Apr 1, 2015 - Eurozone PMI at ten-month high as growth accelerates in .... European Central Bank) use the data to help m
News Release Purchasing Managers’ Index® MARKET SENSITIVE INFORMATION EMBARGOED UNTIL: 09:00 (UK Time), 1 April 2015
Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – final data ®
Eurozone PMI at ten-month high as growth accelerates in Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands ®
Data collected 12-24 March
Countries ranked by Manufacturing PMI : March
Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 in March (Flash: 51.9, February Final: 51.0)
Faster growth drives job creation higher
Weaker euro leads to improved new export order inflows and increased input costs ®
Manufacturing PMI (overall business conditions)
Ireland Spain Italy Germany Netherlands Greece France Austria
56.8 54.3 53.3 52.8 (flash 52.4) 52.5 48.9 48.8 (flash 48.2) 47.7
2-month low 2-month high 11-month high 11-month high 2-month high 3-month high 2-month high 4-month low
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, sa, 50 = no change Manufacturing PMI, sa, 50 = no change
65
65
60
Germany
60 France
55 55
Italy
50 Spain
50
45
Netherlands
45
40 35
40
30
35
Austria Ireland
Source: Markit.
2015
2014
2013
2012
Source: Markit.
The stand-out performers in March were Ireland and Spain, who stayed in first and second places
Eurostat, 3m/3m % change 3
60
2 1
55
0
50
-1 45 -2 40
-3
35
-4
Industrial Production (excluding construction)
30
-5 2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-6
2000
25
1999
At 52.2 in March, up from 51.0 in February, the final seasonally adjusted Eurozone Manufacturing ® PMI was above its earlier flash estimate of 51.9. The PMI currently stands at its highest level for ten months and has remained in expansion territory since July 2013.
Eurozone PMI Output Index, sa, 50 = no change 65
1998
Growth of eurozone manufacturing production accelerated to a ten-month high in March, underpinned by the fastest expansion of incoming new business since April of last year. With the performance of the sector strengthening further, companies raised employment at the quickest pace for over three-and-a-half years.
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2011
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Greece
Sources: Markit, Eurostat
respectively in the PMI league rankings. Improved growth was meanwhile seen in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Rates of increase in German production and new orders both surged to
© Markit Economics Limited 2015
11-month records, supported by the steepest gain in new export business since July 2014. Italy also registered solid and accelerated expansions of new work and output. For the Netherlands, however, growth of both variables was slightly slower than in February. The other nations covered by the survey – France, Greece and Austria – all saw their PMI readings remain below the neutral 50.0 mark. On a mildly positive note, France and Greece at least saw their respective rates of contraction ease over the month. Austria, in contrast, sank back to the bottom of the PMI league table. March saw the sharpest increase in new export orders* since April 2014, with growth registered in Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Ireland. Companies reported that the weaker euro was the main factor driving new export orders higher. Manufacturing employment rose for the seventh successive month in March. The rate of job creation accelerated to a 43-month record. Workforce numbers were increased in Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Ireland and Greece, but lowered in France and Austria. The increase in staffing levels mainly reflected the ongoing improvement in the manufacturing sector, which also led to some reports that growth of new business was testing capacity at a number of firms. This led to a moderate accumulation of outstanding work for the first time in 11 months.
Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: “The final PMI reading signalled slightly stronger growth of the manufacturing economy than the preliminary reading, adding further to signs that the eurozone economy is reviving after last year’s slowdown. “Producers are benefitting from the weaker euro, which has had the dual effect of boosting competitiveness in export markets as well as making competing imports more expensive in the home markets. “New orders are consequently showing the best growth for nearly a year, and the fact that manufacturers are boosting their payroll numbers at the fastest rate for three-and-a half years indicates optimism that the upturn will be sustained in coming months. “Rising demand is also helping firms and their suppliers to re-establish some pricing power. Factory input prices rose for the first time in seven months and selling prices were broadly stable, providing encouraging news that deflationary forces are easing. “This is still a fledgling recovery, however, and the overall rate of expansion remains only modest. Importantly, manufacturing is still in decline in France, Greece and Austria, acting as drags on the region’s revival.”
Cost pressures at eurozone manufacturers picked up in March, with input prices posting a modest gain following declines in the prior six months. Although the increase in average purchase prices was only mild, it nonetheless reflected a sharp movement in the trend compared to the prior month. This was reflected in a six-point gain in the Input Prices Index, one of the largest upward shifts in its level in the series history. Some companies linked the increase in input costs to higher import prices due to a weaker euro. Meanwhile, charges fell at the slowest rate in the current seven-month sequence of reductions. *Including intra-eurozone trade.
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For further information, please contact: Chris Williamson, Chief Economist Telephone +44-20-7260-2329 Mobile +44-779-5555-061 Email
[email protected]
Rob Dobson, Senior Economist Telephone +44-1491-461-095 Mobile +44-7826-913-863 Email
[email protected]
Joanna Vickers, Corporate Communications Telephone +44 207 260 2234 Email
[email protected] Note to Editors: The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® (Purchasing Managers' Index®) is produced by Markit and is based on original survey data collected from a representative panel of around 3,000 manufacturing firms. National data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. These countries together account for an estimated 89% of Eurozone manufacturing activity. The final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI follows on from the flash estimate which is released a week earlier and is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month. The March 2015 flash was based on 87% of the replies used in the final data. The average differences between the flash and final PMI index values (final minus flash) since comparisons were first available in January 2006 are as follows (differences in absolute terms provide the better indication of true variation while average differences provide a better indication of any bias): Index Eurozone Manufacturing PMI®
Average difference
Average difference in absolute terms
0.0
0.2
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey methodology has developed an outstanding reputation for providing the most up-to-date possible indication of what is really happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. The indices are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries (including the European Central Bank) use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies. Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. Historical data relating to the underlying (unadjusted) numbers, first published seasonally adjusted series and revised data are available to subscribers from Markit. Please contact
[email protected]. About Markit Markit is a leading global diversified provider of financial information services. We provide products that enhance transparency, reduce risk and improve operational efficiency. Our customers include banks, hedge funds, asset managers, central banks, regulators, auditors, fund administrators and insurance companies. Founded in 2003, we employ over 3,500 people in 10 countries. Markit shares are listed on Nasdaq under the symbol MRKT. For more information, please see www.markit.com. About PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI®) surveys are now available for 32 countries and also for key regions including the Eurozone. They are the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics. The intellectual property rights to the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® provided herein are owned by or licensed to Markit Economics Limited. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing, transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. Markit shall not have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the data. Purchasing Managers' Index® and PMI® are either registered trade marks of Markit Economics Limited or licensed to Markit Economics Limited. Markit is a registered trade mark of Markit Group Limited.
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