New Housing Pipeline - Home Builders Federation

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Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk Twitter: @HomeBuildersFed. New Housing Pipeline. The flow of residential pl
New Housing Pipeline Q4 2013 report Published Feb 2014

Analysis of market conditions and prospects prepared by Glenigan.

www.hbf.co.uk

Housing Market report – Q4 2013 Report

February 2014

New Housing Pipeline The flow of residential planning approvals continued to strengthen during the final quarter of 2013, with the number of residential units granted planning approval up 18% on the third quarter and 13% up on a year ago. Overall the number of units approved during 2013 was 22% up on the previous year. Private housing approvals during the fourth quarter were 15% on the third quarter and 11% up on strong final quarter in 2012. Social housing approvals also improved; project approvals were up by 20% on both the previous quarter and against the fourth quarter of 2012. Overall Glenigan recorded the approval of around 58,700 residential units during the fourth quarter of last year; an 18% increase on the previous quarter and a 13% rise against the same period of 2012. The rise follows year-on-year growth during all of the preceding quarters of the year and the number of units approved during 2013 as a whole was 22% up on the previous year. Chart 1: Residential planning approvals (Great Britain)

80000

1400

70000

Units

1200

Projects

60000 50000

Number of units

800 40000 600 30000

Number of Projects

1000

400

20000

200

10000 0

0

Source: Glenigan

The number of private sector projects securing approval during the fourth quarter was 7% up on the preceding quarter. The number of units granted planning permission on private sector projects similarly improved; being 15% up on the three months to September 2013. Private sector approvals also rose on annual basis, the number of projects approved during the fourth quarter of 2013 was 20% higher than during the third quarter of 2012. The number of units approved also rose, being 11% up over the same period. Overall private sector approvals rose 20% during 2013 as a whole with the number of units approved increasing by 19%. The number of social housing projects approved remained firm during the fourth quarter, up 7% on the previous quarter and 35% on a year ago. The number of residential units also Home Builders Federation 1st Floor Byron House, 7-9 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1EE Tel: 0207 960 1600 F: 0207 960 1601 Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk Twitter: @HomeBuildersFed

www.hbf.co.uk

Housing Market report – Q4 2013 Report

February 2014

increased, being up 20% on both the preceding quarter and a year earlier. Overall social sector approvals rose 35% during 2013 as a whole, with the number of units approved increasing by 38%. 0.8 0.6

2010

2011

2012

2013

Change on a year earlier

0.4 0.2 0 North East

-0.2

North West

Yorkshire East West & the Midlands Midlands Humber

East of England

London

South East

South West

Wales

Scotland

-0.4 Source: Glenigan

-0.6 Chart 2: Residential planning approvals by region (No. of units)

Regionally, the Midlands and Wales saw the strongest growth in unit approvals during the final quarter of 2013; sustaining the strong rebounded during the first nine months of the year. Unit approvals also increased sharply in southern England, including London, during the fourth quarter; being 27% up on earlier and securing an 18% rise for the year as a whole. Approvals in the North of England faltered during the final quarter, being 12% down on a year ago, disrupting the rising trend in unit approvals seen over the last two years. Table 1: Number of residential units approved

2008

North of England 40,892

2009

Midlands 25,290

Southern England 102,377

England - All 168,559

Wales

Scotland

6,894

22,541

Great Britain 197,994

27,598

19,334

79,078

126,010

3,894

17,800

147,704

2010

33,714

21,389

79,040

134,143

4,134

15,836

154,113

2011

27,137

21,730

66,545

115,412

5,366

11,400

132,178

2012

38,872

19,282

82,401

140,555

4,330

12,828

157,713

2013

46,304

30,562

97,605

174,471

6,127

11,342

191,940

Change on a year earlier 2009

-33%

-24%

-23%

-25%

-44%

-21%

-25%

2010

22%

11%

0%

6%

6%

-11%

4%

2011

-20%

2%

-16%

-14%

30%

-28%

-14%

2012

43%

-11%

24%

22%

-19%

13%

19%

2013

19%

59%

18%

24%

42%

-12%

22%

N.B. Projects involving 10 or more residential units.

Home Builders Federation 1st Floor Byron House, 7-9 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1EE Tel: 0207 960 1600 F: 0207 960 1601 Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk Twitter: @HomeBuildersFed

www.hbf.co.uk

Housing Market report – Q4 2013 Report

February 2014

Notes: This report is based upon an analysis of housing projects being tracked by Glenigan and held on its database of construction projects. The following restrictions and filters apply to the analysis: 1. Projects included are for 10 or more units 2. Housing schemes are included where the development is primarily identified as being: Apartments/ flats, Bungalows, Houses/ Luxury Housing or Sheltered Housing. Key Worker Accommodation or Sheltered Housing. 3. In addition mixed used developments involving 10 or more residential units are also included in the analysis. 4. Elderly people’s homes, Hostels and student accommodation have been excluded from the analysis. 5. Approvals are recorded at the detailed planning stage. Where a project has secured outline planning approval and the detailed consent is being resolved through the approval of reserve matters the date of ‘detailed consent’ is deemed to be that of the approval of reserve matters. In the case of some projects, the reserve matters are approved piecemeal; in these circumstances the earliest approval date has been used in order to avoid double counting.

Home Builders Federation 1st Floor Byron House, 7-9 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1EE Tel: 0207 960 1600 F: 0207 960 1601 Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk Twitter: @HomeBuildersFed

www.hbf.co.uk

Housing Market report – Q4 2014 Report

February 2014

Housing Approvals The tables provide a regional breakdown of new building planning approvals since 2007 Table 2: Number of housing units securing detailed planning approval by region & country North of England Midlands Southern England North North Yorkshire & East West East of South London East West Humber Midlands Midlands England East

Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

2,366 1,315 963 875 1,082 1,235 929 2,678 2,859 1,010 624 664 696 2,032 611 1,473 1,327 1,442 2,899 1,807 2,822 1,642 2,882 2,775

10,980 3,870 3,788 2,484 3,136 2,626 2,454 2,499 4,851 3,592 3,923 4,168 4,168 2,157 3,640 2,624 3,335 3,635 3,938 6,356 4,042 4,159 6,589 5,042

5,975 3,202 1,794 3,280 1,898 1,434 3,900 3,727 3,852 2,911 2,325 2,935 3,319 2,215 2,240 1,962 4,330 2,611 3,003 4,189 5,541 4,645 3,052 3,113

3,730 3,238 3,100 2,816 1,754 2,061 2,907 2,291 2,098 2,080 2,737 2,812 2,364 2,249 1,877 3,441 2,671 2,496 1,453 2,412 3,835 3,103 3,654 4,913

3,987 3,521 3,388 1,510 2,293 710 1,487 5,831 3,548 3,203 2,173 2,738 3,565 1,692 2,073 4,469 1,769 1,930 2,338 4,213 3,767 3,663 3,938 3,689

5,217 4,733 3,059 3,394 2,423 2,474 3,000 2,408 3,085 4,268 3,141 2,528 3,393 3,530 5,310 2,363 2,756 2,376 2,536 4,796 4,432 3,607 5,544 5,380

11,397 9,271 7,826 12,110 9,871 5,248 17,778 5,247 12,667 7,017 8,193 5,373 6,860 2,692 5,177 4,498 12,923 2,836 5,838 9,762 8,279 5,300 7,095 12,737

7,904 8,307 4,375 6,431 4,263 3,538 4,133 5,124 3,483 5,260 4,865 5,466 4,733 3,576 3,908 4,275 3,968 3,864 6,235 6,607 3,510 6,415 6,861 8,478

South West

England

Wales

Scotland

Great Britain

*MAT England

6,888 4,649 3,793 3,023 3,805 2,506 3,555 3,705 4,010 3,409 3,572 2,703 4,352 5,028 4,223 2,627 3,682 3,682 5,641 4,899 4,405 4,519 4,636 6,407

58,444 42,106 32,086 35,923 30,525 21,832 40,143 33,510 40,453 32,750 31,553 29,387 33,450 25,171 29,059 27,732 36,761 24,872 33,881 45,041 40,633 37,053 44,251 52,534

2,102 1,503 1,555 1,734 987 439 1,298 1,170 1,069 1,019 771 1,275 2,099 1,320 963 984 1,376 1,131 586 1,237 1,828 1,589 1,054 1,656

6,256 8,469 3,599 4,217 3,950 2,891 3,182 7,777 4,098 5,360 4,087 2,291 2,871 2,607 2,906 3,016 3,737 2,307 2,058 4,726 2,463 1,968 3,423 3,488

66,802 52,078 37,240 41,874 35,462 25,162 44,623 42,457 45,620 39,129 36,411 32,953 38,420 29,098 32,928 31,732 41,874 28,310 36,525 51,004 44,924 40,610 48,728 57,678

215,445 206,197 186,630 168,559 140,640 120,366 128,423 126,010 135,938 146,856 138,266 134,143 127,140 119,561 117,067 115,412 118,723 118,424 123,246 140,555 144,427 156,608 166,978 174,471

*Moving Annual Total

Home Builders Federation 1st Floor Byron House, 7-9 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1EE Tel: 0207 960 1600 F: 0207 960 1601 Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk Twitter: @HomeBuildersFed

www.hbf.co.uk

Housing Market report – Q4 2013 Report

February 2014

Table 3: Number of housing projects securing detailed planning approval by region & country North of England Midlands Southern England

Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

North East

North West

Yorkshire & the Humber

East Midlands

West Midlands

East of England

London

South East

South West

England

Wales

Scotland

Great Britain

51 37 31 19 25 19 20 23 45 18 19 19 20 19 12 19 22 30 38 27 50 29 43 38

150 93 91 68 69 54 56 64 99 74 89 89 92 59 60 69 77 77 74 101 100 93 120 109

138 84 49 74 51 37 60 56 77 54 68 64 84 50 46 35 69 53 60 57 98 60 62 80

86 67 69 48 48 37 47 56 57 58 53 50 54 42 42 47 47 45 46 38 75 56 62 74

99 76 62 43 44 28 38 49 57 51 50 64 57 45 52 62 45 35 46 79 93 79 91 86

118 103 74 68 64 58 78 60 69 79 67 64 82 72 70 54 64 62 49 75 81 82 99 101

118 103 87 86 76 58 85 75 109 70 91 88 98 67 73 59 172 30 53 98 111 82 96 125

172 170 114 96 73 67 86 88 93 119 104 110 104 84 88 97 96 86 104 132 99 107 155 161

165 122 120 74 100 69 94 104 101 82 81 71 89 79 65 70 84 71 86 114 100 90 98 111

1,097 855 697 576 550 427 564 575 707 605 622 619 680 517 508 512 676 489 556 721 807 678 826 885

48 40 34 34 29 19 37 24 29 17 20 26 27 26 26 24 29 17 22 26 39 24 32 43

123 126 88 94 79 67 67 95 88 82 71 65 72 52 67 39 84 64 49 65 54 59 69 71

1,268 1,021 819 704 658 513 668 694 824 704 713 710 779 595 601 575 789 570 627 812 900 761 927 999

Home Builders Federation 1st Floor Byron House, 7-9 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1EE Tel: 0207 960 1600 F: 0207 960 1601 Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk Twitter: @HomeBuildersFed

www.hbf.co.uk

Housing Market report – Q4 2013 Report

February 2014

Social Housing Approvals This table provides a regional breakdown of new social house building planning approvals since 2007 Table 4: Number of social housing units securing detailed planning approval by region & country North of England Midlands East of Southern England England North North Yorkshire East West London South South East West & the Midlands Midlands East West Humber Q1 2007 266 3,253 657 431 335 780 2,035 1,674 576 Q2 2007 105 635 461 189 719 481 2,384 374 524 Q3 2007 446 599 344 293 210 573 2,145 1,463 744 Q4 2007 215 538 649 574 472 790 1,929 868 681 Q1 2008 768 520 860 286 555 1,150 3,227 688 969 Q2 2008 264 549 48 68 623 284 1,986 2,434 902 Q3 2008 326 316 262 157 371 1,197 2,210 1,386 487 Q4 2008 249 530 543 289 395 462 4,236 729 270 Q1 2009 292 878 587 716 796 734 3,986 1,913 689 Q2 2009 273 236 230 168 62 667 2,340 353 367 Q3 2009 241 401 463 430 454 733 5,449 482 731 Q4 2009 322 541 414 402 4,244 531 1,557 1,364 911 Q1 2010 1,118 820 848 448 567 317 6,046 1,111 793 Q2 2010 54 687 306 118 1,148 478 1,757 969 281 Q3 2010 105 507 616 83 740 325 2,491 1,941 401 Q4 2010 203 425 159 260 323 359 1,662 1,013 385 Q1 2011 168 653 705 231 285 610 1,857 948 526 Q2 2011 786 37 184 156 159 308 517 298 190 Q3 2011 53 174 38 42 303 1,322 368 363 586 Q4 2011 633 481 174 624 535 430 1,148 324 118 Q1 2012 33 658 448 123 140 296 1,717 344 554 Q2 2012 30 365 286 177 206 582 702 301 69 Q3 2012 166 515 480 147 612 33 1,093 1,114 1,453 Q4 2012 232 449 418 109 734 599 2,672 705 319 Q1 2013 246 837 940 254 795 355 2,576 665 648 Q2 2013 486 465 377 376 507 608 2,399 935 321 Q3 2013 437 603 442 146 1,166 683 1,413 1,189 340 Q4 2013 411 534 443 470 355 618 2,373 1,097 1,148 Q4 2013 % Change Q3 2013 -6% -11% 0% 222% -70% -10% 68% -8% 238% Q4 2012 77% 19% 6% 331% -52% 3% -11% 56% 260%

Home Builders Federation 1st Floor Byron House, 7-9 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1EE Tel: 0207 960 1600 F: 0207 960 1601 Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk Twitter: @HomeBuildersFed

England

Wales

Scotland

Great Britain

10,007 5,872 6,817 6,716 9,023 7,158 6,712 7,703 10,591 4,696 9,384 10,286 12,068 5,798 7,209 4,789 5,983 2,635 3,249 4,467 4,313 2,718 5,613 6,237 7,316 6,474 6,419 7,449

207 668 146 73 156 232 136 163 380 156 194 320 258 73 177 112 144 84 64 76 386 107 36 134 214 80 153 368

1,433 1,169 1,073 1,787 794 2,966 1,105 1,116 1,704 1,204 1,798 1,012 1,349 892 1,659 554 718 517 460 579 767 421 522 744 422 319 537 701

11,647 7,709 8,036 8,576 9,973 10,356 7,953 8,982 12,675 6,056 11,376 11,618 13,675 6,763 9,045 5,455 6,845 3,236 3,773 5,122 5,466 3,246 6,171 7,115 7,952 6,873 7,109 8,518

16% 19%

141% 175%

31% -6%

20% 20%

www.hbf.co.uk

Housing Market report – Q4 2013 Report

February 2014

About HBF The Home Builders Federation (HBF) is the representative body of the home building industry in England and Wales. HBF’s members’ accounts for 80% of all new homes built in England and Wales in any one year, and include companies of all sizes, ranging from multi-national, household names through regionally based businesses to small local companies. Contact us Home Builders Federation Ltd 1st Floor Byron House 7-9 St James’s Street London SW1A 1EE Tel: 020 7960 1620 Fax: 020 7960 1601 Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk

About Glenigan Glenigan provide the most up-to-date and detailed UK construction contract sales leads and analysis to help companies win more contracts. Do you spend hours looking for new business? Glenigan provides you with a constant supply of leads so you can quickly find the right projects to target. Do you struggle to find the right contacts? Glenigan provides you with the names, email addresses and phone numbers of decision makers. Do you need to track the construction market? Glenigan has comprehensive construction market data, analysis, forecasts and league tables. Use our custom research and analysis services to evaluate specific market opportunities and inform your strategic decisions. Website: www.glenigan.com Tel: 01202 432121 Email: [email protected]

Home Builders Federation 1st Floor Byron House, 7-9 St James’s Street, London SW1A 1EE Tel: 0207 960 1600 F: 0207 960 1601 Email: [email protected] Website: www.hbf.co.uk Twitter: @HomeBuildersFed

www.hbf.co.uk