Jun 26, 2017 - Riemann Wool Platform- Forward trades past week. Maturity month Type. Price. Trade weight. August 2017. 1
Sale Week 51: Fri 23rd June 2017
Offering—Aust. only
Eastern Market Indicator (EMI)
Currency movements
Bales offered
22,298
AUD:USD
0.7558
- 0.76 %
AUD
1533 ac/kg
+ 27 ac/kg
+ 1.79%
Passed-In %
5.4 %
AUD:CNY
5.1631
- 0.22 %
USD
1159 usc/kg
+ 12 usc/kg
+ 1.02%
Bales Sold
21,104
AUD:EUR
0.6763
- 0.38 %
CNY
79.15 ¥/kg
+ 1.22 ¥/kg
+ 1.57%
Season Sold
1,676,251
RBA close rates Thurs 22nd June 2017
EUR
10.37 €/kg
+ 0.15 €/kg
+ 1.40%
AWEX Auction Micron Price Guides.
Monthly EMI tracking end MAY 2017
1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350
AUD
Sales were held Wed 21st & Thurs 22nd June.
MPG
Sydney
Melbourne
USD
17mic
2232 +35
2212n +24
Linear (AUD) Linear (USD)
18mic
2165 +42
2149 +39
19mic
1892 +22
1922 +36
NO SALE
20mic
1672 +34
1669 +33
IN WEST
21mic
1583 +29
1580 +31
22mic
1518n +33
1516 +38
23mic
-
1445n +8
24mic
-
-
-
25mic
-
-
-
26mic
1109n =
1129n +29
28mic
769
769n +4
30mic
548
543n +10
32mic
373n
391n =
MCard
1184n +3
1188n +21
+2
Fremantle
-
-
Scheduled Australian Wool Auction Sales Riemann Wool Platform- Forward trades past week Maturity month August 2017 August 2017 September 2017 December 2017
Type 19.0 micron 21.0 micron 21.0 micron 21.0 micron
Price Trade weight 1850 22,500 1500 15,000 1438 / 1450 47,000 1425 7,000 Total kgs 91,500 kgs
Sale week
2017/18
2016/17
commencing
forecast
actual
36,993 bales
22,108 bales
39,431 bales
39,152 bales
35,543 bales
40,935 bales
Week 52 26/06/2017
Week 01 03/07/2017
Week 02 10/07/2017
AWI Commentary
Southern Aurora Wool forwards report
Wool auctions in Australia continued this week to advance price levels strongly. The Merino sector wools were once again the most sought after with good gains of 1.5 to 2% being commonplace. Crossbreds and cardings were not neglected by any means, as those wools placed a further 5 to 15ac upon their previous values.
An interesting week on the forwards. Volume was moderate in a week where unprecedented Spring levels where paid. Growers had to accept discounts to the spot market of 50 to 100 cents to achieve hedging levels of 1500 in August and 1450 in September. Although 3% and 6% discount seems on the face of it to be steep, but in light of the current volatility, record high prices and historical data in makes more sense.
The AWEX EMI (eastern market indicator) increased 27ac/clean kg or 1.8% for the week to bring the closing level to 1533ac/clean kg. When measured in USD, the EMI rose 12usc to be 1159usc/clean kg. In both AUD and USD terms the market looks like seeing the season out at levels of almost 20% higher than 12 months ago.
AWEX 21.0 MPG Monthly Data YEAR
2010
AUG
SEPT
PEAK
AVERAGE
PEAK
AVERAGE
910
902
896
889
The extremely low supply of just over 20,000 bales nationwide 2011 1386 1349 1367 1331 obviously played a significant factor in the market strengthening. In 2012 1152 1088 1089 1060 fact, AWEX are reporting that the volume of Merino fleece offered this past week was the lowest for more than 8 years. Just the two 2013 1154 1095 1222 1183 eastern centres operated as Fremantle opted out due to lack of 2014 1142 1116 1136 1124 wool, which is normal for this time of the season. Some wool selling brokers are also reporting that It is apparent that many wool 2015 1415 1351 1335 1291 growers are opting to hold their clips and then sell in the new fi2016 1470 1460 1470 1423 nancial year. This is leading to sales being loaded for the first 2 sales in July, which more often than not, leads to buyers being able Not unexpectedly the market falls into the spring on higher supply in to be act more selectively. most years. What is welcomed from these figures is that currently AuThe weakening Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) gust and September hedging levels are at or exceeding historical auction peaks. In dollar terms for 21.0 micron fleece this is over $1800 per was also a positive influence as rates went 0.8% in favour of overbale. Next week we expect forward prices to contract a little ahead of seas buyers. Contrary to the rising market levels and favourable currency, buyers and exporters reported a widespread lack of fresh the spot auction. Exporters are still looking for some off shore demand signals as most mills continue a wait and see approach. business being achieved. The purchasing at auction was therefore Anticipated levels next week being dominated by those buyers looking to close out any outJuly 19.0 1820 to 1850 21.0 1500 to 1540 standing forward positions. Stocktaking by exporters at these levels August 19.0 1780 to 1830 21.0 1450 to 1490 was reported being at a zero interest level. September 19.0 1710 to 1750 21.0 1430 to 1460 October 19.0 1680 to 1710 21.0 1400 to 1430 The indent buying orders from China were initially aggressive on Merino fleece, but on the final day, particularly in Melbourne, the orders seemed to dry up almost instantaneously. This pull back put a shudder through the auction room, and towards the close, most buyers were reporting a market at 15 to 20 lower on the last sections of the sale day. Sydney was far stronger throughout on this final day and closed at levels 15 to 20 higher but that market had traded at least 15-20 cents below Melbourne on the first day of trade, so market alignment was more of the story arising from the opposing market results. Hidden amongst the general 30 to 40ac gains in the Merino sector, some differing results were achieved. The small offering of the better types destined for Europe were upwards of 65 to 70ac dearer, with 16.5 to 18 micron sale lots taking most advantage of the stronger demand. Conversely, those wools with 1.5 to 3 vm and 16.5 to 18 micron headed downward and were 15 to 20ac cheaper by the close of selling for the series. Next week sees 37,000 bales to go to auction which should see this seasons’ sold at auction figure go through the 1.7million bale mark. Some purchasing hesitancy may occur as volumes in the next three weeks are substantially above the offering of the past month or so. With buying intent so sporadic recently , it seems certain an unchanged market is the least likely result.
AUD Commentary - SAW The Australian Dollar has been under pressure most of this week, and today Friday, is at .7538, and on the week’s low, after starting Monday, at the week’s high of .7625. We mentioned last week, that with all the good news received (especially employment) the Aussie should have powered higher, and its inability to do this was a real concern and was a reflection of the deeper underlying issues of the economy, namely heavy falls in key commodity markets, almost stagnant wages growth, and very high personal debt levels. Technical Analysis - The Aussie’s inability to break higher through short term resistance even on a large amount of positive fundamental news may hint at significant underlying weakness, opening the door for a reversal lower. An actionable setup is absent for now however, and the Aussie still remains caught in a large side-ways trading pattern. Overhead Chart Resistance is found at .7655, then .7698, while support is found .7522, then .7482.
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