JMMI - REACH Resource Centre

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Jan 2, 2018 - Some shops in Ghat reported shortages of fresh food items, such as meat and vegetables, but also vegetable
Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) January 2018

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

In an effort to better understand market dynamics in Libya, the Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) was initiated by the Libya Cash & Markets Working Group (CMWG) in June 2017. The initiative is guided by the CMWG Markets Taskforce, led by REACH and supported by the CMWG members. It is co-funded by OFDA and UNHCR. Markets in key urban areas across Libya are assessed on a monthly basis. In each location, field teams record prices and availability of basic food and nonfood items (NFI) sold in local shops and markets. This factsheet presents an overview of price ranges and medians for key foods and NFIs in the assessed areas. The cleaned data sets are available on the REACH Resource Centre and distributed to CMWG partners, as well as to the broader humanitarian community. In future rounds, the factsheet will include a Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB), which represents the minimum culturally adjusted group of items required to support a Libyan household for one month. The prices associated with the MEB will illustrate variations in prices across assessed locations. The MEB will be included once it has been agreed upon by all partners.

Data collection for the JMMI occurs on a monthly basis, with associated factsheets and datasets published and distributed after every round. The eighth round of data collection for the JMMI was conducted between 2 and 9 January 2018, during which enumerators from 5 CMWG partners (ACTED, DRC, Mercy Corps, WFP & REACH) gathered price data for 32 basic items from 323 individual shops in 24 locations. Unlike in previous months, no data was collected in Zwara for the January round. Coverage was restored in Murzuq. Field staff familiar with the local market conditions identified shops representative of the general price

ROUND 8 FIGURES 24 assessed cities 323 assessed shops 32 assessed items

EXCHANGE RATES 1.355 USD/LYD

8.840 USD/LYD

10.627 EUR/LYD

official1

parallel market2

parallel market2

- 0.5%

- 7.4%

- 6.1%

Libya Cash & Markets Working Group ASSESSED LOCATIONS level in their respective location. Assessed shops include supermarkets, bakeries, vegetable sellers and butchers, as well as central markets. At least four prices per assessed item were collected within each location. In line with the purpose of the JMMI, only the price of the cheapest available brand was recorded for each item. Enumerators were trained on methodology and tools by REACH. Data collection was conducted through the KoBo mobile application. Following data collection, REACH compiled and cleaned all partner data, normalising prices and cross-checking outliers.

ANALYSIS Food prices rose by 4.3% Food prices continued to climb upwards for the fourth month in a row. From December to January, food prices rose by 4.3%. The largest increase was observed in Zliten (+16.5%). In the south, food prices rose by 9.5%, while in the east (+1.4%) and west (+4.1%), the increases were more moderate.3 Notable price changes were registered for peppers (+38.9%) and tomatoes (-20.0%), the latter of which were the only monitored food item that saw a decrease in the overall median price from December to January. Sugar (+11.1%), eggs (+10.6%) and lamb meat (+5.6%) prices rose in almost all assessed locations. Other food items showed less fluctuation. Since October, overall food prices have risen by a considerable 19.3%. The increase was the most marked in Ghadamis, where food prices rose by 34.1%. NFI prices rose by 3.2% While NFI prices had remained stable in the previous round, they increased by 3.2% from December to January. In the east (+6.7%) and west (+9.6%), NFI prices moved upward considerably, while in the south a decline of 4.3% was registered. A noteworthly price hike was observed in Al-Kufrah

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Al-Bayda ( ! ( ! ( ! Al-Marj Derna !( Tobruk ( ! Sirte Benghazi ( !

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Ghadamis ( !

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Ajdabiya

Brak Sabha

Ubari ( !

! ( ( !

Ghat Murzuq Al-Gatroun ( ! ( !

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Al-Kufrah

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Northwest Libya Sabratha !(Tripoli ( ! Tarhuna !(Zliten Al-Aziziyah !( ( !

(+62.9%), where increases in laundry soap, shampoo and toothpaste prices led to an overall increase in the NFI price level. Stark increases were also registered in Ghadamis (+25.6%) and Tobruk (+24.8%). In Ghat a substantial decrease in NFI prices was observed (-28.5%). Prices of dishwashing liquid were found to rise substantially in the east and west, with an overall monthly increase of 26.9%. Toothbrush prices decreased by 12.5%, while prices of sanitary pads rose by 17.6%. Since October, the overall NFI price increase stands at 12.0%. While in the west and south, prices have only marginally increased since October, they have risen by a hefty 34.5% in the east. Libyan dinar appreciated on the parallel market After the Libyan dinar had depreciated against foreign currencies since October, it appreciated by 8.0% from December to January. Note that the reported data is from early January and therefore does not reflect the rapid appreciation of the Libyan dinar later that month. Some shortages found in Ghat and Sabha Some shops in Ghat reported shortages of fresh food items, such as meat and vegetables, but also vegetable oil and wheat flour. Shortages of chicken and lamb meat were also reported in some shops in Sabha.

Nalut

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Zintan

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Gharyan Bani Walid ( !

ASSESSED ITEMS Item Food Items

Salt Sugar Wheat flour Rice Pasta Couscous Tomato paste Chickpeas Beans Milk Condensed milk Baby milk

Non-Food Items

Hand washing soap Laundry powder Shampoo Dishwashing liquid Toothpaste Toothbrush Sanitary pads Baby diapers

Vegetable oil Green tea Black tea Canned tuna Eggs Chicken meat Lamb meat Bread Tomatoes Onions Peppers Potatoes

FOOD PRICE INDEX4

NFI PRICE INDEX4

EXCHANGE RATES OVER TIME8

Location

Food Price Index (in LYD)

Change since Dec 2017 (in %)

Change since Oct 2017 (in %)

Location

NFI Price Index (in LYD)

Change since Dec 2017 (in %)

Change since Oct 2017 (in %)

12

Murzuq Ubari Ghat Al-Gatroun Al-Kufrah Ghadamis Derna Gharyan Sabha Zintan Zliten Brak Al-Bayda Nalut Al-Aziziya Al-Marj Tobruk Sabratha Bani Walid Tripoli Tarhuna Sirte Ajdabiya Benghazi

119.0 116.8 112.8 109.4 106.0 106.0 99.6 99.4 98.3 97.7 95.6 95.4 94.2 93.4 91.6 91.5 91.0 90.6 89.3 89.0 88.2 87.4 87.3 85.5

n/a +6.0% +12.9% –0.1% +7.7% +13.8% +2.5% +7.4% +5.1% +1.4% +16.8% +7.9% +4.3% +6.1% +8.7% +6.6% –0.4% –0.5% +0.9% +1.3% +1.3% +2.1% +4.7% +1.4%

+13.1% +18.0% +27.0% +0.7% +21.8% +34.1% +8.5% +31.2% +12.6% +12.1% +24.6% +24.6% +22.3% +3.8% n/a n/a +11.6% n/a n/a +18.1% +18.8% +8.5% +14.1% +16.9%

Al-Kufrah Ubari Sabha Ajdabiya Al-Bayda Brak Tobruk Ghadamis Al-Marj Zliten Bani Walid Tarhuna Al-Gatroun Tripoli Gharyan Bengazi Sirte Derna Sabratha Nalut Zintan Al-Aziziya Ghat Murzuq

57.2 45.5 40.9 38.5 35.6 35.6 34.8 34.4 34.1 33.8 33.4 33.0 32.8 32.4 32.2 31.4 30.5 29.8 29.8 27.0 26.6 23.3 23.3 21.8

+62.9% +7.4% –13.6% +18.0% +3.7% –1.5% +24.8% +25.6% –2.6% +19.5% +3.6% +4.8% –11.8% +9.7% –13.1% –1.9% +2.5% –6.4% +9.7% –7.9% –8.9% –11.8% –28.5% n/a

+103.5% +12.5% +16.2% +48.1% +37.9% +11.3% –11.4% +10.0% n/a –5.3% n/a +40.1% –30.4% +16.0% +1.3% +19.3% –4.0% +16.1% n/a –11.8% +3.4% n/a –12.3% +19.2%

10

Median West Median East Median South

91.6 91.5 111.1

+4.1%5 +1.4%5 +9.5%5

+21.4%6 +16.8%6 +18.4%6

Median West Median East Median South

32.2 34.8 34.2

+9.6%5 +6.7%5 –4.3%5

+4.4%6 +34.5%6 +1.8%6

Median Overall

94.8

+4.3%5

+19.3%6

Median Overall

32.9

+3.2%5

+12.0%6

MEDIAN FOOD PRICE INDEX OVER TIME7 Oct 81.5

Nov 86.5

Dec 90.7

Jan 94.8

82+87+91+95 2

MEDIAN NFI PRICE INDEX OVER TIME7 Oct 30.6

Nov 32.4

Dec 32.1

Jan 32.9

31+32+32+33

Libya Cash & Markets Working Group

04-01-18: EUR/LYD: 10.627

8

04-01-18: USD/LYD: 8.840

6

4 04-01-18: USD/LYD: 1.405

2

0 Jan-16

Mar-16

May-16

Jul-16

Sep-16

USD/LYD at parallel market rate

Nov-16

Jan-17

Mar-17

USD/LYD at official rate

May-17

Jul-17

Sep-17

Nov-17

EUR/LYD at parallel market rate

CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS Coordinating a price monitoring exercise via remote management is inherently challenging, as issues of enumerator training, consistent communication and verification of results are harder to resolve from afar. The CMWG has sought to overcome these issues by harmonising procedures and data collection tools to ensure that the data uploaded is as accurate as possible.

ENDNOTES 1 Source: Central Bank of Libya (2018, Jan 4). Retrieved from www.cbl.gov.ly. The rates from 4 January 2018 and 3 December 2017 were used for the calculation of the monthly change. 2 Source: Ewan Libya (2018, Jan 4). Retrieved from www.ewanlibya.ly. The rates from 4 January 2018 and 3 December 2017 were used for the calculation of the monthly change. 3 East: Ajdabiya, Al-Bayda, Al-Kufrah, Al-Marj, Benghazi, Derna, Tobruk; West: Al-Aziziya, Bani Walid, Ghadamis, Gharyan, Nalut, Sabratha, Sirte, Tarhuna, Tripoli, Zintan, Zliten, Zwara; South: Al-Gatroun, Brak, Ghat, Murzuq, Sabha & Ubari. 4 The food price index was calculated by adding up the median prices of one unit of each food item (excluding baby milk and lamb meat), the NFI price index by adding up the median prices of one unit of each non-food item (excluding baby diapers). Where the median value is not available, the average price across all locations was assumed for the calculation of the indices. 5 Only includes locations with reference data from December 2017 and January 2018. 6 Only includes locations with reference data from October 2017. 7 Includes all locations assessed in a given month. 8 Sources: Official rate: Central Bank of Libya; Parallel market rates: Ewan Libya.

Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) – January 2018

Distribution of Prices in Libya FOOD ITEMS 15.5 14.4 1.4



15

10.0

4.0

3.0 2.5 0.1

4.0 3.0 0.8

1.8

2.2

4.2

4.0 3.0 ▶0

3.0 0.4

2.8 2.0 0.2

2.0

0 Eggs Black tea (30 eggs) (250 g)

Peppers Green tea (1 kg) (250 g)

FOOD ITEMS CONT.

40

46.0

38.0 2.0

Beans Condensed (400 g) Milk (200 ml)

19.5

20



13.2 1.2

10.0

1.0

1.3 0.1

Tomato paste (400 g)

0.5

1.2 0.1

Bread (5 pieces)

1.0

1.0 ▶0

Salt (1 kg)

Maximum location median* in dataset (LYD)

13

Upper quartile: 25% of location medians are above this point

10 22.5 0.3

8

18.0

14.5

10

8.3 0.4

Libya Cash & Markets Working Group

Toothpaste (100 ml)

5.7 0.4

3.1

Shampoo (250 ml)

3.0

4.7 0.7

Sanitary pads (10 pads)

4.1 0.9

4.5

1.2

1.0

3

3.5 2.2 0.3

1.0

1.3 0.1



Laundry powder (1 kg)

2.2

8.8

8.0 6.0 ▶0



1.0 Baby diapers (30 diapers)

0.3

Dishwashing Toothbrush Handwashing liquid (1 brush) soap (1 L) (1 bar)

0

Overall median price across location medians (LYD) Change in overall median since last month (LYD)

5

12.5

10.0



Chicken meat (1 kg)

Pasta (500 g)

15

0 Baby milk (400 g)

Flour (1 kg)

2.5

2.0

How to read a boxplot



3

Potatoes (1 kg)

40.0

▶ 11.0

Lamb meat (1 kg)

Onions (1 kg)

29.0

0

3

Chickpeas Tomatoes (400 g) (1 kg)

30

20.4 2.9

10

Rice (1 kg)

1.2

3.2

1.7 1.1 0.2



20

Vegetable oil (1 L)



29.5

Milk (1 L)

NON-FOOD ITEMS



30

Couscous (1 kg)

1.5

2.1 0.1



Price (LYD)

40

Tuna (200 g)



50

Sugar (1 kg)

3.5

3.0 2.5 ▶0



3.5 3.0 0.1



3.0

3.8 3.0 0.3

4.2

4.0 ▶0



3.0

4.0 ▶0

5.8



4.8 0.1

5.8



3.8

5.5



3.6

3.0

5.0



5.0 0.5



4.3

4.2

6.5

6.0



5.5 0.1





5

6.2

6.2 1.8



7.0 0.4

8.0



8.0



10



Price (LYD)

12.5

Lower quartile: 25% of location medians are below this point Minimum location median in dataset (LYD)

* The location median is the median price of a given item in a given location.

Libya Joint Market Monitoring Initiative (JMMI) – January 2018