Local Labour Market Plan - Workforce Planning Board of Waterloo ...

Local Labour Market Plan Waterloo Wellington Dufferin Update - 2012

The Workforce Planning Board of Waterloo Wellington Dufferin (WPB) covers one of twenty-five (25) local planning zones across Ontario. Our role is to engage communities and community partners in local labour market development. WPB is now responsible for communities across Waterloo Region, Wellington County and Dufferin County. Our neutral position within the community allows us to act as a mechanism to bring together divergent labour market partners (labour, business, service providers, education/training, economic development, equity groups) to develop local solutions to local workforce development issues. In operation since 1997, The Workforce Planning Board is celebrating 15 years of service in 2012 as a community directed, nonprofit corporation leading Waterloo Region, Wellington County and Dufferin County in their approach to workforce development and labour market planning. Our Vision:

We envision the continuous development of a leading edge workforce.

Our Mission: Engage partners to find solutions to local workforce development needs. The material contained in this report has been prepared by WPB and is drawn from a variety of sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. In providing this material, WPB does not assume any responsibility or liability.

This Employment Ontario Project is funded by the Government of Ontario.

The views expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect those of Employment Ontario Report researched and compiled by: Carol Simpson, Executive Director, WPB We would like to express our thanks to all those who participated in the development of this report.

Local Labour Market Plan – 2012

TAB L E OF C O NTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Consultation Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 ■ Waterloo Wellington Dufferin – The Big Picture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Labour Market Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Who’s Looking for Work? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 ■ Activity in Waterloo Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Labour Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Business Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Growth/Decline in Industry Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 ■ Activity in Wellington County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Labour Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 Business Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 Growth/Decline in Industry Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 ■ Activity in Dufferin County . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Labour Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 Business Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Growth/Decline in Industry Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 ■ Industry Update . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 NAICS 111 Crop Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 NAICS 112 Animal Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 NAICS 541 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 NAICS 332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 NAICS 311 Food Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 NAICS 326 Plastics and Rubber Product Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 NAICS 336 Transportation Equipment Manufacturers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17 NAICS 523 Securities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 NAICS 524 Insurance Carriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 NAICS 484 Truck Transportation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 ■ Strategic Priorities and Action Plan - Update . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Strategic Priority #1 Alignment of existing training/education programs to match shifting skill requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Strategic Priority #2 Marketing of existing employment opportunities to new workers and workers in transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Strategic Priority #3 Rising Skill Demands/Shift in Key Employment Sectors . . . . .23 Strategic Priority #4 Older Worker Retention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Strategic Priority #5 Engaging Underutilized Talent Pools – Incorporating under represented populations into the workforce . . . . . . . . .24 ■ Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 Local Labour Market Plan – 2012

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Executive Summary Since the recession in 2008, we have been closely following and reporting on employment and business pattern trends in specific industries identified as key to the Waterloo Wellington Dufferin planning zone, either because of potential growth or decline or as important to local economic development strategies. This latest analysis appears to indicate that some stability has now returned to our local labour market. Participation rates are generally much higher than those for Ontario which is good for providing a larger pool of workers to our labour market and also unemployment rates continue to decline across the area, particularly in the Guelph Census Metropolitan Area where the unemployment rate has dipped below 4%. This situation is not good news though for everyone in the labour market. It is clear that there are a number of misconceptions about employment opportunities in local industries, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Many employers in the sector have indicated that they are having difficulty finding workers at all skill levels. Fewer young people considering entering the industry, lower wages for unskilled workers and a perception in the community that the industry is dying are among several reasons cited. The reality is that many of those businesses who came through the recession are now successfully serving new or existing markets and will need to be able to access labour if they are to remain viable and competitive. Also, According to a recent US report1, several indicators are predicting the return of manufacturing to the North American market for goods consumed here. Increases in transportation costs and wages and benefits are slashing China’s labour cost advantage and within the next 5 years, the cost savings of manufacturing in China versus several US states will become minimal. If this is the case, then we’ll require more not fewer workers to enter the industry Often the skill sets of potential workers are not necessarily aligned with their industry of choice or their desired earning potential while others remain fixed on accessing opportunities that are in decline or no longer exist. To assist in transition from one industry to another, a number of tools have already been developed by industry sector councils to assist service providers and job seekers in identifying these transferable skills sets e.g. industrial manufacturing to biomanufacturing but they need to be much more accessible to users. There have been several major negative impacts to the labour market since the last report including the layoffs at Research in Motion and the announcement of the Schneiders closure. We are fortunate that both the IT and Food Processing sectors are strong in this area and should provide opportunities to reabsorb a good number of the affected workers, however not all. In the Schneider case, in particular, there is clearly a window of opportunity to potentially identify lower skilled workers and provide upgrading opportunities to ease their transition into new employment should there be a will be there to do so.

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Made in America, Again. Why Manufacturing will return to the US. The Boston Consulting Group, August 2011


INTRO DU C TIO N

This 2012 local labour market plan update will examine labour market supply, report on the many activities listed in the action plan and provide an update on the following industries: • Crop Production • Animal Production • Professional, Scientific and Technical Services • Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturers • Plastics and Rubber Product Manufacturers • Food Manufacturers • Transportation Equipment Manufacturers • Securities • Insurance Carriers • Truck Transportation

Consultation Process It is anticipated that new data will likely become available over the coming year which will enable workforce planning boards across Ontario to develop new and up to date base local labour market profiles for each community. These profiles will provide the basis for a full labour market planning consultation process in 2012-13 which will result in the development of a new 1-3 year labour market action plan. Since this report is an update only, formal community/industry consultations were not deemed necessary however the regular labour market indicator analysis is incorporated into the report as well as information from several other sources including: • Labour market indicator data from Statistics Canada (for list see Appendix 1) • Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey data • Front line employment services staff survey • Caseload demographics from several Employment Ontario agencies from April 1 to December 31, 2011 • Program application data from Conestoga College for 2008-2011


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THE BIG PICTURE

Waterloo Wellington Dufferin – The Big Picture Labour Market Supply Training Understanding the labour market and where it affords opportunities is critical in selecting appropriate training programs. One way to understand which careers seem to be most appealing to students and others looking to change careers is to look at which programs are most in demand. A review of student program selections at Conestoga College shows that a number of programs have increased in popularity from 2008-2011 and from 2010-2011 while the demand for others has dropped off. In some cases, notably basic machine operator, several programs have been suspended due to lack of interest. This is concerning since we know from the manufacturing sector that the demand still exists for this type of skill set. Industries such as food processing are in need of workers and new programs have been established to provide the skilled workers required yet the new Food Technician program at Conestoga received far fewer applications than anticipated. It is expected that a marketing campaign will result in increased applications. Other manufacturing related programs such as general machinist, tool and die maker and millwright have each seen a major drop off in demand ranging from 45-65% fewer applications since 2008. This is a growing concern in that more will have to be done locally to promote employment opportunities in the manufacturing sector if we are to be able to support existing employers by meeting their demand for skilled and semi-skilled workers. Other large local industries such as Insurance are expecting high staff turnover and therefore creating a need for replacement workers over the next several years as reported in the last planning report. Demand for this type of training however has remained steady over the last three years. These types of examples indicate that high school students and other job seekers may not be getting enough current and accurate labour market information to understand where the opportunities are. In the Health Care sector, demand for the Practical Nursing program has increased by 47% from 639 applications in 2008 to 941 in 2011. Even though we are in dire need of nurses in the labour market both now and for the foreseeable future, there is simply not enough capacity in the system to handle everyone who wants to be trained in that occupation. According to the Ministry of Training, Colleges and Universities, there were 29,155 apprentice registrations in Ontario in 2010/2011. Industrial sector registrations were up by 23% from the previous year at 4,058 while service sector registrations were down by 5% to 12,077. The increase in the industrial sector is likely due to the increasing skills requirements of the sector and growth in such sectors as mining, energy and continuing demand for higher skills sets in the manufacturing sector.

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According to Statistics Canada, from January to November 2011 the average unemployment rate for youth aged 15-24 was 16%. In Economic Region 5402 the unemployment rate was 16.6%, slightly higher than Toronto at 16.3%. A recent study by the Workforce Planning Board “Waterloo Wellington Youth Employment Study” reiterated the need for more flexibility in establishing youth program criteria to allow youth to more easily access assistance. One federal program, Skills Link, has just recently completely removed high school completion as an eligibility requirement in an attempt to assist more youth facing employment barriers. Several Employment Ontario service providers were asked to provide information on the clients they had served between April 1 and December 31, 2011. The average was taken of all responses received, representing over 1,600 clients, and the results are listed in the table below.

26 weeks out of school/work

Average 55.0% 9.8% 26.4% 24.9%

Only one provider broke down the