OECD COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATORS

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Dec 10, 2012 - 104. 106. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012. Growth firming in the United States. We
Paris, 10 December 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release

Composite leading indicators point to diverging patterns across major economies Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity relative to trend, show diverging patterns across major economies. The CLIS for Canada, Japan, Russia, Germany, France and the Euro Area as a whole continue to point to weak growth. In Brazil tentative signs have emerged that the positive growth momentum predicted in recent months is dissipating. In China and Italy, on the other hand, signs of turning points in the cycle are beginning to emerge. Tentative signs of a stabilisation in growth have also emerged in India. In the United States and the United Kingdom, where consumer confidence picked up strongly last month, the CLI continues to point to economic growth firming. Stabilising growth in the OECD area

Stabilising growth in China 106

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100 98

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96

94

94

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Growth firming in the United States

Weak growth in the Euro area

104

104

102

102

100

100

98

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94

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.

Methodological Notes: The CLI methodological notes are available at: www.oecd.org/std/leadingindicatorsandtendencysurveys/44728410.pdf Watch our video explaining the CLIs: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UY8iPW0GVAo Access data: CLI data is available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI Contacts: For further information journalists are invited to contact the OECD's Media Relations Division on (33) 1 45 24 97 00 or e-mail [email protected]. For technical questions contact [email protected] Next release: 14 January 2013

Paris, 10 December 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Weak growth in Japan

Weak growth in France

104

104

102

102

100

100

98

98

96

96

94

94

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Weak growth in Germany

Stabilising growth in Italy

104

104

102

102

100

100

98

98

96

96

94

94

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Growth firming in the United Kingdom

Weak growth in Brazil

104

106

102

104 102

100

100

98

98

96

96

94

94

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Weak growth in Canada

Tentative signs of stabilising growth in India

104

104

102

102

100

100

98

98

96

96

94

94

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

92 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Weak growth in Russia 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 88 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to long-term trend by approximately six months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the long-term trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.

Paris, 10 December 2012 OECD Composite Leading Indicators News Release Table 1: Composite Leading Indicators** Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted

Month on Month change

Year on Year change

(long term average =100)

(%)

(%)

2012

2012 Sep

Oct

Growth cycle outlook

Latest month

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Jun

Jul

Aug

OECD Area

100.3

100.2

100.2

100.2

100.2

-0.07

-0.06

-0.03

0.00

0.02

0.14

Euro Area

99.6

99.5

99.4

99.4

99.3

-0.10

-0.11

-0.10

-0.07

-0.05

-0.88

weak growth

Major Five Asia*

99.4

99.3

99.3

99.3

99.3

-0.10

-0.08

-0.04

0.00

0.03

-0.73

stabilising growth

Major Seven

100.3

100.3

100.2

100.3

100.3

-0.08

-0.06

-0.02

0.02

0.04

0.22

stabilising growth

Canada

99.8

99.8

99.7

99.7

99.6

-0.04

-0.04

-0.04

-0.04

-0.06

-0.19

weak growth

France

99.7

99.6

99.5

99.5

99.4

-0.05

-0.07

-0.08

-0.08

-0.06

-0.89

weak growth

Japan

100.5

100.4

100.3

100.2

100.2

-0.13

-0.12

-0.09

-0.06

-0.04

-0.18

weak growth

Germany

99.5

99.2

99.0

98.8

98.7

-0.24

-0.26

-0.24

-0.19

-0.12

-1.47

weak growth

Italy

99.0

98.9

98.9

99.0

99.0

-0.11

-0.05

-0.01

0.03

0.06

-1.54

stabilising growth

stabilising growth

United Kingdom

99.7

99.9

100.1

100.3

100.5

0.12

0.16

0.19

0.22

0.23

1.14

growth firming

United States

100.8

100.7

100.8

100.8

100.9

-0.06

-0.03

0.02

0.08

0.09

0.96

growth firming

Brazil

99.3

99.4

99.4

99.4

99.3

0.12

0.08

0.01

-0.04

-0.11

0.91

weak growth

China

99.5

99.5

99.5

99.5

99.6

-0.03

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.03

-0.80

stabilising growth

India

97.8

97.5

97.3

97.2

97.3

-0.33

-0.31

-0.21

-0.06

0.02

-1.87

stabilising growth

Russia

99.9

99.4

99.2

99.1

99.1

-0.61

-0.42

-0.21

-0.10

-0.05

-2.84

weak growth

* China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. **CLI data for 33 OECD member countries and 6 OECD non-member economies are available at: http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/default.aspx?datasetcode=MEI_CLI