land monitor report - HIA

LAND MONITOR REPORT -

2013-2014

Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report 2013-2014

CONTENTS


Introduction

3

Housing Industry Association Wagga Branch

3

Definitions

4

Accuracy & Data Interpretation

5

Disclaimer

5

Opteon Southern Inland NSW

5

Residential Land— Key Findings

7

Residential Land Graphs

8

Potential Residential Supply

15

Construction Statistics

20

Forecast Population and Dwellings

21

Commercial Land - Key Findings

23

Commercial Land - Graphs

24

Retail & Commercial Floorspace

27

22

The

Wagga

Wagga

Land

Monitor

Report

has been developed by the Housing Industry Association Wagga Branch and provides an overview of the vacant land supply in Wagga Wagga. The statistical information relates to historical take-up rates, current production and consumption together with future supply of vacant residential, rural residential, commercial and industrial land. This report also includes information regarding commercial and retail floor space together with demographics and development applications reported by financial years. It is hoped this information will enable stakeholders to make better informed decisions relating to market demand and future economic growth. The ultimate aim is to ensure that there is a sufficient supply and choice of vacant land going forward.

THE HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION WAGGA BRANCH The Housing Industry Association (HIA) is the official body of Australia’s home building industry. HIA is divided in nine geographic regions that provide a state or local focus, ensuing members needs and ideas are heard at the highest level. Our policy areas cover economics, industry, building, planning, industrial relations, legal, environment, training and skills. We advocate the views and policies of our members by contributing to enquiries and forums that impact on the residential building sector. For information on the local branch phone 1300 650 620 or email [email protected] We thank The City of Wagga Wagga for providing statistical data and contributing financially to the production of this report. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report 2013-2014

33

DEFINITIONS The following definitions have been adopted throughout this report:

Vacant Land A lot that is vacant and is suitable for either residential or non—residential use. Lots produced for the purpose of public reserves, road reserves and boundary adjustments etc. have been excluded from the vacant lot count.

Lots Produced Lots produced for either residential or non—residential use that have been registered with the New South Wales Land Titles Office (LTO). Lots produced for the purpose of public reserves, road reserves and boundary adjustments are not included in the lots produced count.

Lots Consumed

Industrial Use

Median

A vacant lot for which a Construction Certificate (CC) or Complying Development Certificate (CDC) has been issued. A CC or CDC provides consent for construction to take place on a lot.

Land suitable for industrial and business uses outside the CBD and removed from suburban shopping centres.

The median is the middle point of a number set, in which half the numbers are above the median and half are below.

Dwelling Use

Average

Lots Sold A vacant lot for which a Contract of Sale was exchanged during the financial year and that sale registered with the LTO. Settlement of the sale may have occurred after the end of the financial year. We have attempted to exclude any sales that are not arms length ie those between related parties.

Land suitable construction of residential dwelling.

for the a single

The average is obtained by dividing the sum of a set of values by the number of values in the set.

Rural Residential Use Land suitable for the construction of a single dwelling with a site area generally larger than 1,200 square metres.

Population The population statistics quoted in this report relate to the whole Local Government Area of Wagga Wagga.

Units Use Commercial Use Land in the Wagga Wagga central business district and in the vicinity of suburban shopping centres.


Land suitable for the construction of Community Title and/or Strata Title units, duplexes, multiple dwellings on one title and flat developments.

44

ACCURACY & DATA INTERPRETATION As with any statistical calculation, a margin of error will result. In this report such errors are minor and typical due to a small percentage of lots for which a construction certificate or complying development certificate has been issued but does not result in construction in the short term. This report should not be used as an indication of a change in market value or the performance of our economy. Property market growth or decline is the result of various factors not limited to:

 

The strength of the economy. Decreasing household sizes resulting in more houses being required for the same population.



Housing affordability as result of various factors such as interest rates and rising construction costs.

   

Temporary housing demand as result of major building projects.

OPTEON SOUTHERN INLAND NSW

The information in this report has been researched, collated and produced by Opteon Southern Inland New South Wales. Formerly Bolton Connolly, we are the largest real estate valuation and advisory firm in Wagga Wagga. Established in the late 1970s we have over 35 years’ experience in the Riverina and South West Slope’s regions of New South Wales. Through the Opteon Property Group our Wagga Wagga and Griffith offices are part of the largest valuation firm in Australia. Our local knowledge and experience together with our network around Australia ensures we can provide the highest quality advice regardless of your needs. When you next require professional property advice contact us at [email protected]

Government decisions and grants that affect homebuilders. A shortage of supply of land. The availability of large in globo parcels that attract larger property developers to the market.

DISCLAIMER Copyright in the report and the information is owned by the HIA Wagga Branch. Reproduction is not permitted without the prior written consent of the HIA. While the information contained in this report has been prepared with all due care for the benefit of the user, the HIA Wagga Branch, its officers, employees and agents do not warrant or make representations in relation to its accuracy. The information is made available on the understanding that the HIA shall not have a liability for any loss whatsoever that might arise as a result of use of the information by the reader or by third parties who receive information directly or indirectly. It is the user’s responsibility to make his or her own investigations, decisions and enquiries about the accuracy and completeness of the information.


55

Residential 2013-2014 SNAPSHOT




775 vacant residential lots.



257 new vacant lots produced - a 20% decrease.



421 lots in the city have been vacant for over 4 years.



299 lots were built on - a 50% increase.



Average price of vacant lots remains static.



295 vacant lots were sold.



221 of sold lots were between 600 & 1,500 sqm.



Approx. 4,025 potential future lots zoned residential.

66

2013-2014 KEY FINDINGS RESIDENTIAL LAND  As at 30 June 2014, there were 775 vacant  299 vacant lots were built on in the city, a  The average vacant lot price per square

residential lots in Wagga Wagga and 421 of them had been vacant for more than 4 years.  Tatton had the highest number of existing

vacant land at 100 lots.

50% increase on the year before. 60% were located in four suburbs, being Boorooma, Tatton, Lloyd and Bourkelands.  Wagga Wagga’s established suburbs had the

metre is relatively consistent across the majority of suburbs at $140 to $180 per square metre. (The small sample size in some suburbs is causing distortion, particularly in Tolland).

highest proportion of land that had been vacant for more than 4 years.  Central Wagga Wagga remains our most Central Wagga Wagga, 97 are in one expensive suburb per square metre due to a development.  Both the average ($139,000) and median limited supply of land. ($125,000) lot prices remained static over the  257 new vacant lots were produced in the last two years.  In 2011 the population of the Wagga Wagga city. This is a 20% decrease compared to the Local Government Area (LGA) was year before which is largely due to a Central  The highest demand was for vacant lots 61,781. Wagga Wagga unit development in 2012-13. between 600 and 1,500 square metres The number of vacant dwelling lots accounting for 75% of the 295 lots sold in  Between 2015-16 the population is estimated produced increased by 29% . 2013-14. to increase by 1.4% to 64,748.  Of the 107 lots produced in 2012-13 in

 Of

the 257 vacant lots produced in  Demand for rural residential lots has  This equates to an increase of 897 people, 2013-14 91% were located in four suburbs remained constant over the last two years at which divided by the average household size being Bourkelands, Gobbagombalin (Estella about 15% of sales. of 2.52 people results in an estimate of 356 Rise), Estella and Boorooma. new homes or units required in 2015-16.


77

The following totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties


88


99



1010



1111


1212

Total lots that have been vacant for more than 4 years at 30 June 2014

421 Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report 2013-2014

1313

The above totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties


1414

ESTIMATED POTENTIAL LOTS CURRENTLY ZONED RESIDENTIAL NOT SUBDIVIDED Estimated potential greenfield lots

Gobbagombalin

Boorooma

1,250 Lots Estella

350 Lots

4,025

380 Lots

Turvey Park 60 Lots Governors Hill 135 Lots

Forest Hill 650 Lots Lloyd 1,200 Lots

This information was supplied by active land developers and represents the majority of potential greenfield residential subdivisions, other smaller developable parcels are located throughout the city. Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report 2013-2014

1515

The following totals include vacant sites suitable for the construction of single residential dwellings, unit developments and rural-residential properties (rhs)

(rhs)


1616


1717


1818


1919

CONSTRUCTION STATISTICS

Source: id.com 2015


2020

FORECAST POPULATION AND DWELLINGS

New dwellings required per year Existing Lots (excluding aged)

2014-15

At 30 June 2014

354 Wagga Wagga Land Monitor Report 2013-2014

2015-16

418

Potential future lots 4,025

10-12 years supply

356 2121

commercial 2013-2014 SNAPSHOT




11 industrial lots produced.



89 vacant industrial lots.



The majority, (74%) of vacant industrial lots are at East Wagga Wagga.



30 vacant commercial lots.



Non-residential construction was 50% lower than the year before and below the long term average.



Fitzmaurice Street is the commercial/services sector and Baylis Street is the main retail precinct.

2222

2013-2014 KEY FINDINGS COMMERCIAL LAND 

As of 30 June 2014 there  At 30 June 2014, of the 89  The Fitzmaurice Street were 30 vacant vacant industrial lots 74% area is the commercial/ commercial land parcels in were located in the East services sector of the CBD the city, four had been Wagga Wagga area. while Baylis Street is the developed during 2013-14. main retail precinct. 



Over the last 2 years industrial land had been relatively consistent with 10 lots produced in 201212, 11 lots produced in 2013-14 and 1 lot built on each year.


Non-residential construction cost has  There are 8 shopping fluctuated over the last 6 malls and arcades in the years. 2013-14 was 50% CBD. below the previous year and about 30% below the 6 year average.

2323


2424


2525


2626

RETAIL & COMMERCIAL FLOORSPACE EXISTING AT 30 JUNE 2014


2727


2828