Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar

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Nov 25, 2016 - today's Tokyo-fix, the pair printing a fresh 8-month high of ... US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures
A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl

Morning Briefing November 25th 2016 It will be a quiet US session, with many market players bridging the Thanksgiving Day over Black Friday into a long weekend. However, there is a full data calendar ahead of that, starting with the release of the German construction orders data at 0700GMT. That will be followed by the French consumer confidence data at 0745GMT. At 0800GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny speaks at the OeNB's EMU-Forum 2016, in Vienna. Friday welcomes the first breakdown of third quarter GDP by expenditure.

Of the analysts polled in our latest survey, all were unanimous in expecting the second edition of the Q3 GDP numbers to remain unchanged from the preliminary estimates of 0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y. . September industrial production and construction data both came in lower than their respective estimates in the preliminary Q2 GDP release, and should September services data come in weak there is a chance q/q growth could slip below our median. Elsewhere, eyes will also be on the lookout for the latest business investment figures to see whether firms have shown any signs of reduced business appetite in the wake of the EU referendum.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Further Italian data is set for release at 1000GMT, when the Italian retail sales data is published, followed by the UK November CBI distributive trades survey at 1100GMT.. There is plenty of US data to keep those at their desks interested. At 1330GMT, the US trade data and business inventors will be releases. The flash US Markit Services Index will cross the wire at 1445GMT, with thelatest NY Fed GDP Nowcast expected at 1615GMT. Late US data Bern, Switzerland, from 1715GMT..

Markets FOREX: It was a case of deja vu in the Asia-Pacific region, dollar-yen continued to march higher helped along by increase demand into today's Tokyo-fix, the pair printing a fresh 8-month high of Y113.90 before fading. Dollar-yen was last at Y113.68. Euro-dollar opened at $1.0554 and was confined to a $1.0539-$1.0570 range, last at $1.0565. Meanwhile, aussie eked out a small gain against the dollar, rising from $0.7401 to $0.7435 supported by aussie-yen demand. Aussie-dollar was last at $0.7432. US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading higher in Asia, as the market digests the feast of record setting gains earlier in the week after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday, with the market showing no signs of ingestion as yet.

Currently the Dec'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading up 3.00 points at 2,203.75, the Dec'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading up 9.75 points at 4,859.25. while the Dec'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading up 44 points at 19,096. US STOCKS: Closed for Thanksgiving Holiday US TSYS: In what is usually one of the quietest session of the year, has been thrown out the window, as fxrelated selling sees treasuries hosed from the onset in post-Thanksgiving Asian trade. It appears that cash treasury investors are playing catch up to the 6.90 handle on the CNY fix for 2-consecutive sessions, while there also has also been anticipation for Japanese real-money selling once the new month begins, as the Yen continues its downward spiral against the US Dollar.

JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have had a positive morning session as the Yen continues to spiral downwards against the US Dollar. The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 0.77% or 140.53 points at 18,473.94, while the Topix is last up 0.71% or 10.30 points at 1,470.26. GOLD: Spot gold last down $4.15 at $1177.40 per ounce, in a $1,186.990 to $1,171.20 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market again getting thumped on USD strength and surging treasury yields, despite many expecting to see a quiet session on Friday, as many US investors are still away for the Thanksgiving holiday. OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Jan'17 delivery last down $0.26 at $47.70 per barrel, after a $48.26 to $47.66 range in Asia today, with the market seeing some decent selling just now on a 2k sell order, with total volumes in the Asian session some 9k. Naturally trade has been subdued, with many US investors away for their Thanksgiving Holidays. .

Technical Analysis BUND: (Z16) Looking Heavy Again

*RES 4: 163.19 55-WMA *RES 3: 163.17 55-DMA *RES 4: 163.11 55-DMA *RES 2: 162.04 Daily Bear channel top *RES 3: 161.92 Daily Bear channel top *RES 1: 161.72 High Nov 23 *RES 2: 161.72 High Nov 23 *RES 1: 161.40 High Nov 24 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.15 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.00 *SUP 1: 160.98 Hourly support Nov 23 *SUP 2: 160.31 Low Nov 23 *SUP 1: 160.88 Low Nov 24 *SUP 3: 159.98 Low Nov 18 *SUP 2: 160.31 Low Nov 23 *SUP 4: 159.82 Low Nov 16 *SUP 3: 159.98 Low Nov 18 *SUP 4: 159.82 Low Nov 16 *COMMENTARY: The significance of the 161.72-162.04 resistance region was confirmed Wednesday with a correction *COMMENTARY: The significance of the 161.72-92 resistance lower although the lack of downside follow through is a concern for region was confirmed Wednesday with a correction lower. Bulls bears. Bulls still need a close above the channel top to shift focus still need a close above the channel top to shift focus to the to the 163.17-164.54 region where key DMAs and WMAs are 163.11-164.54 region where key DMAs and WMAs are located. located. Initial support is now noted at 160.98 with bears needing The contract is again looking a little heavy with bears now needing a close below to gain breathing room and below 160.31 to shift a close below 160.31 to end tests of the channel top and return focus lower. immediate focus to tests of 159.14 Nov lows.

EUROSTOXX: Sideways Trading Persists *RES 4: 3115.21 Weekly Bollinger band top *RES 3: 3109.61 Monthly High Oct 24 *RES 2: 3103.74 200-WMA *RES 1: 3070.79 High Nov 14 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3040.60 *SUP 1: 3006.17 100-DMA *SUP 2: 2988.84 200-DMA *SUP 3: 2959.32 Hourly support Nov 9 *SUP 4: 2937.98 Low Nov 9 *COMMENTARY: Although the index continues to find support ahead of 100 & 200-DMAs bulls still need a close above 3070.79 to return pressure to 3103.76-3109.61 where the 200-WMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-WMA to target the 100-WMA (3227.14). While 3070.79 caps bears focus on the 2892.52-2937.98 region where monthly lows are located. Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to their case.

Eurex Futures Market Close No prices today due to technical difficulties.

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