Oct 26, 2014 - Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. âNow, this is a contest that could go eith
Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Poughkeepsie, NY 12601 Phone 845.575.5050 Fax 845.575.5111 www.maristpoll.marist.edu
POLL MUST BE SOURCED: NBC News/Marist Poll* North Carolina: Hagan and Tillis Tied in U.S. Senate Race *** Complete Tables for Poll Appended *** For Immediate Release: Sunday, October 26, 2014 Contact:
Lee M. Miringoff Barbara L. Carvalho Mary E. Griffith Marist College, 845.575.5050
This NBC News/Marist Poll reports: In the contest for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, 43%, and her Republican challenger and state legislator Thom Tillis, 43%, are in a dead heat among North Carolina likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early. Six percent are undecided, and 6% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they might vote differently. Hagan and Tillis maintain their support among their respective party’s base. However, Tillis leads Hagan among independents likely to vote. A gender gap also exists. Hagan has a 10 point advantage among women likely to go to the polls while Tillis is up 11 among men. “Up until this point, incumbent Hagan has been considered the strongest Democrat among the so-called Democratic firewall states in this election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Now, this is a contest that could go either way, and the outcome may determine control of the Senate.” Poll points: • Hagan and Tillis are tied with 43% in the contest for U.S. Senate among likely voters in North Carolina including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early. Libertarian Sean Haugh garners 7% of the vote, and 6% are undecided. In NBC News/Marist’s survey earlier this month, Hagan had 44% to 40% for Tillis. • Allegiance falls along party lines. Among independents likely to cast a ballot, Tillis, 41%, has a 10 point advantage over Hagan, 31%, an increase from the 4 point edge he previously had. Haugh receives the support of 17% of independents, up slightly from 12%.
*All references to the survey must be sourced as “NBC News/Marist Poll.”
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A gender gap remains. Hagan, 48%, outpaces Tillis, 38%, among women likely to vote. Tillis, 49%, leads Hagan, 38%, among men likely to cast a ballot. 58% of likely voters with a candidate preference including those who voted early strongly support their choice of candidate for U.S. Senate, up from 50% in early October. Six percent of voters with a candidate preference might vote differently. More of Hagan’s supporters, 67%, are firmly committed to her than Tillis’ backers, 54%, are to him. Among North Carolina registered voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early, Hagan has 42% to 40% for Tillis and 8% for Haugh. Nine percent are undecided. Both Hagan and Tillis have higher negative than positive ratings. 48% of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Hagan, and 41% have a favorable impression of her. 44% have a negative impression of Tillis, and 40% have a positive opinion of him. Job creation and economic growth, 20%, is the top concern for North Carolina likely voters in deciding their vote for Congress. Health care, 16%, and breaking the partisan gridlock in Washington, 15%, capture the second and third spots. Social Security and Medicare, 12%, follows. Military action against ISIS and the deficit and government spending each receives 10%. Looking out for the interests of women, 5%, and immigration, 3%, follow. President Barack Obama’s job approval rating in North Carolina, 37%, remains low among residents. The president’s score was 39% in early October.
*All references to the survey must be sourced as “NBC News/Marist Poll.”
How the Survey was Conducted
Nature of the Sample: NBC News/Marist Poll of 1,216 North Carolina Adults This survey of 1,216 adults was conducted October 19th through October 23rd, 2014 by The Marist Poll sponsored in partnership with NBC News. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of North Carolina were interviewed by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of North Carolina from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. Respondents in the household were selected by asking for the youngest male. To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. The two samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2010 Census results for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±2.8 percentage points. There are 1,070 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.0 percentage points. There are 756 likely voters defined by a probability turnout model. This model determines the likelihood respondents will vote in the November 2014 election based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points. The error margin increases for cross-tabulations.
Nature of the Sample - North Carolina North Carolina Adults
North Carolina Registered Voters
North Carolina Likely Voters
Col %
Col %
Col %
North Carolina Adults
100%
North Carolina Registered Voters
88%
100%
North Carolina Likely Voters
62%
71%
n/a
6%
8%
Democrat
n/a
44%
44%
Republican
n/a
33%
33%
Independent
n/a
24%
22%
Other
n/a
0%
0%
Democrat
n/a
36%
37%
Republican
n/a
30%
31%
Independent
n/a
32%
30%
Other
n/a
2%
2%
Very liberal
n/a
6%
6%
Liberal
n/a
16%
15%
Moderate
n/a
32%
32%
Conservative
n/a
32%
31%
Very conservative
n/a
15%
15%
Yes
n/a
84%
90%
No
n/a
16%
10%
Men
48%
48%
48%
Women
52%
52%
52%
Under 45
46%
42%
38%
45 or older
54%
58%
62%
18 to 29
20%
16%
12%
30 to 44
26%
26%
25%
45 to 59
27%
29%
31%
60 or older
27%
30%
32%
White
69%
70%
71%
African American
21%
21%
21%
Latino
6%
5%
5%
Other
4%
4%
4%
East
26%
26%
25%
Raleigh-Durham Triangle Charlotte Area
18%
18%
20%
16%
16%
15%
Piedmont/Central
22%
22%
21%
West
18%
17%
19%
Less than $75,000
74%
72%
69%
$75,000 or more
26%
28%
31%
Not college graduate
67%
66%
63%
College graduate
33%
34%
37%
Married
50%
53%
56%
Not married
50%
47%
44%
Married men
25%
27%
29%
Not married men
21%
19%
18%
Married women
25%
26%
27%
Not married women
29%
28%
26%
Landline
55%
58%
60%
Cell Phone
45%
42%
40%
Early Voters Party Registration
Party Identification
Political Ideology
Past Participation** Gender Age Age
Race
Region
Household Income Education Marital Status Marital Status and Gender
Interview Type
100%
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Adults. Interviews conducted October 19th through October 23rd, 2014, n=1216 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. North Carolina Registered Voters: n=1070 MOE +/- 3.0 percentage points. North Carolina Likely Voters: n=756 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Tables of Likely Voters
North Carolina Likely Voters Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Row %
Row %
Row %
North Carolina Likely Voters
40%
55%
6%
Party Identification
Democrat
82%
13%
5%
Republican
5%
92%
3%
Independent
26%
65%
9%
Very liberal-Liberal
78%
18%
3%
Moderate
48%
46%
7%
Conservative-Very conservative
17%
79%
4%
East
46%
51%
3%
Raleigh-Durham Triangle
42%
54%
4%
Charlotte Area
46%
44%
10%
Piedmont/Central
33%
59%
9%
West
30%
66%
4%
Less than $75,000
42%
53%
5%
$75,000 or more
36%
58%
6%
Not college graduate
37%
57%
5%
College graduate
44%
50%
6%
White
25%
70%
5%
African American
89%
7%
4%
18 to 29
40%
44%
16%
30 to 44
41%
54%
5%
45 to 59
40%
56%
4%
60 or older
38%
59%
3%
Men
35%
59%
6%
Women
44%
51%
6%
Married
32%
63%
4%
Not married
49%
44%
7%
Married men
31%
65%
4%
Not married men
41%
51%
8%
Married women
34%
62%
4%
Not married women
55%
38%
7%
Landline
37%
57%
5%
Cell Phone
43%
51%
6%
Political Ideology
Region
Household Income Education Race Age
Gender Marital Status Marital Status and Gender
Interview Type
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Likely Voters. Interviews conducted October 19th through October 23rd, 2014, n=756 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina October 2014
1
NBC News/Marist Poll North Carolina Tables of Likely Voters
North Carolina Likely Voters North Carolina tossup for U.S. Senate including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early Kay Hagan, the Thom Tillis, the Sean Haugh, the Democrat Republican Libertarian Other Undecided Row %
Row %
Row %
Row %
Row %
North Carolina Likely Voters
43%
43%
7%
