Dec 10, 2012 - 104. 106. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012. Growth firming in the United States. We
Paris, 10 December 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release
Composite leading indicators point to diverging patterns across major economies Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend, show diverging patterns across major economies. The CLIS for Canada, Japan, Russia, Germany, France and the Euro Area as a whole continue to point to weak growth. In Brazil tentative signs have emerged that the positive growth momentum predicted in recent months is dissipating. In China and Italy, on the other hand, signs of turning points in the cycle are beginning to emerge. Tentative signs of a stabilisation in growth have also emerged in India. In the United States and the United Kingdom, where consumer confidence picked up strongly last month, the CLI continues to point to economic growth firming. Stabilising growth in the OECD area
Stabilising growth in China 106
104
104
102
102
100
100 98
98
96
96
94
94
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Growth firming in the United States
Weak growth in the Euro area
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Methodological Notes: The CLI methodological notes are available at: www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/44728410.pdf Watch our video explaining the CLIs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UY8iPW0GVAo Access data: CLI data is available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI Contacts: For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail
[email protected]. For technical questions contact
[email protected] Next release: 14 January 2013
Paris, 10 December 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Weak growth in Japan
Weak growth in France
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Weak growth in Germany
Stabilising growth in Italy
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Growth firming in the United Kingdom
Weak growth in Brazil
104
106
102
104 102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Weak growth in Canada
Tentative signs of stabilising growth in India
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
98
96
96
94
94
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Weak growth in Russia 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.
Paris, 10 December 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators** Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted
Month on Month change
Year on Year change
(long term average =100)
(%)
(%)
2012
2012 Sep
Oct
Growth cycle outlook
Latest month
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Jun
Jul
Aug
OECD Area
100.3
100.2
100.2
100.2
100.2
-0.07
-0.06
-0.03
0.00
0.02
0.14
Euro Area
99.6
99.5
99.4
99.4
99.3
-0.10
-0.11
-0.10
-0.07
-0.05
-0.88
weak growth
Major Five Asia*
99.4
99.3
99.3
99.3
99.3
-0.10
-0.08
-0.04
0.00
0.03
-0.73
stabilising growth
Major Seven
100.3
100.3
100.2
100.3
100.3
-0.08
-0.06
-0.02
0.02
0.04
0.22
stabilising growth
Canada
99.8
99.8
99.7
99.7
99.6
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.19
weak growth
France
99.7
99.6
99.5
99.5
99.4
-0.05
-0.07
-0.08
-0.08
-0.06
-0.89
weak growth
Japan
100.5
100.4
100.3
100.2
100.2
-0.13
-0.12
-0.09
-0.06
-0.04
-0.18
weak growth
Germany
99.5
99.2
99.0
98.8
98.7
-0.24
-0.26
-0.24
-0.19
-0.12
-1.47
weak growth
Italy
99.0
98.9
98.9
99.0
99.0
-0.11
-0.05
-0.01
0.03
0.06
-1.54
stabilising growth
stabilising growth
United Kingdom
99.7
99.9
100.1
100.3
100.5
0.12
0.16
0.19
0.22
0.23
1.14
growth firming
United States
100.8
100.7
100.8
100.8
100.9
-0.06
-0.03
0.02
0.08
0.09
0.96
growth firming
Brazil
99.3
99.4
99.4
99.4
99.3
0.12
0.08
0.01
-0.04
-0.11
0.91
weak growth
China
99.5
99.5
99.5
99.5
99.6
-0.03
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.03
-0.80
stabilising growth
India
97.8
97.5
97.3
97.2
97.3
-0.33
-0.31
-0.21
-0.06
0.02
-1.87
stabilising growth
Russia
99.9
99.4
99.2
99.1
99.1
-0.61
-0.42
-0.21
-0.10
-0.05
-2.84
weak growth
* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. **CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI