IRP - Kentucky Public Service Commission

Dec 20, 2016 - Residential and Commercial Forecasted Solar Installed Costs (Nominal $/WAC) for Kentucky . ..... expects that there will be opportunities for utility-scale storage (i.e. batteries) and Combined. Heat and ...... Each EE bundle is offered into the model as a stand-alone resource with its own unique cost and ...
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KPSC Case No. 2016-00413 2016 Integrated Resource Plan Of Kentucky Power Company Volume A - Public Version Page 1 of 1497

INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING REPORT TO THE KENTUCKY PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

CASE NO. 2016-00413

VOLUME A – PUBLIC VERSION

December 20, 2016

INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING REPORT TO THE KENTUCKY PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

CASE NO. 2016-00413

VOLUME A – PUBLIC VERSION PAGES 2-199 of 1497

December 20, 2016

KPSC Case No. 2016-00413 2016 Integrated Resource Plan Of Kentucky Power Company Volume A - Public Version Page 2 of 1497

KPSC Case No. 2016-00413 2016 Integrated Resource Plan Of Kentucky Power Company Volume A - Public Version Page 3 of 1497

Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... VI LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................... VIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1

Overview.................................................................................................................................................. 1

1.2

Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Process .................................................................................................... 1

1.3

Introduction to Kentucky Power .............................................................................................................. 2

1.4

Power Coordination Agreement (PCA) ..................................................................................................... 3

1.5

The Impact of Coal Mining on KPCo Service Territory............................................................................... 4

1.6

Significant Changes from the 2013 IRP ..................................................................................................... 5

2.0 LOAD FORECAST AND FORECASTING METHODOLOGY .................................... 8 2.1

Summary of KPCo Load Forecast .............................................................................................................. 8

2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.2.5

Forecast Assumptions .............................................................................................................................. 8 Economic Assumptions ................................................................................................................................8 Price Assumptions .......................................................................................................................................9 Specific Large Customer Assumptions .........................................................................................................9 Weather Assumptions .................................................................................................................................9 Demand Side Management (DSM) Assumptions.........................................................................................9

2.3

Overview of Forecast Methodology ....................................................................................................... 10

2.4 Detailed Explanation of Load Forecast ................................................................................................... 12 2.4.1 General ......................................................................................................................................................12 2.4.2 Customer F