May 18, 2016 - off that low to reach a fresh morning high of Y109.39. ... session trading lower as the better- ... *SUP
A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl
Morning Briefing May 18th 2016 There is only limited data on the calendar Wednesday, although the releases scheduled are prime data points.
UK data due at 0830GMT includes the labour force survey, with the unemployment data and the latest earnings numbers.
The European calendar gets underway at 0715GMT, when the Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen addresses the regional network, in Stavanger.
At the same time, the Bank of England will publish the May Agents' Summary of
At 0800GMT, ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau outlines the annual "Letter to the President" at a press conference on the economic situation in France and the eurozone, in Paris.
Back on the Continent, at 0900GMT, the final April HICP inflation data will cross the wire.
Business Conditions.
In the UK, at 1030GMT, the State Opening of Parliament gets underway, with the Queen's Speech set to outline the Government's legislative programme for the coming year.
Global Economic Trading Calendar
Across the Atlantic, the US MBA weekly applications index will be published at 1130GMT. At 1230GMT, the Canadian international securities transaction data will cross the wires. The Atlanta Fed inflation index will be released at 1400GMT, with the DOE weekly crude oil stocks due at 1430GMT. The minutes of the Fed's April meeting are due at 1800GMT. At 1900GMT, BOE Chief Economist Andy Haldane speaks in London. However, as the EU referendum purdah.
Markets FOREX: The US dollar marked broad gains this morning in the AsiaPacific, particularly against the yen, following better-than-expected Japanese GDP data out early in the session. Elsewhere, regional stocks were mixed -- the Japanese index gaining while Chinese stocks were in the red. Dollar-yen gave up early gains to Y108.72 but bounced again off that low to reach a fresh morning high of Y109.39. It last trades at Y109.17. Aussie-dollar was last at $0.7290, toward the low end of today's $0.7285 to $0.7332 range and down from last night's $0.7325 close. Euro-dollar was also lower at $1.1291 compared with $1.1313 overnight. It traded a $1.1284 to $1.1316 range today. US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly higher after markets sold-off on Tuesday due to a higher than expected inflation print raising the odds of a June hike, with comments from Fed officials supporting a June hike also weighing in on stocks. This morning it appears that the market is following the Nikkei's lead which is some 0.61% higher at lunch. Currently the Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading up 2.25 points at 2,045.75, the Jun'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading up 6.25 points at 4,325.75, while the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading up 16 points at 17,505. US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks Tuesday continued the yo-yo trend of recent sessions (Friday down/Monday up/Tuesday down) by reversing
Monday's gains and then some. The DJIA closed down 181 pts or 1.02% at 17,529.98, the Nasdaq Composite closed down 60 pts or 1.25% at 4,715.733 and the S&P 500 closed down 19 pts or 0.94% at 2,047.21. The S&P 500 posted a 2016 high of 2,111.05 April 20 and then succumbed to profit-taking US TSY FUTURES: Treasury futures are attempting to recover from their post 3pm sell-off in early trade as the market attempts to disgust a massive session of corporate issuance on Wednesday. Ten-year futures slipped some 3-ticks post the 3pm close after Dell priced its monster $20 bln 6-part issue in the second largest deal YTD, with total issuance some $22.2 bln, while for the week some $29.47 bln has been issued so far. Of course with so much global debt trading at negative yields new issues are seeing huge demand, with the Dell deal some 4-times oversubscribed. Elsewhere it appears that the recent hawkish Fed speak is starting to gain attention from markets with the odds of a June hike moving to 12% up from 4% last week according to Bloomberg data, with headline CPI rising the most in 38-months. Though skeptics still see a Jun 15 hike as a low possibility due to the BREXIT vote on Jun 23. Indeed, these concerns were reflected in the latest BOA/ML fund survey, where some 27% of participants see the BREXIT vote as the biggest tail risk, while 71% see this as 'unlikely' or 'not at all likely'
JAPAN STOCKS: It’s been an interesting session for Japanese equities, with the market initially spending a majority of the morning session trading lower as the betterthan-expected Q3 GDP result questioned the need for more BOJ stimulus and a delay in the sales tax rise, while late session saw equities recover as the Yen was unable to hold on to its post-GDP gains. The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 0.61% or 100.75 points at 16,753.55, while the Topix is up 0.77% or 10.28 points at 1,346.13. GOLD: Spot gold last down $4.43 at $1274.51 per ounce, in a $1274.19 to $1282.15 range so far this morning in Asia, with solid volume in the futures as again the metal fails to sustain any sort of break above $1280, with producer selling yet to get properly set again Tuesday. Whilst global risks are on the horizon with the debate over Brexit and the upcoming US Federal election, there's still an overhang of selling from here to $1300 that's keeping the market in check. The upcoming FOMC meeting in mid-June will also begin to gain more attention with the risk of a rate hike looming. OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Jun'16 delivery last up $0.15 at $48.46 per barrel, after a $48.28 to $48.58 range in Asia today, on solid volume across the front two contracts as Jul'16 begins to match the Jun'16 volumes outright as it switches to spot this week. Tuesday's API data showed a fall in crude stockpiles which is expected to be matched in the DOE/EIA inventory data on Wednesday.
Technical Analysis BUND: (M16) Initial Support Confirms Significance *RES 4: 165.51 Low Feb 24 now resistance (continuation) *RES 3: 164.84 Bollinger band top *RES 2: 164.75 Low Feb 23 now resistance (continuation) *RES 1: 164.60 High Apr 11 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.95 *SUP 1: 163.42 Low May 6 *SUP 2: 163.12 High May 5 now support *SUP 3: 162.67 Low May 4 *SUP 4: 161.84 Low May 2 *COMMENTARY: Bears have been so far unable to capitalise on Thursday’s bearish key day reversal with M16 continuing to find support ahead of the 162.67-163.42 support region where 21 & 55-DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below 162.67 to end bullish hopes and shift focus to 161.46-84. Bulls need a close above 164.60 to reconfirm a bullish bias and above 164.75 to confirm focus on 165.51. O/B daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern for bulls.
EUROSTOXX: Capped Ahead Of Key DMAs *RES 4: 3067.61 Alternating daily support/resistance *RES 3: 3027.01 21-DMA *RES 2: 3013.75 55-DMA *RES 1: 2999.46 100-DMA *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 2938.09 *SUP 1: 2893.63 Low May 6 *SUP 2: 2860.32 Monthly Low Apr 7 *SUP 3: 2856.68 Bollinger band base *SUP 4: 2786.21 Low Feb 15 *COMMENTARY: Despite daily studies correcting from O/S levels, bulls have been unable to take out key DMAs 2999.463027.01 with bulls needing a close above 3067.61 to confirm a break higher targeting the 200-DMA (3156.09). While key DMAs cap bears retain the upper hand and pressure remains on the 2860.32-2896.63 supports. Bears need a close below 2860.32 to confirm overall focus on a retest of 20 16 lows (2672.73).
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