Nov 4, 2015 - Treasury Secretary Karen Dynan is due to give a webinar on the next .... cover Tuesday despite the API inv
A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl
Morning Briefing November 4th 2015 There's a packed data calendar for Europe and the US today. We start in Germany, with the ILO employment change due at 0700 GMT and Oct unemployment data at 0855 GMT. There's also Oct flash HICP data due today
The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 3,000 to 262,000 in the October 24 week after a 3,000 increase in the previous week.
At 1000 GMT, the EMU's surveys of Oct business and consumer sentiment, economic sentiment and business climate are due.
Also at the same time we get advance estimate of Q3 GDP data. Third quarter GDP is expected to rise 1.5% for the advance estimate after the 3.9% rate of increase in the previous quarter. Slower growth is seen for all of the GDP components, particularly non-residential fixed investment and PCE, while there should be a larger lag from net exports.
Then it's over to the US, where CBI Distributive Trades are due at 1100 GMT followed by weekly jobless claims data for the week of Oct. 24, at 1230 GMT.
A number of key speakers also due today. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart is due to make opening remarks at a workforce development panel in Washington at 1310 GMT.
In Spain, flash HICP and retail sales data are due at 0800 GMT.
Global Economic Trading Calendar
At 1500 GMT, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio is due to make a speech on stress testing in London. Then at 1700 GMT US Assistant Treasury Secretary Karen Dynan is due to give a webinar on the next GDP estimate. Then at 1715 Bundesbank Vice President Claudia Buch makes a speech on capital flight, in Eichstaett Germany followed by Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret's speech in London on the banking system post crisis at 1915 GMT.
Markets FOREX: A morning of listless trading in the Asia-Pacific today, largely driven by risk appetite, as regional equities markets climbed. There were few major economic data releases this morning; Australia's trade and retail sales numbers had little impact on the market but the general mood was mild risk-on. Aussie-dollar was last at $0.7212, in a $0.7179 to $0.7224 range so far and up from the US close of $0.7186. Dollar-yen traded a Y121.04 to Y121.38 range this morning and last trades in midrange, at Y121.19 vs the previous close of Y121.07. Euro-dollar was last at $1.0951 after a $1.0938 to $1.0968 range today and slightly lower than $1.0964 last night. US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading with a bid tone supported by surging regional equity markets. Japanese stocks are trading sharply higher after the largest IPO of 2015 globally, Japan Post surged on its trading debut, which saw the Nikkei power more than 2.20% higher. Also supporting the market has been a sharp rally in Chinese equities, after the PBOC announced that the equity trading link between Shenzhen and Hong Kong will start trading this year, seeing the H-Shares Index rally some 3.93%, the Hang Seng add some 3.20%, while the Shanghai Composite is some 2.58% higher. However other reports suggest the exact timing of when the link will commence is still unclear. Growth friendly comments from President Xi overnight has also lent support to Chinese equity prices.
Currently the Dec'15 e-mini S&P futures are trading up 3.25 points at 2106.25, the Dec'15 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading up 12.00 points at 4,724.00, while the Dec'15 e-mini Dow futures are trading up 34 points at 17,875. US STOCKS: US stocks remain buoyant in the final hour of trading Tuesday. The DJIA is up 0.74% at 17,960, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.52% at 5,154 and the S&P 500 up 0.46% at 2,114. The earlier high of 17,977.85 in the DJIA was the highest level seen since July 21 and the Nasdaq's 5,163.470 high was the highest seen since August 5. The S&P 500 topped out at 2,116.48 earlier, the highest level since July 22. This is set to be the first close over 2,100 since August 17. The market eyes a return to the life-time high of 2,134.72, seen May 20. US TSYS: Treasuries are trading slightly offered as 'risk-on' trade grips equity markets in Asia although US equity futures are only slightly higher. Currently cash 10's are 0.18bp cheaper at 2.2123% with some $3.26 bln changing hands. Sources flows of note have seen more Asian bank buying and Asian real-money buying of 10's, while other Asian real-money accounts have been seen selling 10's. Sources see a 2.19%/2.24% range for 10's until the slew of Fedspeak starts in the US session. Tenyear futures are 1-tick lower than the close on volumes of 40.8k JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have had a stellar morning session, more than recouping Monday's heavy losses as the Japan Post trading debut have given the market a heavy bid.
Japan Post Holdings and Banking IPO's traded some 15% higher that their original IPO prices, while the Insurance arm was up 50% from its IPO price at one stage. The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 2.42% or 451.68 points at 19,134.92, while the Topix is up 1.85% or 28.23 points at 1,555.20. PRECIOUS METALS: The complex remains weighed down by last week's FOMC policy statement and growing anticipation of a rate rise by the Fed in December but Far Eastern investors have availed themselves of the lower prices on offer as they arrived this morning and commenced bargain hunting. All metals have advanced in an orderly manner throughout the first half of the day, gold and platinum seeing reasonable volumes transacting but silver and palladium well below average. The Shanghai Composite Index and Nikkei have had solid mornings, up 2.58% & 2.42% respectively. US employment data later in the week remains the key signpost. Today's Yuan Central Parity rate was set at 6.3343 by the PBoC (vs 6.3310 yesterday). OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Dec'15 delivery last down just $0.01 at $47.89 per barrel, after a $47.62 to $47.94 range in Asia today, on slightly better volume than seen in recent weeks in Asia. Some talk of another series of clashes in Libya has that country's exports at the forefront again, prompting short cover Tuesday despite the API inventory data seeing another rise in stockpiles, matching analysts’ expectations for the DOE/EIA data Wednesday. Still, any rally towards $50 will be seen as a selling opportunity in a market that has been constantly on the back foot since mid-2014.
Technical Analysis BUND: (Z15) Bears Target Close Below 155.71
*RES 4: 158.24 High Oct 29 *RES 3: 157.79 Alternating daily support/resistance *RES 2: 157.56 High Oct 30 *RES 1: 157.07 High Nov 3 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 156.55 *SUP 1: 156.37 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 152.75-158.60 *SUP 2: 156.13 Rising daily channel base *SUP 3: 155.72 55-DMA *SUP 4: 155.71 Monthly low Oct 20 *COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the 155.71156.13 region where the channel base and 55-DMA are located. Bears now look for a close below the 55-DMA to shift focus to the next layers of support 154.48-155.13 where the 100-DMA (154.48) is noted. Daily studies remain well placed for further downside with bulls now needing a close above 157.07 to ease pressure on the channel base. Above 157.56 is needed to shift focus back to the 158.60 Oct high.
EUROSTOXX: 3362.5 & 200-DMA Levels Remain Key *RES 4: 3490.2 Bollinger band top *RES 3: 3484.4 200-DMA *RES 2: 3479.4 High Aug 19 *RES 1: 3450.6 High Oct 23 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3442.7 *SUP 1: 3377.4 100-DMA *SUP 2: 3374.3 Low Oct 23 *SUP 3: 3362.5 High Oct 22 now support *SUP 4: 3326.9 High Sept 9 now support *COMMENTARY: Recent dips have found support ahead of the 100-DMA with the 3362.5 support just below seen as key. Bears look for a close below 3362.5 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA, an easing of bullish pressure and a shift in focus back to 3294.4.5-3326.9 where the 21-DMA is located. The 200-DMA remains key resistance with bulls needing a close above to reconfirm a bullish bias and target 3686.63715.
Eurex Futures Market Close
Contact MNI: Clive Tillbrook – European Managing Editor + 44 207 862 7400,
[email protected] MNI Sales -
[email protected],
[email protected],
[email protected]
Published by Eurex Frankfurt AG Mergenthalerallee 61 65760 Frankfurt / Main Germany
Eurex Zürich AG Selnaustrasse 30 8021 Zurich Switzerland
www.eurexchange.com ARBN Number Eurex Frankfurt AG ARBN 100 999 764
© Eurex, January 2008-2010
Deutsche Börse AG (DBAG), Clearstream Banking AG (Clearstream), Eurex Frankfurt AG, Eurex Clearing AG (Eurex Clearing) as well as Eurex Bonds GmbH (Eurex Bonds) and Eurex Repo GmbH (Eurex Repo) are corporate entities and are registered under German law. Eurex Zürich AG is a corporate entity and is registered under Swiss law. Clearstream Banking S.A. is a corporate entity and is registered under Luxembourg law. U.S. Exchange Holdings, Inc. and International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (ISE) are corporate entities and are registered under U.S. American law. Eurex Frankfurt AG (Eurex) is the administrating and operating institution of Eurex Deutschland. Eurex Deutschland and Eurex Zürich AG are in the following referred to as the “Eurex Exchanges”. All intellectual property, proprietary and other rights and interests in this publication and the subject matter hereof (other than certain trademarks and service marks listed below) are owned by DBAG and its affiliates and subsidiaries including, without limitation, all patent, registered design, copyright, trademark and service mark rights. While reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this publication to provide details that are accurate and not misleading at the time of publication DBAG, Clearstream, Eurex, Eurex Clearing, Eurex Bonds, Eurex Repo as well as the Eurex Exchanges and their respective servants and agents (a) do not make any representations or warranties regarding the information contained herein, whether express or implied, including without limitation any implied warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty with respect to the accuracy, correctness, quality, completeness or timeliness of such information, and (b) shall not be responsible or liable for any third party’s use of any information contained herein under any circumstances, including, without limitation, in connection with actual trading or otherwise or for any errors or omissions contained in this publication. This publication is published for information purposes only and shall not constitute investment advice respectively does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any investment or to engage in any other transaction. This publication is not intended for solicitation purposes but only for use as general information. All descriptions, examples and calculations contained in this publication are for illustrative purposes only. Eurex and Eurex Clearing offer services directly to members of the Eurex exchanges respectively to clearing members of Eurex Clearing. Those who desire to trade any products available on the Eurex market or who desire to offer and sell any such products to others or who desire to possess a clearing license of Eurex Clearing in order to participate in the clearing process provided by Eurex Clearing, should consider legal and regulatory requirements of those jurisdictions relevant to them, as well as the risks associated with such products, before doing so. ®
®
Eurex derivatives are currently not available for offer, sale or trading in the United States or by United States persons (other than EURO STOXX 50 Index Futures, EURO STOXX 50 ex Financials Index Futures, EURO STOXX® Select Dividend 30 Index Futures, EURO STOXX® Index Futures, EURO STOXX® Large/Mid/Small Index Futures, STOXX® Europe 50 Index Futures, STOXX® Europe 600 Index Futures, STOXX® Europe 600 Banks/Industrial Goods & Services/Insurance/Media/Travel & Leisure/Utilities Futures, STOXX® Europe Large/Mid/Small 200 Index Futures, Dow Jones Global Titans 50 IndexSM ® ® Futures (EUR & USD), DAX /MDAX®/TecDAX® Futures, SMIM Futures, SLI Swiss Leader Index® Futures, MSCI World/Europe/ Europe Value/Europe Growth/Emerging Markets/Emerging Markets Latin America/Emerging Markets EMEA/Emerging Markets Asia/China Free/India/Japan/Malaysia/South Africa/Thailand/AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index Futures, TA-25 Index Futures, Daily Futures on TAIEX VFutures, VSTOXX® Futures, Gold and Silver Futures as well as Eurex agriculture, property and interest rate derivatives). Trademarks and Service Marks Buxl®, DAX®, DivDAX®, eb.rexx®, Eurex®, Eurex Bonds®, Eurex Repo®, Eurex Strategy WizardSM, Euro GC Pooling®, FDAX®, FWB®, GC Pooling®,,GCPI®, MDAX®, ODAX®, SDAX®, TecDAX®, USD GC Pooling®, VDAX®, VDAX-NEW ® and Xetra® are registered trademarks of DBAG. All MSCI indexes are service marks and the exclusive property of MSCI Barra. ATX®, ATX® five, CECE® and RDX® are registered trademarks of Vienna Stock Exchange AG. IPD® UK Annual All Property Index is a registered trademark of Investment Property Databank Ltd. IPD and has been licensed for the use by Eurex for derivatives. SLI®, SMI® and SMIM® are registered trademarks of SIX Swiss Exchange AG. The STOXX® indexes, the data included therein and the trademarks used in the index names are the intellectual property of STOXX Limited and/or its licensors Eurex derivatives based on the STOXX® indexes are in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by STOXX and its licensors and neither STOXX nor its licensors shall have any liability with respect thereto. Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Titans 50 Index SM and Dow Jones Sector Titans IndexesSM are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All derivatives based on these indexes are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones & Company, Inc. Dow Jones & Company, Inc. does not make any representation regarding the advisability of trading or of investing in such products. Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM and any related sub-indexes are service marks of Bloomberg L.P. All references to London Gold and Silver Fixing prices are used with the permission of The London Gold Market Fixing Limited as well as The London Silver Market Fixing Limited, which for the avoidance of doubt has no involvement with and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for the underlying product to which the Fixing prices may be referenced.PCS® and Property Claim Services® are registered trademarks of ISO Services, Inc. Korea Exchange, KRX, KOSPI and KOSPI 200 are registered trademarks of Korea Exchange Inc. Taiwan Futures Exchange and TAIFEX are registered trademarks of Taiwan Futures Exchange Corporation. Taiwan Stock Exchange, TWSE and TAIEX are the registered trademarks of Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation BSE and SENSEX are trademarks/service marks of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and all rights accruing from the same, statutory or otherwise, wholly vest with BSE. Any violation of the above would constitute an offence under the laws of India and international treaties governing the same. The names of other companies and third party products may be trademarks or service marks of their respective owners.
