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Morning Briefing July 19th 2016 The UK takes centre stage on the data front Tuesday, with the release of the June inflation report an early feature.
The ZEW expectations index is seen at 9.5, down from June's 19.2, while the current conditions index is seen at 52.0 from 54.5.
The European calendar gets off to a slow start, with the ECB's ECB publication of the latest Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, expected at 0800GMT, the first entry.
Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1145GMT, when the latest
At 0830GMT, the UK June consumer and producer inflation data will cross the wire. The ONS will publish the May House Price Index at the same time. At 0900GMT, the EMU May construction output data and the ZEW July survey will be released.
RetailEcon-GS Store Sales data is published. At 1230GMT, the June housing starts data will be released. The pace of housing starts is expected to rise very modestly to a 1.165 million annual rate in June after falling slightly in May.
Starts were up 9.6% year/year before seasonal adjustment in May, while permits were down 3.7% and housing completions were down 3.3%. The unadjusted values of starts, permits and completions moved even higher in June 2015, so the year/year rates for those measures may see a setback with this month's data. The Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week ended July 15 is expected at 1255GMT. At 1300GMT, the IMF releases the quarterly update to the World Economic Outlook. Chief economist Maury Obstfeld holds press conference in Washington. US politics are to the fore Tuesday, as the Republican National Convention continues in Cleveland, Ohio.
Global Economic Trading Calendar
Markets FOREX: The kiwi was a major underperformer against the greenback in the Asia-Pacific region, as news hits the wires that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is proposing a further tightening of its LVR restrictions, kiwi-dollar was slammed lower from $0.7117 to $0.7014 as odds increased on an August OCR cut. Aussie-dollar was dragged lower in sympathy, dropping off an earlier high of $0.7592 to around $0.7560 before extending the move to $0.7509 as Aussie-yen supply took hold. Aussie was last at $0.7530. Dollar-yen eased from Y106.33 to Y105.95 on Japanese exporter supply, a wave of yen cross selling then saw a move to Y105.68 before recovering to around Y105.90. Meanwhile, Euro-dollar was held in a tight $1.1063 to $1.1081 range, the market in consolidation mode ahead of German ZEW survey due for release at 0900GMT. Euro-dollar was last at $1.1078. US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks posted modest gains Monday, but closed off earlier highs. The DJIA closed up 0.09% at 18,533.05, the Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.52% at 5,055.783 and the S&P 500 closed up 0.24% at 2,166.89. Friday, the DJIA and S&P 500 posted new life-time highs of 18,557.43 and 2,169.05. Today, the Nasdaq Composite rose to a new 2016 high of 5,063.530, the highest level since Dec. 30 also. At Monday's close, the S&P 500 was up 6.0% ytd.
US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading weaker after Netflix released poor earnings after the close, with other weakness in the tech shares in Asia namely Softbank, is also weighing in on markets. Currently the Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading down points 3.50 points at 2,156.50, the Jun'16 emini Nasdaq futures are trading 7.00 points at 4,601.25, while the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading down 18 points at 18,433.
JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have been resilient upon their return from their 3-day weekend, with the market posting gains despite the Yen reversing its overnight weakness, as well as sharp falls in Softbank shares, as hopes remain for more fiscal stimulus. The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 0.47% or 78.32 points at 16,576.17, while the Topix is up 0.32% or 4.28 points at 1,321.38.
US TSY FUTURES: It’s been a fairly non-descript first 2-hours for treasury futures in Asia with the market seeing a slight bid, resulting in 10yr futures up 3.5-ticks from the close. Traders are citing the late pricing of the $15 bln Teva deal for the slight rally. There have been some reasonable flows, with a 1.3k buyer pushing the market from 132-03 to 132-045. The Asian calendar will focus on the RBA minutes, to see if their easing bias remains and to see what they think of the Brexit risks, while JGB's could have an influence with some position adjustments expected ahead of the 20yr auction tomorrow. Cash markets have seen 10's trade some 1.55bp richer with total volumes on the low side with only some ~$270 mln changing hands. Currently 10yr futures are some 7.5-ticks higher than the close.
GOLD: Spot gold last up $1.75 at $1339.60 per ounce, in a $1331.40 to $1325.70 range so far this morning in Asia, so far today. It has been the developments in Turkey that have been driving price action in the last 48-hours, with the market seeing a slight bid on mild yen strength this morning. The expected range for Gold is seen between $1339 to $1324 in the coming sessions. OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Sep'16 delivery last down $0.19 at $45.76 per barrel, after a $46.96 to $46.73 range in Asia today, with the market easing overnight as the failed Turkish coup allayed supply fears. A monthly report from the EIA, published yesterday shortly before oil futures settled, showed expectations for a decline of 99,000 bpd in US shale oil output for August, from July. The fall was smaller than the 118,000 bpd cutback the EIA had forecast for July. Oil price kept bouncing back above the 100-Day moving-average, with 100-DMA of the WTI Sept'16 contract arriving at 45.86.
Technical Analysis There are no techs techs today due to technical difficulties.
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