Nov 16, 2017 - Global animal product demand continues to grow ... Local and non local produced feed: ... Limited data (r
Livestock and global food security with special focus on the feed/food debate Some alternative facts by Cees de Haan
Presentation at SKOV 16/11/2017
My background • Born and raised on a dairy farm; • Studied tropical animal production at WUR; • Career in livestock development; • But also critical on the sector: – Livestock’s long shadow;
• Thus only limited prolivestock bias
Champion of vegetarian groups with 3223 citations
Main messages • The livestock sector makes important positive contributions to global food security; • There are undoubtedly a number of negative effects, often pushed by anti-livestock groups: – Less drain on human plant-based food than often assumed; and
• There is a good pool of technology and policy measures to mitigate the negative effects.
THE LIVESTOCK SECTOR’S CONTRIBUTION TO GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
Livestock’s positive contributions to food security • Produces over 1 billion million ton (meat and milk combined) of highly nutritious food (25 % of global protein consumption, main source of some vitamins); – Test scores primary school students increase by 5 and 20 % with small amount of meat (Neumann, 2007) • 40% of Agricultural GDP and growing….. • Income/food/drought resilience tool for 1.5 billion people, of which 750 million below poverty line and the majority women; • Essential for arable farming (traction, manure, fertilizer); – (15-80 % of farms in Africa with traction and key organic fertilizer almost everywhere else) • Stabilizes grain markets; and • Key component of a circular economy; – Reduces land requirements without resource depletion (Fresco, 2017)
Global animal product demand continues to grow (million tons) 600
500
400
Eggs Poultry
300
Pork 200
Red meat
100
0
1961/1963
2005/2007
2050
SOME ALTERNATIVE FACTS ON THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER, COMPETITION FOR LAND AND FOOD/FEED
But: 51 % is based on document that: • Uses starting point first version of Long Shadow (18%) • Lower(13.5%)—more correct-- share almost never quoted • Compares complete chain with muffler emission only • Adds all livestock respiration; and • Double counts: all livestock related emission of world with and then adds without livestock
26000 Liters per kg meat
• Pimentel (2004) even higher (120,000-200,000 kg meat) by allocating all precipitation on rangeland to meat • Mekonnen et al (2012) • Only halve of what quoted in fake news; • 94 % is green water (part of the evapotranspiration flux);
30000
Water use/kg meat
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Netherlands
Av. 4 countries
Cowspiracy
Source Mekonnen et al 2012
Meat/plant-based diet choices The main focus of this presentation
Financieel Dagblad 08/25/2017
Chickens and pigs convert grain into meat at rates of two or three to one (ie, it takes 2kg of feed to produce 1kg of chicken). The ratio for lamb is between four and over six to one and that for beef starts at five to one and goes as high as 20 to one The Economist 31/12/2013 Similar high grain/meat ratios spread through scientific literature (see paper)
But, these data: • Doesn’t recognize the wide variety of production systems and other services of livestock; and • Gives only the conversion rate of beef cattle at feedlot stage: – Accounts for only between 7% (FAO, 2009) and 13 % (our study) of global beef production; and – Cover only the final stage of the fattening period.
The Feed/Food Debate From champion to villain of the vegetarian community
Inputs/outputs GLEAM model used in this paper Feed •
Ruminants For each production system calculates ration in each pixel and aggregated to global level
Nonruminants
Industrialized: national inventories, surveys, lit. • Developing: modeling feed availability (crops and fodder) and animal requirements, expert knowledge
Validated with 121 publications
Swill and scavenging Local and non local produced feed: Yields, literature and local knowledge. Land use potential for food production
Spatial distribution of pasture and rangeland maps( FAO, Henderson) and ILASA/FAO actual/potential yield ratio(25%) for unsuitable crop land
Livestock distribution Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) Robinson/FAO
More information: see paper (supplemental information) and Gerber et al (2013)
RESULTS Land use, feed intake and feed conversion (global and by species/region)
Current global land use for livestock
5%
7% 27%
11%
Grassland suitable for food crops Grassland unsuitable for crops
Grain for livestock Oil seed crops Other crops
50%
Source Mottet et al 2017
Global grassland suitable and unsuitable for crop production
Source: Robinson et al 2014
Global livestock feed intake Fodder crops 8%
6 Billion ton Dry Matter
Crop residues 19%
Grass and leaves 47%
Oil seed cakes 5%
By-products 5% Grains 13% Other edible 3% Source Mottet et al 2017
Human edible food to animal source food conversion To Produce 1 kg boneless meat
To Produce 1 kg animal protein
Kg DM human edible feed
Kg human Kg human edible edible food food protein protein needed (including all soybean) needed
Ruminants
2.8
0.6
1.0
Non ruminants
3.2
2.0
4.2
All species
3.1
1.3
2.6
Source Mottet et al 2017
Breakdown by region and system of key feed conversion data Species
System
Kg DM human edible food/kg deboned meat
KG protein from human edible feed/kg protein product
NON OECD
OECD
NON OECD
OECD
Grazing
0.9
3.9
0.2
0.5
Mixed
3.1
6.0
0.5
0.7
Feedlot
7.9
9.4
3.5
4.1
Poultry
Broilers
3.5
3.6
5.2
5.0
Pigs
Industrial
3.9
4.0
4.6
4,4
Cattle
Source Mottet et al 2017
Limitations of the paper • Limited data (rations, livestock numbers, feed use efficiency); • Land allocation lacks opportunity costs criteria; • Assumptions on actual/potential yield in grassland convertibility: – A change from the currently used 25% to 10 % would increase are of grassland suitable for cropping by about 20%
• Changing consumption patterns and policies.
??????
POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENTS Production side: • Land use and GHG emission. Consumption side: • Alternative sources of protein, reduction of consumption
Effect of increasing feed conversion efficiency on changes in human edible food intake by livestock and area needed to grow human (2010-2025) Meat Production
Intake
Area
Low FCR increase (a)
High FCR increase (b)
Low FCR increase(a)
High FCR increase(b)
Non OECD
+24%
+20%
+14%
-4%
-10%
OECD
+14%
+12%
+7%
+1%
-4%
Total
+21%
+17%
+15%
-2%
-8%
a: 0-5 % improvement in FCR, depending on the species b: 7-15% improvement in FCR, depending on the species
Source Mottet et al 2017
GHG emission reduction potential
Whole sector applying the practices of the 10th percentile of producers with the lowest emissions intensities, while maintaining constant output. http://www.fao.org/gleam/results/en/
Effect of Intensification on GHG emission in milk production
GHG sequestration and emission reduction Silvo-pastoral systems • Annually 5 ton CO2 eq./ha sequestered Methane and nitrous oxide reduced by 21 percent and 36 percent respectively. Average price US $ 9 per ton; • Bio-diversity in birds and butterflies increased by 40 and 94 percent respectively; • Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) water improved from 11 ppm in 2003 to less than 1.2 ppm in 2007; • Average annual net farmers income in Costa Rica and Nicaragua increased from US $ 136 to US $ 216 per ha; and • Poor farmers earned a higher payment per ha than the wealthier groups.
Other technologies A fast moving field • Rumen manipulation – Inhibitors, enzymes, etc.
• Feed quality improvement; – Crude protein and fiber.
• Genetic improvement – Selection for low methane emission, productivity.
• Manure management – Storage, biogas, etc.
OR
CONSUMER SIDE Alternative sources of protein
Protein consumption/person (g/day) meat dairy eggs total (not butter) Region Africa Americas Asia
Europe Oceania Least developed countries
year 1995 2005 1995 2005 1995 2005 1995 2005 1995 2005
5.3 5.9 26.1 28.1 7.5 9.2 24.1 24.7 24.9 39.3
3.1 3.4 14.3 14.1 3.8 4.7 17.9 19.2 18 15.8
0.6 0.6 2.7 3.1 2.2 2.7 3.6 3.8 1.9 1.7
9 9.9 43.1 45.3 13.5 16.6 45.6 47.7 44.8 56.8
1995
3.3
2.2
0.2
5.7
2005
4.1
2.7
0.3
7.1
Livestock protein as % of recommended of total “safe” consumption 17 78 29 82 98
12 FAO SOFA (2011)
Reducing consumption • Reducing consumption in OECD countries: – Healthy diet 500 gram red meat per week (WHO) – EU (28) now 800 gr. – Processed meat.
• Veganism: – Only 1 percent of OECD population (5 percent vegetarianism); – Increases but from very low basis; – Flexitarians strongest increase.
• Meat substitutes: – 5 % of meat market; increasing over past decade – But still major important challenges ahead.
Policy measures Carrots
Sticks
• Further shift EU/GOV subsidies from production to environmental services; • Increase research funding on efficiency and GHG reduction; • Increased support for veterinary services in nonOECD; and • Educate public on trade-offs:
• Polluter pays, provider gets: – Meat tax; – GHG tax. • Stricter regulation (zonation); and • Institutional reform veterinary services.
– Intensification and efficiency vs. animal welfare
Key messages The situation • Livestock sector has positive and negative impacts of global food security • Many of the information in the press is “cherry-picked” and often biased; But: • Global consumption of animal source food will increase, in particular in the non-OECD countries. It is there where arguably the biggest gains can be in mitigating GHG and land use expansion; • Livestock is of crucial importance to the poor in non-OECD countries; There is no silver bullet: • Combination of carrots and sticks needed at consumer and producer side
Crucial is the political and human will..
