Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar

A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl

Morning Briefing October 28th 2015 A relatively busy day ahead today in continental Europe and the US culminating in the key Federal Open Market Committee's decision on policy at 1900 GMT today. The Fed's policymaking body is again expected to leave the federal funds rate near zero. That will set the stage for nailbiting anticipation of the FOMC's decision on Dec. 16 - the seventh anniversary of the zero lower bound for the overnight money market rate.

At the start of the European day, there is Sep import prices and the GFK consumer confidence releases due at 0700 GMT. At 0745 GMT, there's France's Sep housing starts and Oct consumer confidence due. Consumer confidence came in at 9.6 in the previous reading. Then in Italy, the Oct ISTAT consumer confidence and business survey is due at 0900 GMT. The ISTAT consumer confidence was at 112.7 previously while the business survey was at 106.2. Following that, at 0915 GMT, EMU ECB Executive Board member Peter

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Praet is due to participate in a panel discussing high debt levels and monetary policy, in Riga, Latvia. Later in the day, ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio is also due to give speech on macro prudential policy in Berlin at 1445 GMT The day's US releases start with the MBA Mortgage Index at 1100 GMT followed by the Sept advance trade goods at 1230 GMT. The US EIA crude oil stocks data are then due at 1430 GMT before the main event, which is the FOMC decision..

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FOREX: It's been a marginally busy morning so far in the Asia-Pacific although most major FX pairs have been in quite narrow ranges with the exception of the aussie. The market remains focused on key events this week, including the FOMC decision tonight and the BOJ's decision this Friday. The Australian dollar fell earlier following the release of disappointing CPI data and recoveries have remained shallow so far. Aussie-dollar was last at $0.7122, after a $0.7114 low today, and down from the overnight close of $0.7193. In other pairs, dollar-yen was last at Y120.38, in a Y120.25 to Y120.55 range this morning and down slightly from the US close of Y120.46. Euro-dollar was last at $1.1036, in a $1.1025 to $1.1052 range and down from the previous close of $1.1051. US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly higher on average volumes as the market awaits the FOMC decision later today. Today's Q3 earning releases include the likes of Walgreens, Go-pro, PayPal, Ferrari and Hershey. Currently the Dec'15 emini S&P futures are trading up 2.00 points at 2,062.50, the Dec'15 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading up 5.25 points at 4,637.50, while the Dec'15 e-mini Dow futures are trading up 5 points at 17,518. US STOCKS: In the final hour of trading, US stocks are sporting modest losses ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. The DJIA is down 0.26% at 17,577, the Nasdaq Composite down 0.17% at 5,026 and the S&P down 0.33% at 2,064.

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The index, which topped out at 2,079.74 Fri, so far remains above its 200-day moving average (2,060.41), which bodes well for further gains. However, the market wants to see a close above 2,076.61, the Aug 20 breakdown peak seen a few days before the larger China stock tumble on Aug 24. A decisive close above 2,077, if followed by a break above the Aug 18 high 2,103.47, will target a return to the life-time highs from May. At Monday's close, the index was up 0.6% ytd and down 3.0% from the life-time high of 2,134.72, seen May 20. Apple reports its 4Q earnings of $1.96/share, well above $1.88 expectations. Such should be technology-stock-bullish in Wed trading. US TSY FUTURES: Treasury futures saw a small blip higher on the softerthan-expected Aussie CPI data, with the market moving a tick higher on reasonable volume of around 1800 lots post the 5-minute period post the data release. Overall volumes remain muted ahead of the FOMC, with around 10k changing hands so far. The Aussie/US 10yr spread has compressed some 2.2bp to last trade at 58.6bp, while cash 10 richened slightly from 2.042% to 2.038%. JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have posted modest gains as weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers has raised hopes that the BOJ may ease further when the meet on Friday.




Retail sales for September fell -0.2% on expectations of a +0.4% rise their first drop in 6-months. The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 0.60% or 113.17 points at 18,890.21, while the Topix is up 0.20% or 3.07 points at 1,546.18. PRECIOUS METALS: 'Steady as she goes' activity for the precious metals in the Far East ahead of today's allimportant FOMC monetary policy announcement. The precious metals have caught a modest bid throughout the first half of the day but remained well contained within recent quiet ranges. The wires carried comments from the ECB's Coeure who reiterated the ECB's commitment to ensure its inflation targets were delivered. Meanwhile, Aussie CPI data disappointed on the downside, adding momentum to talk of a possible RBA rate cut at its November meeting. The Shanghai Composite Index is marginally softer at -0.60% . OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Dec'15 delivery last up $0.04 at $43.24 per barrel, after a $43.23 to $43.48 range in Asia today, on low volume after the market made a brief break lower on Tuesday ahead of crucial DOE/EIA inventory data Wednesday and ahead of the FOMC. It's been a slow few weeks in Asia for crude futures, and today is no different. Venezuela's President Maduro is on the wires saying he'll head to Saudi Arabia in coming days, and surely supply will be on the agenda. However, real solutions need to be made, otherwise the break from overnight will continue and the August lows look set to be tested.



 Technical Analysis BUND: (Z15) Bulls Shift Focus To 158.81-159.58 Region


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*RES 4: 159.58 High Apr 23 (continuation)
 *RES 3: 158.93 Low Apr 24 now resistance (continuation)
 *RES 2: 158.81 Weekly Bollinger band top (continuation)
 *RES 1: 158.38 High Oct 27 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.26
 
 *SUP 1: 157.79 High Oct 23 now support *SUP 2: 157.12 High Oct 15 now support *SUP 3: 156.92 High Oct 19 now support *SUP 4: 156.69 21-DMA 



 *COMMENTARY: Fresh 6 month highs again Tuesday reconfirm the bullish bias and see immediate focus shift to the 158.81-159.58 region where the weekly Bollinger band top is located. Initial support is now noted at 157.79 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure. Overall a close below the 21-DMA remains needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus to the 155.13-74 support region where the 55-DMA (155.53) and channel base are located. EUROSTOXX: Hinting At Correction, 3362.5 Support Key

*RES 4: 3554.4 High Aug 13 *RES 3: 3481.3 200-DMA
 *RES 2: 3479.4 High Aug 19
 *RES 1: 3450.6 High Oct 23 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3381.0 *SUP 1: 3374.3 Low Oct 23
 *SUP 2: 3362.5 High Oct 22 now support
 *SUP 3: 3326.9 High Sept 9 now support *SUP 4: 3294.4 High Oct 19 now support *COMMENTARY: Cracks are beginning to appear in the uptrend following the pullback from ahead of the 200-DMA with pressure having returned to 3362.5-3374.3 supports and the 100-DMA (3380.9). When combined with daily studies at O/B levels and the Bollinger top limiting follow through this could be hinting at a correction. In saying that, bears need a close below 3362.5 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and an easing of bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA (3235.2) to target 2015 lows.

Eurex Futures Market Close

Contact MNI: Clive Tillbrook – European Managing Editor + 44 207 862 7400, [email protected] MNI Sales - [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

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