 1 p.p. increase in oil recovery results in incremental c.200 mmbbl gross
Note: Galp Energia view
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
GREATER IARA: MULTISTAGE DEVELOPMENT FOR THREE SEPARATE ACCUMULATIONS
12
Significant resource base in a challenging heterogeneous reservoir Development plans of Atapu, Berbigão and Sururu fields submitted to ANP in June Three FPSO replicant units: Atapu South and Atapu North in 2018 and Berbigão/Sururu in 2019
BERBIGÃO/SURURU/ATAPU
Pilot tie-back of Sururu to Atapu North FPSO expected by 2018 to further appraise this field
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
DE-RISKING OTHER RELEVANT PRE-SALT PROJECTS
CARCARÁ BM-S-8 Carcará North and Carcará NW confirmed the discovery of light oil and the extension of the discovery
13
JÚPITER BM-S-24 Reviewing timing of appraisal activity
DST in Carcará North proved high quality and productivity
Focus on maturing development solution for oil and condensates
DoC submission extended until March 2018 and gas evacuation solution crucial for development
Sépia East to be unitised with Sépia and expected to start production in 2019 INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
MOZAMBIQUE: PROGRESSING WITH AREA 4 PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
14
Over 85 tcf GIIP identified
Project well located to benefit from LNG market dynamics between Asia, Europe and South America Potential for economies of scale in onshore LNG project Supportive legal framework established at YE2014
ROVUMA - AREA 4
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
MOZAMBIQUE: FOCUSED ON INITIAL DEVELOPMENT PHASE
15
CORAL FLNG PROJECT
MAMBA ONSHORE LNG PROJECT
1 FLNG (2.5-3.5 mtpa)
2x5 mtpa LNG trains (1st phase)
FEED and EPCIC proposals received for FLNG project
Onshore development project progressing
LNG long term offtake agreements at advanced stage of negotiation
Advanced unitisation negotiations with Area 1
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
ANGOLA: MATURE FIELDS BEING COMPLEMENTED BY NEW DEVELOPMENTS
BLOCK 14/14K
16
BLOCK 32
Producing fields Kuito, BBLT and Tômbua-Lândana already reached plateau production
Kaombo project being developed with 2 FPSO (2x125 kbopd)
Lianzi started production in 4Q15
First oil expected by 2H17
Development studies for other areas being matured and exploration upside identified
Potential upside from CNE hub INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
SANCTIONED UNITS SUPPORT PRODUCTION GROWTH
17
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Lula / Iracema 4 Leased FPSOs 520 kbopd
Lula Alto Leased FPSO 150 kbopd
Lula South Replicant FPSO 150 kbopd
Lula North Replicant FPSO 150 kbopd
Berbigão / Sururu Replicant FPSO 150 kbopd
Lula West1 Leased FPSO
Lula Central Leased FPSO 150 kbopd
Lula Ext South Replicant FPSO 150 kbopd
Atapu South Replicant FPSO 150 kbopd
Brazil
Current
Angola
Atapu North / Sururu Pilot Replicant FPSO 150 kbopd
Kaombo North Leased FPSO 125 kbopd
Block 14 2 Units 355 kbopd
1To
be awarded
Kaombo South Leased FPSO 125 kbopd
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
YIELDING SIGNIFICANT PRODUCTION GROWTH
18
Working interest production (kboepd)
Developing existing portfolio CAGR 2014-20 ≈ 25%-30%
20
31
IOR/EOR Exploration
> 50
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
TECHNICAL COSTS DRIVEN BY HIGH MARGIN PROJECTS
19
Technical costs¹ ($/boe)
Large scale of projects drives lower unit costs High quality assets reduce capex requirements
27 ≈22
2014
Lifting costs
Lifting costs in 2019 expected to be below $6/bbl
2019E
DD&A + Leasing costs
1Technical
costs based on working interest production. Excludes royalties, overheads and oil taxes
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LIST OF CONTENTS
20
DELIVERING GROWTH IN UPSTREAM STEADY CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSTREAM AND GAS ACTIVITIES STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION KEY TAKEAWAYS
APPENDIX
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
STRONG CASH FLOW FROM MODERN DOWNSTREAM ASSETS
21
OIL MARKETING
REFINING Flexible refining system with 330 kbopd refining capacity and combined Nelson complexity of 8.6
1,437 service stations of which 133 in Africa
Leveraging refineries’ logistics flexibility
Stable cash flow generator supported by focus on cost optimisation
12014 figures.
Oil sales to direct clients of 9.3 mton1
Includes retail, wholesale and LPG businesses in Iberia and in some African countries
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
STEADY CONTRIBUTION FROM GAS & POWER ACTIVITIES
SUPPLY & TRADING
NG INFRASTRUCTURE
2nd natural gas player in Iberia, with total annual sales of 7.5 bcm1 and developing a strong trading activity
12014 figures,
Extensive distribution network in Iberia based on a RAB of €1.1 bn with rate of return of c.8%, and stakes in pipelines
and including LNG trading volumes
22
POWER
205 MW of total capacity installed and expected c.3 TWh of annual electricity generation
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LIST OF CONTENTS
23
DELIVERING GROWTH IN UPSTREAM STEADY CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSTREAM AND GAS ACTIVITIES STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION KEY TAKEAWAYS
APPENDIX
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
2014-19 GROUP’S EBITDA1 CAGR OF C.20%, DRIVEN BY UPSTREAM GROWTH Upstream Ebitda
R&M Ebitda2
G&P Ebitda
(€m)
(€m)
(€m)
R&M Ebitda expected to benefit from supportive refining margins in 2015
G&P activities supporting Ebitda of €350 m - €400 m/yr plus €60 m from stakes in pipelines
24
CAGR 2014-2019 > 35%
Production ramp-up driving growth over time
2015 group Ebitda guidance of c.€1.5 bn, with integration providing a cushion to current low oil prices
1Based
on a $55/bbl oil price in 2015 and reaching $80/bbl in the long term Ebitda calculated based on estimated benchmark refining margin, from $4.1/bbl in 2015 and gradually decreasing to $2.2/bbl by 2019. Low and high cases based on a sensitivity of +$1.0/bbl and -$1.0/bbl, respectively 3R&M
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
CAPEX FLEXIBILITY AND FOCUS ON HIGHER MARGIN PROJECTS Capex profile
25
Committed vs. uncommitted capex Committed Lula/Iracema Angola E&A 2015
Total capex
Lula/Iracema Other development projects 2014
2015E
Uncommitted Other projects E&A 2016-19 2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
Capex guidance for 2015-19 of €1.2 bn - €1.4 bn
Around 40% of E&P capex planned for 2015-19 still to be committed
Upstream accounts for up to 90% of capex, of which c.90% corresponds to development
2015 capex expected at c.€1.3 bn
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
RESILIENT CASH FLOW FROM INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL
26
Free Cash Flow¹ (€m)
Integrated model stabilising free cash flow in a lower oil price environment Group expected to turn free cash flow positive during 2018 and Brazil in 2017 Under a flat $60/bbl Brent price scenario, Group free cash flow would become positive during 2019
1Post
interest, taxes and dividends. Base case based on a $57/bbl oil price in 2015 and reaching $80/bbl in the long term. Low case based on a $60/bbl oil price from 2016 onwards
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
CURRENT LIQUIDITY SUFFICIENT FOR THE NEXT THREE YEARS
27
Sources and uses 2015-2017 Liquidity of €3.1 bn1: Cash and equivalents of €1.2 bn; loan to Sinopec of €0.8 bn; available credit lines of €1.1 bn Available liquidity Capex
Net debt to Ebitda2 to remain under 2x (peaking during 2016) Brazil fully funded with own equity sources
Post-tax cash flow from operations
Debt service
Unchanged dividend policy3
Dividends Sources
Uses
1As
of the end of September 2015
2 Considering
loan to Sinopec as cash and equivalents
3 €0.3456 dividend
per share, related to 2014 fiscal year, growing on average 20% per year until 2016
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
DIVERSIFIED SOURCES OF FUNDING Debt breakdown¹ €3.6 bn
28
Debt reimbursement profile¹ Part of proceeds from Brazil capital increase lent back to Sinopec. Being gradually reimbursed according to Capex needs in Brazil
€1.2 bn
Public Bonds
(€m)
€0.8 bn
Private Placements
€1.6 bn
Multilaterals
Bank loans Gross debt
Cash and cash equivalents
Loan to Sinopec
Net debt to Ebitda of c.1.1x3
Net debt
Gross debt of €3.6 bn1 with average maturity of 3.3 yr and average cost of funding2 of 3.82%
1As
of the end of September 2015 cost of bank guarantees and credit lines 3Ratio considers net debt including loan to Sinopec as cash equivalent, plus €168 m Sinopec Shareholder Loan to Petrogal Brasil as debt, and LTM Ebitda RCA €1,661 m 2Including
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
3Q15 EBITDA UP 9% YOY WITH A SOUND CAPITAL STRUCTURE Profit & Loss
Balance Sheet¹
(€m)
(€m)
3Q14 Turnover
2Q15
3Q15
9M15
YoY
12,082
(10%)
9%
1,255
37%
(26%) (32%)
304
(11%)
70%
635
n.m.
(22%) (27%)
295
(13%)
QoQ
YoY
4,693
4,253
3,906
379
446
411
E&P
131
120
89
R&M
144
224
245
G&P
99
92
72
243
303
263
(13%)
8%
816
58%
11
17
17
0%
55%
60
36%
Financial results
(36)
(10)
(11)
(14%)
69%
(94)
0%
Taxes
(76)
(108)
(69)
36%
9%
(247)
37%
Non-controlling interests
(21)
(15)
(20)
(37%)
5%
(46)
(10%)
Net Income
121
189
180
(4%)
49%
490
n.m.
(8)
100
27
(73%)
n.m
117
74%
Ebitda
Ebit Associates
Net Income (IFRS)
1IFRS
(8%) (17%) (8%)
9%
Figures
2Does
not include loan to Sinopec as cash
29
Sep.2015 Jun.2015 Dec.2014
Sep-Jun Sep-Dec
Fixed and LT assets
7,638
7,778
7,599
(140)
39
Work in progress
2,016
2,093
1,768
(77)
248
Working capital
577
852
968
(275)
(392)
Loan to Sinopec
781
835
890
(55)
(109)
Other assets (liabilities)
(536)
(591)
(512)
55
(24)
Capital employed
8,459
8,874
8,945
(415)
(486)
Net debt2
2,387
2,330
2,520
57
(133)
Equity
6,072
6,545
6,425
(473)
(352)
Net Debt + Equity
8,459
8,874
8,945
(415)
(486)
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LIST OF CONTENTS
30
DELIVERING GROWTH IN UPSTREAM STEADY CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSTREAM AND GAS ACTIVITIES STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION KEY TAKEAWAYS
APPENDIX
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
GALP ENERGIA KEY TAKEAWAYS
31
Unique profile in the industry, delivering outstanding growth
2.4
25%
Production CAGR
bn boe resources in place
2P reserves + 2C resources in world class projects
2014-2020 expected production growth from operating and sanctioned upstream projects
>20%
Group free cash flow estimated to turn positive during 2018 and growing rapidly thereafter
Ebitda CAGR
2014-2019 expected Ebitda growth considering oil price gradually increasing to 80$/bbl in the long term
2018
free cash flow positive
̴1x 15%
ROACE by 2020
from c.5% in 2014, with capital employed in E&P growing to 70%
NetDebt/Ebitda
Committed to solid capital structure, with ND/Ebitda ratio always under 2x
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
LIST OF CONTENTS
32
DELIVERING GROWTH IN UPSTREAM STEADY CONTRIBUTION FROM DOWNSTREAM AND GAS ACTIVITIES STRONG FINANCIAL POSITION KEY TAKEAWAYS
APPENDIX
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
KEY OPERATING INDICATORS
33 2014
Exploration & Production Average working interest production1 (kboepd) Oil production (kbopd)
YoY
30.5 28.8
24%
27.1
26%
3Q14
2Q15
3Q15
YoY
31.8 29.7
43.8 40.5
45.7 42.2
+44% +42%
28.2
40.9
43.9
6.9
7.4
6.1
+56% (11%) +77% (53%) (19%)
Angola
7.2
30% (13%)
Brazil
19.8
58%
21.3
33.5
37.8
88.7 13.4
(12%) (2%)
93.2 11.8
53.0 7.6
43.8 9.5
92,864 2.8 2.4 16.8
(9%) +30% (28%) (2%)
25,368 4.7 2.3 4.5
29,800 7.3 2.6 4.7
29,814 6.7 2.9 4.8
9.3
(2%)
2.4
2.3
2.4
+18% +43% +23% +9% (1%)
7,472
5%
1,682
1,869
1,909
+14%
Sales to direct clients (mm3)
3,759
(7%)
966
919
933
(3%)
Trading (mm3)
3,713
22%
716
951
976
3,792
8%
972
1,120
1,219
+36% +25%
Average net entitlement production1 (kboepd)
Average realised sale price (USD/boe) Operating cost (USD/boe) Refining & Marketing Raw Materials processed (kboe) Galp Energia refining margin (USD/boe) Refining cash cost (USD/boe) Total refined product sales (mton) Sales to direct clients (mton)
Gas & Power NG supply total sales volumes (mm3)
Sales of electricity (GWh) 1 Includes
production of natural gas which was exported (excludes gas which is consumed or injected)
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
OUTLOOK
34
Galp Energia assumptions 2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
Brent price ($/bbl)
57
65
70
75
80
Refining margin benchmark1 ($/bbl)
4.1
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.2
EUR:USD
1.13
1.20
1.20
1.20
1.20
Key operational targets Medium-long term
Working Interest production growth Refining utilisation rate (%)
CAGR 2014-20 ≈ 25% to 30% 80 - 85
Oil sales to direct clients (mton)
CAGR 2014-19 ≈ 3%
NG/LNG sales (bcm)
5-7 1Benchmark
refining margin = 42.5% cracking margin + 45.0% hydrocracking margin + 5.5% aromatics margin + 7.0% base oils margin
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
2015-19 EBITDA SENSITIVITIES
35
Change
Approximate impact in 2015
Approximate annual medium/long term impact
Brent price
$10/bbl
€100 m
€350 m
Refining margin benchmark1
$1/bbl
€90 m
€80 m
0.10
(€70 m)
(€200 m)
EUR:USD
1Benchmark
refining margin = 42.5% cracking margin + 45.0% hydrocracking margin + 5.5% aromatics margin + 7.0% base oils margin
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
KEY INDICATORS ON GALP ENERGIA DEBT
36
YE2013
YE2014
9M15
Gross debt
€3.7 bn
€3.7 bn
€3.6 bn
Cash and equivalents
€1.5 bn
€1.1 bn
€1.2 bn
Net debt
€2.2 bn
€2.5 bn
€2.4 bn
Net debt considering loan to Sinopec as cash
€1.3 bn
€1.6 bn
€1.6 bn
1.1x
1.2x
1.1x2
Available credit lines
€1.2 bn
€1.2 bn
€1.1 bn
Average life of debt
3.6 yr
3.7 yr
3.3 yr
Average cost of funding
4.64%
4.21%
3.82%
% Debt @ floating rate
67%
57%
58%
Net debt to Ebitda ratio1
1Considering
loan to Sinopec as cash considers net debt including loan to Sinopec as cash equivalent, plus €168 m Sinopec Shareholder Loan to Petrogal Brasil as debt, and LTM Ebitda RCA €1,661 m 2Ratio
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
HIGHLY COMPETITIVE PROJECTS COMPARED TO OTHER UPSTREAM PLAYS
37
Break even oil prices by different oil plays ($/bbl) 120
Deep water 100
Oil sands
Extra heavy oil
North america shale
80
80 60
48
20
20
Onshore Middle East
53
Offshore shallow water
57
54
Onshore Russia
36
40
54
61
Onshore rest of the world
Average Galp Energia sanctioned projects break even
0 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Total 2020 liquid production (mmboepd) Source: Rystad Energy 2014. Note: Break even NPV10. Ranges represent 75% break even price confidence interval for each category.
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
GALP ENERGIA RESERVES AND RESOURCES PORTFOLIO
38
Reserves and resources (mmboe)1 Reserves 1P 2P 3P
2013 178 579 707
2014 232 638 833
% Chg. 31% 10% 18%
2013 319 1,853 3,923
2014 332 1,672 3,496
% Chg. 4% (10%) (11%)
2013 2,495 342
2014 1,605 217
% Chg. (36%) (36%)
Contingent resources 1C 2C 3C Exploration resources Unrisked Risked
1Exploration
resources and contingent resources on a working interest basis. Reserves figures on a net entitlement basis. All figures are based on DeGolyer and MacNaughton report as of 31.12.2014
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
2015 SCHEDULED EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL ACTIVITIES
39
Spud
Duration
Well
date
(# days)
status
A
1Q15
-
Concluded
14%
A
1Q15
-
Concluded
Carcará NW2
14%
A
3Q15
-
Concluded
Pitu North
20%
A
3Q15
-
Concluded
Amazonas
Jan-1
40%
E
1Q15
-
Concluded
Amazonas
Sil-1
40%
E
2Q15
-
Concluded
Target
Interest
E/A1
BM-S-11
Iara RDA 4
10%
BM-S-8
Carcará North
BM-S-8 Potiguar
Area Brazil
1E
– Exploration well; A – Appraisal well drilling phase.
2Second
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
PORTFOLIO PIPELINE Exploration
Namibia
40
Appraisal
Guanxuma Tango
Pre-development
Júpiter
Iara #1 to #3
Development
Block 32 Kaombo
Iara
Amazonas Block 32 CNE
New ventures
Peniche Araraúna
Pitu
Lula/ Iracema #4
Lula/ Iracema #2
Block 14/14K
Coral FLNG
Carcará Alentejo
Production
Mamba LNG
Lula/ Iracema #5 to #10
Lula/ Iracema #3
Lula/ Iracema #1
Barreirinhas
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
KEY EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL CAMPAIGN
41
One of the best rock quality identified in the pre-salt Santos basin
Pitu DST on oil accumulation confirmed good permeability and porosity
Intensive appraisal campaign performed in 2015
Pitu North well confirmed the existence of oil in that area
BLOCK BM-S-8 (BRAZIL)
POTIGUAR BASIN (BRAZIL)
Apollonia well confirmed the extension of Júpiter discovery and DST performed in Bracuhy
Seven offshore blocks in Alentejo and Peniche basins First well in the Alentejo basin, expected to be drilled in 1H16
Reviewing current appraisal program
BLOCK BM-S-24 (BRAZIL)
PORTUGAL
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
BRAZILIAN PORTFOLIO STILL HOLDS EXPLORATION POTENTIAL
BARREIRINHAS BASIN Acquisition of a 10% stake in four blocks in 2013
Three blocks in deep waters and one in shallow waters
42
PERNAMBUCO BASIN Frontier area with multiple objectives identified to be matured Second phase of exploration includes 3D seismic acquisition and geological studies
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
UNDEREXPLORED AREAS IN THE E&P PORTFOLIO STILL TO BE EVALUATED
URUGUAY Several leads identified with significant upside potential 3D seismic acquisition already acquired
NAMIBIA Potential for oil was proved Reprocessing 3D seismic and analysing data gathered
43
SÃO TOMÉ High potential area, close to proven oil provinces Acquisition of an operator position in Block 6 with a 45% stake
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
A FOCUSED AND EXPERIENCED MANAGEMENT TEAM
Chief Executive Officer Carlos Gomes da Silva
44
Over 25 years of experience in different industries, including oil & gas, energy and beverages. Member of the Board of Directors of Galp Energia since 2007.
Chief Financial Officer
COO Exploration & Production
COO Supply, Refining & Planning
COO Iberian Oil Marketing & International Oil
COO Gas & Power
Chief Corporate Officer / New Energies
Filipe Silva
Thore E.Kristiansen
Carlos Silva
Tiago Câmara Pestana
Pedro Ricardo
Carlos Costa Pina
Former CEO of Deutsche Bank in Portugal
Held positions as Senior Vice President of Statoil for South America and was also Chairman of Statoil Brasil
Professional career in the area of procurement and engineering at Galp Energia.
Former CEO of Dia Portugal, which operates 640 stores in mainland Portugal
Over 20 years of experience in the Gas sector. Previously responsible for supply and trading of natural gas
Former Secretary of State for Treasury and Finance and member of the BoD of the Portuguese Securities Market Commission
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
ACRONYMS
45
# ≈ % & € $ (or USD) x 1C; 2C; 3C 4D 1P 2P 3P A
Number Approximately Percentage And Euros Dollars Times Contingent resources Four Dimensional Proved reserves Proved and probable reserves Proved, probable and possible reserves Appraisal
DJSI DoC DST E E&A E&P Ebitda EIA EOR EPCIC FEED FCF FID
Dow Jones Sustainability Indices Declaration of Commerciality Drill Stem Test Exploration Exploration and Appraisal Exploration and Production Earnings before interest and taxes, depreciation and amortisation U.S. Energy Information Administration Enhanced Oil Recovery Engineering Procurement Construction Installation Commissioning Front-End Engineering Design Free Cash Flow Final Investment Decision
m mmbpd mmboepd mmbbl mmboe MSc mton mtpa NE NG NOCs NPV NLNG
ANP
Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels
FLNG
Floating Liquefied Natural Gas
OPEC
bcm bbl BBLT BoD bn c. Capex CAGR CEO Cid. CIF CFO CNE CO2 CDP COO D&G DD&A
Billion cubic metres Barrel Benguela, Belize, Lobito and Tomboco Board of Directors Billion cubic metres Circa Capital expenditure Compound Annual Growth Rate Chief Executive Officer Cidade Cost, Insurance and Freights Chief Financial Officer Central North East Carbon dioxide Carbon Disclosure Project Chief Operating Officer Downstream and Gas Depreciation, Depletion and Amortisation
FPSO FOB FTE GDP GeoER GIIP GIIGNL HSE ICE IEA IHS CERA IMF IOR ISPG kboepd kbopd LatAm LNG
Floating Production Storage Offloading Free On Board Full-time Equivalent Gross Domestic Product Reservoir geoengineering Gas Initially in Place International group of liquefied natural gas importers Health, Safety and Environment Intercontinental Exchange International Energy Agency Information Handling Services Cambridge Energy Research Associates International Monetary Fund Improved Oil Recovery Instituto do Petróleo e Gás Thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day Thousand barrels of oil per day Latin America Liquefied Natural Gas
Opex p.p. PoD PPSA Q&A R&T R&M RCA RDA ROACE RRR ToR US vs. WAG YoY YE Yr
Million Million barrels per day Million barrels of oil equivalent per day Million barrels Million barrels of oil equivalent Master of Science Million tonnes Million tonnes per annum Northeast Natural Gas National Oil Companies Net Present Value Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Operational expenditure Percentage points Plan of development Pré-Sal Petróleo S.A. Questions and Answers Research and Technology Refining and Marketing Replacement Cost Adjusted Reservoir Data Acquisition Return on Average Capital Employed Reserve Replacement Ratio Transfer of Rights United States of America Versus Water alternating gas Year over Year Year End Year
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
NOTES
46
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016
47
Investor Presentation
INVESTOR PRESENTATION – JANUARY 2016