basis of this MHA report is that there will be no let up in ... at a slight variance with the MHA figures but there is .
DEFENCE ■ BORDER DEPLOYMENT
KEEPING THE
HEAT ON
Rising infiltration and polls in Jammu and Kashmir put the army in overdrive on the borders ■
by Shishir GUPTA
ITH TEMPERATURES IN Ganganagar in the thirsty state of Rajasthan touching a scorching 48 degrees Celsius, it is not the best of times to carry out military manoeuvres. But five months after the Indian Army put its troops on maximum alert on the western borders it has launched phase two of “Operation Parakram (Valour)”. This involves regrouping and repositioning the army’s strike corps and training to keep troops battle-ready. The unsaid part of the move is that it is designed to keep the Pakistani troops on their toes and help the Indian forces retain the initiative. The decision to stay put on the western borders and keep close to half a million troops in continuous readiness was taken after intensive deliberations in South Block. It took into account the military’s capabilities, the cost of deployment, troop morale and the state of diplomatic play between the two adversaries. In mid-April, General S. Padmanabhan, chief of army staff, discussed the deployment and the military situation with his army commanders and a decision was taken to remain on the front with minimum stress to troops and equipment. Senior Defence Ministry officials say that the military posture will be reviewed by the Government in June but maintain that the chances of troop withdrawal in the near future are slim. Lt-General Vinay Shankar, former director-general of artillery, says, “The army deployment and its cost should not be seen in isolation but as part of the military-diplomatic offensive mounted by India after the December 13 attack on Parliament. It is an instrument to persuade Islamabad to stop cross-border terrorism and deliver on the list of 20 most-wanted Indian criminals in Pakistan.” South Block, too, is all for maintaining the current military-diplomatic stand-off till Pakistan President General
W
Pervez Musharraf translates his propeace January 12 speech into action and curbs cross-border terrorism. While US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage has been quoted as saying that cross-border infiltration has gone down in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the Indian assessment is different. The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) is of the view that infiltration in March and April this year has picked up in comparison to the 2001. In its Jammu and Kashmir situation report the MHA has said that 118 terrorists infiltrated into Indian territory in the past month and 132 a month before that. The report confirms the presence of Al Badr, Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorists in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK). It says that Arab, Afghan and Pakistani terrorists are living in tents in the outskirts of Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Bader and Samani towns in PoK. According to the MHA, there are 60 terrorist camps housing some 3,000 ultras. The Al Badr cadres, said to have returned from Afghanistan, are camp-
AFP PHOTO / TAUSEEF MUSTAFA
DEPLOYMENT UPS ... ■ Helps check cross-border infiltration
... AND DOWNS
in Jammu and Kashmir in coming summer months when mountain passes open.
■ Has already claimed lives of 176 soldiers and will put an additional burden of over Rs 1,500 crore on the exchequer.
■ Will help reduce Pakistan-sponsored violence in the run-up to Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections in September.
■ With no clear-cut political directive, it has adversely affected the morale and motivation of the deployed troops.
■ Lets Indian Army retain the initiative and the option to strike at terrorist camps in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.
■ Scorching heat will cause attrition of hi-tech equipment such as tanks, artillery guns and radars.
■ Puts pressure on General Pervez Musharraf to translate his January 12 anti-terrorism speech into action.
■ Will diminish India’s military credibility if the troops are withdrawn without tangible results on the infiltration front.
AP PHOTO/AMAN SHARMA
LONG VIGIL: Indian armour and troops continue to remain deployed at the IndiaPakistan border (above); With elections to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly due in September, forces in Srinagar are on alert
ing in sizable numbers some 40 km outside Muzaffarabad. There are also worrying reports that Al-Qaida and Taliban operatives have penetrated into Jammu. The overall assessment on the basis of this MHA report is that there will be no let up in Pakistan’s “compulsive hostility” against India and all efforts will be made by Islamabad to disrupt the forthcoming assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. The infiltration figures compiled by the Indian Army are at a slight variance with the MHA figures but there is convergence on the view that Delhi should be prepared for a “hot summer” in Jammu and Kashmir. Faced with the prospect of violence in the J&K elections, the Government has virtually decided to keep the troops on the border till October to ensure “free and fair” elections in the strife-torn state. This stand takes into account the October parliamentary elections in Pakistan. The perception is that Musharraf may ratchet up tensions on the border to raise the India bogey and bring the right wing Islamists to his side. Another reason for maintaining a vigil, from the Indian point of view, is
that its army retains the initiative to launch a strike against terrorist camps in PoK without fear of Pakistani retaliation in Punjab and Rajasthan. Lt-General Shankar says that in tactical terms the window for hostilities exists till the monsoon sweeps the subcontinent in June and opens again after October as autumn sets in. But the posturing is at a great cost to the exchequer. HE army’s study reveals that the initial mobilisation for Operation Parakram which includes transportation, supplies and logistics has cost the exchequer Rs 500 crore. Moving an infantry brigade of 3,000 men costs Rs 3-5 lakh. It cost Rs 25 lakh to move a regiment of 45 tanks by train, and artillery guns cost Rs 20 lakh per regiment in deployment. The deployment figure spirals to Rs 1,200 crore if one takes into account the troop field allowances, cost of getting supplies and compensation to villagers in border areas. Defence Ministry officials say Operation Parakram will cost between Rs 1,500 and Rs 2,000 crore if withdrawal takes place this year. These fig-
T
ures will shoot up if hostilities break out. The diplomatic pressure remains on course against Pakistan with India cementing its ties with Afghanistan, Iran and Tajikistan. During his recent visit to China, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh was told by his counterpart that Beijing was “cognisant” of the need for Pakistan to “pay attention” to the terrorism issue. During his visit to Dushanbe, Defence Minister George Fernandes signed a defence cooperation pact with Tajikistan on April 25. The visit of Afghanistan’s Defence Minister Mohammed Fahim Qasim Khan to India this month reveals the close relationship between the two sides in defence. All these events have raised concerns in the Pakistani military establishment. The reported statement of Lt-General Ehsan-ul-Haq, director-general, ISI, that a “high-risk” conflict was possible between India and Pakistan in the coming weeks is being seen as Islamabad’s move to seek US intervention in easing the present military stand-off. But till cross-border terrorism is curbed, the international community will find that India is in no mood to oblige. ■
MAY 20, 2002 ◆ INDIA TODAY
