May 4, 2016 - Markit Eurozone Composite PMI® â final data. Includes ... 53.1 (Flash 53.2, March 53.1). The rate of ..
News Release Purchasing Managers’ Index® MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION EMBARGOED UNTIL: 1000 (CEST) / 0800 (UTC) May 4 2016
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI – final data ®
Includes Markit Eurozone Services PMI®
Eurozone remains in low gear at start of second quarter Data collected 12-26 April
Markit Eurozone PMI and GDP
Final Eurozone Composite Output Index: 53.0 (Flash 53.0, March 53.1) Final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index: 53.1 (Flash 53.2, March 53.1) The rate of eurozone economic expansion remained only modest in April. Output rose at a pace slightly below the average seen in the opening quarter of the year, with only moderate growth seen in both the manufacturing and service sectors. ®
The final Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index posted 53.0 in April. This reading was a pip below March’s 53.1 and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. The index has now signalled expansion in each of the past 34 months. Growth of incoming new business accelerated to a three-month high in April, but remained below the average seen over last year. Higher order inflows led to a slight accumulation in backlogs of work and encouraged firms to take on more staff. The ‘big-four’ nations all reported expansions of economic activity in April, with Spain seeing the steepest rate of increase. Output growth in Spain accelerated to a three-month high, despite a slower rate of increase for new business. Italy also saw a modest improvement in its rate of output expansion. Germany posted a further solid increase in economic activity, although the pace of expansion disappointed by easing to an 11-month low. The news on the demand front was slightly more positive, with inflows of new work rising at a mildly stronger pace. The French economy expanded for the first time in three months in April, although the rate of growth was barely above the stagnation mark. A modest Page 1 of 4
Nations ranked by output growth* (Apr.) Spain Germany Italy France
55.2 53.6 (flash: 53.8) 53.1 50.2 (flash: 50.5)
3-month high 11-month low 2-month high 3-month high
*Composite Output PMI against GDP comparisons for Germany, France, Italy and Spain are included on page 3 of this press release. **Ireland Composite PMI data are published on May 5.
expansion of service sector activity offset a solid contraction in manufacturing production. Eurozone employment increased for the eighteenth month in a row during April, with jobs growth improving at manufacturers and service providers alike. Faster rates of increase were signalled in both Germany and Italy. Spain saw a further expansion of workforce levels, albeit weaker than in March. Marginal job creation was registered in France following the prior month’s decline. April data signalled a marginal increase in average input prices for the first time in four months. Service sector cost inflation accelerated while manufacturing purchase prices fell to the least marked extent in the year so far. In contrast, the survey’s output price gauge moved
© Markit 2016
lower in April, to signal a mildly faster rate of deflation. Only Germany reported an increase in output charges. France, Italy and Spain all reported reduced selling prices, mainly in response to highly competitive market conditions. Services:
during April. However, it remained subdued in comparison to its long-run survey average. Rates of increase accelerated in Germany and Italy, but slowed in France and Spain. Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:
The eurozone service sector recorded further steady but modest growth of business activity at the start of the second quarter. At 53.1 in April, unchanged from March, the final Eurozone Services Business Activity Index remained above the 50.0 no-change mark for the thirty-third successive month.
“The final PMI data confirm the earlier flash estimate that the eurozone economy grew at a steady but unspectacular annual rate of 1.5% at the start of the second quarter. Prices charged also continued to fall, indicating that growth is being partly fuelled by price discounting.
The rate of growth signalled was one of the weakest signalled since the start of last year and a tick below its earlier flash estimate. There was brighter news on the outlook for the sector, however. Growth of new orders and employment both accelerated and business confidence† edged up to a three-month high.
“However, while still tepid, the sustained eurozone growth contrasts with slowdowns in the US and UK, suggesting the ECB’s more aggressive stimulus is helping to drive a steady recovery. The survey numbers also indicate that domestic demand within the eurozone is picking up which, alongside the weaker currency, is helping to offset sluggish external demand.
All four of the nations for which April data are available (Ireland data are published on May 5) reported higher levels of business activity and new orders. The sharpest rates of output growth were registered by Spain and Germany, albeit slower than in the previous month in both cases. France returned to expansion following back-to-back contractions in February and March, while growth in Italy improved from March’s low. However, there were signs that most nations were sustaining growth of new business through price discounting. Euro area service charges fell for the seventh straight month, with Germany the only one of the ‘big-four’ nations to report an increase. Service sector employment increased in April, extending the current sequence of jobs growth to one-and-a-half years. Staffing levels were raised further in Germany, Italy and Spain, although only Italy registered a steeper pace of expansion.
“Further comfort can be drawn from the upturn in service sector business optimism for the year ahead, which has edged up since the start of the year to signal one of the highest degrees of sentiment seen over the past five years. The encouraging picture is by no means universal, however. While business confidence hit threemonth highs in Germany and Italy and a four-month high in Spain, optimism moderated in France, suggesting all is not well in the region’s secondlargest economy. ” -Ends-
** Click here for further details of using the PMI to measure GDP in advance. † for business confidence, companies are asked whether they expect levels of business activity in one year’s time to be higher, the same or lower than the current month.
France saw employment increase following a reduction in the prior month. Although the rate of job creation at French service providers was only marginal, it was still the fastest since June 2015. The rate of input cost inflation at eurozone service providers was the joint-highest in the year-to-date Page 2 of 4
© Markit 2016
Italy
France
PMI Output / Business Activity sa, 50 = no change
PMI Output / Business Activity sa, 50 = no change
GDP, %q/q
68
GDP, %q/q
65
2.0
2.0
1.5
60
62
1.0
1.0
55
0.5
56
0.0
50
50
0.0
-0.5 45
-1.0
44 -1.0
PMI
40
-1.5
GDP
38
-2.0 PMI
GDP
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-2.5 2005
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-2.0 2005
32
2006
35
Source: Markit, ISTAT GDP = gross domestic product
Source: Markit, INSEE GDP = gross domestic product
Spain
Germany
PMI Output / Business Activity sa, 50 = no change PMI Output / Business Activity sa, 50 = no change
GDP, %q/q
70
GDP, %q/q
65
1.5
60
1.0
3.0
65
2.0 55
60 1.0
0.0
50
0.0
45
-1.0
40
-2.0
35
PMI
GDP
45 -0.5 -1.0
35
PMI
Source: Markit, FSO. GDP = gross domestic product
Page 3 of 4
Source: Markit, INE. GDP = gross domestic product
© Markit 2016
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-2.0
2008
-4.0
2007
-1.5
25
2006
30
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
25
-3.0
2005
30
GDP
2016
40
0.5
50
2015
55
For further information, please contact: Markit Chris Williamson, Chief Economist Telephone +44-20-7260-2329 Mobile +44-779-5555-061 Email
[email protected]
Rob Dobson, Senior Economist Telephone +44-1491-461-095 Mobile +44-7826-913-863 Email
[email protected]
Joanna Vickers, Corporate Communications Telephone +44 207 260 2234 Email
[email protected] Notes to Editors: The Eurozone Composite PMI® (Purchasing Managers' Index®) is produced by Markit and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of around 5,000 manufacturing and services firms. National manufacturing data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. National services data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland. The Eurozone Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is produced by Markit and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of around 2,000 private service sector firms. National data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland. These countries together account for an estimated 78% of eurozone private sector services output. The final Eurozone Composite PMI and Services PMI follows on from the flash estimate which is released a week earlier and is typically based on approximately 75%–85% of total PMI survey responses each month. The April composite flash was based on 85% of the replies used in the final data. The April services flash was based on 78% of the replies used in the final data. Data were collected 12-26 April. The average differences between the flash and final PMI index values (final minus flash) since comparisons were first available in January 2006 are as follows (differences in absolute terms provide the better indication of true variation while average differences provide a better indication of any bias): Average Average difference Index difference in absolute terms Eurozone Composite Output PMI®
0.0
0.2
Eurozone Services Business Activity PMI
0.0
0.3
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey methodology has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies. Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. Historical data relating to the underlying (unadjusted) numbers, first published seasonally adjusted series and subsequently revised data are available to subscribers from Markit. Please contact
[email protected]. About Markit Markit is a leading global diversified provider of financial information services. We provide products that enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve operational efficiency. Our customers include banks, hedge funds, asset managers, central banks, regulators, auditors, fund administrators and insurance companies. Founded in 2003, we employ approximately 4,000 people in 11 countries. Markit shares are listed on Nasdaq under the symbol MRKT. For more information, please see www.markit.com. About PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) surveys are now available for over 30 countries and also for key regions including the eurozone. They are the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics.
The intellectual property rights to the Eurozone Composite and Services PMI® provided herein are owned by or licensed to Markit. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. Markit shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. Purchasing Managers' Index® and PMI® are either registered trade marks of Markit Economics Limited or licensed to Markit Economics Limited. Markit is a registered trade mark of Markit Group Limited.
Page 4 of 4
© Markit 2016
