MARKET WATCH NPL - The Italian Scenario Flash Update November ...

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Nov 17, 2017 - MARKET WATCH NPL // Flash Update November 2017. Highlights o. NPL Transactions are expected to grow expon
MARKET WATCH NPL - The Italian Scenario Flash Update November 2017 NPL transactions are expected to reach the 101 Bn € by the end of the year - Bn €

Few servicers will manage the largest deals in the NPL market

Sources: Banca IFIS NPL Market Database – Press releases and news

Sources: Banca IFIS NPL Market Database – Press releases and news * From Oct’17 “Italian Recovery Fund”

Large Deals

2,6

Size – Bn €

Servicers

13,0

Quaestio – Cerved (Juliet)

8,0

DoBank

5,1

To be defined

Atlante II *

58,9 2,5

MPS

101,5 19,1

17,3

5,9

Caricesena; Carim; Carismi

8,9 17,0

13,2

8,5

2015 Primary Mkt

17,0

37,5

2016 Secondary Mkt

2017 Est Primary Mkt Est

2,7

Quaestio

Nuova Banca Etruria; Nuova Banche Marche; Nuova CariChieti

2,2

Banche venete

10,2

REV Gestione Crediti

9,0

2018 Pipeline Secondary Mkt Est

SGA

Highlights o

NPL Transactions are expected to grow exponentially in the last part of the year reaching the massive amount of 101 Bn €

o

Some deals previously planned on 2017 should be postponed to 2018

o

The 2017 secondary market expected to close at 5 Bn € equal to 5% of expected volumes

o

By the end of the year following large deals are expected to close: MPS 26,1 Bn € - Banche venete 10 Bn €

o

Along with closing of 2017 transactions, banks are planning the 2018 disposals (currently 17 Bn €)

To be defined 17,7

Unicredit (Fino)

The increasing disposal trend starts to have a positive impact on the net balance between new and closed bad loans positions - K Positions Sources: Banca d’Italia

106 29

53

102

116

54

49

54

68

69 15 -31

-40 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Highlights o

The 2017 shows a positive trend on the closed bad loans positions thanks to the strong effort in the management and disposal of NPLs • The Q1 2017 net balance is the lowest since 2007 • The Q2 2017 net balance is negative

General statement

This publication is edited by Banca IFIS. The information contained herein, obtained from sources believed to be reliable by Banca IFIS, are not necessarily complete, and their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This publication is provided merely for purposes of illustration and information and does not in any way represent financial and investment advice. MARKET WATCH NPL // Flash Update November 2017

2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017