InView - MARC Research

InView Q3 2017

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Advertising & Marketing 

Digital advertising revenues totaled $19.6 billion in the first quarter of 2017, 23% higher than the same period a year earlier. The quarter was the second largest ever recorded for digital advertising spend, topped only by the fourth quarter of 2016 which came in at $21.6 billion. It was the seventh consecutive first quarter to have double-digit, year-over-year growth. (Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau, June 14, 2017)

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Procter and Gamble and Unilever reduced their digital advertising budgets for the first five months of the year by 41% and 59% respectively. P&G reduced the number of sites it runs ads on by 33% to 978 while Unilever decreased its sites by 11% to 540. Both CPG companies have demanded more transparency in the media supply chain. (Source: MarketingDive, June 27, 2017)

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Over the next five years, 61% of marketing leaders worldwide expect artificial intelligence will have a substantial effect on marketers’ ability to deliver the right message using the right channel at the right time, on dynamic landing pages and websites, and on the hyper-personalization of content. Other aspects of marketing where 60% of marketers surveyed agreed that artificial intelligence will effect are hyperpersonalization of product recommendations, predictive journals, and programmatic advertising and media buying. (Source: eMarketer, July 5, 2017)

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According to a new study, Americans have 3.8 billion loyalty memberships, a 15% increase. The growth rate has slowed from 23% in 2015 signaling the loyalty market is maturing. The majority of memberships are inactive but the number has declined from 58% in 2015 to 54% in 2017. (Marketing Charts, July 7, 2017)

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The six-second commercial, a standard length for digital video pre-roll, is coming to broadcast television. Fox will launch six-second ads during the prime time “Teen Choice 2017” broadcast. Duracell and Mars will be among the first advertisers to use the video ad units on TV. Historically, the minimum industry standard has been 15 seconds. (Source: MediaDailyNews, August 1, 2017)

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2017

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An annual projection of online and offline advertising spend forecasts online advertising will have a strong 9.9% annual growth rate from 2016 through 2021 resulting in $116 billion. At that point, the online advertising market would be 50% larger than the television advertising market which is predicted to total $75 billion in 2021, up from $71 billion in 2017 – a CAGR of 1.3% between 2016 and 2021. The magazine segment is projected to remain flat between 2016 and 2017 with growth in digital magazines offsetting declines in print spend. The radio advertising market will increase marginally from $18.2 billion in 2017 to $19.1 billion in 2021 and record a CAGR of 1.2%. Newspaper advertising is the only segment projected to decline in revenues from $16.8 billion today to $12.2 billion in 2021. The digital newspaper market is not growing quickly enough to offset print advertising losses. Out-of-home advertising is forecast to have a CAGR of 3.7% while cinema advertising is predicted to grow 1.2% annually through 2021. (Source: Marketing Charts, July 10, 2017)

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Large and mid-size brands moving their media business to smaller, independent networks and away from the Big Six holding companies is a notable trend in 2017. Of 42 pitches, 16 brands have moved to independents. These 16 accounts include Sprint, Honda, and Darden Restaurants and account for more than $2 billion in media spending. All had previously been with a Big Six agency for media. Last year’s report from the ANA on the lack of transparency in advertising may be a reason for the moves. Another trend is that most clients who launch media reviews increasingly switch agencies. Of the 42 reviews considered, only two retained the incumbent agency. (Source: Adweek, August 3, 2017)

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An emerging technology in marketing is artificial intelligence-powered voice such as Amazon’s Alexa and Google’s Assistant. Brands will be able to create a personalized user experience based on customers. Some of the possibilities include voice search, with brands bidding to be in the top search returns based on context such as location. By 2020, 50% of all searches may be via voice. Another possibility is allowing people to talk to video ads. In tests, consumers have averaged conversations of one to two minutes with the cognitive ads. The number of voice-assisted devices in use in the U.S. is expected to grow from 45 million today to 67 million in 2019. Some concerns about voice-enabled marketing include who owns the data and the possibility of eaves dropping on consumers. (Source: Adweek, August 6, 2017)


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2017

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Demand for addressable TV advertising may accelerate during the next couple of years rising from $1.26 billion in 2017 to $3.04 billion in 2019. Driving the trend is an expansion of televisions’ capabilities beyond what was possible with an analog signal and receiver which translates into a higher number of households who can be reached with addressable advertising. Addressable advertising is more effective as it reduces or eliminates ads shown to people who are unlikely to ever purchase a product or service. Most addressable advertising costs more than standard national age and gender targeted inventory. (Source: eMarketer, August 14, 2017)

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Television network owners such as Turner and Viacom have been cutting down the number of commercials they air to see if that causes viewers to watch their channels, thus increasing ad review in the long run. Cutting ad load has become popular as has new ad formats, episode sponsorships, and brand integration a way to counter eroding viewership. To date, the results of these efforts have been inconclusive and no explicit correlation between ratings and ad load have been established. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 14, 2017)

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A survey of marketing and sales executives found 61% of respondents believe cognitive technology will be a disruptive force in their industries and 91% agree it will be important to the future of their organization. At the same time, only 24% say their company has a strategy to integrate cognitive technology into their business practices. The number one reason to adopt this technology is customer satisfaction. (Source: AI&IOT Daily, August 14, 2017)

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Marketers worldwide are expected to nearly triple their advertising spend in mobile applications from $72 billion in 2016 to $201 billion in 2021. Mobile accounts for 51% of digital ad spending with smartphone users spending more than four hours a day on their phone in some markets. The global advertiser mobile spend will grow from $13 per user to $52 per user over the five-year period. (Source: MarketingDive, August 14, 2017)


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2017

Population & Culture 

The number of women giving birth in the U.S. has hit a historic low. Last year, the number of babies born in the U.S. was 3,941,109 which is 1% fewer than in 2015. The general fertility rate for women age 15 to 44 was 62 births per 1,000 women in 2016, down from 62.5 births per 1,000 the year before. The decline is attributed to lower birthrates for teens and 20-somethings. Concerns are being raised the U.S. may not achieve “replacement level” which keeps a population stable so it doesn’t grow or shrink too much. For the U.S., the total fertility rate needs to be 2,100 births per 1,000 women. Last year the total fertility rate was 1,818 births per 1,000 women, the lowest level since 1984. The total fertility rate has been below the replacement level since 1971. Some experts believe the younger generation is simply postponing parenthood and that the low rate is a blip. (Source: The Washington Post, June 30, 2017; Los Angeles Times, June 30, 2017)

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The suicide rate among girls age 15 to 19 years doubled between 2007 and 2015, when it reached a 40year high. During the same time period, there was a 31% increase in suicide rates for boys of the same age. The rate in 2015 was 5.1 per 100,000 girls and 14.2 per 100,000 boys. Overall, suicide rates are increasing for all age groups in the U.S. It is unlikely any single factor is causing the increase. Lingering effects of the economic downturn causing family stress and teen anxiety is one possible cause. Cyberbullying and negative effects of social media may be another potential cause. (Source: CNN, August 3, 2017)

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The annual growth rate of the U.S. Hispanic population was flat between 2016 and 2017 at 2%. The highest annual growth rate among racial or ethnic groups in 2016-17 was 3% for Asians. African Americans recorded a 0.9% growth while the population of whites fell 0.1%. Overall the U.S. population has consistently increased 0.7% since 2011. (Source: Pew Research Center, August 3, 2017)

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Traditionally geared to students, gap years are increasingly being used by mid-career workers who want to transition to a new line of work and older workers who want a way to ease into retirement. For most of these mature adults, taking a gap year requires quitting a job and having the financial means to afford a year of exploration. (Source: The New York Times, July 14, 2017)


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2017

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Goats are popular subjects of online videos, Instagram accounts, and internet memes. In the past few years, they are becoming popular as pets. The number of registered Nigerian dwarf goats has increased 7.5% in the past three years. Goats seems to be good pets and very similar in nature to dogs. The most difficult part of owning a goat is finding a neighborhood zoned for farm animals. (Source: The New York Times, July 27, 2017)

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In 2007, the U.S. Border Patrol apprehended 800,634 illegal immigrants from Mexico and 58,004 from other countries at the southern border. By 2016, the number of apprehended illegal immigrants from Mexico dropped to 190,760 while the number from other countries grew to 218,110. (Source: Statista, August 7, 2017)

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Millennials account for 61% of today’s parents. Rather than repeat the “helicopter parent” model favored by their Baby Boomer parents, Millennials are taking a more collaborative, inclusive approach to raising their own children. Passenger plane parents believe every family member’s needs should be accommodated yet share valuable experiences. This had led to a trend of “separate togetherness” where families are together but experiencing different content or activities. (Source: Adweek, August 14, 2017)

Economy & Finance 

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that total household debt in the U.S. has reached a new all-time high of $12.7 trillion during the first quarter of 2017. The growing debt level suggests Americans whose credit rating was damaged during the recession can now qualify for loans. Debt can power consumer spending which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. economic activity. However, heavy borrowing also signals potential new risks. The ballooning debt of student loans, auto loans, and credit cards could lead to a new wave of defaults similar to the mortgage meltdown which led to the recession ten years ago. (Source: The New York Times, May 17, 2017)

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The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in May, its lowest level since 2001. However, job creation has slowed down to a rate about two-thirds the rate recorded in 2016. The unemployment level suggests the labor market is at or near full employment which may explain the slowdown in hiring as fewer people are available to hire. Employers are also reluctant to raise wages to attract potential workers as they want to protect their profit margins. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2017) ©2017 by M/A/R/C® Research Page 6

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2017

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The National Association of State Budget Officers reports most states want to increase general spending by 1% in fiscal 2018, the smallest increase since fiscal 2010, when states were dealing with the recession. The small spending increase reflects weak revenue collection and uncertainty about the future of federal funds for Medicaid and other programs. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2017)

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Almost 20% of Americans age 65 years and older are working full- or parttime, the highest rate since 1962. Of those still in the workforce, 34% say it is a financial decision with fewer pensions and not enough retirement savings. In 2000, 13% of this group was still working and the number is projected to increase to 32% by 2021. (Source: CNBC, July 16, 2017)

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Following a nearly 400% increase over the last 30 years, U.S. college tuition grew at 1.9%, after factoring in scholarships and grants. Between 1990 and last year, tuition grew an average of 6% a year, more than double the rate of inflation. During the same period, the number of two-year and four-year colleges increased 33% to 4,726 institutions. College enrollment is down more than 4% from its peak in 2010, partially because fewer displaced workers are going back to school to learn new skills. The pool of traditional college-age Americans is also smaller due to lower birthrates. The number of new high school graduates fell from 18% growth between 2000 and 2010 to 2% between 2011 and 2017. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, July 23, 2017)

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A quarterly survey of Americans’ personal financial satisfaction reported the highest levels of satisfaction in more than ten years for the second quarter. Gains in the stock market, more job opportunities, and a decrease in inflation were responsible for the high marks. (Source: ThinkAdvisor, July 31, 2017)

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Geographic mobility among Americans is at an all-time low. About 10% moved in the past year, down from the 1950’s-1980’s when more than 20% of the nation moved each year. It is a major cultural shift and one that is bad for the economy as too many people live places where jobs are not plentiful. Reasons for not moving to where the jobs are include housing costs, ties to families and friends, and cultural differences between different parts of the country. (Source: The Washington Post, August 3, 2017)

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Self-reported consumer spending has returned to levels recorded before the financial crisis of 2008. Respondents said they spent an average of $109 a day in July, excluding normal household bills and major purchases, which is close to the $114 daily spend reported in May 2008. (Source: eMarketer Retail, August 6, 2017)


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2017

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According to the Internal Revenue Service, among people who estimate and pay their taxes quarterly, the number penalized for underpaying rose 40% between 2010 and 2015. This finding suggests that people who pay quarterly taxes – including gig workers, retirees, business owners, and investors – may not realize they need to pay taxes quarterly or that by increasing their withholding they can avoid penalties. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2017)

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Employees in the manufacturing sector are giving up their jobs at the fastest rate in a decade. The share of factory workers that have voluntarily left their job is currently 1.6%, up from 1.1% in June 2015. Given the low unemployment rate, many workers are looking for work in other industries that are not as physically demanding or as threatened by automation and off-shoring. Over the last 20 years, the U.S. has lost about five million manufacturing jobs. (Source: The Washington Post, August 15, 2017)

Entertainment, Media & Sports 

In the last ten years, the sales of electric guitars have decreased from 1.5 million sold annually to 1 million. Both guitar makers and retailers are struggling. An aging population, a proliferation of programmable electronic instruments, and the lack of modern guitar heroes are cited as reasons for the decline. (Source: The Washington Post, June 22, 2017)

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Through the first half of the 2017 Major League Baseball season, hitters are on track to break the league’s collective home run record. As of July 8, MLB was on pace to record 6,117 home runs this year which would break the previous record of 5,693 set in 2000. Players had 1,101 home runs in June – the highest total for a month in baseball history. A better understanding of how to hit a baseball (e.g. launch angle, exit velocity, etc.) has led to adjustments. The percentage of fly balls which have become homers increased from 9.5% in 2014 to 13.7% in 2017. At the same time, the number of strikeouts have risen annually for the last decade with the average standing at 16.489 per game up from 16.055 last year. (Source: The New York Times, July 10, 2017)

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For the first time in 2016, streaming – including video – accounted for more than half of all music revenues. In the first six months of 2017, 189.8 million music streams were counted, up from 139.1 million during the first half of 2016. During the same period, sales of physical albums, digital albums, and track equivalent albums declined. Streaming music accounted for 60% of music consumption in 2017. (Source: Statista, July 6, 2017) ©2017 by M/A/R/C® Research Page 8

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2017

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Approximately 8.6% of adults downloaded a podcast in the past month, up from 7% a year ago. Podcasts reached 21 million people in the last month – most of them young, well-educated, mobile first, engaged, and influential. (Source: MarketingDive, July 27, 2017)

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In 2011, Americans age 18 to 24 years watched about 26 and a half hours of traditional television each week. By 2017, that number had fallen to 14 and a half hours. This group is moving its watching to mobile devices and streaming services. (Source: Business Insider, July 31, 2017)

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Tickets to Broadway shows are selling at a record-setting place with grosses reaching $327 million between late May, when the season begins, and the end of July. Sales are 20.5% higher than the same period last season. Attendance is up 6.9% to 2.8 million. The boom is driven by highprofile shows such as the revival of “Hello Dolly” starring Bette Midler, “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” and “Hamilton.” (Source: The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2017)

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Traditional pay TV distributors lost 941,000 subscribers in the second quarter of 2017, the worst quarterly loss ever. The rate of subscriber loss was 2.7%, up from 2.5% in the first quarter, and again the largest percent change recorded. Third quarter losses are predicted to accelerate even faster with the rate of decline stabilizing around 3% per year. (Source: TVNewsCheck, August 3, 2017)

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CBS and Walt Disney both announced plans for over-the-top streaming services. CBS is prepping a livestreaming sports service. CBS has deals with the NFL, the PGA, and NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball. Disney is also planning a sports streaming service which will carry the ESPN brand. A second Disney streaming service will offer movies and television shows, including original programming, directly to consumers. In conjunction with this service, Disney will also end its distribution agreement with Netflix. (Source: Advertising Age, August 7, 2017; The Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2017)

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Sales of the card game Uno rose 20% in the first half of 2017 making it the top seller in the games category, excluding trading cards. Increased distribution through Dollar General and 7-Eleven, branded versions through entertainment partnerships, and a crowd-sourced marketing initiative called “Getting Wild for Uno” were all factors in helping the game excel. The game category overall has seen explosive growth in recent years as people seek to unplug from the digital world. (Source: Advertising Age, August 4, 2017)


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2017

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A lack of summer blockbusters meant a disappointing season for movie theater chains. Admissions to the movies are down about 5% year-to-date in the U.S. and Canada compared to last year. Revenues have decreased 2.6% this year. Only one movie, “Wonder Woman,” has grossed more than $400 million in the U.S. and Canada this summer. The industry is concerned about the increase in video entertainment options available to consumers as well as how long movie theaters will maintain their exclusivity on first-run movies. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2017)

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Many smaller sports leagues are finding a national audience for their games on Twitter. Twitter has signed deals with Arena Football League, Major League Lacrosse, National Lacrosse League and National Women’s Hockey League. Twitter also has rights to stream one game a week with Major League Baseball and Women’s National Basketball Association as well as 70+ hours of PGA coverage over 31 tournaments. Amazon is also pursuing streaming rights for sports with international appeal such as rugby, golf, and tennis but doesn’t anticipate offering sports until 2019. (Source: Bloomberg, August 4, 2017; Digiday, August 7, 2017)

Fashion 

Dress codes, at least in Europe, are being modified to allow men to wear tailored shorts to work. In several cases, the dress code was changed after men wore skirts to point out that women’s dress codes have more comfortable options for warmer weather. Fashion designers are also showing men’s suits featuring shorts and skirts rather than trousers, a move which challenges stereotypes and highlights prejudices in the way men and women dress. (Source: The New York Times, June 26, 2017)

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The overall beauty and personal care industry grew 5% in 2016 while the premium segment performed slightly better with 6% growth. Premium beauty and personal care brands are predicted to have a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% between 2016 and 2021 compared to mass brands which will have a CAGR of 2.4%. Key drivers behind premium beauty include consumers’ desires for healthy living and green products and a shift from more possessions to more experiences which means spending more on the items purchased especially if they fulfill personalized needs. Dermocosmetics is a growing and innovative segment as are products formulated with probiotics. (Source: Global Cosmetic Industry, July/August 2017)


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2017

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While offerings in the women’s plus-size apparel category has grown 375% over the past five years, the number of plus-size men’s clothing options has declined 54%. Most plus-size menswear is designed for big and tall men even though there is no data which correlates the two. Designers may be taking note though of the increase in bloggers and influencers advocating for more plus-size menswear options. (Source: Glossy, July 5, 2017)

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Social media is driving more men to consider luxury menswear, specifically luxury casualwear. Many men who would not pick up a men’s fashion magazine are more willing to follow influencers that fit their style on Instagram and other photo-sharing platforms. Menswear is expected to grow faster than womenswear over the next three years and be worth $33 billion by 2020. (Source: WARC, July 10, 2017)

Health & Wellness 

The number of Americans diagnosed with opioid-use disorder increased 500% over the past seven years according to a review by Blue Cross Blue Shield. The amount of prescription opioids sold in the U.S. nearly quadrupled since 1999 even though the number of Americans suffering from pain has remained steady. At the same time, the number of deaths from prescription opioids has also risen more than 400% with 91 Americans dying daily from an opioid overdose. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 29, 2017)

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Some new exercise crazes are Gyrotonics, bungee workouts, and slackline fitness. Gyrotonics has been around since 1984 but is growing rapidly in the U.S. It involves movements in a fluid, circular motion which increases balance and reflexes. Bungee workouts use resistance bands that are anchored to the ceiling which makes exercises like lunges easier but also makes it more fun. Finally, slackline fitness or slacklining involves performing exercises on a narrow, flat line of webbing suspended between two anchors low to the ground and is similar to tightrope walking except the line is slack which makes it more difficult to maintain balance. It improves balance, strengthens core muscles, and builds up the lower body. (Source: The Washington Post, July 5, 2017; POPSUGAR Fitness, July 5, 2017; Self, July 5, 2017)


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2017

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In 2016, overall tobacco use among high school students declined to a new low of 20%. Only 8% of students smoked cigarettes while 11.3% used e-cigarettes, a drop from 16% the prior year. An estimated 3.9 million high school and middle school students use tobacco products including cigarettes, cigars, hookahs, pipes, smokeless tobacco, bidis, and e-cigarettes. (Source: The Washington Post, June 15, 2017)

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Death rates from colon cancer are increasing for people age 20 to 54 – from 3.9 per 100,000 in 2004 to 4.3 per 100,000 in 2014. The mortality rate from colorectal cancer for white people increased from 3.6 per 100,000 to 4.1 per 100,000. For blacks and other races, the mortality rate declined or remained steady. (Source: The Washington Post, August 8, 2017)

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Deaths from drug overdoses rose sharply during the first three quarters of 2016 to 19.9 per 100,000 as compared to the same period in 2015 when the rate was 16.7 per 100,000. Approximately 60% of drug overdose deaths can be attributed to opioids. The total number of drug overdoses for 2016 is predicted to exceed 60,000, up from 52,404 in 2015. (Source: The Washington Post, August 8, 2017)

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In 2015, the rate at which women died of pregnancy-related complications was 64% higher in rural areas of the U.S. than in large cities. This is a reversal from 2000 when the rate in the cities was higher. The increase is attributed to a 15% decline in rural hospitals that offer labor and delivery services compared to a 5% decline in urban and suburban hospitals. Many rural hospitals do not have high-risk pregnancy specialists that can treat sudden complications. Many pregnancy-related deaths could be avoided if women were closer to hospitals which offered high levels of care. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2017)

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More companies are trying to destigmatize mental illness and encourage employees to access mental health professionals and use mental health days when they are struggling with depression, anxiety, and other disorders. In the past, mental illness was not talked about but many companies are beginning to offer programs, create cultures, and draft policies which openly address it. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2017)


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2017

Homes & Housing 

Over the past ten years, the number of first-time U.S. home buyers averaged 1.5 million annually, a decrease from the historical average of 1.8 million a year. First-time buyers are essential to the housing market as they drive new demand for housing. Tight lending standards and shortages of affordable homes in many markets are effecting the market. Student loans and rising rents have also made it difficult to save a down payment. However, the market may be shifting with two million first-timers purchasing a home last year. They represented 37% of the market, greater than the historical average of 35%. A wave of first-time buyers is expected over the next decade as a large cohort in their mid-20s begin to buy homes. In response, home builders are constructing smaller, less expensive homes. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 7, 2017)

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Between 2006 and 2016, the U.S. added 7.6 million net households. During this decade, the number of households that own their home decreased from 76.1 million to 75 million while the number of households that rent their home grew by nearly 9 million. Currently, 36.6% of all households are renter householders, exceeding the 1986 high of 36.2% and approaching the 37% rate recorded in 1965. A survey of renters found 65% do so as a result of circumstances, most often financial ones. Only 32% of renters rent as a matter of choice. (Source: GlobeSt.com, July 21, 2017)

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A new study estimates 7% of U.S. households will be smart homes by the end of this year and 10% of homes worldwide will be connected by 2025. Digital voice assistants are predicted to be the key to smart homes as they could control the disparate mobile apps that control specific home features or appliances and interact with anyone in the household. (Source: ConnectedThinking, August 14, 2017)

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Google announced it will acquire 300 modular homes which it will place on land it controls in Mountain View CA. The homes will be used as temporary housing for employees. This is part of a larger trend happening in regions across the country of employers providing workforce housing in markets where affordable housing is hard to find. (Source: Strategy+Business, June 20, 2017)

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The Consumer Technology Association predicts the fastest growing emerging technology based on unit sales will be virtual reality devices which will increase 79%. Other fast growing categories include 4K UHD TVs (+59%), digital assistant devices (+53%), and smart home devices (+50%). By revenues, smart home devices will record the largest increase at 48% year-over-year, followed by 4K UHD TV (+45%), drones (+44%), and virtual reality devices (+43%). (Source: Marketing Charts, August 14, 2017)


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2017

Technology & Communications 

Emoji search is becoming popular with some brands. Yelp, General Electric, and Kayak use emoji search. Yelp introduced it to add an element of fun. Kayak noticed an increase in the use of emojis when smartphone users where texting about travel and wants to capitalize on their use. Search results from emojis and combinations of emojis are expected to become more refined. Kayak, for instance, asks users to help them match emojis to their corresponding city destinations. (Source: DigiDay, July 6, 2017)

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A survey of 2,500 of the largest companies across the globe found 19% have an executive designated to oversee their digital initiatives. This is up from 6% in 2015. Though the number of digital leaders has grown, the percentage that are a member of the C-Suite has remained constant at 40%. (Source: Strategy+Business, June 21, 2017)

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The consumer price index for wireless phone services dropped 12.5% in May year-over-year according to the Department of Labor. The month before, the index fell 13%, the largest decline ever recorded for the category. The lower prices are the result of increased competition and increasingly extreme offers many of which offer unlimited plans. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, June 23, 2017)

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A survey of over 1,100 American internet users age 13 to 34 found 57% of younger teens say they are watching more short-form video content than a year ago with 35% saying they are watching the same amount. Similar numbers of 13-to-17-year-olds report they are also watching more full-length shows and movies online. At the same time, about one-third of this younger group says they are spending less time with blogs, publishing sites, and apps than in the past. (Source: Publishing Insider, July 5, 2017)

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Nearly three-quarters (73%) of 6,000 CEOs surveyed predict cognitive computing or artificial intelligence will play a key role in the future of their business. More than 50% of respondents say their company will adopt these technologies in the next two years and they expect a 15% return on their investments in them. (Source: TechRepublic, July 6, 2017)

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A new global forecast predicts 5.5 billion people, or two-thirds of the world’s population, will be using mobile devices by 2022. An estimated 3.8 billion people will use smartphones. Asia and Latin America will continue to be major growth markets during the next five years. (Source: WARC, July 24, 2017)


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2017

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Tablet shipments declined 3.4% in the second quarter compared to the same period a year earlier. Largescreen smartphones are contributing to the decline of tablet users. However, business-owned tablets are expected to continue to grow. Apple posted its first gain in iPad sales in 14 quarters while Amazon’s Fire tablets saw the largest growth with its radically customized version. (Source: WARC, July 24, 2017; C|NET, August 3, 2017)

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New York City is rolling out an ambitious project to spread ultrafast Wi-Fi across the city using smart kiosks. Each kiosk will feature a large digital display on one side that will carry advertisements and public information. On the other side will be a user terminal which will allow one user at a time to access apps such as paying parking tickets or making a phone call. There is also a big red button that will make an emergency call to 911. Consumers will also be able to charge their phones at the kiosks. The free Wi-Fi will be available to anyone who authenticates with an email address. (Source: Networksasia, August 4, 2017)

Transportation 

The Department of Transportation reports through April, Americans had traveled 1.01 trillion miles on U.S. roads and highways, a 1.5% increase over the prior year. .U.S gasoline demand and vehicle miles traveled both set records in 2016. (Source: Reuters, June 20, 2017)

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The entire model of car ownership may be disrupted by ride sharing services and self-driving vehicles. In the not too distant future, people who previously drove their car may instead hail a driverless car on demand. Tests are currently underway to understand what makes a service such as this appealing enough to take the place of a car. Those who want to continue owning cars may share the vehicle with others by renting it out when not in use – akin to an Airbnb for cars. The advent of widespread self-driving cars will spawn a new market – the passenger economy which could generate as much as $800 billion by 2035 as companies develop features that turn cars into living rooms on wheels. (Source: Bloomberg, June 20, 2017)

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Ride-sharing company Lyft is now giving one million rides a day and is on track to hit 350 million rides annually. The number of rides has grown 100% month-over-month for 48 consecutive months. Nationally, Lyft has 20% to 30% market share but claims more of the market in other cities such as Atlanta, Chicago, and New York. Lyft operates in 350 U.S. cities compared to rival Uber’s 614 cities. Uber hit 5 billion rides by the end of June. (Source: Business Insider, July 5, 2017) ©2017 by M/A/R/C® Research Page 15

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2017

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Motorcycle sales in the U.S. peaked in 2006 at 716,268. Sales fell 41% in 2009 and another 14% in 2010 as discretionary spending declined and credit availability tightened. The aging population was also a factor in the decline with nearly half of motorcycle riders over age 50 in 2014. To try to capture a new generation of riders, motorcycle manufacturers have introduced entry-level bikes – lighter, stripped-down, smaller engine, low to the ground seats, and a price point under $7,000. (Source: Bloomberg, July 5, 2017)

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The National Automobile Dealers Association predicted U.S. sales of new vehicles will total 17.1 million units in 2017. In 2018, sales are expected to fall to 16.8 million units and then range between 16.5 million and 16.8 million units through 2020. A record 17.55 million units were sold in 2016. A glut of nearly new, low-mileage off-lease vehicles is expected to pose a challenge to new car sales. (Source: Reuters, July 6, 2017)

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Ridership on city buses nationwide declined 13% in the second quarter of 2017 as compared to the same period in 2007. After the recession, cities pared back bus service by slashing routes and frequency to save money which discouraged passengers from taking the bus. Lower fare revenue results in additional cuts in a neverending spiral. Bus commuter times have grown more than other modes of transportation over the past decade. The average bus rider spends 47 minutes getting to work. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2017)

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A new report from the Commerce Department says self-driving vehicles will likely affect one in nine American workers. This includes 3.8 million people who drive taxis, buses, trucks, ambulances, and other vehicles for a living. An additional 11.7 million drive as part of their position as a police officer, real estate agent, plumber, or home health aide. If successfully introduced, autonomous vehicles could reshape not just occupations but entire industries. (Source: The Wall Street Journal, August 14, 2017)

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A new report contends plug-in electric vehicles will be cost competitive with traditional gasoline-powered cars between 2025 and 2030, even without subsidies or fuel-savings calculations. At this point, mass adoption will happen. The shift to electric vehicles will affect the auto industry, the gasoline market, and the global climate. In 2016, plug-in vehicles accounted for less than 1% of new passenger vehicle sales worldwide. Several automakers including Tesla, Volkswagen, and Volvo plan to produce large numbers of electric vehicles by 2019. Other estimates project that at most, plug-in cars will represent 10% of global new car sales by 2040 and have little effect. The difference in opinion comes down to how low the cost of lithium-ion battery packs goes. (Source: The New York Times, July 8, 2017)


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Q3

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2017

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