Nov 17, 2017 - MARKET WATCH NPL // Flash Update November 2017. Highlights o. NPL Transactions are expected to grow expon
MARKET WATCH NPL - The Italian Scenario Flash Update November 2017 NPL transactions are expected to reach the 101 Bn € by the end of the year - Bn €
Few servicers will manage the largest deals in the NPL market
Sources: Banca IFIS NPL Market Database – Press releases and news
Sources: Banca IFIS NPL Market Database – Press releases and news * From Oct’17 “Italian Recovery Fund”
Large Deals
2,6
Size – Bn €
Servicers
13,0
Quaestio – Cerved (Juliet)
8,0
DoBank
5,1
To be defined
Atlante II *
58,9 2,5
MPS
101,5 19,1
17,3
5,9
Caricesena; Carim; Carismi
8,9 17,0
13,2
8,5
2015 Primary Mkt
17,0
37,5
2016 Secondary Mkt
2017 Est Primary Mkt Est
2,7
Quaestio
Nuova Banca Etruria; Nuova Banche Marche; Nuova CariChieti
2,2
Banche venete
10,2
REV Gestione Crediti
9,0
2018 Pipeline Secondary Mkt Est
SGA
Highlights o
NPL Transactions are expected to grow exponentially in the last part of the year reaching the massive amount of 101 Bn €
o
Some deals previously planned on 2017 should be postponed to 2018
o
The 2017 secondary market expected to close at 5 Bn € equal to 5% of expected volumes
o
By the end of the year following large deals are expected to close: MPS 26,1 Bn € - Banche venete 10 Bn €
o
Along with closing of 2017 transactions, banks are planning the 2018 disposals (currently 17 Bn €)
To be defined 17,7
Unicredit (Fino)
The increasing disposal trend starts to have a positive impact on the net balance between new and closed bad loans positions - K Positions Sources: Banca d’Italia
106 29
53
102
116
54
49
54
68
69 15 -31
-40 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Highlights o
The 2017 shows a positive trend on the closed bad loans positions thanks to the strong effort in the management and disposal of NPLs • The Q1 2017 net balance is the lowest since 2007 • The Q2 2017 net balance is negative
General statement
This publication is edited by Banca IFIS. The information contained herein, obtained from sources believed to be reliable by Banca IFIS, are not necessarily complete, and their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This publication is provided merely for purposes of illustration and information and does not in any way represent financial and investment advice. MARKET WATCH NPL // Flash Update November 2017
2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017