NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update

NOAA Climate Science & Services Monthly Climate Update Jake Crouch Climate Scientist, Climate Monitoring Branch, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

Tim Brown Director, Western Regional Climate Center

Dan Collins Meteorologist & Seasonal Forecaster , NOAA Climate Prediction Center August 2018

Monthly Climate Webinar

May 2018

Temperature: 75.5°F, +1.9°F, tied as the 11th warmest July on record Precipitation: 2.80”, +0.02”, near median July Temperature Percentiles July 2018 Period: 1895-2018 (124 years)

• Above-average temperatures in the West, South, and Northeast o CA had its warmest July and month on record • Below-average conditions in central and southeastern US • Warm daily records outpaced cold records: 5-to-1 August 2018


Precipitation Percentiles July 2018 Period: 1895-2018 (124 years)

• Above-average precipitation in the Southwest, Northern Plains, and East Coast o PA had its wettest July on record

• Below-average precipitation in the Northwest, Central Rockies and parts of the Midwest and South • Large and destructive wildfires burned across the West 2

Temperature: 53.1°F, +1.9°F, 11th warmest year to date Temperature Percentiles Jan-Jul 2018 Period: 1895-2017 (124 years)

Contiguous U.S. Jan-Jul Temperatures 1895-2018 Temperature Departure from 20th Century Average (F)

5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4

-5 1895

• • • •

1915

1935

1955

1975

1995

2015

Large swings in temperature month to month during 2018 east of the Rockies January-July was warmer than average for the West and much of the East. AZ and NM record warm. Below-average conditions in the north-central United States 25th consecutive year with Jan-July temperature above 20th century average August 2018


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36.2% (

of Contiguous U.S. in Drought 6.5 percentage points since early July)

• Improvement: Drought improved in the Northern Plains, High Plains, and Southwest • Degradation: Drought expanded in the West, Texas, Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes • Outside CONUS: Drought expanded in Hawaii and Puerto Rico was abnormally dry

August 2018


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August – November Highlights •

Warmer and drier than normal

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N-NE/Offshore wind events less common in August, returning September – October

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Below normal amount of lightning in western areas and slightly below normal in eastern areas

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Fuels of all size classes drier than normal and close to record values

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Abundant load of fine fuels and brush at mid and lower elevations

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Above normal large fire potential most areas in August

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E/NE areas back to normal in Sept/Oct. Otherwise, continued above normal

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All areas normal in November

August 2018


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UPDATE Images & TEXT –

August 2018


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July Overnight Low Temperatures in California Over Time (1895–2018)


August 2018


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California Regional Dead Fuel Moisture Carr fire

August 2018


Mendocino complex

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August 2018


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August 2018


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• Sea surface temperatures – Near average SSTs across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean – Above normal SSTs in the western tropical Pacific Ocean – Above normal subsurface temperatures persist and are near to the surface in the eastern Pacific – Away from the equator, there are above normal SSTs across the northern Pacific – ENSO neutral conditions continued during last month

• ENSO forecast – ENSO neutral is likely to give way to El Niño in autumn – The chances of El Niño increase to about 70% in the winter August 2018


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September Average Temperature Probability

August 2018


September Total Precipitation Probability

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Average Temperature Probability

August 2018


Total Precipitation Probability

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August 2018


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For More Information TODAY’S PRESENTATION: • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings

NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information: www.ncdc.noaa.gov

• Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ • Dates for upcoming reports: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/monthly-releases

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov U.S. Drought Monitor: http://drought.gov Climate Portal: www.climate.gov Western Regional Climate Center: https://wrcc.dri.edu NOAA Media Contacts: • [email protected] ,301-713-0214, (NOAA Communications)

August 2018


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