mns.com Manhattan New Dev. Market Report 2014 3rd Quarter

Manhattan New Dev. Market Report 2014 3rd Quarter mns.com

Manhattan New Development Report 3Q14

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

TABLE OF CONTENTS 03 Introduction 04 Market Snapshot 09 Neighborhood Price Trends 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Battery Park City Chelsea East Village Financial District Gramercy Park Greenwich Village Harlem Lower East Side Midtown East Midtown West Murray Hill SoHo TriBeCa Upper East Side Upper West Side

24 The Report Explained

page 2 Gramercy Park 212.475.9000

115 East 23rd Street, New York, NY 10010

Williamsburg 718.222.1545

165 Bedford Avenue, Brooklyn, NY 11211


40 North 6th Street, Brooklyn, NY 11249

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INTRODUCTION MNS is proud to present the Third Quarter 2014 edition of our New Development Market Report.

New Development Sales data, defined as such “Arms-Length” first offering transactions where the seller is considered a “Sponsor”, was compiled from the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) for sponsor sales that traded during the Third Quarter of 2014 (07/01/14 – 09/30/14). All data summarized is on a median basis.







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MARKET SNAPSHOT Market Snapshot Year-Over-Year Median PPSF

34.7%

Quarter-Over-Quarter Median PPSF

17.6%

Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price

52.2%

Quarter-Over-Quarter Median Sales Price

4.8%

Manhattan New Development Sponsor Sales

25.5% from last quarter

Neighborhood with the Most New Dev Sales

Upper East Side - 24% of Manhattan New Dev Sales Total New Development Sales Volume

19.3% to $884 Million from $1.1 Billion in 2Q14

Largest Quarterly Up-Swing

Largest Quarterly Down-Swing

PPSF $1,851/SF from $1,128/SF Sales Price $1,665,000 from $1,590,513

PPSF $2,769 from $3,631 Sales Price $2,999,419 from $6,978,513

Murray Hill

Midtown West

Highest New Development Sale

157 West 57th St – Apt# 63A - $32,571,705 Highest New Development Sale PPSF

15 Central Park West – Apt# 33A – $9,662 PPSF Market Summary Sponsor sales of New Development condominiums decreased 25.53% since last quarter. Median Price per Square Foot increased a total of 17.6% from $1,400 to $1,645 since 2Q14. Similarly, Median Sales Pricing rose 4.8% across the entire borough from $1,550,000 to $1,625,109. Excluding Harlem sales data, the Median Price per Square Foot was $1,738 and the Median Sales Price was $1,877,100. This quarter 248 sponsor units were sold in all of Manhattan. This is a 25.33% decrease in sales compared to 2Q14, down from 333 sales across the borough. Total sales volume fell down 19.35%, from $1,096,287,464 last quarter to $884,186,077 this quarter. The Upper East Side, the Upper West Side and Harlem again had the highest number of sales as these neighborhoods continue to see the greatest amount of New Development condominium activity in Manhattan. Contrary to this the Lower East Side, TriBeCa, and Battery Park City had no sponsor sales at all this quarter. This mimics last month’s activity when these neighborhoods had minimal sales inventory. The most dramatic shift in activity this quarter took place in the Financial District as sales plummeted by 38 units after experiencing a spike last quarter.







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MARKET SNAPSHOT Market Up-Swings Murray Hill had the highest increase in Pricing per Square Foot percentage since last quarter, increasing 64.1% from $1,128 to $1,851. Alongside this, Sales Price percentage jumped 4.7%, going from $1,590,513 to $1,665,000. This rise was result of both a low sample size for this neighborhood and also higher priced luxury units being sold this quarter. These transactions include sales of units at Twenty9th Park Madison at 39 East 29th Street and Sky House at 11 East 29th Street. Market Down-Swings Midtown West had the largest negative shift in Price per Square Foot percentage this quarter falling 23.8% from $3,631 to $2,769. Sales Price percentage decreased 57% from $6,978,513 to $2,999,419. This appears to be a normalization of the condo market in Midtown West following the four quarter increase starting in 3Q13. The following neighborhoods experienced decreases in Median Sales Pricing since last quarter: Harlem, Midtown West, Chelsea, and Greenwich Village. Inventory Analysis The highest number of New Development Sponsor unit sales took place in the Upper East Side at 24% of total borough sales, a 7% increase from last quarter. This was due to an influx of units that closed at 200 East 79th Street. In 2Q14 this distinction belonged to Harlem, however total unit sales dropped to 28 units in the neighborhood this quarter, approximately half of last quarter. All unit types, with the exception of studios, saw a decrease in inventory compared to last month. The greatest number of sales among the unit categories was seen in Three Bedroom Upper East Side units at 45 units sold. Tracking: Neighborhoods where the majority of each unit type was sold in 3Q14

24%

Studios Harlem & Chelsea

16%

One Bedrooms Chelsea & Financial District

17%

Two Bedrooms Upper West Side, Upper East Side & Gramercy Park

40%

1,500 + SF Upper East Side







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Up pe

Gramercy Park 212.475.9000






NA

NA

NA

$

$

$

$

$

1,665,000

1,364,545

$

$

4,700,000

3,920,262

2,999,419

2,275,000

1,618,472

$

1,502,637

$

$

$

2,100,000

1,480,000

778,085

$

539,672

Ha rle m rW e s Up tS ide pe rE as tS M ide idt ow nW M es idt t ow nE as M t ur ray Hi ll Ch els Gr ea am erc Gr yP ee ark nw ich Vil lag Ea e st Vil lag e Lo So we Ho rE as tS ide Tri Fin Be an Ca tia l Di Ba str tte ict ry Pa rk Ci ty pe

Up

NA

NA

NA

$

693

2,174 $

1,623

1,204

2,769

$

2,381

$

1,851

1,661 $

$

1,270

2,010

$

$

$

$

1,625

$

1,689

$


MARKET SNAPSHOT 3Q14 Median Price per Square Foot (PPSF) By Neighborhood

2Q14 Median Sales Price By Neighborhood

page 6

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Up pe r

Gramercy Park 212.475.9000






0

0

0

2

3

5

7

18

16

16

26

26

28 42 59

Ha rle m rW e st Up Sid pe e rE as tS M ide idt ow nW M es idt t ow nE as M t ur ray Hi ll Ch els Gr ea am erc Gr y ee Pa nw rk ich Vil lag Ea e st Vil lag e Lo So we Ho rE as tS ide Tri Fin Be an Ca tia l Di Ba str tte ict ry Pa rk Ci ty pe

Up

0%

0%

0%

7.26%

2.02%

2.82%

6.45%

0.81%

1.21%

6.45%

10.48%

10.48%

16.94%

11.29%

23.79%


MARKET SNAPSHOT 2Q14 % Of Total Sponsor Sales - Borough-Wide

Number of Units Sold in 2Q14

page 7

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MANHATTAN 2Q14 Unit Mix Of New Development Sales

Median PPSF

$1,645

Studios 15% 1 Bedrooms 26% 2 Bedrooms 14% 3 Bedrooms 45%

(Excluding Harlem Median PPSF is $1,738) Median Sales Price

$1,625,109

(Excluding Harlem Median Sales Price is $1,877,100

Manhattan Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$2,500,000

$1,700 $1,600 $1,500

$1,975,000

$1,400 $1,300

$1,450,000

$1,200 $1,100

$925,000

$1,000 $900

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$400,000

Price

PPSF







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BATTERY PARK CITY Battery Park City PPSF By Unit Size (N/A)

% Of Sales Within Battery Park City

Studios N/A 1 Bedrooms N/A 2 Bedrooms N/A 1500+ SF N/A


Battery Park City Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$2,300

$7,000,000

$1,980

$5,250,000

$1,660 $3,500,000 $1,340 $1,750,000

$1,020

$700

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$0

Price







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CHELSEA Chelsea PPSF By Unit Size ($1,270/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Chelsea

Studios $1,233 1 Bedrooms $1,275 2 Bedrooms $1,023 1500+ SF $2,081

Studios 35% 1 Bedrooms 38% 2 Bedrooms 4% 1500+ SF 23%

Chelsea Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$2,100

$4,000,000

$1,600

$3,175,000

$1,100

$2,350,000

$600

$1,525,000

$100

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$700,000

Price







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EAST VILLAGE East Village PPSF By Unit Size ($1,661/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within East Village



East Village Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$3,500

$5,000,000

$3,017

$4,080,000

$2,533 $3,160,000 $2,050 $2,240,000 $1,567 $1,320,000

$1,083 $600

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$400,000

Price







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FINANCIAL DISTRICT Financial District PPSF By Unit Size ($1,204/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Financial District



Financial District Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$1,500,000

$1,400

$1,300,000

$1,200

$1,100,000 $1,000 $900,000 $800

$600

$700,000

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$500,000

Price







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GRAMERCY PARK Gramercy Park PPSF By Unit Size ($1,623/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Gramercy Park



Gramercy Park Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$5,000

$8,000,000

$4,286 $6,000,000

$3,571 $2,857

$4,000,000 $2,143 $1,429

$2,000,000

$714 $0

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$0

Price







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GREENWICH VILLAGE Greenwich Village PPSF By Unit Size ($2,174/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Greenwich Village

Studios N/A 1 Bedrooms $2,643 2 Bedrooms $1,703 1500+ SF $2,334

Studios N/A 1 Bedrooms 57% 2 Bedrooms 14% 1500+ SF 29%

Greenwich Village Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$3,500

$8,000,000 $7,035,714

$2,875

$6,071,429 $5,107,143

$2,250 $4,142,857 $3,178,571

$1,625

$2,214,286 $1,000

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$1,250,000

Price







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HARLEM Harlem PPSF By Unit Size ($693/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Harlem

Studios $618 1 Bedrooms $730 2 Bedrooms $737 1500+ SF $930


Harlem Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$800

$750,000

$700

$662,500

$600 $575,000 $500 $487,500

$400

$300

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$400,000

Price







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LOWER EAST SIDE Lower East Side PPSF By Unit Size (N/A)

% Of Sales Within Lower East Side



Lower East Side Quarterly Tracking Median Price

Median PPSF

$1,500

$2,000,000

$1,400

$1,812,500 $1,625,000

$1,300

$1,437,500

$1,200

$1,250,000 $1,100

$1,062,500

$1,000

$875,000

$900 $800

$687,500 3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$500,000

Price







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MIDTOWN EAST Midtown East PPSF By Unit Size ($1,625/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Midtown East



Midtown East Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$1,700

$2,500,000

$1,600

$2,250,000

$1,500

$2,000,000

$1,400

$1,750,000

$1,300

$1,500,000

$1,200

$1,250,000

$1,100

$1,000,000

$1,000

$750,000

$900

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$500,000

Price







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MIDTOWN WEST Midtown West PPSF By Unit Size ($2,769/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Midtown West



Midtown West Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$3,700

$7,000,000

$3,450 $3,200 $2,950

$5,275,000

$2,700 $2,450 $2,200

$3,550,000

$1,950 $1,700 $1,825,000

$1,450 $1,200 $950 $700

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$100,000

Price







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MURRAY HILL Murray Hill PPSF By Unit Size ($1,851/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Murray Hill

Studios N/A 1 Bedrooms $1,973 2 Bedrooms $1,729 1500+ SF N/A

Studios N/A 1 Bedrooms 50% 2 Bedrooms 50% 1500+ SF N/A

Murray Hill Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$1,900

$3,000,000

$1,700 $2,275,000 $1,500 $1,300

$1,550,000

$1,100 $825,000 $900 $700

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$100,000

Price







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SOHO SoHo PPSF By Unit Size ($2,010/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within SoHo

Studios $2,010 1 Bedrooms N/A 2 Bedrooms N/A 1500+ SF $2,175

Studios 20% 1 Bedrooms N/A 2 Bedrooms N/A 1500+ SF 80%

SoHo Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$4,000

$10,000,000

$3,250

$7,750,000

$2,500

$5,500,000

$1,750

$3,250,000

$1,000

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$1,000,000

Price







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TRIBECA TriBeCa PPSF By Unit Size (N/A)

% Of Sales Within TriBeCa



TriBeCa Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$1,900

$6,000,000

$1,675

$4,562,500

$1,450

$3,125,000

$1,225

$1,687,500

$1,000

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$250,000

Price







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UPPER EAST SIDE Upper East Side PPSF By Unit Size ($2,381/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Upper East Side



Upper East Side Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

$2,400 $2,300 $2,200 $2,100 $2,000 $1,900 $1,800 $1,700 $1,600 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900

Median Price

$4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

PPSF

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$500,000

Price







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UPPER WEST SIDE Upper West Side PPSF By Unit Size ($1,689/SF Median)

% Of Sales Within Upper West Side



Upper West Side Quarterly Tracking Median PPSF

Median Price

$1,700

$4,000,000

$1,475

$3,125,000

$1,250

$2,250,000

$1,025

$1,375,000

$800

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

$500,000

PPSF







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THE REPORT EXPLAINED Included in this research are walk-up and elevator new development condominium buildings, as well as new conversion condominiums if the sales were applicable sponsor transactions. Excluded from the report are all cooperative sales.

Unit types such as studios, one-bedrooms, and two-bedroom units are grouped by square footage ranges. Studios are under 700 square feet, one-bedrooms are under 900 square feet, and two-bedrooms are under 1,450 square feet. Added to the report is the over-sized unit type that ranges from 1,500 square feet to 7,000 square feet. Presented with a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparison, both city-wide and by neighborhood, MNS New Development ReportTM tracks the market trends throughout Manhattan and Brooklyn. MNS offers a unique insight into the new development market by tracking stalled construction sites on a quarterly basis, a great indicator of where development in general is moving. MNS is your source to find neighborhood price per square foot analysis, average sale prices, unit type sales trends, overall price movement, neighborhood inventory comparisons, and absorption rates.

Can’t find what you’re looking for? Ask MNS for more information at www.mns.com. Contact Us Now: 212.475.9000 Note: All market data is collected and compiled by MNS’ marketing department. The information presented here is intended for instructive purposes only and has been gathered from sources deemed reliable, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. If you would like to republish this report on the web, please be sure to source it as the “Manhattan New Development Report” with a link back to its original location http://www.mns.com/manhattan_new_dev_report







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