Nov 1, 2017 - locations. The SMEB will be included once it has been agreed upon by all partners and may not contain all
Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) November 2017
INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGY
In an effort to better understand market dynamics in Libya, the Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) was initiated by the Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG) in June 2017. The initiative is guided by the CMWG Markets Taskforce, led by REACH and supported by the CMWG members. Markets in key urban areas across Libya are assessed on a monthly basis. In each location, field teams record prices and availability of basic food and nonfood items (NFI) sold in local shops and markets. This factsheet presents an overview of price ranges and medians for key foods and NFIs in the assessed areas. The cleaned data sets are available on the REACH Resource Centre and distributed to CMWG partners, as well as to the broader humanitarian community. In future rounds, the factsheet will include a Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), which represents the minimum culturally adjusted group of items required to support a Libyan household for one month. The prices associated with the SMEB will illustrate variations in prices across assessed locations. The SMEB will be included once it has been agreed upon by all partners and may not contain all items assessed in the previous rounds.
Data collection for the JMMI occurs on a monthly basis, with associated factsheets and datasets published and distributed after every round. The sixth round of data collection for the JMMI was conducted between 1 and 10 November 2017, during which enumerators from 5 CMWG partners (ACTED, DRC, Mercy Corps, WFP & REACH) gathered price data for 32 basic items from 268 individual shops. For the November round, 1 new location was added to the coverage, Bani Waleed, increasing the number of assessed cities to 22. Field staff familiar with the local market conditions identified shops representative of the general price
ROUND 6 FIGURES 22 assessed cities 268 assessed shops 32 assessed items
EXCHANGE RATES 1.375 USD/LYD
8.700 USD/LYD
10.070 EUR/LYD
official1
parallel market2
parallel market2
+0.2%
+5.1%
+3.8%
ANALYSIS Prices of Food and NFIs Rose as the Parallel Market Exchange Rate Depreciated The US dollar exchange rate on the Libyan parallel market had been fairly stable from March to September 2017, with rates hovering around 8.0 to 8.2 USD/LYD. In October, however, the Libyan dinar started to further lose value. By early November, the currency depreciated by 5.1% against the US dollar compared to the previous month. Against the Euro, the dinar lost 3.8% while the official rates remained nearly unchanged (USD/LYD: +0.2%). The recent changes in the parallel market rates occurred amid ongoing uncertainty about the country's political and economic future, renewed fighting in different parts of the country and a shortage of Libyan dinars offered by parallel market traders, who are reportedly expecting further depreciation and therefore prefer to hold on to their currency stock.3 As discussed in the CMWG study Market Systems in Libya (available online), a rise in the parallel market exchange rate directly translates into price increases for commodities, as many importers do not have access to letters of credit at the official exchange rate and therefore need to resort to the parallel market to obtain foreign currency.
Libya Cash & Markets Working Group ASSESSED LOCATIONS level in their respective location. Assessed shops include supermarkets, bakeries, vegetable sellers and butchers, as well as central markets. At least four prices per assessed item were collected within each location. In line with the purpose of the JMMI, only the price of the cheapest available brand was recorded for each item. Enumerators were trained on methodology and tools by REACH. Data collection was conducted through the KoBo mobile application. Following data collection, REACH compiled and cleaned all partner data, normalising prices and cross-checking outliers. Commodity prices have indeed increased since October: Overall, food prices have risen by 6.4% while NFI prices increased by 9.3% on average across assessed locations (see tables on page 2: Food / NFI Price Index).4 Snapshot of Payment Modalities Accepted in Assessed Shops Confirms Heavy Dependence on Cash Since the November round, the JMMI registers payment modalities accepted in the assessed shops. While all the shops relied on cash payments, only a few accepted other modalities (see chart on page 2: Accepted Payment Modalities in Assessed Shops). Out of the assessed shops, 13.3% allowed customers to buy on credit. Only 7.8% of shops reported that they accepted bank transfers, while a mere 6.8% of shops accepted payments by cheque. Such payments (by cheque) were subject to additional fees of up to 50% of the purchasing price of commodities. Given that only a minority of assessed shops accepted non-cash payments, the data underlines the challenging task of agencies implementing cash-based interventions to find an adequate transfer modality – particularly outside the regional hubs of Tripoli and Benghazi – where cash-in-hand is considered too risky.
Zwara Tripoli Tarhuna Zliten
Nalut
Bani Waleed Azzintan Ghiryan Sirte
Benghazi
Albayda Derna
Tobruk
Ejdabia
Ghadamis Brak Sebha
Ubari Ghat
Murzuq Algatroun
Alkufra
ASSESSED ITEMS Item Food Items
Salt Sugar Wheat flour Rice Pasta Couscous Tomato paste Chickpeas Beans Milk Condensed milk Baby milk
Non-Food Items
Hand washing soap Laundry soap Shampoo Dishwashing liquid Toothpaste Toothbrush Sanitary pads Baby diapers
Vegetable oil Green tea Black tea Canned tuna Eggs Chicken meat Lamb meat Bread Tomatoes Onions Peppers Potatoes
FOOD PRICE INDEX Location
NFI PRICE INDEX
Food Price Index (in LYD)
Change since October (in LYD)5
Change since October (in %)5
116.5
+11.3
+10.7%
Algatroun
111.4
+2.8
Ubari
104.2
+5.2
Murzuq
Change since June (in LYD)5
Change since June (in %)5
Location
PAYMENT MODALITIES
NFI Price Index (in LYD)
Change since October (in LYD)5
Change since October (in %)5
Zwara
43.3
+10.9
+33.5%
+2.5%
Sebha
41.6
+6.4
+18.1%
+5.3%
Ubari
40.6
+0.1
+0.2%
–1.3
–3.7%
+17.6
+22.5%
Alkufra
37.5
+9.4
+33.3%
+3.4%
+16.7
+22.8%
Zliten
36.1
+0.5
+1.4%
Zwara
89.5
+0.2
+0.2%
Brak
33.7
+1.8
+5.5%
Sebha
88.5
+1.2
+1.4%
Ejdabia
33.4
+7.4
+28.6%
Ghadamis
88.4
+3.8
+4.5%
Benghazi
33.1
+6.8
+25.9%
Brak
86.8
+10.3
+13.4%
+1.7
+2.0%
Albayda
32.4
+6.6
+25.7%
Nalut
86.2
–3.8
–4.2%
+17.4
+25.2%
Tobruk
32.4
–6.9
–17.6%
Ghiryan
85.9
+10.1
+13.4%
+8.0
+10.2%
Bani Waleed
32.1
Albayda
83.4
+6.4
+8.3%
Sirte
31.9
+0.2
+0.5%
–0.6
–1.9%
Zliten
83.1
+6.5
+8.4%
Derna
31.4
+5.7
+22.3%
+5.6
+21.8%
Tripoli
82.7
+7.3
+9.7%
Ghiryan
30.8
–1.0
–3.0%
–5.8
–15.8%
Tarhuna
82.0
+7.8
+10.4%
Tarhuna
30.5
+6.9
+29.3%
Sirte
82.0
+2.1
+2.7%
Nalut
30.1
–0.5
–1.6%
–0.3
–1.0%
Bani Waleed
81.6
Ghadamis
30.0
–1.3
–4.0%
Tobruk
81.2
–0.3
–0.4%
Tripoli
29.7
+1.2
+4.2%
Benghazi
80.2
+7.1
+9.7%
Azzintan
26.5
+0.8
+3.0%
+4.4
+20.1%
78.1
+3.0
+4.0%
Murzuq
17.8
–0.5
–2.7%
90.0
+5.44
+6.4%4
AVERAGE
33.4
+2.94
+9.3%4
+2.06
+6.7%6
26+27+32+33+34+38 15+14+13+16+15+16 +11.96
+15.7%6
AVERAGE FOOD PRICE INDEX OVER TIME6 Jun 75.9
Jul
76.7
Aug 82.0
Sep 82.5
AVERAGE NFI PRICE INDEX OVER TIME6
Oct 84.0
Nov 87.9
Jun 30.3
Jul
28.5
Aug 27.7
Sep 31.2
Oct 30.4
Nov 32.3
The food price index was calculated by adding up the median prices of one unit of each food item (excluding baby milk and lamb meat), the NFI price index by adding up the median prices of one unit of each non-food item (excluding baby diapers). Where the median value is not available, the average price across all locations was assumed for the calculation of the indices.
2
Libya Cash & Markets Working Group
7.8%
6.3%
1.6%
0.4%
fer
+17.2%
+100+13+8+6+3+2+1+1+1 13.3%
ns
AVERAGE
+12.0
+12.9%
sh
Ejdabia
+10.1
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
ld Go
+4.2%
+3.0
r rte nt Ba me ay eP lin On y ne Mo ile rd Ca bit
+3.8
90.1
De
95.6
Azzintan
it /
Derna
ed
+47.6%
ue
–15.4%
+12.6
eq
–7.3
39.1
a Tr
39.8
Ghat
nk
Algatroun
+13.6%
it
+16.5%
+11.8
ed
+14.6
98.9
Cr
103.4
Ca
Ghat Alkufra
b Mo
+41.3%
100.0%
Cr
+12.2
(% of total assessed shops7)
Ch
Change since June (in %)5
Ba
Change since June (in LYD)5
ACCEPTED PAYMENT MODALITIES IN ASSESSED SHOPS
CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS Coordinating a price monitoring exercise via remote management is inherently challenging, as issues of enumerator training, consistent communication and verification of results are harder to resolve from afar. The CMWG has sought to overcome these issues by harmonising procedures and data collection tools to ensure that the data uploaded is as accurate as possible.
ENDNOTES 1 Source: Central Bank of Libya (2017, Nov 2). Retrieved from https:// cbl.gov.ly. The rates from 2 November and 5 October were used for the calculation of the monthly change. 2 Source: Afrigatenews (2017, Nov 2). Retrieved from http://www. afrigatenews.net. The rates from 2 November and 5 October were used for the calculation of the monthly change. 3 Source: Libya Herald (2017, Nov 5). Retrieved from http://www.libyaherald. com/. 4 Only includes locations with reference data from October. 5 The corresponding reference data of empty cells is not available. 6 Only includes locations with reference data from June (Azzintan, Brak, Derna, Ghyrian, Nalut, Sebha and Sirte). 7 Out of the 268 shops surveyed in the November round, data from 256 is available on payment modalities. 8 Since the October round, the boxplots and overall medians are built with city level medians. In previous rounds, the boxplots had taken into account the full dataset, i.e. data from each individual shop.
Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI), November 2017
Distribution of Prices in Libya8 FOOD ITEMS
15
15.5
10.6
10.2
10.2
3.5 0.3
3.0 2.5 0.4
2.5
3.0 1.0
2.5 2.0 0.5
0 Eggs Black tea Green tea (30 eggs) (250 g) (250 g)
Tuna (200 g)
FOOD ITEMS CONT.
20
32.8 3.1
Vegetable Chickpeas Tomatoes Potatoes oil (1 L) (400 g) (1 kg) (1 kg)
Beans (400 g)
Onions Condensed (1 kg) Milk (200 ml)
1.2
Flour (1 kg)
Baby milk (400 g)
Chicken meat (1 kg)
5 1.5 Baby diapers (30 diapers)
Salt (1 kg)
6.2 0.3
Laundry soap (1 kg)
Libya Cash & Markets Working Group
5.9 1.2
6.5
2.2
2.6
Toothpaste (100 ml)
Shampoo (250 ml)
4.0 0.3
2.7
3.9 1.2
0.9 Sanitary pads (10 pads)
0.3
Overall median price across city medians (LYD)
4.0
1.0
Change in overall median since last month (LYD)
5 3.0 2.2 ▶0
3
1.6 1.0 0.3
Lower quartile: 25% of city medians are below this point
▶
8.3 0.8
8
10.0
▶
Lamb meat (1 kg)
11.0
9.5
10
0
Bread (5 pieces)
1.0 1.0 ▶ 0
10
13.5
▶
11.1 9.8 0.6
1.2 0.3
Upper quartile: 25% of city medians are above this point
▶
11.2
15.0
Tomato paste (400 g)
0.5
13
22.0 2.0
▶
17.5 0.5
1.3 0.1
▶
17.0
▶
20
1.0
Maximum city median in dataset (LYD)
15
23.5
16.0
1.6 0.1
Pasta (500 g)
2.5
2.0
How to read a boxplot
▶
15
22.5
0
3
Rice (1 kg)
1.9 1.2 0.4
▶
25
40.0
10
3
Peppers Couscous (1 kg) (1 kg)
NON-FOOD ITEMS
▶
Price (LYD)
30
Milk (1 L)
1.0
3.0
2.5
▶
40
Sugar (1 kg)
2.1 0.1
▶
2.0
2.5 2.2 ▶ 0
▶
2.0
2.9 0.1
5.0
▶
3.5 ▶0
4.2
▶
2.8
4.0
▶
2.8
▶
2.5
3.9 0.1
4.2
4.0
▶
4.0 0.3
5.5 4.0
▶
3.6
4.0 3.5 0.3
6.0
5.0
▶
4.0 3.5 ▶ 0
5.1 ▶
4.0
4.6 0.4
6.0
▶
4.0
6.0
5.0
▶
▶
5
5.7
5.5 0.5
▶
6.5 1.0
▶
10
▶
Price (LYD)
▶
13.5 2.8
Dishwashing Toothbrush Handwashing liquid (1 brush) soap (1 L) (1 bar)
0
Minimum city median in dataset (LYD)
Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI), November 2017